The ever changing spec for beef.

Limestone Cowboy

Where do ye see it going over the next few years. Is bull beef going to remain a thing of the past or is there a chance it will come back into favour again in a few years time. Will the housewife continue to demand a smaller carcass so her steaks aren't too big. It's like looking into a crystal ball for me but maybe some of the more knowledgeable people on here might have a better insight into it. I'm a bit sceptical that what the factory's are looking for now is the same product they will be looking for in 4 or 5 years time for no other reason than looking back at the way the specs have changed over the last few years. Only a year or two back teagasc and all the farming press were ramming bull beef down our necks and that's a dead duck at the moment. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Ps, can we leave the IFA outta this one

I said

It all depends on demand at the moment overage aren't been penalised it doesn't matter the grid is used and only used to control the price finishers get the housewife still pays the same.processors and supermarkets make more money that way simple economics.So specs will change again only if there profit margins are under threat by heaven forbid they might have to pay more to the beef finisher.

Muckit

We should leave the high meal finishing systems to the US and Europe.

'Concentrate' (pun intended) on grass.... and keeping bag manure and contractor charges in check.

towzer2010

Muckit wrote: »

We should leave the high meal finishing systems to the US and Europe.

'Concentrate' (pun intended) on grass.... and keeping bag manure and contractor charges in check.

And leading on from that wouldn't it be great if our grass fed beef could finally be promoted properly as a premium product in more lucrative markets.

Agree with you limestone about factories. They will move the goal posts again.

Could the producer groups make a difference when they come in?

Count Mondego

Don't be too eager to change your system. This is the first bad year for prices in the last 4 years you could say. Primarily due to oversupply. Next year should see a drop in kill and an increase in prices/change in spec. I can see over the last 30 years farmers that kept chopping and changing from beef to sheep, tillage and spuds. They miss the boat the whole time.

Limestone Cowboy

Count Mondego wrote: »

Don't be too eager to change your system. This is the first bad year for prices in the last 4 years you could say. Primarily due to oversupply. Next year should see a drop in kill and an increase in prices/change in spec. I can see over the last 30 years farmers that kept chopping and changing from beef to sheep, tillage and spuds. They miss the boat the whole time.

I have no intention of straying too much at all, Just going to try and do what I'm already doing a bit better. Serious amount of doom and gloom surrounding beef at the moment though and a lot of lads jumping ship in the next year or two to go milking if reading here is anything to go by.

simx

Count Mondego wrote: »

Don't be too eager to change your system. This is the first bad year for prices in the last 4 years you could say. Primarily due to oversupply. Next year should see a drop in kill and an increase in prices/change in spec. I can see over the last 30 years farmers that kept chopping and changing from beef to sheep, tillage and spuds. They miss the boat the whole time.

As the saying goes when every man is running in one direction just turn and walk the opposite way

caseman

simx wrote: »

As the saying goes when every man is running in one direction just turn and walk the opposite way

The writing is an the the wall for a long time.
Wish i was wrong but you can bury your head in the sand and hope it dose'nt happen.

Mad4simmental

caseman wrote: »

The writing is an the the wall for a long time.
Wish i was wrong but you can bury your head in the sand and hope it dose'nt happen.

If everyone knew what was going to happen we would be rich. No one knows what's going to happen. We all work for big multinational company's that dictate how things are run. That's before wether that can swing years one way or another.
Fuel costs, wars ect.

I know Notting about dairy and have no intrest in dairy(no offence ment it's just me) we all must control what we can ie costs.

I'd like to think im a good young beef farmer with loads of intrest and a big hunger to learn each and every day. Personally id prefer to be a good beef farmer makeing a bit than a bad dairy farmer doing alright.

Base price

Limestone Cowboy wrote: »

Where do ye see it going over the next few years.

To be honest - the same way as it has been going over the last few decades since I have started farming. The tail wags the dog, as in the factories dictate the prices. We are price takers and always have been.
I am highly sceptible regarding the recent push on beef producer groups especially since our Minster is actively promoting same.
My instinct is to keep away from same and row my own boat.

Count Mondego

I know a fella from Doolin who was breeding angus stock and selling direct from farmers markets etc. Used get a butcher in Ennis to do the processing for him. All he needed was a refrigerated van and do his rounds. As he was in the burren like yourself he could label it conservation beef. He did well out of it. There's not a big enough market for everyone, but there is for a few. Smart guy, he sold by the box mix of cuts to sell the proportions right.

Count Mondego

caseman wrote: »

The writing is an the the wall for a long time.
Wish i was wrong but you can bury your head in the sand and hope it doesn't happen.

I did dairy all my life until the old lad moved to beef about eight years ago. In my opinion this is the worst time in the last 30 years to get into dairy. Not wishing it, but could all crash down, in the next 3 years. Bad signs from UK where they're currently paid below the cost of production.

TUBBY

Count Mondego wrote: »

I did dairy all my life until the old lad moved to beef about eight years ago. In my opinion this is the worst time in the last 30 years to get into dairy. Not wishing it, but could all crash down, in the next 3 years. Bad signs from UK where they're currently paid below the cost of production.

i agree. We talk about burying our head in sand etc and about simple supply and demand in beef.
this year oversupply=bad price. Simple economics.
however the same applies to every walk of life.

current price good for milk. Big push from beef to milk + end of quota= more milk= price drop. It seems like the only way it can go to me or am i over simplifying it.

rangler1

towzer2010 wrote: »

And leading on from that wouldn't it be great if our grass fed beef could finally be promoted properly as a premium product in more lucrative markets.

Agree with you limestone about factories. They will move the goal posts again.

Could the producer groups make a difference when they come in?

I wouldn't be putting too much hope in producer groups, factories just divide them up and don't compete.
Even though our lamb group supplies 30000 lambs, no other factory will tender for them

onyerbikepat

This phrase about farmers being ' Price Takers' really annoys me. Everyone in every industry is a price taker. Try running a pub, groceries where your prices are far higher than anyone else. What's the statistic, 9 out of 10 start up businesses fail. When can you remember 9 out of 10 farmers going bust.
How many farmers had to immigrate to Australia or wherever when the Celtic Tiger went bust. No one is holding a gun to your head. It's tough in every business.

Cavanjack

TUBBY wrote: »

i agree. We talk about burying our head in sand etc and about simple supply and demand in beef.
this year oversupply=bad price. Simple economics.
however the same applies to every walk of life.

current price good for milk. Big push from beef to milk + end of quota= more milk= price drop. It seems like the only way it can go to me or am i over simplifying it.

The wee sup of extra milk we produce here next year is not going to effect milk price IMO. We only produce 1% of the worlds milk. Grain price and US milk production is what will effect the price of milk

Reggie.

Mad4simmental wrote: »

If everyone knew what was going to happen we would be rich. No one knows what's going to happen. We all work for big multinational company's that dictate how things are run. That's before wether that can swing years one way or another.
Fuel costs, wars ect.

I know Notting about dairy and have no intrest in dairy(no offence ment it's just me) we all must control what we can ie costs.

I'd like to think im a good young beef farmer with loads of intrest and a big hunger to learn each and every day. Personally id prefer to be a good beef farmer makeing a bit than a bad dairy farmer doing alright.

Well said

Limestone Cowboy

Count Mondego wrote: »

I know a fella from Doolin who was breeding angus stock and selling direct from farmers markets etc. Used get a butcher in Ennis to do the processing for him. All he needed was a refrigerated van and do his rounds. As he was in the burren like yourself he could label it conservation beef. He did well out of it. There's not a big enough market for everyone, but there is for a few. Smart guy, he sold by the box mix of cuts to sell the proportions right.

I know the lad alright I'd say, SN his initials? Not sure it'd be the way for me but often thought of doing similar at the same time. Have a lot more interest in actually farming than selling and marketing that kind of a business.

Farmer Pudsey

Count Mondego wrote: »

I did dairy all my life until the old lad moved to beef about eight years ago. In my opinion this is the worst time in the last 30 years to get into dairy. Not wishing it, but could all crash down, in the next 3 years. Bad signs from UK where they're currently paid below the cost of production.

UK milk producers are losing money at 30c/L or thereabouts. this is because they have moved in intensive milk production. There is liquid milk and everyone answer to lower prices is to expand. At 30c/L efficient Irish farmers are making money. And with higher solids etc that the UK they are even at a higher price often 3-4 above this base compared to UK price. Yes there will be up and downs in milk however unless grain falls below 100/ton our grass based system is a winner.

On beef there will be a continued push to get carcasses in the 280-330Kg bracket. The processor will continual to push this, however for the next 2-3 years as supply is tight processors will be less choosy. However they may well pay a premium for these cattle that match UK market spec.

Bull will have to come back into the equation for winter finishing. It is not viable to finish some cattle out of shed unless you can use there natural hormone as bulls. It will be interesting to see the kill figure this winter expect a huge fall off as smaller farmers exit the business. The average cattle finisher finishes 20 cattle:eek: The farmer finishing 1-2 pens of cattle is exiting this winter will be interesting to see if kill falls to 20K/week.

Reggie.

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

UK milk producers are losing money at 30c/L or thereabouts. this is because they have moved in intensive milk production. There is liquid milk and everyone answer to lower prices is to expand. At 30c/L efficient Irish farmers are making money. And with higher solids etc that the UK they are even at a higher price often 3-4 above this base compared to UK price. Yes there will be up and downs in milk however unless grain falls below 100/ton our grass based system is a winner.

On beef there will be a continued push to get carcasses in the 280-330Kg bracket. The processor will continual to push this, however for the next 2-3 years as supply is tight processors will be less choosy. However they may well pay a premium for these cattle that match UK market spec.

Bull will have to come back into the equation for winter finishing. It is not viable to finish some cattle out of shed unless you can use there natural hormone as bulls. It will be interesting to see the kill figure this winter expect a huge fall off as smaller farmers exit the business. The average cattle finisher finishes 20 cattle:eek: The farmer finishing 1-2 pens of cattle is exiting this winter will be interesting to see if kill falls to 20K/week.

I was surprised to see the number of cattle the average farmer finishes

Count Mondego

Limestone Cowboy wrote: »

I know the lad alright I'd say, SN his initials? Not sure it'd be the way for me but often thought of doing similar at the same time. Have a lot more interest in actually farming than selling and marketing that kind of a business.

That's him!

Willfarman

I can only speak for my own locality lads but I see no one that regularly winter finishes cattle exiting the job.
A few mushrooms might disappear as they say.

simx

Willfarman wrote: »

I can only speak for my own locality lads but I see no one that regularly winter finishes cattle exiting the job.
A few mushrooms might disappear as they say.

I'd have to agree with what I can see locally also, same lads finishing cattle this year, maybe one or two talking about not as many but if Theres one or two weeks with a small bit of what looks like value there could be back to the same number very quick

Farmer Pudsey

Reggie. wrote: »

I was surprised to see the number of cattle the average farmer finishes

Saw it in FJ in last few weeks. This is for total year not just for winter finishing. Its east to understand you have the suckler farmers killing 2-3 cows a year and the dairy farmers killing 8-19 cows. Then you have the farmers that only finish 8-10 bullocks that lla drag down the average. It is a little supriseing but it show how fragnented the industry is

Willfarman wrote: »

I can only speak for my own locality lads but I see no one that regularly winter finishes cattle exiting the job.
A few mushrooms might disappear as they say.

I think you are based in the south east WF. A good few smaller dairy farmers that had subsidary beef operations are exiting. Lads that did dairy bulls in small numbers are exiting. It is the smaller operator that is exiting winter finishing. Word seems to be on the ground that not many cattle are being fed at present. These are cattle that supply the Christmas market.

In the SE with access to grain off the combine lads may be more inclined to stay at it. However there seems to be a bit of an exit.