Investment for the future

Cabinteely

Howye lads,

A question I wanted to ask and hopefuly we will get some good, sensible answers

If someone gave you €5,000 to invest in:

Stocks / Shares
Precious Metals
Commodities
Currencies / Forex

Where would you invest the money, any why?

It can be for short or long term investment, Im just curious to see what the answers will be like.

conditioned games

Cabinteely wrote: »

Howye lads,

A question I wanted to ask and hopefuly we will get some good, sensible answers

If someone gave you €5,000 to invest in:

Stocks / Shares
Precious Metals
Commodities
Currencies / Forex

Where would you invest the money, any why?

It can be for short or long term investment, Im just curious to see what the answers will be like.

Physical precious metals will be best ever investment you could make for next 5 yrs. Shares, currencies, real estate and bonds will lose alot on.

Cute Hoor

conditioned games wrote: »

Physical precious metals will be best ever investment you could make for next 5 yrs. Shares, currencies, real estate and bonds will lose alot on.

How can you possibly definitively say this, it is virtually impossible to predict what will happen next month never mind what will happen over the next 5 years, what about wars, diseases, natural disasters, discoveries, an absolute myriad of things that could impact precious metals (or any other asset class) either negatively or positively over that period of time. People on here were making pretty outrageous definitive statements here around a year ago about how high the price of gold and silver were going imminently, $50 short term was being confidently predicted for silver, silver has dropped 23% in the last year, gold 35% in the last 2 years, whats to say it won't keep dropping?

Cabinteely asked ‘where would you invest the money’ and more importantly ‘why’, why will Physical precious metals be the best ever investment you could make for next 5 yrs, and why will Shares, currencies, real estate and bonds lose a lot??

Precious metals may very well rocket in price, maybe they won’t, I haven’t a clue.

I would have thought that investing in a blue chip company, with a good history and fundamentals, that produces a product or provides a service that people will continue to need/use irrespective of the developing world situation would be a reasonable option.

conditioned games

Cute Hoor wrote: »

How can you possibly definitively say this, it is virtually impossible to predict what will happen next month never mind what will happen over the next 5 years, what about wars, diseases, natural disasters, discoveries, an absolute myriad of things that could impact precious metals (or any other asset class) either negatively or positively over that period of time. People on here were making pretty outrageous definitive statements here around a year ago about how high the price of gold and silver were going imminently, $50 short term was being confidently predicted for silver, silver has dropped 23% in the last year, gold 35% in the last 2 years, whats to say it won't keep dropping?

Cabinteely asked ‘where would you invest the money’ and more importantly ‘why’, why will Physical precious metals be the best ever investment you could make for next 5 yrs, and why will Shares, currencies, real estate and bonds lose a lot??

Precious metals may very well rocket in price, maybe they won’t, I haven’t a clue.

I would have thought that investing in a blue chip company, with a good history and fundamentals, that produces a product or provides a service that people will continue to need/use irrespective of the developing world situation would be a reasonable option.

It’s not at all impossible to predict what will happen over the next 5 years. The more you look into the past the more you can see patterns and predict the future.

I agree a blue chip company can produce something tangible, it can fulfil a person’s need while precious metals is just a lump of metal. However at present precious metals is at the beginning of its cycle that will see prices go to levels never imagined before while shares and blue chip companies are not in their cycle right now.

What you will see happening over the next few years is a new monetary system been devised by the finance ministers of the world’s largest economies. The current system is broken and will have to be destroyed before a new one begins. Currently today most of the world’s currencies are not backed by precious metals. Every currency in the past that was not backed by precious metals have gone to zero.
Over half of the world’s currency today is US dollars. It is held by nearly every foreign currency reserve in the world. Back in the early 70’s under Nixon the US dollar was moved off gold and instead it was backed by oil. Since then currencies of other countries have been linked to the dollar. Back then they also agreed with OPEC and the major oil producing countries to sell their oil only by dollars. It has given the USA an unfair competitive advantage and enormous wealth. They have been able to send out their paper dollars that is not backed by anything tangible and an automatic demand has been created for their currency which they get goods and services in return. That is known as the petrodollar and is why they have been involved in so many wars to protect it. However that is coming to an end.




Many countries around the world have been running deficit budgets for the last 15 years, spending money now that is basically an IOU i.e. I promise to use future wealth to pay for it. The US has been one of the worst offenders that is both unsustainable and a ticking time bomb that is not far away.

Do you remember that short term stimulus they introduced back in 2008 known as quantative easing which is basically an increase in the money supply by printing more dollars. Well 6 years later they are unable to get off it because if they stop creating new debt to pay off existing debt then the whole ponzi scheme collapses.

I believe it will end when inflation starts to increase in the US and they will have to increase interest rates to combat it meaning interest repayments on its debt become unsustainable. At the moment we are in a period of deflation. This is due to the US going back to the number one oil producing country because of its shale gas and oil inventions which has lead to the price of oil falling. This is not a new sustainable business but the end phase of oil production in the USA. They have to use major amounts of debt and drilling to bring this oil on to the market that would be otherwise unsustainable.

They are also getting into debt at a more alarming pace where they have doubled their debt since Obama came to office. There is now no way back and the inevitable outcome will mean other countries losing confidence in the dollar and sending their reserves of dollars back to the US thus reinforcing the hyperinflation in that country. The course we are on cannot be reversed and when all confidence in governments, banks, stocks, bonds, real estate fails people will flock back to that asset class that has existed 5,000 years ago in Egypt and right now that is where the smart money should be. This is why if you have some spare cash to invest and want to put it away for 5 years then you will never get a better opportunity in your lifetime than investing in precious metals now.

Cute Hoor

We will most certainly have to agree to disagree on how possible it is to predict what will happen over the next 5 years, I say impossible but I respect your view.

You may very well be right, but this is the kind of stuff that was being posted here over the past couple of years (not by you I think), with (outrageous) predictions of where silver/gold were going to within a short space of time, while the prices continued to drop like a lead balloon (Gold down 6%+, Silver down 12%+ over the last 30 days).

So at present precious metals is at the beginning of its cycle, does this mean that we will not see any further drop in the price of gold/silver (starting tomorrow), if not how low will they go before starting it's unimaginable rise, when will it hit this low (if not there already), what are these unimaginable prices that it will reach and over what timescale?

conditioned games

Cute Hoor wrote: »

We will most certainly have to agree to disagree on how possible it is to predict what will happen over the next 5 years, I say impossible but I respect your view.

You may very well be right, but this is the kind of stuff that was being posted here over the past couple of years (not by you I think), with (outrageous) predictions of where silver/gold were going to within a short space of time, while the prices continued to drop like a lead balloon (Gold down 6%+, Silver down 12%+ over the last 30 days).

So at present precious metals is at the beginning of its cycle, does this mean that we will not see any further drop in the price of gold/silver (starting tomorrow), if not how low will they go before starting it's unimaginable rise, when will it hit this low (if not there already), what are these unimaginable prices that it will reach and over what timescale?

Right now silver is around 17 dollars an ounce, i say it could well go to 15 an ounce and take 6 more months to start its up leg. But in the overall picture it is better to be too early than too late. I also think its value will multiply at least 5 times.

Predicting the exact day of peaks and bottoms is not possible but predicting what will happen can be done. I would only consider it if you had spare cash and willing to put it away for 4 or 5 years. I sold out of stocks over a year ago, would have made more money if sold now after buying in early 09. But in my opinion i perfer to reduce my risk, get ahead of the herd, be happy with my gains and move on. When people get too greedy thats when they risk losing it all.

RobertKK

I like biotechnology.

CLDX
PCYC
GILD
ALNY
MDVN
MGNX
GNFT

For something a bit more risky - EPZM.

SBarrett

conditioned games wrote: »

It’s not at all impossible to predict what will happen over the next 5 years. The more you look into the past the more you can see patterns and predict the future.

Chasing trends is one of the strongest trading bias of all. Markets are a lot more random than investors think but investors think they see patterns where no patterns exist at all.

Steven

conditioned games

SBarrett wrote: »

Chasing trends is one of the strongest trading bias of all. Markets are a lot more random than investors think but investors think they see patterns where no patterns exist at all.

Steven

Looking at charts that cover a long period of time uncover trends that are not so black and white over a short period of time. These long term charts can be very good at indicating when an asset class is in a bubble or undervalued. Since 1997 we have had 3 major bubbles, the Tech bubble in 2000, property bubble in 2007 and now the debt bubble. This current bubble we are in looks very similar to the one back in 1929 that resulted in the great depression. You would want to be very foolish to look at short term trends over days and weeks and think you can see the big picture, likewise you would want to be very foolish to think there isn't a similar pattern forming now.

ulinbac

conditioned games wrote: »

Looking at charts that cover a long period of time uncover trends that are not so black and white over a short period of time. These long term charts can be very good at indicating when an asset class is in a bubble or undervalued. Since 1997 we have had 3 major bubbles, the Tech bubble in 2000, property bubble in 2007 and now the debt bubble. This current bubble we are in looks very similar to the one back in 1929 that resulted in the great depression. You would want to be very foolish to look at short term trends over days and weeks and think you can see the big picture, likewise you would want to be very foolish to think there isn't a similar pattern forming now.

Any links or images to back up the above.

Not having a go I'm just very sceptical about charting for trading. There will always be cycles from boom to bust and back to boom. Cannot see how you can conclude that there is one similar to the great depression happenung at present

conditioned games

ulinbac wrote: »

Any links or images to back up the above.

Not having a go I'm just very sceptical about charting for trading. There will always be cycles from boom to bust and back to boom. Cannot see how you can conclude that there is one similar to the great depression happenung at present

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11066137/Spectre-of-1929-crash-looms-over-FTSE-100-as-traders-take-on-record-debts.html

ulinbac

conditioned games wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11066137/Spectre-of-1929-crash-looms-over-FTSE-100-as-traders-take-on-record-debts.html

Thanks for that. Will read over the coming days. On hols and not poolside reading

john.invest

I think the most logical answear to your question is this:

Do you have a certain degree of understanding what the financial markets are and how they operate?
If no:
Take that 5k and invest into some education
If yes:
What is your capacity for risk?
If its high:

Stocks / Shares
Precious Metals
Commodities
Currencies / Forex
All of these are a sort of high risk/high return instruments.

If its low:
Etf's
Bonds
Utility Stock
Mutual funds/hedge funds (Well sort of)

So we can see that the best and most profitable investment you can possibly make is in your education. Investing is not like a casino, therefore it should not be treated like one.

All the best,
John.

Gandalph

conditioned games wrote: »

Physical precious metals will be best ever investment you could make for next 5 yrs. Shares, currencies, real estate and bonds will lose alot on.

It’s not at all impossible to predict what will happen over the next 5 years. The more you look into the past the more you can see patterns and predict the future.

Are you referring to one market in particular? Because I hope you're not generalising all those methods of investments as loss makers over 5 years. Sure do your pattern analysis not tell you that when stocks go down, bonds go up and visa versa?

Technical analysis over a 5 year period is the most unwise piece of investing advice I have ever heard.

conditioned games

Gandalph wrote: »

Are you referring to one market in particular? Because I hope you're not generalising all those methods of investments as loss makers over 5 years. Sure do your pattern analysis not tell you that when stocks go down, bonds go up and visa versa?

Technical analysis over a 5 year period is the most unwise piece of investing advice I have ever heard.

I refer to both bonds and stocks. I would not like to invest in a govt bond that are so indebted to the point of no return. Sure interest rates go up but is it worth the risk of default.

The analysis relates to the past 100 years and the cycle of monetary systems since ww1. The current system of dollars backed by oil and every other currency linked to the dollar has developed major problems that will end within the next 5 yrs.

don_01

Cabinteely wrote: »

Howye lads,

A question I wanted to ask and hopefuly we will get some good, sensible answers

If someone gave you €5,000 to invest in:

Stocks / Shares
Precious Metals
Commodities
Currencies / Forex

Where would you invest the money, any why?

It can be for short or long term investment, Im just curious to see what the answers will be like.

My first question would be what is your goal?? (2% / 5% / 100% and is it short/medium/long term investment). Its a very open question:-)

RobertKK

I would wait on the stock markets as a correction seems to be underway.

The J Stands for Jay

conditioned games wrote: »

It’s not at all impossible to predict what will happen over the next 5 years. The more you look into the past the more you can see patterns and predict the future.

I agree a blue chip company can produce something tangible, it can fulfil a person’s need while precious metals is just a lump of metal. However at present precious metals is at the beginning of its cycle that will see prices go to levels never imagined before while shares and blue chip companies are not in their cycle right now.

What you will see happening over the next few years is a new monetary system been devised by the finance ministers of the world’s largest economies. The current system is broken and will have to be destroyed before a new one begins. Currently today most of the world’s currencies are not backed by precious metals. Every currency in the past that was not backed by precious metals have gone to zero.
Over half of the world’s currency today is US dollars. It is held by nearly every foreign currency reserve in the world. Back in the early 70’s under Nixon the US dollar was moved off gold and instead it was backed by oil. Since then currencies of other countries have been linked to the dollar. Back then they also agreed with OPEC and the major oil producing countries to sell their oil only by dollars. It has given the USA an unfair competitive advantage and enormous wealth. They have been able to send out their paper dollars that is not backed by anything tangible and an automatic demand has been created for their currency which they get goods and services in return. That is known as the petrodollar and is why they have been involved in so many wars to protect it. However that is coming to an end.




Many countries around the world have been running deficit budgets for the last 15 years, spending money now that is basically an IOU i.e. I promise to use future wealth to pay for it. The US has been one of the worst offenders that is both unsustainable and a ticking time bomb that is not far away.

Do you remember that short term stimulus they introduced back in 2008 known as quantative easing which is basically an increase in the money supply by printing more dollars. Well 6 years later they are unable to get off it because if they stop creating new debt to pay off existing debt then the whole ponzi scheme collapses.

I believe it will end when inflation starts to increase in the US and they will have to increase interest rates to combat it meaning interest repayments on its debt become unsustainable. At the moment we are in a period of deflation. This is due to the US going back to the number one oil producing country because of its shale gas and oil inventions which has lead to the price of oil falling. This is not a new sustainable business but the end phase of oil production in the USA. They have to use major amounts of debt and drilling to bring this oil on to the market that would be otherwise unsustainable.

They are also getting into debt at a more alarming pace where they have doubled their debt since Obama came to office. There is now no way back and the inevitable outcome will mean other countries losing confidence in the dollar and sending their reserves of dollars back to the US thus reinforcing the hyperinflation in that country. The course we are on cannot be reversed and when all confidence in governments, banks, stocks, bonds, real estate fails people will flock back to that asset class that has existed 5,000 years ago in Egypt and right now that is where the smart money should be. This is why if you have some spare cash to invest and want to put it away for 5 years then you will never get a better opportunity in your lifetime than investing in precious metals now.

It's always seemed a bit strange to me. People complain: "these bits of paper are no good at representing value, these shiny metals are much better at representing value in excess of their practical usefulness."

conditioned games

McGaggs wrote: »

It's always seemed a bit strange to me. People complain: "these bits of paper are no good at representing value, these shiny metals are much better at representing value in excess of their practical usefulness."

You need to ask yourself 'what is real money'. Is it currency like dollars, euro, sterling etc. If so what gives the currency it's value. Is it confidence because yesterday you walked into a shop and it gave you X amount of goods and so today you have an idea what its value is.


What happens when confidence turns negative in that currency because they produced too much of it. Do you think paper assets like stocks and bonds become more valuable or should the currency have been backed by something fixed and limited that prevents it losing its value.

Gandalph

McGaggs wrote: »

It's always seemed a bit strange to me. People complain: "these bits of paper are no good at representing value, these shiny metals are much better at representing value in excess of their practical usefulness."

I believe it's a psychological thing, metals being valuable since day zero of recorded history. Of course they have seen their ups and downs in the markets but how redundant can they ever be made be? Unless all this tripe about mining asteroids for precious minerals ever becomes a reality, we are never going to see the world saturated in them. I personally have no interest in them but they are stocks that appeal to even the average Joe Potato (obviously not everyone who trades in them, some experienced surfers know how to ride those waves).

conditioned games

Gandalph wrote: »

I believe it's a psychological thing, metals being valuable since day zero of recorded history. Of course they have seen their ups and downs in the markets but how redundant can they ever be made be? Unless all this tripe about mining asteroids for precious minerals ever becomes a reality, we are never going to see the world saturated in them. I personally have no interest in them but they are stocks that appeal to even the average Joe Potato (obviously not everyone who trades in them, some experienced surfers know how to ride those waves).

You are right in saying it is a psychology thing. Both positive and negative psychology applies to all asset classes. If it didn’t exist we wouldn’t have peaks and bottoms as assets would reflect its true value at every stage of its life. Personally I prefer to own real estate and don’t have any interest in holding precious metals forever but right now precious metals is the only asset class I like owning.

Blue chip companies are nice to have when undervalued, but like now where we have a stock market bubble that is been supported by a government debt bubble they are unappealing to me as the risk of continuing to own them outweighs any upside that may happen from continued money printing and more government debt. I prefer to reposition to safe havens before the inevitable happens. Similarly bonds don’t appeal to me either because it is fixed debt with a fixed return and the value of bonds always falls as interest rates and inflation rise.

HobbyMan

Stocks and bonds provide a cash inflow where as metals do not.

Sure the income is small in the early years but it should grow as time goes on.

Bonds are not very cheap right now but you can find some sensational value on the stock market although admittedly in small caps.

I'd wait until I found a cheap larger company with a good return on growing equity, a good return on retained earnings, low debt, smart management and a competitive advantage. I would also want other companies to need this company's services or products.

Once you find a company like that at a cheap price just buy and hold.

conditioned games

HobbyMan wrote: »

Stocks and bonds provide a cash inflow where as metals do not.

Sure the income is small in the early years but it should grow as time goes on.

Bonds are not very cheap right now but you can find some sensational value on the stock market although admittedly in small caps.

I'd wait until I found a cheap larger company with a good return on growing equity, a good return on retained earnings, low debt, smart management and a competitive advantage. I would also want other companies to need this company's services or products.

Once you find a company like that at a cheap price just buy and hold.

You are forgetting capital appreciation. A regular cash inflow is one form of increasing your wealth from investing in an asset. The other is selling the asset at a later stage when the asset has increased in value.

Also if a deep worldwide depression does come through, there will not be the cash inflow that an investor is will be expecting. Reduced disposable income means less spending and less profits made by companies. Also the threat in even stable companies going under increases as the worldwide depression drags on.

I think the following clip describes the current situation and where we are heading. It is by a highly intelligent person called Jim Rickards who has worked for and advised the US government going back as far as the early 1970’s.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYW5OGWfqJc

He touches on a number of issues such as the return of GDP growth for every dollar created. Back in 1960’s the US got $2.41 for every dollar of debt, by the late 70’s it had reduced to $0.41 return for every dollar of debt, today it stands at $0.03 and it is soon to become negative. Therefore when it does go negative no matter how much extra debt is created their GDP will fall.

He talks about the real unemployment rate in America is 23% and not 6.7% as the official figures say. The labour force participation rate is lower now than at any time in the last 40 years with 50 million americans on food stamps.

They are currently trying to fight deflation which Japan are currently in and Europe entering it now. Central banks always make the same mistake when fighting deflation by increasing the money supply, Japan has been doing it for 30 years and failed. It is caused due to velocity of money declining i.e. how many times currency circulates in an economy in a given year. People are not borrowing, credit is falling and velocity looks just like it did before the great depression back in 1929.

The misery index which is the correct inflation and unemployment rate is worse now than in the great depression which will result in businesses unable to pay debts and banks failing. The stock market capitalization to GDP ratio is twice that before the 1929 depression which means stocks are grossly overvalued right now.

Foreign ownership of US government debt took a bashing earlier this year over the US interference in Ukraine when both Russia and China dumped US treasuries while exactly at the same time a mystery buyer in Belgium took the slack and acquired over 350 billion of US debt to prop up the market. If they couldn’t find buyers interest rates would have increased resulting in the debt becoming unstable.

Petrodollar is under threat with more and more countries willing to bypass the dollar to buy and sell oil. China is in bigger trouble. After the 2008 financial meltdown China increased their money supply and debt to fund a massive construction boom to keep people working and avoid another Tiananmen Square. Whole cities built in the middle of nowhere with airports, hotels, skyscrapers etc and no one living there. 50% of their GDP comes from construction that has now begun to collapse which is going to unleash massive bank failures and poverty as a result of the Chinese middle class investing in these elephant projects.

Basically there are 2 options you have right now. Ignore what is coming down the line and continue to invest in the stock market or the other option is to prepare yourself and benefit from the coming wealth transfer. I think it will come to a head in late 2016 but it could happen before then. This is why for me precious metals is where the smart money should be just like when I invested in stocks back in early 2009.

whats newxt

BABA NYSE for a good return in the future.

I don't know if you know this but you can get 0% commision trading online here's a good site: https://www.robinhood.com/

Johnny Jukebox

whats newxt wrote: »

BABA NYSE for a good return in the future.

I don't know if you know this but you can get 0% commision trading online here's a good site: https://www.robinhood.com/

Doesn't look like robinhood.com is open to non resident non-US citizens ?

https://brokerage-static.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/robinhood/legal/RHF%20Jurisdictions.pdf

whats newxt

Johnny Jukebox wrote: »

Doesn't look like robinhood.com is open to non resident non-US citizens ?

https://brokerage-static.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/robinhood/legal/RHF%20Jurisdictions.pdf

Oh is it not what a shame i came across it the other day signed up for early access but looks like i'm not going to get to use it so. A service like this is badly needed in Europe.

Brussels Sprout

conditioned games wrote: »

Do you remember that short term stimulus they introduced back in 2008 known as quantative easing which is basically an increase in the money supply by printing more dollars. Well 6 years later they are unable to get off it because if they stop creating new debt to pay off existing debt then the whole ponzi scheme collapses.

You were wrong about that.

Clearlier

conditioned games wrote: »

They are currently trying to fight deflation which Japan are currently in and Europe entering it now. Central banks always make the same mistake when fighting deflation by increasing the money supply, Japan has been doing it for 30 years and failed. It is caused due to velocity of money declining i.e. how many times currency circulates in an economy in a given year. People are not borrowing, credit is falling and velocity looks just like it did before the great depression back in 1929.

That's just not true. One of the reasons for the huge debate about quantitative easing is because it's so novel that little is know about its effects. As best I can find out Japan started doing it in March 2001 not thirty years ago and there's a fair amount of debate as to its impact with many thinking that the Japanese central bank were too cautious doing too little too late..

The issues caused by the declining velocity of money is one of the things that quantitative easing fights against. The normal response to the current economic situation would be to reduce interest rates. It can't be done because they're already as low as they can go so quantitative easing is employed instead in an effort to replicate the impact of interest rate reductions.

Cute Hoor

So the States have ended quantitative easing and the price of Gold & Silver continues to collapse, Silver down 10% approx since this thread started and Gold something similar to it's lowest price in 5 years.

What's happening???

conditioned games

The US Federal Reserve has said they are ending Quantative Easing. But how many times have they said that in the past. They said the same after QE1, 17 months later they started QE2, they said the same again they were ending quanative easing, 15 months later they started QE3. Can you see a pattern here. QE4 is a certainty and will happen possibly in 12 months. It is one big Ponzi scheme with each government trying desperately to push the problem down the road. The American economy has been on life support since 2008 and the problems that have existed then are still there but now much bigger. Also do not believe the unemployment statistics the US government comes out with.


Quanative easing is not novel. A new name has been coined for it by the US federal reserve but it has been done before by past empires. The Roman empire debased their money supply to fund wars, Germany did it after world war 1 to meet the war obligations to France. There have been several instances of governments greatly expanding their currency by printing more of it. Every time it has happen it has resulted in hyperinflation with precious metals revaluing upwards to match all the currency that was printed. The US is heading for deflation as a result of people cutting back on spending and a sure sign of what’s to come. They will again try and print the dollar into oblivion to combat it after which they will be faced with years of hyperinflation and toilet paper currency.


Price of Gold and Silver are down because of the manipulation of their price by the Federal Reserve and the UK. The demand for the physical metals has been on fire the last number of years with Gold in particular moving from West to East. The paper market in precious metals is massive and it is why the price has been forced down. They price the metals at a low value and promise to deliver it in future but reality is they don’t own the metals. Those manipulating the market will get badly burnt down the line when the crisis hits and demand from Middle East and Asia swamps the market. I do think the price of precious metals will bottom in November but time will tell.

hmmm

conditioned games wrote: »

Price of Gold and Silver are down because of the manipulation of their price by the Federal Reserve and the UK.

Traders have cashed in on the gullible who were lured into buying gold. If you're going to take financial advice from someone lives in a world of conspiracy theories and potential armageddon, you're going to get burned.

conditioned games

hmmm wrote: »

Traders have cashed in on the gullible who were lured into buying gold. If you're going to take financial advice from someone lives in a world of conspiracy theories and potential armageddon, you're going to get burned.

It’s not just me or a small few that can see the manipulation of the precious metals right now. Type ‘manipulation gold silver’ into any search engine and there are hundreds of recent articles about it. The key reason why their price is manipulated downwards is because they act as red flags. If the US government and the rest of the world that are gone mad in the head printing currency want everyone to believe their fake recovery then they can’t have these metals going through the roof as it sends out the wrong message. These metals act as safe havens and always have done so throughout history.

Clearlier

conditioned games wrote: »

The US Federal Reserve has said they are ending Quantative Easing. But how many times have they said that in the past. They said the same after QE1, 17 months later they started QE2, they said the same again they were ending quanative easing, 15 months later they started QE3. Can you see a pattern here. QE4 is a certainty and will happen possibly in 12 months. It is one big Ponzi scheme with each government trying desperately to push the problem down the road. The American economy has been on life support since 2008 and the problems that have existed then are still there but now much bigger. Also do not believe the unemployment statistics the US government comes out with.


Quanative easing is not novel. A new name has been coined for it by the US federal reserve but it has been done before by past empires. The Roman empire debased their money supply to fund wars, Germany did it after world war 1 to meet the war obligations to France. There have been several instances of governments greatly expanding their currency by printing more of it. Every time it has happen it has resulted in hyperinflation with precious metals revaluing upwards to match all the currency that was printed. The US is heading for deflation as a result of people cutting back on spending and a sure sign of what’s to come. They will again try and print the dollar into oblivion to combat it after which they will be faced with years of hyperinflation and toilet paper currency.


Price of Gold and Silver are down because of the manipulation of their price by the Federal Reserve and the UK. The demand for the physical metals has been on fire the last number of years with Gold in particular moving from West to East. The paper market in precious metals is massive and it is why the price has been forced down. They price the metals at a low value and promise to deliver it in future but reality is they don’t own the metals. Those manipulating the market will get badly burnt down the line when the crisis hits and demand from Middle East and Asia swamps the market. I do think the price of precious metals will bottom in November but time will tell.

By your own account Japan has been doing it (quantitative easing) for years (my google suggested since 2003). They continue to have a deflation problem. Is there a time limit on when hyperinflation will happen as a result of quantitative easing policies or can it happen at any point in the future to prove your point? Similarly it has been about 5 years since fears began to be expressed about inflation getting too high in the western world. I shared them myself initially but the evidence kept piling up against it and I have had to review my opinion to fit in with what has actually happened.

conditioned games

Clearlier wrote: »

By your own account Japan has been doing it (quantitative easing) for years (my google suggested since 2003). They continue to have a deflation problem. Is there a time limit on when hyperinflation will happen as a result of quantitative easing policies or can it happen at any point in the future to prove your point? Similarly it has been about 5 years since fears began to be expressed about inflation getting too high in the western world. I shared them myself initially but the evidence kept piling up against it and I have had to review my opinion to fit in with what has actually happened.

I don’t know the exact time limit but it will happen when a period of panic runs through the market and asset managers begin dumping US treasuries and using the proceeds to invest in commodities as they are the best store of value. That’s when the currency loses its value and the hyperinflation begins.

Clearlier

conditioned games wrote: »

I don’t know the exact time limit but it will happen when a period of panic runs through the market and asset managers begin dumping US treasuries and using the proceeds to invest in commodities as they are the best store of value. That’s when the currency loses its value and the hyperinflation begins.

Just wondering if you will still think that you're right if it hasn't happened in 20 years time? Would your prediction be incorrect if a period of panic did go through the market? or would it require asset managers to dump US treasuries as well? or would it require them to invest in commodities as well as dumping the treasuries? What if hyperinflation still didn't happen, would it just be a matter of time?

I'm asking the questions because I'm concerned that your hypothesis is an unfalsifiable one or more accurately a difficult to falsify one. If I make an assertion it has to be possible for it to be wrong in order to have any value. The greater the possibility that it's wrong the greater the value you can attach to it. I think that 5 years of listening to people tell us that high inflation is just around the corner is long enough to discount their theories. If I'm thinking about investing in a certain strategy then I need to have a view on timing or it's not much use to me.

conditioned games

Clearlier wrote: »

Just wondering if you will still think that you're right if it hasn't happened in 20 years time? Would your prediction be incorrect if a period of panic did go through the market? or would it require asset managers to dump US treasuries as well? or would it require them to invest in commodities as well as dumping the treasuries? What if hyperinflation still didn't happen, would it just be a matter of time?

I'm asking the questions because I'm concerned that your hypothesis is an unfalsifiable one or more accurately a difficult to falsify one. If I make an assertion it has to be possible for it to be wrong in order to have any value. The greater the possibility that it's wrong the greater the value you can attach to it. I think that 5 years of listening to people tell us that high inflation is just around the corner is long enough to discount their theories. If I'm thinking about investing in a certain strategy then I need to have a view on timing or it's not much use to me.

It will begin before Obama leaves office. He has two years left and has been the public relations officer for the too big to fail banks that have become bigger and more exposed since 2008. There are too many events coming together that won’t allow the false recovery continue for another 3 years.



I won’t be going back into stocks until 2019 or 2020 when they will again be heavily undervalued similar to early 2009 when I last purchased them. Inflation hasn’t happened the last 5 years as a result of the increase in currency in circulation because most of it has ended up in asset bubbles like government bonds and stocks rather than in people’s pockets which is why consumer spending has been poor. It has been a windfall for the banks but ultimately it will be the middle class that pays when people’s purchasing power dramatically falls. All that extra currency has been building up like a dam and won’t be released until asset managers begin dumping US treasuries. They will be the first to exit with central banks like China, Japan, etc left holding the parcel. Only then will the full effects of hyperinflation begin.



I think now would be the best time to reposition to precious metals. If you look at silver for example it costs $21 to produce one ounce but the market price is around $16 because of the manipulation by JP Morgan and the US Fed. 50 billion ounces of silver has been mined throughout history but only 1 billion is left above ground. It is used in many forms such as electronics, solar energy, medicine, etc and most of it ends up in landfills or incinerators never to be seen again. The demand has exceeded supply the last 10 years while there is less of it in the ground. It also acts as a safe haven in times of crisis. This is a strategy that will give massive returns before this decade is over.

Das Reich

Hello I am brazilian living here 10 years. I can say here is not a good country to invest as the government eat all your money in taxes.

In my country I did an investment on trees (Calophyllum brasiliense), this tree is planted by 500 on a hectare and takes 30 years to grow, the price to sell is close to 2.000 dollars for cubic meter, it means 500.000 dollars for hectare (in Brazil land is way cheaper) when it cut. I have also some eucalyptus that takes 8 years to grow but it gives only 4.000 euros for hectare when it cut. In Ireland I think even if you plant trees the government would take their part, so I don't know if is a good idea for here.

Das Reich

About gold, I think I did read somewhere that tax in Ireland is 23%. It means price needs to go up a lot before you make any profit?