Ulster Provincial Season Build Up Thread.

Losty Dublin

“Always the bridesmaid and never the bride”; a phrase which aptly sums up Ulster Rugby over the last few years.

Certainly on paper and in the flesh they usually look good. They always turn up on the day, their physical pack stands up to the best teams in the world, they play some exciting football but their role on any given day is one that, quite frankly, could easily be filled in by any other team on their big day. Mind you, bridesmaid is something of a promotion; they were little more than the flower girl until recently!

Considering the long term loss of Stephen Ferris, Ulster had a reasonably strong showing last season with their relatively modest squad. Irish squad call ups didn't affect them that badly and as a result it allowed them to maintain squad consistency a little better. A undefeated Heineken Cup group phase and a very close defeat in the last 8 to Saracens was an undoubted highlight as was a double League against Munster. However some poor Pro 12 performances saw them eventually finish in 4th place before eventually losing 13-9 to Leinster in a dour semi final.

WHO'S IN?

Squad wise, they have managed to bring in some efficient new players though they are merely replacing key players who have retired or left the province. Rory Best is captain for the season, Ian Humphries returns home from L-Irish while Louis Ludik will provide Jared Payne with experienced cover at Full Back. No less than 3 new props arrive in (Dave Ryan and Wiehahn Herbst being two) to cover Tom Court and John Afoa but all eyes will be on Ruaidhrí Murphy who has two seasons with the Brumbies behind him and a lot of promise ahead of him. Veteran Afrikaaner Franco van der Merwe, Lansdowne’s Charlie Butterworth and Kiwi Sean Reidy come in to cover the second/back rows while Trimble, Bowe, Cave, Gilroy and Marshall remain committed for this season at least.

WHO'S OUT?

On the down side, quite a lot of heavy hitters have departed, notably in the front row. Props Tom Court and John Afoa are off to England while young talents Paddy McAllister, Niall Annett, Adam Macklin have left for foreign shores. Behind the front row, Ferris has gone for good while Johann Muller and Paddy Jackson have retired as well; powerful if injury prone flanker Sean Doyle is returning to the Brumbies.

AND THE WEE LADS?

As regards the pick of the younger talent, look for impressive games from 3/4’s Stuart Olding and Rory Scholes; prop Ricky Lutton is a late comer to the professional game and who should get more game time this year while Ballymena scrum half David Shanahan is expected to come good as well provided he is given some decent game time.

IS THAT IT? WHO'S CALLING THE SHOTS

More than anything though, the loss of Mark Ainscombe and David Humphries has affected their ability to chase players though interim coach Les Kiss has done his best for the province. Player numbers are essential to get through the the harsh and talent shy Pro 14 games in November and February or when injuries mount up; this has been an issue in previous years. While their reliance on imported players allows them to be available to them with less fear of call ups, the question remains if the depth and talent is there to get them through the season in comfort. 
 Certainly it's not there in the Raven's, not in the same way that it is with Leinster or Munster.

LE CUP

In Europe, Ulster have been dealt a very poor hand in Leicester, Toulon and Llanelli. Toulon, who won the H cup in 2013 and 2014 and defending Top 14 champions will be geared up to win the inaugural ER Champions Cup and are undoubtedly favourites to win the Cup. Money is no object for them when it come to player recruitment and James O’Connor and Leigh Halpenny will more than make up for retiring Johnny Wilkinson.

Even Leicester have a lot of fiscal clout and although they are not the formidable team of old, they are still masters of pack retention and victory grinding and are better bets on paper. Llanelli, while dangerous on the right day, are another victim of the imminent implosion of Welsh rugby and a shadow of their former selves. They are beatable with ease but besides that it's slim pickings this season. 


OUTLOOK

Overall, I can’t see Ulster doing a lot better than they did last season. They haven’t gone far enough in attracting in new talent, the lack of a long term coaching team has to be be a massive blow for the province while their academy players, while good, aren’t coming through in numbers enough to make a big difference. The defence will be tightened up under Kiss and it will make them harder to beat on the day, provided that the back line hold their own over the 80.

While they have moved forward over the last few seasons and punched above their weight, there is only so far that Ulster can go before their fans will demand trophies, which they just cannot do just now. They have a rebuilt and renamed Ravenhill/Kingspan Park to play in this year; the question is if the Ulstermen can stand up this time round?

My prediction is for a another semi final loss in the Pro 12, a near scalp of Leinster and two wins to the Scarlets in Europe.



Key players; Tuohy, Pienaar, Gilroy, Diack, Murphy, Nick Williams.

Paul Smeenus

Not a bad synopsis, although we play in the Pro 12, I believe.

I would say though, that Herbst is the most important signing, likely to be our first choice TH. Mutphy less so. Calum Black was putting in better performances than Court last season.

Let won't be focusing too much on our defence I hope - Johnny Bell has done an excellent job, with Ulster having the lowest points against and the second lowest tries against last season.

What we really need is more precision and to use our considerable talent in the backs more. Marshall was wasted last season as a bosh IC.

my real concern is back-row.

mfceiling

Paddy Jackson has retired...

Losty Dublin

mfceiling wrote: »

Paddy Jackson has retired...

Ya don't say

Losty Dublin wrote:

Behind the front row, Ferris has gone for good while Johann Muller and Paddy Jackson have retired as well;

Digifriendly

mfceiling wrote: »

Paddy Jackson has retired...

Bit young for that I would say

the_doctor199

mfceiling wrote: »

Paddy Jackson has retired...

He's retired and Paddy Wallace is going to play 10 this year instead

bilston

I think that we'll do ok this season. We've lost a few players, but Muller was on his last legs as a player, Callum Black was very close to overtaking Court as first choice LH anyway, Afoa was never here, Ferris and Wallace hadn't really played for over a year and losing Humphreys as DoR will have zero impact on the team. As for Anscombe leaving, there are many who believe this to be a good thing. We haven't made any stellar signings to replace those leaving but there appear to be some astute acquisitions nonetheless.

Europe is very hard to predict, with three best runners up progressing to the last eight added to the fact that most of the pools are tougher than before it's not inconceivable that a team could progress with just three wins, albeit with a few bonus points to boot. Leicester, Toulon and the Scarlets represents a tough pool for us but we are capable of winning our home games and nicking a win in Wales. It will be very hard though and just qualifying will be an achievement.

I'm happier to make a firmer prediction about the Pro 12. I think we should be targeting it in a big way and actually I'd be disappointed if we don't reach the final. Nobody in the league is better than us, or at least not to the point where we can't beat them on any given day. Leinster will be rightly favourites, Glasgow will fancy their chances of kicking on and Munster will be tough, the Welsh sides have lost a lot of talent, although I notice a lot of pundits backing Cardiff to do well, I also think the Dragons could finish significantly higher than in the past, but nobody in this league should scare Ulster in the slightest.

Player wise there is big pressure on Wiebhan Herbst, it seems that the pre season signs are encouraging, if he can help us have solid foundations up front then we have a lethal backline to exploit good ball. Our first choice back row and our first choice half backs simply have to stay fit, we have a bit of depth at No.8 but if we lose Diack, Henry, Pienaar or Jackson for the big games then we're snookered. I guess Marshall and Humphreys are capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat on a one off occasion but if they are required consistently then forget it. That said Humphreys is an improvement on James McKinney and his return might aid a better Pro 12 showing.

As for the emerging talent I'm hoping Andrew Warwick kicks on from a promising start last season and I desperately want to see Stuart Olding back in the team as well, he could add some much needed spark to our midfield which was at times predictable last season. Hopefully this is Rory Scholes's breakthrough season and keep an eye out for Sean O'Hagan who Connacht fans will know all about, he might well get a few caps under his belt when Jackson is away as backup to Ian Humphreys.

Just getting out of the pool in Europe will be and achievement but if ulster do that then who knows what might happen in the knockout stages. Domestically I predict Ulster will reach the Pro 12 final.

Expecting a decent season from this chap. He's done well so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEh2X5k8Okk

bilston

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Expecting a decent season from this chap. He's done well so far.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEh2X5k8Okk

Good shout although he is probably third choice behind Marshall and Olding. Different player to the other two so he will be a great option.

bilston

bilston wrote: »

Good shout although he is probably third choice behind Marshall and Olding. Different player to the other two so he will be a great option.

There's a quarter of the Pro12 season that those players won't be around for. That's a fair bit of gametime for McCloskey to keep on the upward path.

damianmcr

I think we will win the Pro12 this season.