The FPL Knee Jerk/Bandwagon Thread

zarquon

Decided to start a thread as an interesting way of keeping record of players with the most transfers in and most transfers out in a round and their scores in the subsequent GW.

The only criteria is that the players are available to play in the subsequent Gameweek, either in the starting 11 or bench. Injured players will be excluded.

The purpose will be to provide data throughout the year with analysis and discussion on how effective it is to move on transfer in/out bandwagons and the associated points win/loss potential.

Data is based on gross transfers only. Net transfers are not taking into account due to teams not featuring in both the in and out figures for the same player.
Will update the OP with results from each Gameweek starting from the baseline of Gameweek 2.

Gameweek 2
Most transferred out = Mata. GW 3 points = 10
Most transferred in = Sigurdsson. GW 3 points = 5

Gameweek 3
Most transferred out = Costa. GW 3 points = 12
Most transferred in = Jovetic. GW 3 points = 2

Ziegler1988

Costa had 102000 transfers in, 173000 out so net 71000 out this GW. Shouldn't that put Bojan as most transferred out that's fit?

zarquon

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Costa had 102000 transfers in, 173000 out so net 71000 out this GW. Shouldn't that put Bojan as most transferred out that's fit?

Good point. I should have clarified that i am referring only to the gross transfer in or not, not the net. The reasoning is that some who transfers in will generally not transfer out and vice versa. The idea to to analyze the effectiveness of following the most popular trends and the benefit or loss to one's team.

Will update OP to clarify

Iused2likebusts

zarquon wrote: »

Decided to start a thread as an interesting way of keeping record of players with the most transfers in and most transfers out in a round and their scores in the subsequent GW.

The only criteria is that the players are available to play in the subsequent Gameweek, either in the starting 11 or bench. Injured players will be excluded.

The purpose will be to provide data throughout the year with analysis and discussion on how effective it is to move on transfer in/out bandwagons and the associated points win/loss potential.

Data is based on gross transfers only. Net transfers are not taking into account due to teams not featuring in both the in and out figures for the same player.
Will update the OP with results from each Gameweek starting from the baseline of Gameweek 2.

Gameweek 2
Most transferred out = Mata. GW 3 points = 10
Most transferred in = Sigurdsson. GW 3 points = 5

Gameweek 3
Most transferred out = Costa. GW 4 points = ?
Most transferred in = Jovetic. GW 4 points = ?

Siggy now ahead of mata there is no point in judging the success or failure of a bandwagon/kneejerk on 1 wk .

zarquon

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Siggy now ahead of mata there is no point in judging the success or failure of a bandwagon/kneejerk on 1 wk .

Agreed. There are long term reasons but the point is that the transfers in question may have been made at a more optimal time. In the last 2 gameweeks the most transferred out players have gone on to be one of the biggest scorers in the following gameweek. Considering the game has tight margins picking the right time to make a transfer is key and thus far the masses are missing the mark.

Lemlin

zarquon wrote: »

Agreed. There are long term reasons but the point is that the transfers in question may have been made at a more optimal time. In the last 2 gameweeks the most transferred out players have gone on to be one of the biggest scorers in the following gameweek. Considering the game has tight margins picking the right time to make a transfer is key and thus far the masses are missing the mark.

The masses thought that Costa was injured this week. But for that news I imagine he would have had very few transfers out.

zarquon

Lemlin wrote: »

The masses thought that Costa was injured this week. But for that news I imagine he would have had very few transfers out.

True, but the injury was never confirmed via an official source. The panic spread because a tabloid reported he was out for 6 weeks. Costa is key to my plans so i would never ship him unless their was a verified injury. It was foolish to take an unconfirmed injury rumour as fact.

He is a beast and a season keeper imo.

It's looking like Rooney could be the big transfer out this window. If the current trend continues he will score big at QPR. Unfortunately Aguero is a long term plan for me so i might join the masses and expedite the move.

Lemlin

zarquon wrote: »

True, but the injury was never confirmed via an official source. The panic spread because a tabloid reported he was out for 6 weeks. Costa is key to my plans so i would never ship him unless their was a verified injury. It was foolish to take an unconfirmed injury rumour as fact.

"Unconfirmed injury rumour"? Mourinho and Chelsea confirmed on Friday that Costa was a "big doubt".

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/diego-costa-injury-jose-mourinho-says-chelsea-are-trying-everything-they-can-to-have-striker-fit-for-everton-clash-9699952.html

But the 25-year-old suffered a minor muscle injury on Thursday and is now battling to be fit for the game on Saturday evening.
Speaking at his pre-match press conference, the Chelsea manager said: "We are trying everything for him to play tomorrow. He didn't train for the last two days. Today is the last day."
The Chelsea manager, who also admitted he needed to sell at least one foreign player, confirmed that Costa would not be starting the match even if he passes a fitness test.
"If the reaction is positive he could be on the bench, if not, we don't select him," he added. "At the moment, I don't know.
"He is a big doubt, let's see. Everyone else is fit."

My point is that you're going to have to take into account in this data that outside factors will also effect transfers in/out.

I agree with Busts and that's why I thanked his post above tbh, no transfer can be rated on one week. Those who were praising Mata last week are now shipping him out themselves.

So can it be said that those who transferred him out the week before and saved value made the correct decision and were just unlucky with his GW2 return? It certainly appears so given his value is now set to plummet.

the incredible pudding

Lemlin wrote: »

So can it still be said that those who transferred him out the week before and saved value made the correct decision and were just unlucky with his GW2 return?

Unlucky with his return? No. Mata has scored with that level of consistency to make his return somewhat expected. He was up against relatively poor opposition and is a player who has scored well so I don't think it was a fortunate result for those who kept their faith in him.

Was it the correct decision? Probably yes! :pac:

kronsington

I'd never really looked at the bandwagon knee jerk transfers before but some of the movement of players is utterly ridiculous!

segadreamcast

zarquon wrote: »

Decided to start a thread as an interesting way of keeping record of players with the most transfers in and most transfers out in a round and their scores in the subsequent GW.

The only criteria is that the players are available to play in the subsequent Gameweek, either in the starting 11 or bench. Injured players will be excluded.

The purpose will be to provide data throughout the year with analysis and discussion on how effective it is to move on transfer in/out bandwagons and the associated points win/loss potential.

Data is based on gross transfers only. Net transfers are not taking into account due to teams not featuring in both the in and out figures for the same player.
Will update the OP with results from each Gameweek starting from the baseline of Gameweek 2.

Gameweek 2
Most transferred out = Mata. GW 3 points = 10
Most transferred in = Sigurdsson. GW 3 points = 5

Gameweek 3
Most transferred out = Costa. GW 4 points = 12
Most transferred in = Jovetic. GW 4 points = 2

This is GW3, not 4. You need to adjust your bits above ..? Just could confuse if you don't nip it now.