September 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Perhaps you'll fall for the September forecast contest, with a link to the entry form below the usual guide:

1. IMT for the five stations, 1981-2010 average was 13.2

2. MAX for the met.ie stations.

3. MIN for the met.ie stations.

4. PRC (rainfall) as % of normal for the eleven stations used.

5. SUN as % of normal for the six stations used.

6. BONUS -- Based on a suggestion from rikand these bonus questions (two parts) will give a forecast for the date and nearby venue of the All-Ireland senior football championship match and if that isn't actually on the 21st, like happened once before, too bad we'll predict this weather anyway ...

Part 1 -- the max temp at Phoenix Park on the 21st, and
Part 2 -- the rainfall in mm at Phoenix Park on the 21st.

(just numbers, e.g. 17.2 and 5.3 in the two separate boxes provided in the form which is at this link ...)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Enter without penalty by 0300h Tuesday 2nd September, penalties will revert to the usual 5 pts per half day as we have this thread up and running with time to spare.

Good luck, August scoring will probably be finished on the 2nd this time around due more to my holidays than their holidays (Monday 1st here is Labour Day, the one day that nobody works!).

M.T. Cranium

I jumped in first, the water is warm.

Bsal

The water wasn't that warm but its Done

John mac

Done.

omicron

Done

Fr_Dougal

Done

lostinashford

Done

dasa29

done

DOCARCH

Done

rameire

done

Rikand

Done

pauldry

Done

okla

Done

Jpmarn

Done, I think the water would be warmer than normal but not as hot as M.T.

waterways

Done. Mt I hope you will beat consensus this month.

Tae laidir

Done

mickger844posts

bit late but done

dacogawa

Done, apologies better late than never...

M.T. Cranium

Forecasts for September 2014


FORECASTER _________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN ___ PRC __ SUN ___ Wx 21st PP

M. T. Cranium ________ 15.5 __ 28.5 __ -1.0 ___ 040 __ 170 ___ 22.2 _ 0.0
jd __________________14.9 __ 24.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 092 __ 108 ___ 17.2 _ 0.0
lostinashford _________ 14.7 __ 25.6 __ -0.7 ___ 070 __ 115 ___ 18.5 _ 0.4
Jpmarn ______________14.5 __ 24.7 ___ 0.5 ___091 __ 122 ___ 19.5 _ 1.5
waterways ___________14.3 __ 23.0 __ -2.0 ___ 071 __ 124 ___ 17.7 _ 0.0
Dacogawa (-15) _______14.2 __ 25.2 __ -1.4 ___ 086 __ 110 ___ 16.1 _ 3.1
Okla ________________14.2 __ 22.6 __ -1.1 ___ 070 __ 120 ___ 16.4 _ 1.5
sunflower3 ___________14.2 __ 22.3 ___ 1.5 ___ 082 __ 111 ___ 19.4 _ 0.0
mickger844posts (-5)___14.1 __ 23.5 ___ 2.1 ___ 090 __ 115 ___ 17.4 _ 0.0
omicron _____________14.0 __ 25.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 080 __ 120 ___ 18.0 _ 0.0
Thezohan ____________14.0 __ 24.0 ___ 1.0 ___ 095 __ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

Con Sensus __________ 14.0 __ 23.1 ___ 0.1 ___ 084 __ 110 ___ 17.8 _ 0.2

Johnmac ____________ 13.9 __ 24.2 ___ 0.2 ___ 105 __ 108 ___ 22.1 _ 0.0
Joe Public ___________ 13.8 __ 22.9 ___ 2.9 ___ 075 __ 120 ___ 17.9 _ 4.0
DOCARCH ___________ 13.5 __ 23.2 __ -1.8 ___ 095 __ 105 ___ 19.2 _ 0.0
rikand ______________ 13.5 __ 23.1 __ -1.3 ___ 080 __ 125 ___ 19.0 _ 0.2
pauldry _____________ 13.5 __ 23.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 090 __ 090 ___ 19.0 _ 4.0
kindredspirit _________ 13.5 __ 21.8 __ -1.0 ___ 095 __ 105 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0
200motels ___________13.4 __ 22.9 ___ 3.9 ___ 070 __ 120 ___ 18.6 _ 0.0
rameire _____________ 13.4 __ 22.7 ___ 0.1 ___ 080 __ 085 ___ 18.1 _ 0.1
Tae laidir ____________13.3 __ 21.7 __ -2.1 ___ 072 __ 090 ___ 15.5 _ 2.2
dasa29 _____________ 13.0 __ 24.0 ___ 2.0 ___ 110 __ 090 ___ 21.0 _ 2.0
Bsal ________________12.8 __ 21.1 __ -2.7 ___ 091 __ 097 ___ 13.0 _ 0.5
_____________________________________________

The consensus appears to be on the warm, dry and sunny side of normal, and this probably extends to the bonus question as well. With almost half the field looking for a dry day on the 21st, will probably go 7 pts temp and 3 pts rainfall on that one.

Current time penalty is 20%, will be 25% after 0300h tonight.

All scoring is up to date in the August thread. Rikand continues to lead and has almost caught up to Con Sensus now.

Tae laidir

Con's PRC a touch high?

M.T. Cranium

I checked it, not sure if you spotted an error or just commenting on the number itself, but anyway, I miscounted and dropped the precip from 90 to 84 per cent, it's supposed to be the median value so the average of 11th and 12th highest. Could change again if we get any late forecasts.

pauldry

I see Shannon got 23.9c provisional

pauldry

Also 38 mm of rain in Shannon yesterday. NOT A MISPRINT

Harps

Sorry I missed this month, not had a lot of free time recently so my online time has been almost non-existent

Am I right in saying that its still the best 10 months that are counted?

Rikand

Looks that way from the august scoring table. MT was ranking people best six scores out of eight.

So you should be grand harps

M.T. Cranium

After seven days,

IMT was 14.3

MAX 23.9, MIN 2.1 but last night will prove lower (saw an hourly of 1 C at 06)

PRC 25% almost all of which is thanks to Shannon being under a heavy shower on Friday 5th, otherwise it would be 5%

SUN only 81% despite plenty of sunshine on a few days, that should improve.

M.T. Cranium

Can confirm 1.0 C at Mountdillon early Monday.

Just doing some math on the sunshine, three days at 200% added to seven at 80% gives 116% after ten days. Just as a rough guide to trends. Probably down to 20% on PRC now.

Rikand

Mercy rule for PRC

M.T. Cranium

If it was under 65% yes, if around 70 then possibly a slight adjustment required but there are a lot of fairly low predictions. The rule works like this for precip -- the scoring (out of 15) must exceed 13,12,11,10, then two at each of 9,8 etc. Wherever it fails to reach this "minimum progression" the numbers are bumped up. In the past this has led to situations where you have a blend of actual and adjusted scores.

Fr_Dougal

Rikand wrote: »

Mercy rule for PRC

What's the mercy rule?

M.T. Cranium

In the contests, we have a rule informally called the mercy rule and formally known as "minimum progression of scoring."

For each category, there's a formula that is used to guarantee that scores for that month will exceed a certain minimum which, from experience with more normal situations, is a little less than what is often seen in scoring.

Example, in a normal situation, scores (out of 15) for the rainfall portion might run something like 15, 14,14, 13,13,13, 12, 11,11,11, 10,10 etc if we ranked all the scores. But in an odd situation with a large anomaly, even the best scores might only be 5 or so, then a few more very low ones and basically most of the field at zero despite the fact that some people were considerably closer than others to the actual number.

So to correct that (and also to make the months more equal in scoring which is a consideration given that we take best ten out of twelve) I go from a formula of minimum downward progression of scores. For precip, as mentioned in previous post, this is 13,12,11,10,10,9,9 etc down to 1,1, then everyone else zero.

This can sometimes be a matter of tweaking existing scores that are almost the same, or bumping a lot of small scores upward, or some other combination.

What may happen this month is that precip could come in much lower than almost any forecast which will invoke the "mercy rule" and produce scores that at least reward those who went relatively low more than those who didn't.

M.T. Cranium

At the half-way point (after 15 days) ...

IMT was 13.7 C

PRC only 13% after eight days that averaged about 2% of normal values (essentially the whole month dry apart from one deluge at Shannon, a bit of rain at Malin Head and a few cases of light rain or drizzle). This has obviously got to come up somewhat but now requires 150% normal just to achieve 80% for the month.

SUN meanwhile has been working overtime and the monthly percentage is now up around 130% of normal.

Tae laidir

At 14:00 the temperature reached a maximum of 18.0 degrees in nearby Phoenix Park.
The mighty Northerners were unable to deal with such lofty temperatures in September, which were the norm of their southern foes.
The Donegal men hoped and prayed for a loose 'greasy' ball to save their day, but neither the gods nor the clouds sent the a single drop all day.

Rikand

Max points for omicron

M.T. Cranium

OMG Omicron, are you sure you're not from the future? You get two extra points for a perfect effort.

As mentioned earlier, if the day was dry (which it was) then we would go with seven points on temps and three on rainfall. All the zero rain forecasts will get three, anyone with 0.1 to 0.5 mm will get two points, anyone from 0.6 to 2.5 will get one point. The temperature forecasts will be divided into eight groups of three running from 7 down to 0.

The IMT is currently around 14.0 C, precip looks like it might struggle up to double digits anyway, and sunshine could be anything cuz I have not been checking, but my guess is a finishing value around 120. Taking the current extremes of 23.9, 0.8and estimating 14.2 for IMT, 30% prc and 120% sun, these would be the provisional scores. Subject to considerable change. Note that precip is scored by mercy rule but I feel that my 40% deserves 14, don't you? The rest of mine is shyte anyway.

Scores for now remain in the forecast table order, essentially because it makes it easier to update this table later on.


Provisional scoring for September 2014

FORECASTER ________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN ___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

M. T. Cranium ________ 12 __ 00 __ 02 __ 14*__ 00 ___ 0 _ 3 _______ 31
jd __________________18 __ 17 __ 13 __ 05*__ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 69
lostinashford _________ 20 __ 03 __ 05 __ 12*__ 09 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 57
Jpmarn ______________22 __ 12 __ 17 __ 05*__ 10 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 70
waterways ___________24 __ 11 __ 00 __ 11* __ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 _+1 ___ 65
Dacogawa (-15) _______25 __ 07 __ 00 __ 07*__ 08 ___ 3 _ 0 __50-15=35
Okla ________________25 __ 07 __ 01 __ 12*__ 10 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 59
sunflower3 ___________25 __ 04 __ 13 __ 08*__ 10 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 67
mickger844posts (-5)___24 __ 16 __ 07 __ 06*__ 09 ___ 6 _ 3 +1 72-5 =67
omicron _____________23 __ 09 __ 08 __ 09*__ 10 ___ 7 _ 3 _+2 ___ 71
Thezohan ____________23 __ 19 __ 18 __ 04*__ 08 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 80

Con Sensus __________ 23 __ 12 __ 13 __ 07*__ 08 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 71

Johnmac ____________ 22 __ 17 __ 14 __ 02*__ 08 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 67
Joe Public ___________ 21 __ 10 __ 00 __ 10* __ 10 ___ 7 _ 0 _______ 48
DOCARCH ___________ 18 __ 13 __ 00 __ 04*__ 07 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 49
rikand ______________ 18 __ 12 __ 00 __ 09*__ 09 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 55
pauldry _____________ 18 __ 11 __ 12 __ 06*__ 04 ___ 5 _ 0 _______ 56
kindredspirit _________ 18 __ 00 __ 02 __ 04*__ 07 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 36
200motels ___________17 __ 10 __ 00 __ 12*__ 10 ___ 6 _ 3 _ +1___ 49
rameire _____________17 __ 08 __ 13 __ 09*__ 03 ___ 7 _ 2 _ +1 ___ 60
Tae laidir ____________16 __ 00 __ 00 __ 11*__ 04 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 34
dasa29 _____________ 13 __ 19 __ 08 __ 01*__ 04 ___ 1 _ 1 _______ 47
Bsal ________________11 __ 00 __ 00 __ 05*__ 05 ___ 0 _ 2 _______ 23
_____________________________________________

So, it looks like Thezohan was in the zone this month, with omicron matching the rampaging and butt-kicking Con Sensus (grr), but these scores could change a bit especially if we have a much different sunshine figure.

omicron

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

OMG Omicron, are you sure you're not from the future? You get two extra points for a perfect effort.

As mentioned earlier, if the day was dry (which it was) then we would go with seven points on temps and three on rainfall. All the zero rain forecasts will get three, anyone with 0.1 to 0.5 mm will get two points, anyone from 0.6 to 2.5 will get one point. The temperature forecasts will be divided into eight groups of three running from 7 down to 0.

The IMT is currently around 14.0 C, precip looks like it might struggle up to

I think I'd go with lotto numbers rather than weather forecasts if I was from the future!!!

M.T. Cranium

You'd have time for both, surely?

M.T. Cranium

The MS has not appeared yet today, can confirm that the IMT was 14.1 C and the precip will be close to 27% of normal (despite almost normal at Shannon).

Will update the scoring table when I have the rest of the data.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for September 2014

FORECASTER ________ IMT__MAX__MIN__PRC__SUN ___ Bonus _____ TOTALS

Actual values_________ 14.1__23.9___0.8__027__114__18.0,0.0

Thezohan ____________24 __ 19 __ 18 __ 04*__ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 82

Con Sensus __________ 24 __ 12 __ 13 __ 07*__ 09 ___ 6 _ 2 _______ 73

omicron _____________24 __ 09 __ 08 __ 09*__ 09 ___ 7 _ 3_+2_____71
jd __________________17 __ 17 __ 13 __ 05*__ 09 ___ 5 _ 3 _______ 69
Johnmac ____________ 23 __ 17 __ 14 __ 02*__ 09 ___ 1 _ 3 _______ 69
mickger844posts (-5)___25 __ 16 __ 07 __ 06*__ 10 ___ 6 _ 3+1_74-5=69
Jpmarn ______________21 __ 12 __ 17 __ 05*__ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 _______ 68
sunflower3 ___________24 __ 04 __ 13 __ 08*__ 09 ___ 4 _ 3 ________65
waterways ___________23 __ 11 __ 00 __ 11* __ 08 ___ 6 _ 3_+1____ 63
rameire _____________ 18 __ 08 __ 13 __ 09*__ 04 ___ 7 _ 2_+1 ____ 62
200motels ___________18 __ 10 __ 00 __ 12*__ 09 ___ 6 _ 3_+1 ____ 59
Joe Public ___________ 22 __ 10 __ 00 __ 10* __ 09 ___ 7 _ 0 _______ 58
pauldry _____________ 19 __ 11 __ 12 __ 06*__ 05 ___ 5 _ 0 ________58
lostinashford _________ 19 __ 03 __ 05 __ 12*__ 10 ___ 6 _ 2 ________57
Okla ________________24 __ 07 __ 01 __ 12*__ 09 ___ 3 _ 1 ________57
rikand ______________ 19 __ 12 __ 00 __ 09*__ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 _______ 55
DOCARCH ___________ 19 __ 13 __ 00 __ 04*__ 08 ___ 4 _ 3 _______ 51
dasa29 _____________ 14 __ 19 __ 08 __ 01*__ 05 ___ 1 _ 1 _______ 49
kindredspirit _________ 19 __ 00 __ 02 __ 04*__ 08 ___ 2 _ 3 _______ 38
Tae laidir ____________17 __ 00 __ 00 __ 11*__ 05 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 36
Dacogawa (-15) ______ 24 __ 07 __ 00 __ 07*__ 09 ___ 3 _ 0 __50-15=35
M. T. Cranium ________11 __ 00 __ 02 __ 14*__ 00 ___ 0 _ 3 _______ 30
Bsal ________________12 __ 00 __ 00 __ 05*__ 07 ___ 0 _ 2 _______ 26
_____________________________________________

Just a few minor revisions (and two upward corrections for original adding mistakes) as all provisionals were close, sunshine generally gave one extra point to most of the field ... congrats to TheZohan for outshining Con Sensus, honourable mention to omicron, the field closely packed in most cases.

Annual scoring update to follow.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update through September 2014

Table ranking is now based on annual (Boards) best 7 out of 9, the first number shows your rank in the MTC all-entries division.

Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S ___ TOTAL ___ Best 7/9 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 __ 623 ____ 519 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 __ 596 ____ 494 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- __ 536 ____ 479 (2)
05 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 __ 523 ____ 463 (3)
03 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 __ 532 ____ 442 (4)
07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 __ 514 ____ 440 (5)

08 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 __ 510 ____ 440 (5)
06 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 __ 519 ____ 434 (7)
09 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 __ 504 ____ 427 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 __ 526____ 426 (9)
11 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 __ 491____ 425 (10)

12 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 __ 487 ____ 420 (11)
21 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 __ 415 ____ 415 (12)
10 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 __ 493 ____ 412 (13)
18 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 __ 440 ____ 404 (14)
16 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 __ 448 ____ 399 (15)

13 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 __ 477 ____ 398 (16)
14 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 __ 476 ____ 390 (17)
15 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 __ 450 ____ 379 (18)
17 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 __ 445 ____ 378 (19)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- __ 375 ____ 375 (20)

20 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 __ 419 ____ 367 (21)
19 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 __ 420 ____ 364 (22)
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 351
24 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 255
25 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236

26 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- __ 227 ____ 211 (23)
27 _The Zohan _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 __ 226
28 _homolumo ______58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- __ 163
29 _Robxxx7 _______ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ -- _ --- _ --- _ ---__ 136
30 _sunflower3_____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ -- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 __129

31 _seafields _______ 40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---__ 123
32 _melanoma ______39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- __ 94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55

36 _octo __________47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___47
37 _rebelcork _____ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
38 _drdidlittle _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- ___ 40
39 _billcarson _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 39
40 _aimsir ________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---___ 28
________________________________________________________

The two different contests have tightened up considerably as most of the top five scored lower than those in the chase pack this month. In fact, despite missing the month, Harps retained second place in the MTC as well as the Boards divisions.

Tae laidir

36 :eek:
Seemed so logical on 1st September!