House prices rising in Commuter towns

The Spider

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

http://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/auctioneers-report-rise-in-viewings-and-sales-30413530.html

People can't afford Dublin and are moving out, Kildare has gone past value at this stage, Gorey, is on the outer limits of a commute down the east coast. But still value there.

http://www.thejournal.ie/price-of-a-three-bedroom-home-rising-faster-1540626-Jun2014/

Other towns picking up the pace, inevitable as people can't buy in Dublin, or at the very least can't buy the type of house in the area they want. it just depends on how quickly you come to that realisation and how quickly you act on it.

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

the supply issue could be tackled a lot quicker than that time frame if the government will was there which its not sadly for first time buyers, renters and the homeless.

I wonder how pee'd off these people will be being forced to go so far from friends and family to have somewhere decent to live and the time and money spent commuting

elections should be interesting, no wonder the government is trying to buy off public servants again!

suppose its good news for the commuters with rising prices though, should help towards getting back to Dublin!

The Spider

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

the supply issue could be tackled a lot quicker than that time frame if the government will was there which its not sadly for first time buyers, renters and the homeless.

I wonder how pee'd off these people will be being forced to go so far from friends and family to have somewhere decent to live and the time and money spent commuting

elections should be interesting, no wonder the government is trying to buy off public servants again!

suppose its good news for the commuters with rising prices though, should help towards getting back to Dublin!

Live in Gorey so interest declared, not from Dublin, work there, but have no interest in getting back, just on a side note the amount of people around Gorey with Dublin accents is unreal to the point where I find it unusual when I hear a Wexford accent, and I'm talking all hues of Dublin accent, from D4 to D8 or D15.

I know it's summer and there's usually a few more around but, it seems to be all year round. Gorey is constantly buzzing, in terms of restaurants and pubs and when a shop closes down another one is in it's place in days, unlike Arklow, which seems to be constantly boarded up.

And I say that as an observation not as everyone should come live in Gorey, just find it surreal how quickly businesses open up.

quadrifoglio verde

What I'm shocked about is how easy people forget.
Fine if they want to live miles away from family and friends for the rest of their lives, but if it's just so they can say they own a house, no thanks.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

Live in Gorey so interest declared, not from Dublin, work there, but have no interest in getting back, just on a side note the amount of people around Gorey with Dublin accents is unreal to the point where I find it unusual when I hear a Wexford accent, and I'm talking all hues of Dublin accent, from D4 to D8 or D15.

I know it's summer and there's usually a few more around but, it seems to be all year round. Gorey is constantly buzzing, in terms of restaurants and pubs and when a shop closes down another one is in it's place in days, unlike Arklow, which seems to be constantly boarded up.

I'd say half of the people I know who decided to 'do the commute' where happy with the decision in the long run, I think it depends on the person/people, it wouldn't be for me though.

I was in navan town a few weeks back and it might as well been finglas with the amount of Dublin accents around the place, it was weird

TheDriver

Indeed people are forgetting very quickly.....

ionapaul

The Spider wrote: »

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

http://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/auctioneers-report-rise-in-viewings-and-sales-30413530.html

People can't afford Dublin and are moving out, Kildare has gone past value at this stage, Gorey, is on the outer limits of a commute down the east coast. But still value there.

http://www.thejournal.ie/price-of-a-three-bedroom-home-rising-faster-1540626-Jun2014/

Other towns picking up the pace, inevitable as people can't buy in Dublin, or at the very least can't buy the type of house in the area they want. it just depends on how quickly you come to that realisation and how quickly you act on it.

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

If there are another 5 years of sustained increases from here surely you (and me and everyone in the country) don't need to guess what will happen? Another crazy boom will be followed by another crazy bust!

I'm saying that as someone looking for a place to buy right now, hoping we are at the top of the market for the foreseeable future. Another few years of 5%+ rises will mean a subsequent decade of misery as sure as night follows day.

The Spider

ionapaul wrote: »

If there are another 5 years of sustained increases from here surely you (and me and everyone in the country) don't need to guess what will happen? Another crazy boom will be followed by another crazy bust!

I'm saying that as someone looking for a place to buy right now, hoping we are at the top of the market for the foreseeable future. Another few years of 5%+ rises will mean a subsequent decade of misery as sure as night follows day.

Yep I know what happened last time, could see it a mile off, the difference this time is that there's been no building since the bust, that's going on 6-7 years of supply that didn't happen, and people didn't buy as they waited.

There is no supply but massive demand, so prices will keep increasing until supply at least meets demand.

So you can use that in any assessment about whether to buy or where to buy, prices in Dublin won't come down for the foreseeable future, they can't unless everyone decides they don't want to buy a house.

The reason prices are rising in the commuter belt is that people have realised this, and are now getting the houses they want, rather than less of a house in the commuter belt in two years time.

I've noticed in the past two years down my neck of the woods that the great locations have been snapped up.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

There is no supply but massive demand, so prices will keep increasing until supply at least meets demand.

without doubt there is an imbalance with the supply and demand but I don't think anyone really knows how big it is.

we do know mortgage approvals are up on last year but not hugely, who knows how many cash buyers are out there or where they are even coming from.

the listed house numbers on daft or myhome aren't greatly below those listed from last year, the ppr does show a greater number of house being bought in the Dublin area this year up by maybe 200 per month...

a lot of this is media driven and of course people are going to panic, luckily enough this time round the credit isn't available to them to do too much damage to themselves but I'm sure they're sickened having to throw vast amounts of burrowed money from the last few years...

The Spider

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

without doubt there is an imbalance with the supply and demand but I don't think anyone really knows how big it is.

we do know mortgage approvals are up on last year but not hugely, who knows how many cash buyers are out there or where they are even coming from.

the listed house numbers on daft or myhome aren't greatly below those listed from last year, the ppr does show a greater number of house being bought in the Dublin area this year up by maybe 200 per month...

a lot of this is media driven and of course people are going to panic, luckily enough this time round the credit isn't available to them to do too much damage to themselves but I'm sure they're sickened having to throw vast amounts of burrowed money from the last few years...

I'd say apart from cash buyers, that there's plenty out there with deposits of between 60 and 120k, that'll go a long way towards convincing a bank to give you a mortgage.

EarnestH

This whole situation has not happened by accident. This housing bubble has been engineered by the governments in collusion with the banks - and it is working perfectly for them. The banks balance sheet is nicely improving just in time for the Autumn stress tests. And it works beautifully for Fine Gael's core voter - those living in leafy suburbs in Dublin who are in negative equity. The coping class (or the rich Irish as I like to call them).

True, the solution is new construction. But in my view, the biggest driver of this bubble is the lack of repossessions. If those who can't afford to pay their mortgage we repossessed there would be far less pressure on price. But repossessions are far too unpalatable for FG. So blame FG, yes. But blame the soul sucking parasites who living in the houses that rightfully should be on the market, if it weren't for our inept administration and its obsessive zeal with protecting the Rich Irish.

This bubble has been very carefully engineered by the FG elitist party.

Personally, I've given up on this silly little country.

_Kaiser_

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

What I'm shocked about is how easy people forget.
Fine if they want to live miles away from family and friends for the rest of their lives, but if it's just so they can say they own a house, no thanks.

Unfortunately the current problem isn't just related to those who want to "get on the property ladder" again, but also those who are renting and being forced to move further out by spiraling prices in that sector too.

markpb

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Unfortunately the current problem isn't just related to those who want to "get on the property ladder" again, but also those who are renting and being forced to move further out by spiraling prices in that sector too.

This.

It's not (necessarily) because people are rushing to buy a home or because they're stopped or forgetful. Rent is skyrocketing in Dublin and people are worried that they'll be forced to move in order to afford the rent. Moving is very difficult if you have kids who are or will be going to school. Telling someone they can no longer afford to live in Sandyford but Lucan (or further afield) is affordable is of no use if they move to Lucan and can't get a place in a school anywhere near there. This is the reality for many people I know right now.

lima

Had to look Gorey up, it's in the countryside

A lot of the 'sitting on the fence' people have moved on and are content with renting. There's no value in Dublin, but there's a hell of a lot of money people want to invest in property.

MouseTail

lima wrote: »

Had to look Gorey up, it's in the countryside

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

markpb

MouseTail wrote: »

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

Why do we want to satisfy peoples desire to live in areas that will be more expensive to bring utilities to, will have less facilities (leading to antisocial behaviour in the future) and are almost guaranteed to become car dependent because it won't be feasible for public transport to serve?

murphaph

MouseTail wrote: »

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

Or we could try building a mix of apartment types with quality communal spaces. I don't think we've really tried that yet except in planned new towns like Adamstown.

The Spider

Irish people don't want to live in apartments, and that's a fact. They want houses with gardens, given the choice between living on the third floor of an apartment block with kids, or living in the country and commuting in I know what I and many others would choose. This is being borne out by the rise in prices in these areas.

As soon as the motorway is finished, going down to Gorey especially from a southside location is really going to take no time at all, prices in locations all along that stretch will increase, that's all of Wicklow and North Wexford.

MouseTail

murphaph wrote: »

Or we could try building a mix of apartment types with quality communal spaces. I don't think we've really tried that yet except in planned new towns like Adamstown.

Are they mutually exclusive? An inner city (and I see that as inside the M50 as opposed to the canals) with high density housing and quality leisure and work spaces, and 21st century transport links to the GDA.

lima

MouseTail wrote: »

Are they mutually exclusive? An inner city (and I see that as inside the M50 as opposed to the canals) with high density housing and quality leisure and work spaces, and 21st century transport links to the GDA.

Unfortunately we don't have the public transport to deal with urban sprawl, it's not like the UK - when I lived in Surrey and Commuted into London for a while. I have friends pushed out of London and now live miles out but can get a train in in 30min. We only have a couple of train lines like that. I personally don't want to have to commute/drive every day as it takes away from quality of life.

Dublin's broken and it will not be fixed for 20-30 years. We should have had high rise apartments in the city built years ago, but I guess we were too poor in the 50's, 60's and 70's for that to happen, and we are now dealing with a rich city with a 'poor city' layout, with the effect that the city center is primarily comprised of little 1930's houses where there should be European post-war style apartment blocks. I don't know what the highly-paid, backwards looking jobs-for-the-boys old men are doing in the city planning offices!

Couple that with the lack of will to deal with cleaning up the bad parts of the city center - the North Inner-city and South-Inner City - these are places where high-density european-style apartments could (and should) have been built and I would be happy to live in a place like that. Unfortunately the only way for me to enjoy my ideal lifestyle (inner-city cosmopolitan living - I don't have kids yet) is to rent.

Mr. Loverman

The Spider wrote: »

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

The Spider wrote: »

Have another 5 years at least of increases

The Spider wrote: »

Yep I know what happened last time, could see it a mile off

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Eldarion

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Like his post on Boards even compares to the tripe the Meeja and other VIs spurt out on a daily basis in regards to the property market.

If people can't learn from events that occurred less than 6 years ago then they deserve to get burned this time around.

Peter File

Eldarion wrote: »

Like his post on Boards even compares to the tripe the Meeja and other VIs spurt out on a daily basis in regards to the property market.

If people can't learn from events that occurred less than 6 years ago then they deserve to get burned this time around.

Pretty much every post from the o.p is pushing the line that prices are going to keep rising. When will people realise that high house and apartment prices are very bad for the economy.
I wouldnt be too happy commuting to Dublin from Goreym an expensive and long commute

The Spider

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Ah yes the rage is strong in this one. Listen buddy I don't care where people buy, if they buy or not, up to them. Even Mc Williams is reluctantly agreeing that prices won't fall, People should buy where they're happy to live. If you're happy to live in Sandymount or Foxrock you should look at buying there.

The point I'm making is that people will move out of Dublin if they want to own, that simple. Prices won't come down, not enough supply and too much demand, nowhere to build inside the M50, unless you rezone Marley Park.

murphaph

If we had any cop on we'd move ahead with Dart Underground and get developing the vast tracts of land along the railway in west Dublin. Clonburris should be just the start. Any other city worth its salt would have heavily developed the lands adjacent to their mass transit corridors. I suppose we're lucky on that we can still do it and hit high density with good variety of unit type and size.

lima

murphaph wrote: »

If we had any cop on we'd move ahead with Dart Underground and get developing the vast tracts of land along the railway in west Dublin. Clonburris should be just the start. Any other city worth its salt would have heavily developed the lands adjacent to their mass transit corridors. I suppose we're lucky on that we can still do it and hit high density with good variety of unit type and size.

I guess there are too many vested interests in govt who have 14+ properties according to public sources - they want to restrict stock as much as possible to get their property to increase - It's Ireland

When there's a war on 100's of miles away there are protests in Dublin but when the public are getting slowly ripped off by the people they voted in no one bats an eyelid.

jackal

EarnestH wrote: »

This whole situation has not happened by accident. This housing bubble has been engineered by the governments in collusion with the banks - and it is working perfectly for them. The banks balance sheet is nicely improving just in time for the Autumn stress tests. And it works beautifully for Fine Gael's core voter - those living in leafy suburbs in Dublin who are in negative equity. The coping class (or the rich Irish as I like to call them).

True, the solution is new construction. But in my view, the biggest driver of this bubble is the lack of repossessions. If those who can't afford to pay their mortgage we repossessed there would be far less pressure on price. But repossessions are far too unpalatable for FG. So blame FG, yes. But blame the soul sucking parasites who living in the houses that rightfully should be on the market, if it weren't for our inept administration and its obsessive zeal with protecting the Rich Irish.

This bubble has been very carefully engineered by the FG elitist party.

Personally, I've given up on this silly little country.

Sorry but there is little to no appetite in the general public for large scale repossessions. Of course those that want to buy would love for a new supply tap to be opened, but the media and the opposition parties would crucify the government if they allowed mass evictions to happen.

Sure the media jumps on the few hardchaw cases that do actually get evicted and act like its the famine times again with heartfelt "woe is me" articles about the unlucky couple or whatever. Of course the stories are quietly dropped when it turns out the couple are property barons, chancers living for free, or simply idiots who chose not to repay and thought they would get a free ride.

So while I don't disagree that it suits the government, it is certainly not engineered. Repossesions would give endless ammunition to the opposition parties and there is always an election on the way.

Thargor

I dont know about that^ Jackal, people always say it but I think a few high profile 5-properties-collecting-rents but no payments for 4 years type case might quickly dull any sympathy from the public and let repossessions become commonplace. I was optimistic that was what was happening with those 2 chancers with their tent in the driveway out in Kiliney a while ago when the media and people before profit/occupy Dame st (who? lol) all rallied around them then were left with egg on their faces 24 hours later when it emerged they had 14 other properties dotted around the place but then it fizzled out and we were back to the norm.

Mr.McLovin

BTLs should have moved on along time ago, its scandalous when you think of it

Mr. Loverman

The Spider wrote: »

I don't care where people buy, if they buy or not, up to them.

I don't believe you. It is obvious you have an agenda.

Unfortunately I can tell by your post history you think you're smarter than everyone, but you're not. You're certainly not smarter than me as I can smell your bull**** a mile away.

jackal

Thargor wrote: »

I dont know about that^ Jackal, people always say it but I think a few high profile 5-properties-collecting-rents but no payments for 4 years type case might quickly dull any sympathy from the public and let repossessions become commonplace. I was optimistic that was what was happening with those 2 chancers with their tent in the driveway out in Kiliney a while ago when the media and people before profit/occupy Dame st (who? lol) all rallied around them then were left with egg on their faces 24 hours later when it emerged they had 14 other properties dotted around the place but then it fizzled out and we were back to the norm.

Well I think that just proves the point, no? I totally agree that the chancers should be brought to heel, but there seems to be an agreed agenda across the media in Ireland that eviction is bad, period. Every time something comes up the story is framed in an extremely sympathetic manner to the person under threat of eviction, and when the story turns out to not support the agenda it is quietly dropped. Most people do form their opinions from consuming news from media outlets, and they are the same people that make up the majority of the vote in elections.

You get small vocal groups like this protest group turning up at "distressed property" auctions, supported by populist TD's and managing to get agreements not to sell distressed assets... and this is a foreign based property group, who you think would not be too worried about bad PR. http://www.thejournal.ie/property-auction-abandoned-dublin-978695-Jul2013/

I just don't see it happening.

The Spider

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I don't believe you. It is obvious you have an agenda.

Unfortunately I can tell by your post history you think you're smarter than everyone, but you're not. You're certainly not smarter than me as I can smell your bull**** a mile away.

No pulling the wool over your eyes, I have a ghost estate in Kilmuckridge I'm trying to get shot of....

gaius c

The Spider wrote: »

I'd say apart from cash buyers, that there's plenty out there with deposits of between 60 and 120k, that'll go a long way towards convincing a bank to give you a mortgage.

You do a lot of "I'd say", don't you?
Definitely strengthens your imaginary no citation scenarios.

The Spider wrote: »

Ah yes the rage is strong in this one. Listen buddy I don't care where people buy, if they buy or not, up to them. Even Mc Williams is reluctantly agreeing that prices won't fall, People should buy where they're happy to live. If you're happy to live in Sandymount or Foxrock you should look at buying there.

The point I'm making is that people will move out of Dublin if they want to own, that simple. Prices won't come down, not enough supply and too much demand, nowhere to build inside the M50, unless you rezone Marley Park.

Drop the fake chumminess. We're not your buddies and it's an obvious attempt to distract from the demolition of your weak points.
You don't care yet you're here making threads to convince people of your ideas?
And there's plenty of space to build in Dublin but you know this already from previous discussions in this forum and we're going in circles here.

jackal wrote: »

Well I think that just proves the point, no? I totally agree that the chancers should be brought to heel, but there seems to be an agreed agenda across the media in Ireland that eviction is bad, period. Every time something comes up the story is framed in an extremely sympathetic manner to the person under threat of eviction, and when the story turns out to not support the agenda it is quietly dropped. Most people do form their opinions from consuming news from media outlets, and they are the same people that make up the majority of the vote in elections.

You get small vocal groups like this protest group turning up at "distressed property" auctions, supported by populist TD's and managing to get agreements not to sell distressed assets... and this is a foreign based property group, who you think would not be too worried about bad PR. http://www.thejournal.ie/property-auction-abandoned-dublin-978695-Jul2013/

I just don't see it happening.

The mood has very definitely changed. Larger media publications are still pushing "no repos" but read the comments. Despite a lot of "filtering", negative comments are still getting through.
Then go have a look at the lambasting the likes of Julia Godsill get on broadsheet. The people whose pips are squeaking in order to pay spiraling rents don't have a lot of sympathy for those living rent free and whining about it. There's a lot more of them than there are of delinquent debtors.
Likewise the sympathy for Brendan & Asta Kelly dried up very quickly once it was realized that they were gaming the system.
Look at the lambasting the Constant Markievicz crew got.

My suspicion is that there is an inherent editorial bias in Irish media because of the age profile of the persons involved and the likelihood that they are up to their necks in property related debt. Gay Byrne is in NAMA. Gerry Ryan was awash with debts. Pat Kenny is constantly giving airtime to folk who want you to pay their debts and never allowing a dissenting voice. And that's just non-print media. The "Middle Ireland fights back to defend their stud farms" headlines are going down like a lead balloon amongst the people being tapped up to pay for it.

Folks with an agenda want the whole process to happen in secret but seeing as it's rather a lot of our money, it's fairly critical that the process is open & transparent. I'd really like to not be having tribunals in 20 years time to discover how people scammed fellow taxpayers and are "too old to prosecute" for obvious fraud.

The Spider

gaius c wrote: »

You do a lot of "I'd say", don't you?
Definitely strengthens your imaginary no citation scenarios.

Drop the fake chumminess. We're not your buddies and it's an obvious attempt to distract from the demolition of your weak points.
You don't care yet you're here making threads to convince people of your ideas?
And there's plenty of space to build in Dublin but you know this already from previous discussions in this forum and we're going in circles here.

Please point out where it's weak, are prices rising in Dublin? Yes

Is there an undersupply of property at the moment in Dublin? Yes

Will it take years to build to meet the demand? Yes

Is rent currently rising in Dublin? Yes

Are commuter towns now experiencing price rises? Yes

Did the last boom go on for over 10 years? Yes

If someone wants to buy should they assess what their options are at the moment, or should they wait for notional land that may be released for building, or should they wait for non existent reposessions?

Only people going around in circles here are the ones that constantly talk about repos, that won't happen, or land that hasn't been marked for development being built on.

Fact is if you're in your mid thirties thinking about buying you have a short window before the bank will refuse or drastically reduce the mortgage available to you as you get older.

You can sit around and speculate about what should be done or speculate about what might happen, or you can see what options you have right now, wait for a year, that advice was given out on this site on that repossessions thread and here we are prices 20% up on last year when that thread was going.

So any advice about waiting it out from here should come with a health warning.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056898823

The above thread from 2013

What's actually happening in 2014

http://www.thejournal.ie/price-of-a-three-bedroom-home-rising-faster-1540626-Jun2014/

The_Morrigan

Folks if you don't cut out the personalised posts and petty squabbling I will lock this thread.

asingrang

Its interesting to go back to the posts for a few years of the people having a go at each other in this thread.
You can see who was right and who was wrong for sure, now that the mist is clearing.

My own view is that this is just the first part of an economic cycle upswing. It will reverse again in another 6 or 7 years.

MysticalRain

Once again we see The Spider posting threads here winding people up and pimping his agenda of stoking a property bubble 2.0 by panicking people into the kind of “get on the property ladder now, or you never will” mentality that got us into this mess in the first place. Not to mention encouraging renters, and FTB’s to live within their means and lower their expectations while vigorously defending mortgage defaulters who believe paying back what they owe should be an optional clause in the contract they signed. This is of course last kind of advice you should pay attention to in a forum like this one.

Not sure why buying in Gorey of all places could be perceived as an example of financial genius. It must be a hellish commute for anyone unfortunate the work within the M50 in Dublin. Now if he had snapped up a plush pad in D4 for a steal, that would be genius in my book. His dreams of dabbling in property may well end in tears if prices continue to increase at the current rate, and inevitably crash as badly as they did in the last bubble. Too bad the rest of us may end up having to pay it.

Yes, prices are rising at the moment, thanks to the same cabal of vested interests that got us into this mess the first time round (and profited handsomely from it). But remember folks, you can still find relative value with Dublin if you don’t panic and play the long game of looking for a bargain. If you’re a 20-something with time to play with, I’d sit this bubble out until the inevitable crash happen. Or better yet, emigrate to a country with a proper functioning economy that doesn't revolve around relentless property bubbles.

asingrang

From my own memory there have been 2 major periods of economic doldrums in Ireland, One bubble and one major property crash.
And im only 45. I wouldnt be old enough to remember what came before the 80s as i was only a child, but going back further you get into world wars, world energy crisis and all the rest.

So I remember them clear as day.
There are always cycles. Thats just a fact.
When the economy is motoring ahead house prices motor ahead.
When the government interfere, they cause untold damage.

This will swing the other way again in 5 - 8 years or so, be it because of property over supply or an economic crash somewhere along the line.

If they start interfering now and throw heaps of properties on the market they will overdo it and cause the next big crash, and all those who thought they were getting helped will be the ones to suffer. They should just leave it alone. Prices will come to a point where there is balance by themselves. There should be no government interference.

Celly Smunt

This is what happens when you build out rather than up. If the councils had a bit,of back bone or the balls to grant taller buildings there would be no bubble in dublin or elsewhere,allowing for affordable inner city living.There's an almost endless supply of land in the sky.

Also the Irish psyche that a property must have a front and back garden and four bedrooms hampers any kind of advancement in the area of housing.There is no more land to build on (in terms of estates and infrastructure) driving demand through the roof without the supply shifting at all.

Dublin needs to build up,spreading the commuter belt until it eventually hits galway is not a sustainable path.

Celly Smunt

asingrang wrote: »

If they start interfering now and throw heaps of properties on the market they will overdo it and cause the next big crash, and all those who thought they were getting helped will be the ones to suffer. They should just leave it alone. Prices will come to a point where there is balance by themselves. There should be no government interference.

Thats the problem,instead if allowing house prices fall due to extra supply the government does all it can to create an artificial floor.When that floor collapses then the whole economy collapses.

Zamboni

jackal wrote: »

Sorry but there is little to no appetite in the general public for large scale repossessions.

This is speculation as it has never been tested.
If the coalition asked for a repossession supporters demonstration in O'Connell St next weekend I doubt I'd be the only one standing there.

The historic concept of repossession is based upon Irish people being dispossessed of property from some evil British establishment.
This version/concept may be strong in the over 50's.

But the under 50's simply see people in extraordinary arrears enjoy the use of and retain possession of assets which for all intents and purposes should have been released to the market.

I've said it before here, I would speculate that the first party that publicly actively demands repossessions of unsustainable Mortgaged properties will gain first mover advantage on a significant portion of the electorate.

This is not a rich versus poor issue that is portrayed in the media.
There are advocates for personal responsibility across all political standpoints.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

Once again we see The Spider posting threads here winding people up and pimping his agenda of stoking a property bubble 2.0 by panicking people into the kind of “get on the property ladder now, or you never will” mentality that got us into this mess in the first place. Not to mention encouraging renters, and FTB’s to live within their means and lower their expectations while vigorously defending mortgage defaulters who believe paying back what they owe should be an optional clause in the contract they signed. This is of course last kind of advice you should pay attention to in a forum like this one.

Not sure why buying in Gorey of all places could be perceived as an example of financial genius. It must be a hellish commute for anyone unfortunate the work within the M50 in Dublin. Now if he had snapped up a plush pad in D4 for a steal, that would be genius in my book. His dreams of dabbling in property may well end in tears if prices continue to increase at the current rate, and inevitably crash as badly as they did in the last bubble. Too bad the rest of us may end up having to pay it.

Yes, prices are rising at the moment, thanks to the same cabal of vested interests that got us into this mess the first time round (and profited handsomely from it). But remember folks, you can still find relative value with Dublin if you don’t panic and play the long game of looking for a bargain. If you’re a 20-something with time to play with, I’d sit this bubble out until the inevitable crash happen. Or better yet, emigrate to a country with a proper functioning economy that doesn't revolve around relentless property bubbles.

Gorey is a bit of a drive but not exactly hellish, again not from Dublin so have no interest in living in D4, or any other part (well maybe Dalkey).

Now to your other points, I merely said from last year on that prices will keep rising, they have. I said there wouldn't be significant repos, there haven't been. I said rising prices would make people spend more in the economy and boost it, that's what's happening.

As to your advice about the long game all we'll and good, but if anyone had taken that advice last year, they'd be paying an extra 70 grand on a three bed in 2014 that cost 345 in 2013.

I see even in this thread a year and a half later people are still talking about repos, they won't happen.

I said last year that the only way for repos to happen was for prices to rise, in fact the only way to increase supply is for prices to rise. No one is going to sell an asset for less than its worth that goes for people and the banks.

Now before you or anyone decide to throw insults again (throw them if you want I don't particularly care.) Can you please point out where I've been wrong in the past year and a half, and where you and others hoping for repos have been right?

I see everyone predicting a crash in the early part of this year were spectacularly wrong.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

Gorey is a bit of a drive but not exactly hellish, again not from Dublin so have no interest in living in D4, or any other part (well maybe Dalkey).

Now to your other points, I merely said from last year on that prices will keep rising, they have. I said there wouldn't be significant repos, there haven't been. I said rising prices would make people spend more in the economy and boost it, that's what's happening.

As to your advice about the long game all we'll and good, but if anyone had taken that advice last year, they'd be paying an extra 70 grand on a three bed in 2014 that cost 345 in 2013.

I see even in this thread a year and a half later people are still talking about repos, they won't happen.

I said last year that the only way for repos to happen was for prices to rise, in fact the only way to increase supply is for prices to rise. No one is going to sell an asset for less than its worth that goes for people and the banks.

Now before you or anyone decide to throw insults again (throw them if you want I don't particularly care.) Can you please point out where I've been wrong in the past year and a half, and where you and others hoping for repos have been right?

I see everyone predicting a crash in the early part of this year were spectacularly wrong.

I can’t recall anyone here predicting a massive crash this year (note the strawman argument). Merely that prices wouldn’t rise 20% year on year, and there would be a levelling off. I’ll give you that. The crash will of course come sooner rather than later, so your long term advise about investing in property may not look like such a good bet.

The jury is still out on repos. That’s still a massive problem which isn’t going to go away anytime soon. We may yet see a flood of them. Banks are probably more likely to repossess if prices are rising.

I also think it’s too early in the current cycle to advise people give up on living in Dublin, and move out to the commuter belt. I’ve just gone sale agree on a bank repo myself in the city centre, and got it for a good enough deal at the current prices as the bank wanted to sell it quickly.

I said rising prices would make people spend more in the economy and boost it, that's what's happening.

We've been through these debates before on this forum. Correlation is not causation. The economy is picking up in spite of rising house prices, not because of it. If someone is paying 70,000 more for a family home this year, than they would have last year, they obviously had far less money to spend in the economy to begin with. Not to mention factors like property prices eroding our economic competitiveness, and driving businesses to the wall the wall with rising rents. Some people might gain, but most of us lose out if prices rise.

The Spider

MysticalRain wrote: »

I can’t recall anyone here predicting a massive crash this year (note the strawman argument). Merely that prices wouldn’t rise 20% year on year, and there would be a levelling off. I’ll give you that. The crash will of course come sooner rather than later, so your long term advise about investing in property may not look like such a good bet.

The jury is still out on repos. That’s still a massive problem which isn’t going to go away anytime soon. We may yet see a flood of them. Banks are probably more likely to repossess if prices are rising.

I also think it’s too early in the current cycle to advise people give up on living in Dublin, and move out to the commuter belt. I’ve just gone sale agree on a bank repo myself in the city centre, and got it for a good enough deal at the current prices as the bank wanted to sell it quickly.



We've been through these debates before on this forum. Correlation is not causation. The economy is picking up in spite of rising house prices, not because of it. If someone is paying 70,000 more for a family home this year, than they would have last year, they obviously had far less money to spend in the economy to begin with. Not to mention factors like property prices eroding our economic competitiveness, and driving businesses to the wall the wall with rising rents. Some people might gain, but most of us lose out if prices rise.

Seriously listen to yourself, I never said massive crash, I said crash, if you read through that repossessions thread you'll find it mentioned enough.

Now as to your point about a house costing seventy grand more leaving someone with less disposable income, true.

However the person he or she bought the house from is seventy grand richer. There's also the psychological effect of rising prices, meaning that owners feel richer and are more prepared to spend than save.

There's been numerous studies in the wealth effect look them up.

MysticalRain

The Spider wrote: »

Seriously listen to yourself, I never said massive crash, I said crash, if you read through that repossessions thread you'll find it mentioned enough.

Now as to your point about a house costing seventy grand more leaving someone with less disposable income, true.

However the person he or she bought the house from is seventy grand richer. There's also the psychological effect of rising prices, meaning that owners feel richer and are more prepared to spend than save.

There's been numerous studies in the wealth effect look them up.

Feel free to name examples of people saying that.

And as I state previously: rising house prices benefit the few, at the expense of the many. All this has been pointed out to you before, yet you continue to sing the same tune over and over again.

That 70 grand is paper wealth which may disappear again when the economy goes down the crapper yet again due to another property bubble.

Most home owners have no interest in selling their home to begin with. It’s simply a place to live in, not an asset to be flipped. So they will never realise that theoretical paper wealth.

If the home owner sells the house, they still end up paying for a similarly over priced house elsewhere (unless they’re downsizing, and even in that scenario they are probably still paying over the odds for the smaller place).

Some financially imprudent people may feel wealthier because their house is worth more than what they paid for it, and consequently use their house as a personal ATM machine to borrow against it for extensions, decking, new cards or foreign holiday. But we've all seen how well that worked out during the Celtic Tiger years. It simply landed people in even more financial debt they couldn’t afford to pay pack (although to be fair, it actually makes sense in your case if you genuinely feel that smucks like myself should be expected to pay off the debts of people like that).

asingrang

MysticalRain wrote: »

Feel free to name examples of people saying that.

And as I state previously: rising house prices benefit the few, at the expense of the many. All this has been pointed out to you before, yet you continue to sing the same tune over and over again.

That 70 grand is paper wealth which may disappear again when the economy goes down the crapper yet again due to another property bubble.

Most home owners have no interest in selling their home to begin with. It’s simply a place to live in, not an asset to be flipped. So they will never realise that theoretical paper wealth.

If the home owner sells the house, they still end up paying for a similarly over priced house elsewhere (unless they’re downsizing, and even in that scenario they are probably still paying over the odds for the smaller place).

Some financially imprudent people may feel wealthier because their house is worth more than what they paid for it, and consequently use their house as a personal ATM machine to borrow against it for extensions, decking, new cards or foreign holiday. But we've all seen how well that worked out during the Celtic Tiger years. It simply landed people in even more financial debt they couldn’t afford to pay pack (although to be fair, it actually makes sense in your case if you genuinely feel that smucks like myself should be expected to pay off the debts of people like that).

I was a huge bear until this year, hell i was even bearish for the first few months this year too. Now I feel that government interference may derail any economic recovery that is underway.

But the whole economic situation of Ireland is and has been improving. Its plain to see.

To be fair Mr spider did post a whole thread full of examples that you ask for. I read it and it is a good one. You can really see who has been wrong and who has been right for the last couple of years in it. Whats really telling is that the people who have been proved wrong are still saying the same thing over and over. They are waiting on the time to catch up with the stopped clock at this stage i fear.

I dont know if you were part of that thread, but if you were you should remember it. It looks like it got very heated.

Now that some actual results that we can look back on are emerging, it is good to look at threads like that I think. Heave a look at it if you dont remember it.

The_Morrigan

Folks you were warned about the personalised posts and squabbling. Thread closed.