2015 Classics

Warper

I have backed Osaila - 1000 Guineas @ 33-1. Really liked the way she came through the last day at Ascot. Really powered to the line and Hannon already says she is being aimed at the 1000.

Ivawood - 2000 Guineas @ 9-1. Again looked great last week at Goodwood and is the best of the Hannon strong two year old brigade.

Highland Reel - Derby @ 12-1. Looked mightily impressive last week at Goodwood and is out of Galileo so a derby bid looks imminent. Thought about him for the Guineas but O'Brien's never have a prep run and will be peaked for the Derby.

Anyone have any other fancies?

Bateman

I got the top price 33 on Gleneagles for the guineas

After John F Kennedy's flop at Leop recently I wonder why he hasnt been pushed out bigger than 33, someone know something I wonder

skippymac6

Bateman wrote: »

I got the top price 33 on Gleneagles for the guineas

After John F Kennedy's flop at Leop recently I wonder why he hasnt been pushed out bigger than 33, someone know something I wonder

My Dad's friend does some business with Coolmore and he was told a few months ago that John F Kennedy was their Derby horse next year.

He obviously didnt go great at Leopardstown but he was told to keep the faith but there's been plenty of Coolmore horses bigged up over the years that never delivered!:eek:

Warper

Its well known that they keep the best names for their superbred colts and they dont come much better than JFK. Still i cant have him at this stage but they do improve a hell of a lot after a run. Didnt look good at all first time out though

paddyisreal

there is a horse of hannons that has not even ran yet but he has talked him up on the morning line a few weeks ago and in his yard preview at the start of the year. He is a dubawi colt so might be of interest in the guineas next year as anything he does this year will be improved on. thahab is the name of it and it means gold in arabic so as naming goes ....

NewApproach

Words. Oaks. That is all.

FIVE2_THREE

skippymac6 wrote: »

My Dad's friend does some business with Coolmore and he was told a few months ago that John F Kennedy was their Derby horse next year.

He obviously didnt go great at Leopardstown but he was told to keep the faith but there's been plenty of Coolmore horses bigged up over the years that never delivered!:eek:

I sure hope He isn't. I saw nothing from his last outing. No fight and No determination.

rossom

NewApproach wrote: »

Words. Oaks. That is all.

Was supremely impressed with how she won on debut. Lovely long withering run down the outside and that looks a very nice race. Would be with you in this camp.

tryfix

skippymac6 wrote: »

My Dad's friend does some business with Coolmore and he was told a few months ago that John F Kennedy was their Derby horse next year.

He obviously didnt go great at Leopardstown but he was told to keep the faith but there's been plenty of Coolmore horses bigged up over the years that never delivered!:eek:

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I sure hope He isn't. I saw nothing from his last outing. No fight and No determination.

In the opener tomorrow we'll find out what he's made of. A nice race with the East India maiden form represented by Portage. I'd be a bit concerned about attitude with him, Tapestry his full sister is tricky enough and he was on his toes for his debut. Still it looks a good maiden and if he wins well he's likely to be group class.

Oxx has a half sister to Pour Moi running in the fillies maiden where Wachman has a full sister to Roderic O'Connor.


The one I'm looking out for is O'Briens O'l Man River { Montjeu x Finsceal Beo } who was in at the early stages of the JFK maiden tomorrow. If that fells wins a maiden and heads for the Racing Post Trophy he'll be on his way to winning the Derby.

the groutch

tryfix wrote: »

The one I'm looking out for is O'Briens O'l Man River { Montjeu x Finsceal Beo } who was in at the early stages of the JFK maiden tomorrow. If that fells wins a maiden and heads for the Racing Post Trophy he'll be on his way to winning the Derby.

I'd be slightly concerned about the lack of stamina on the dam's side.

tryfix

the groutch wrote: »

I'd be slightly concerned about the lack of stamina on the dam's side.

Yeah, I thought about that at first and checked his Dosage Index which is stamina laden at 0.87. Montjeu is a fierce influence for stamina, his presence as sire dilutes the speed of Finsceal Beo who has a [SIZE=-1] DI = 3.50. And Finsceal Beo ran Duke Of Marmalade to 1 1/4l in the Tattersals over 11f at the Curragh. It's a match a bit similar to St Nicholas Abbey who had a bit too much stamina, this pedigree has only slightly less stamina in it and is definitely a Derby pedigree.

I'd be more worried about him not being good enough, but we'll see what he's up to when he makes his debut. He was a €2.85 million yearling, so he must be a nice type in the making..[/SIZE]

ComplyOrDie

JFK looks smart

FIVE2_THREE

Well he certainly ran with a point to prove. Derby horse ? I'm not ready to say that just yet. but a 2000G horse is more like it.

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Well he certainly ran with a point to prove. Derby horse ? I'm not ready to say that just yet. but a 2000G horse is more like it.

That's a good point about trip, he's not stoutly bred at all despite being a brother to Irish Oaks second Tapestry. I find that really getting the 12f trip at the Epsom Derby takes stamina that's not in JFKs pedigree, the really brilliant horses like Sea The Stars can wing it but JFK ain't no Sea The Stars and the 2nd today beaten 4 3/4l was beaten 8 3/4l on his debut by Convergence who is an admittedly very decent animal who was put in his place by Gleneagles who turned the form of that maiden around.

Methinks JFK ain't no Epsom Derby winner.

tryfix

Delighted to see Dick Whittington in the Phoenix showing that the Rip Van Winkle's can handle soft ground and didn't Joseph say they have a better Rip at home than Dick Whittington, anyone know the name of it?

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

Delighted to see Dick Whittington in the Phoenix showing that the Rip Van Winkle's can handle soft ground and didn't Joseph say they have a better Rip at home than Dick Whittington, anyone know the name of it?

Must be Father Frost or The Happy Prince. I'm leaning toward Father Frost being the one

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Must be Father Frost or The Happy Prince. I'm leaning toward Father Frost being the one

Thanks FIVE, that's one fast pedigree that Father Frost has. There's a Hurricane Run half sister who never ran beyond a mile in four seasons, and a Cape Cross sprinter.

Rip seems to be a source of speed, so that Father Frost is probably a sprinter miler. That Happy Prince is another fast looking type.

ComplyOrDie

tryfix wrote: »

That's a good point about trip, he's not stoutly bred at all despite being a brother to Irish Oaks second Tapestry. I find that really getting the 12f trip at the Epsom Derby takes stamina that's not in JFKs pedigree, the really brilliant horses like Sea The Stars can wing it but JFK ain't no Sea The Stars and the 2nd today beaten 4 3/4l was beaten 8 3/4l on his debut by Convergence who is an admittedly very decent animal who was put in his place by Gleneagles who turned the form of that maiden around.

Methinks JFK ain't no Epsom Derby winner.

Total BS. He's a baby and progression is likely, I'm not saying he's going to be as good as STS but he is smart and has a bright future. Need i remind you STS was beaten in a mdn by a horse who never won another race. It's a long time between 2-3 and it's way to early to making calls on derbys.

paddyisreal

Jfk No chance of winning a guineas imo.. . Hannin has at least three better two years old and I would be very suprised if he did not train the winner next year.

tryfix

ComplyOrDie wrote: »

Total BS. He's a baby and progression is likely, I'm not saying he's going to be as good as STS but he is smart and has a bright future. Need i remind you STS was beaten in a mdn by a horse who never won another race. It's a long time between 2-3 and it's way to early to making calls on derbys.

[SIZE=-1]JOHN F KENNEDY DI = 1.50 CD = 0.47 [/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]Epsom Derby Winners

2014 AUSTRALIA DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2013 RULER OF THE WORLD DI = 1.05 CD = 0.26

[/SIZE][/SIZE]2012 [SIZE=-1]CAMELOT DI = 0.68 CD = -0.06

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2011 POUR MOI DI = 0.57 CD = -0.23
[/SIZE][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2010 WORKFORCE DI = 1.00 CD = 0.23
[/SIZE]
[/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2009 SEA THE STARS DI = 3.00 CD = 0.81

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2008 NEW[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] APPROACH DI = 0.89 CD = 0.22

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2007 AUTHORIZED DI = 0.62 CD = -0.14[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]2006 SIR PERCY DI = 0.54 CD = -0.50[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]2005 MOTIVATOR DI = 1.04 CD = 0.17[/SIZE]

The horse doesn't have an Epsom Derby winners pedigree, as I said a brilliant once in a generation horse like Sea The Stars can do it without the stamina and he had an Arc winner as a dam whereas JFK's dam never ran beyond a mile.

I'll be delighted to swallow my words if JFK is another Sea The Stars.

Warper

tryfix wrote: »

[SIZE=-1]JOHN F KENNEDY DI = 1.50 CD = 0.47 [/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]Epsom Derby Winners

2014 AUSTRALIA DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2013 RULER OF THE WORLD DI = 1.05 CD = 0.26

[/SIZE][/SIZE]2012 [SIZE=-1]CAMELOT DI = 0.68 CD = -0.06

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2011 POUR MOI DI = 0.57 CD = -0.23
[/SIZE][/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]2010 WORKFORCE DI = 1.00 CD = 0.23
[/SIZE]
[/SIZE][/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2009 SEA THE STARS DI = 3.00 CD = 0.81

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2008 NEW[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] APPROACH DI = 0.89 CD = 0.22

[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]2007 AUTHORIZED DI = 0.62 CD = -0.14[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]2006 SIR PERCY DI = 0.54 CD = -0.50[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]2005 MOTIVATOR DI = 1.04 CD = 0.17[/SIZE]

The horse doesn't have an Epsom Derby winners pedigree, as I said a brilliant once in a generation horse like Sea The Stars can do it without the stamina and he had an Arc winner as a dam whereas JFK's dam never ran beyond a mile.

I'll be delighted to swallow my words if JFK is another Sea The Stars.

Can someone explain to me what this is?

JFK did look impressive yesterday. The way he travelled and quickened was very good and it was over a mile on soft ground which is a lot to ask for a 2 yr old.

tryfix

Warper wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what this is?

JFK did look impressive yesterday. The way he travelled and quickened was very good and it was over a mile on soft ground which is a lot to ask for a 2 yr old.

It's the Dosage Indexes ( based on the mixture of breeding in a horse's pedigree ) of the last 10 Derby winners compared to John F Kennedy's to highlight a lack of stamina in his pedigree. The lower the DI the more likely a horse is to stay, the higher the DI is the more likely that the horse is a sprinter/miler type. There's other stuff in the wiki link about the other information contained in a horse's Dosage Index.

It doesn't mean that it's impossible for a horse who's not in the ideal DI band to win at a trip that they're not bred for, but it's a very good indicator. And it matters most in the top races like the Derby where the pace and class of the race are strong which puts pressure on a horses stamina a lot more than winning a trial race or lower class race would.

For instance, Sole Power the sprinter has a DI of 3.00 and Leading Light the Stayer has a DI of 0.96.

It's just a guide, not infallible, but a good trend type indicator of what kind of horse is needed to win a particular race and doesn't matter as much for sprinters and lower class horses.

I may have been a bit unkind to JFK, who was actually quite impressive yesterday and looked like a potentially top horse, but he has the kind of pedigree that would come unstuck in a a fierce battle to the line in the Epsom Derby.

The Dosage Index is a mathematical figure used by breeders of Thoroughbred race horses, and sometimes by bettors handicapping horse races, to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index


Here's a link for pedigree query. com.

You search for the horse and its pedigree and Dosage Index will be displayed.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/leading+light4

jacko1

Ol' Man River has an entry for the 1m Maiden at Leopardstown on Thursday

Interesting to see if his 25/1 Derby price is based on his home work or his yearling price (€2.85 million)

jacko1

Ol Man River declared for the 8f maiden at Leopardstown tomorrow

longshotvalue

Talking about the 2015 Classics even before the NH season starts , thats a paddl'n..

Themonkey

jacko1 wrote: »

Ol Man River declared for the 8f maiden at Leopardstown tomorrow

joeseph prefers him to order of st geogre they must think he is good:eek:

The Mig

Ol' Man river is now a N/R

tryfix

So, now that we've had a look at O'l Man River what's the verdict? O'Brien is on about bringing him back to 7 furlongs but that's just to try and make out he's got his dam's speed for stud value. He's a Camelot/St Nicholas Abbey type IMO, capable of winning a Racing Post Trophy, maybe capable of taking a poor 2,000 Guineas if he won the Racing Post Trophy and very definitely he's a Derby horse.

So, who's the best classic prospect out of O'Brien's high class crop of 2yo colts. Highland Reel looked like the best for a while but the form of his vintage stakes win at Goodwood is not unbeatable. Gleneagles is another similar type, a very nice prospect with similar form. John F Kennedy similar to O'l Man River but with more speed which would make him a very interesting Guineas prospect if he wins one of the big end of year GP races.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

So, now that we've had a look at O'l Man River what's the verdict? O'Brien is on about bringing him back to 7 furlongs but that's just to try and make out he's got his dam's speed for stud value. He's a Camelot/St Nicholas Abbey type IMO, capable of winning a Racing Post Trophy, maybe capable of taking a poor 2,000 Guineas if he won the Racing Post Trophy and very definitely he's a Derby horse.

So, who's the best classic prospect out of O'Brien's high class crop of 2yo colts. Highland Reel looked like the best for a while but the form of his vintage stakes win at Goodwood is not unbeatable. Gleneagles is another similar type, a very nice prospect with similar form. John F Kennedy similar to O'l Man River but with more speed which would make him a very interesting Guineas prospect if he wins one of the big end of year GP races.

I'll reserve my judgment until after the Lagardere a race the AOB has used as a spring board in the past for such horses as Mount Nelson, The Rock and Holy Roman. I'm sure he had that race on his mind when he said he would like to cut Ol' Man River back to 7f

the groutch

We've still yet to see Sir Isaac Newton too, cost £3.6m at the sales.

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I'll reserve my judgment until after the Lagardere a race the AOB has used as a spring board in the past for such horses as Mount Nelson, The Rock and Holy Roman. I'm sure he had that race on his mind when he said he would like to cut Ol' Man River back to 7f

Interesting possibility not probability as Aidan has shown very little interest in that race for the last 5 years, sending the moderate Wiltshire Boulevard last year, Pedro The Great the year before and he hadn't got a runner two years before that with Beethoven running in 2009.

Not exactly his top classic prospects, but this year O'Brien has such strength in depth that he will probably give it a go. Dick Whittington would fit the bill nicely as as a good Juvenile but not a great one.

The Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown in October would be a nice way to bring him back and get a Group win into him, but it's far enough away and O'Brien would probably like to have tucked away for the winter by then. The National Stakes in just under two weeks would be a cracker for him to win as would the Dewhurst but that'd be throwing him in at the deep end, much better to let him run in the Racing Post Trophy where he could avoid all the speedy horses.

Peintre Celebre

Think you could be jumping the gun a bit tryfix saying he'd be good enough to win an RP Trophy bearing in mind he looked a nice prospect on debut but it's a big jump. Not sure it will turn out to be the best maiden in the world but it's very early days


Highland Reel the one I liked the most but there still could be a few to run

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Think you could be jumping the gun a bit tryfix saying he'd be good enough to win an RP Trophy bearing in mind he looked a nice prospect on debut but it's a big jump. Not sure it will turn out to be the best maiden in the world but it's very early days


Highland Reel the one I liked the most but there still could be a few to run

I nailed my colours to the mast before this fella even ran, he's going to win the Derby.

Yeah I really like Highland Reel, he does it so easily that it looks like there's plenty more in the locker. O'Brien has a lot of fairly speedily bred Galileo colts this year, so many in fact that it's hard to pick one of the good Galileo's that'd be definite Epsom more than Newmarket material.

With Gosden's Faydhan looking like he's out of action, I think one of O'Briens Galileo's will take the Guineas.

hucklebuck

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Must be Father Frost or The Happy Prince. I'm leaning toward Father Frost being the one

I call him Frosty....