Are Met Éireann's weather forecasts accurate?

Mr Rhode Island Red

Posting this here in the hope of getting more serious responses than it would in After Hours.

Now I understand Met Éireann can't get it right all the time, they are trying to predict the future in a way, but I was wondering what everybody here on the weather forum thinks. Do they generally do a good job at predicting the weather?

As an example, on last night's forecast, heavy rain and possible flash flooding was headed for the west of the country, but so far today, it is nowhere to be seen in certain parts. All the silage and turf trailers are out in full force in Mayo. Maybe it's "just the way it's falling" but I found they were a bit out with that particular forecast (feel free to prove me otherwise, I can only speak for a small part of the region)

Your thoughts? (on the bigger picture, not limited to last night's forecast)

Video

the last 2 weeks has been bad forecasts, although its mainly thunderstorms they get wrong... which are harder to predict but sometimes they make mistakes that would really make you wonder. I've found them to be right a lot of the time during the winter, but they issue warnings a bit too late a lot of the time in my books.

Speak Now

Most accurate you'll get for this island but generally people only remember the ones they get wrong.

hairybelly

Its not that they're wrong, its just that they have to be interpreted right. They can't predict the weather 100% accurately. That and they only have such a short time space on TV and radio to try and forecast it.

Those little maps on the TV with a rainy cloud over the South West of the country means nothing to me other than, it might rain somewhere in the SW.
The met eireann 5 day forecast they have on their website is pretty good for temperature, wind, rainfall, and now waves!

Iancar29

I agree ^^^


For example over the last while when theres thunderstorm risks , if they put up a thunderstorm symbol for say leinster , alot of people i talk to on the day will be like..
" sure we were supposed to get thunderstorms today? "
Not knowing that probably just in the next county there has been a decent shower if not a thunderstorm too.

They simple cant separate every single county for their forecasts. I'd admit that when theres a chance of fairly widespread thunderstorms to occur they dont warn of it enough imo.

But yes , i think they are highly reliable , once you can interpret them correctly.

Jpmarn

I find them reasonably accurate for the next day or two. The accrusy falls off after that. Location wise they would be a good bit short off 100%. Eastern parts of Connaught got allot of rain today and yet no warnings was posted.