Typhoon Neoguri

bnt

Western Pacific: Typhoon Neoguri quickly strengthened to Cat 4, and will soon be Cat 5. The current track has it hitting Okinawa as Cat 5, then weakening to Cat 4 before it strikes southern Japan.





One to watch, methinks!

Rikand

Already looking like a beast on the windmap

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-227.83,17.48,1024

Lumi

It's a monster!

Ryan Maue is talking about it on Twitter & he's saying that its one of the largest wind fields he's seen

GFS 00z initialized Typhoon #Neogurl at 931 mb -- intensifies it to 922 mb. http://pic.twitter.com/kUERuBfADe

M.T. Cranium

The good news is that the typhoon should pass between islands in the Okinawa prefecture roughly two-thirds of the 150 km gap between Okinawa and Miyako islands, placing Miyako on the weaker northerly wind side, and Okinawa far enough to the east that wind speeds should peak around cat-1 hurricane intensity (the storm itself will probably peak near the boundary of cat-2 and cat-3 using North Atlantic reference, or 90-100 knots gusting 130-150 knots. This will likely happen about 24 hours from now).

It is currently early morning Tuesday 8 July in Japan and they are eight hours ahead of Irish summer time (in JST). By Tuesday evening there, winds should be peaking from the south in western Okinawa (island) which includes the large capital city of Naha. I am expecting maximum sustained winds of 60-70 knots and gusts to 100.

Somewhat stronger winds are expected to hit the smaller offshore island of Kume-jima (population about 10,000) which is about 50 km northwest of Naha. They could see cat-2 conditions and a large storm surge, and most of the population there lives on the exposed southern side of that island.

I haven't looked at the later evolution of this storm yet, but once it passes these islands it would be two days before it gets very close to land in either South Korea or western Japan.

Will keep a close eye on projections but at the moment, the eye is expected to move due north in perhaps the best location relative to the two larger islands, and while there is bound to be some minor damage and possible mudslides or flooding, things could be worse.

Radar loop shows outer bands sweeping over Okinawa island now:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

bnt

Neoguri had weakened to Cat 3 by the time it passed Okinawa, and will weaken further before it hits Japan. The big worry now is heavy rain which could cause flooding or landslides.

MiNdGaM3

Some of the pics from the ISS posted on Jeff Masters' blog are amazing http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2721

M.T. Cranium

I just noticed on a weather map from Japan met service that a tropical storm has recently become a cat-1 typhoon while moving west near Manila. (Manila enveloped by typhoon) ... would look into this further but very very sleepy here after a hot day, perhaps somebody interested in these west Pacific systems could give some details.

Here's a link anyway:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/

Rikand

Rammusan, saw it yesterday aswell. Done some damage already and it aint finished yet. Looks to be heading towards Vietnam and theres another couple of storms starting to develop east of the philippines that may track that way as well in the coming days

Ramussan Gif from this morning as it leaves the Phillipines