Hurricane ARTHUR

maquiladora

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization
of the tropical cyclone over the past few hours. The main area of
deep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the
circulation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in
enhanced infrared images. Surface observations and Doppler radar
velocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,
and the current intensity is held at 30 kt. This is also in
agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and
objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.

There hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best
guess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about
260/2. The overall steering scenario seems relatively
straightforward. A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over
the north-central United States is predicted by the global models
to move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days. This
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
north-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3
days, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed later in the forecast period. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to
the model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.

Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification
with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone
during the next 72 hours or so. The official intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus. By the end of the forecast
period, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge
with a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in
extratropical transition.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 27.6N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 29.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.8N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 39.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

maquiladora

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur.

hatrickpatrick

Came pretty close to a June without any tropical cyclones there... Presumably with at least a moderate El Niño on the way, one can expect a hurricane season more or less as lacklustre as last year's?

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Came pretty close to a June without any tropical cyclones there... Presumably with at least a moderate El Niño on the way, one can expect a hurricane season more or less as lacklustre as last year's?

Yeah probably won't be a very active season at all.

Below average seasons can still be interesting though. 1992 only had 7 named storms, but one of them was Andrew.

Pa ElGrande

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Arthur.A2014182.1630.1km.jpg


Bastardi: ‘potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend’ - -> http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/30/bastardi-potential-nightmare-a-tropical-cyclone-coming-at-the-outer-banks-on-the-july-4-weekend/
June 30, 2014

We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why. To refresh your memory, a look at the ECMWF 200 mb pattern Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, indicates why this can deepen so much, and as a matter of fact is in a prime area to do so.

maquiladora

Latest forecast discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 012053
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Although radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
pattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface
winds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the
intensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced
around pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have
been forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid
significant turbulence.

Arthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant
change has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
The latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on
large mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern
and mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a
subtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The
combination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase
the southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
and the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official
forecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory
track, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance
envelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate
over the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level
outflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary
inhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level
air to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and
briefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global
and regional models are forecasting the inner core region to
moisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to
strengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and
in light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving
over cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear
in excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 27.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

maquiladora

Latest ECM has Arthur as a sub-970mb hurricane brushing the Outer Banks. Would most likely be a Cat 2 if that came off, but intensity is the hardest thing to predict.

irishgeo

Them hurricane hunter planes must be a interesting trip.

maquiladora

Arthur is now a hurricane.

weisses

irishgeo wrote: »

Them hurricane hunter planes must be a interesting trip.

http://www.flightradar24.com/NOAA42/3b93c2f

bnt

Another way is to start at the FlightRadar24 homepage and use the filter for callsign "NOAA". There are two flights up at this moment - NOAA2 and NOAA42. Note that the displayed tracks are not 100% accurate - where you see long straight lines, that means data is missing, not that they flew in straight lines.

maquiladora

bnt wrote: »

Another way is to start at the FlightRadar24 homepage and use the filter for callsign "NOAA". There are two flights up at this moment - NOAA2 and NOAA42. Note that the displayed tracks are not 100% accurate - where you see long straight lines, that means data is missing, not that they flew in straight lines.

You can get the live recon data from the flights and Google Earth overlay plugins here.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

...ARTHUR STRENGTHENS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS REACHING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

8:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 3
Location: 31.8°N 78.7°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Heres a link for HurricaneTrack.com. The guy is currently driving around looking Buxton North Carolina,for site to place the web cam.


http://hurricanetrack.com

http://www.ustream.tv/hurricanetrack

maquiladora

whitebriar

Lots of interesting thunderstorms in that secondary low over Northern Florida,just as,if not more exciting under that I'd say!