Summer 2014 charts/models Discussion - NO CHAT

hatrickpatrick

Making this thread as the summer chat thread is generally more focused on local forecasts as opposed to the overall picture.

Most of the models seem to agree that this low from Greenland is going to hit us directly by the weekend, and it's becoming less FI as time goes on
Finding it a bit annoying that the UKMO still hasn't been fixed, but one must simply endure.

The GFS is slightly more optimistic than the rest about this weekend, it's showing the low pressure gradually filling as it crosses the atlantic, although the precipitation chart still suggests we're in for a deluge. The ECM suggests that pressures will remain on the upper end of low, with the depression forecast to hit us by the GFS swinging further south and scraping us instead. No precipitation chart to judge the effect this scenario would have on the rain situation unfortunately.
GEM agrees with the ECM in terms of pressure, suggesting that the depression will have weakened considerably by the time it reaches us at the weekend, but alas the large rain belt stubbornly refuses to dissipate, just like on the GFS.

The GFS extending out into FI essentially shows a fairly standard summer for Ireland, sandwiched directly between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south, which I generally interpret as meaning unpredictable weather, could rain one minute and be sunny the next, but not extreme in either direction.

On that note, fore those more experienced than me with this kind of thing, just where is the line drawn between FI and pretty much dead certainty? I generally use 120h as the cut-off, or 144h at a stretch, but even within that I've seen weather patterns change dramatically from 5 or 6 day forecasts, so would I be right in suggesting that as of now (Monday afternoon), the weekend's weather isn't quite set in stone just yet?

EDIT: My apologies for not including any images, on my phone atm but I'll add some to the post when I get home!