April CSO Data

kennyb3

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2014/#.U4W3PfldXT9

Residential property prices rose by 1.4% in the month of April. This compares with a decrease of 0.7% recorded in March and an increase of 0.8% recorded in April of last year. See Table 1.

In Dublin residential property prices grew by 3.1% in April and were 17.7% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices rose by 3.1% in the month and were 17.8% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 17.5% higher when compared with the same month of 2013. See Tables 6, 7 and 8.

The price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland (i.e. excluding Dublin) fell by 0.3% in April compared with a increase of 1.2% in April of last year. Prices were 1.3% higher than in April 2013. See Table 4.

******************

No agenda just posting the data. As usual all the caveats apply; no cash buyers, index re-based each year so ignore comparisons to previous year etc.

I anticipate a bit of a backlash against those who shot their load a bit too early with Jan & Feb's numbers. Same pattern as last year.

markpb

Maybe I'm missing something but why are CSO still reporting on incomplete house price data when the Property Price Register should be more accurate?

Cuddlesworth

markpb wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something but why are CSO still reporting on incomplete house price data when the Property Price Register should be more accurate?

Because the property price register can be up to 9 months behind in its data.

lima

No cash buyers etc. this is unreliable

Ah I'm completely priced out of this market by now, but meh, my rent is the same as the mortgage interest I'd pay, plus I have over e100k in savings and mortgage approval of e250k and originally got approval in Sept 2012 but I still feel a gut instinct not to commit to a 35 year mortgage in Ireland, simply because Ireland is Ireland and will always be Ireland. Even in the troughs of the bottom I still didn't think Dublin property was worth it and it astounds me that people are throwing such high amounts of money to own in this country!

Personally, I work in an international company and my other half is from another country so even if I was to make $$$ on buying a house, it is still too much risk for me to be stuck in Ireland for the forseeable future when in all likelyhood I am going to go elsewhere for a better life.

But the people paying huge amounts of hard cash over the odds for substandard property need to understand that thousands of people are sitting in houses not paying their mortgages, and you people are paying over the odds interest to pay for them to live for free.

lima

Good old Charlie just had an orgasm:

http://www.independent.ie/incoming/property-prices-surge-by-85pc-30311737.html

kennyb3

lima wrote: »

a 35 year mortgage in Ireland, simply because Ireland is Ireland and will always be Ireland.

A 35 year mortgage is nuts in any country imho. And they seem to be part of the problem .

A quote from that

"There is a 34pc difference between the monthly repayments on the 35-year mortgage than there is on the 20-year one."

As someone elsewhere put it;

Another way of looking it is that while a 25 year mortgage is 18% more expensive for the first 25 years, it's 100% less expensive for the next 10.

Fkall

lima wrote: »

No cash buyers etc. this is unreliable

Ah I'm completely priced out of this market by now, but meh, my rent is the same as the mortgage interest I'd pay, plus I have over e100k in savings and mortgage approval of e250k and originally got approval in Sept 2012 but I still feel a gut instinct not to commit to a 35 year mortgage in Ireland, simply because Ireland is Ireland and will always be Ireland. Even in the troughs of the bottom I still didn't think Dublin property was worth it and it astounds me that people are throwing such high amounts of money to own in this country!

Personally, I work in an international company and my other half is from another country so even if I was to make $$$ on buying a house, it is still too much risk for me to be stuck in Ireland for the forseeable future when in all likelyhood I am going to go elsewhere for a better life.

But the people paying huge amounts of hard cash over the odds for substandard property need to understand that thousands of people are sitting in houses not paying their mortgages, and you people are paying over the odds interest to pay for them to live for free.

TBF this index provides data on the way the market is moving for those looking to buy and need a mortgage to do so.

Equally rents are on the rise and the relative value of rents compared to interest costs can be quickly eroded.

lima

Fkall wrote: »

TBF this index provides data on the way the market is moving for those looking to buy and need a mortgage to do so.

Equally rents are on the rise and the relative value of rents compared to interest costs can be quickly eroded.

Will interest rates rise though at some stage

kennyb3

lima wrote: »

Will interest rates rise though at some stage

Hard to see it coming anytime soon given the deflation facing the Eurozone.

Anyone with a mortgage would be well advised to overpay now to absorb any increase in the medium to long term.

Barely Hedged

lima wrote: »

No cash buyers etc. this is unreliable

Ah I'm completely priced out of this market by now, but meh, my rent is the same as the mortgage interest I'd pay, plus I have over e100k in savings and mortgage approval of e250k and originally got approval in Sept 2012 but I still feel a gut instinct not to commit to a 35 year mortgage in Ireland, simply because Ireland is Ireland and will always be Ireland. Even in the troughs of the bottom I still didn't think Dublin property was worth it and it astounds me that people are throwing such high amounts of money to own in this country!

Personally, I work in an international company and my other half is from another country so even if I was to make $$$ on buying a house, it is still too much risk for me to be stuck in Ireland for the forseeable future when in all likelyhood I am going to go elsewhere for a better life.

But the people paying huge amounts of hard cash over the odds for substandard property need to understand that thousands of people are sitting in houses not paying their mortgages, and you people are paying over the odds interest to pay for them to live for free.

What other capital city or major city do you think would not require a relatively large amount of money to buy property in and what do you consider worth it?

The Irish CB should really step in and prohibit domestic and foreign banks from offering 35 year mortgages and subsequently hybrid structures they might come up with to wriggle around an outright ban.

"Better life" is very subjective

Claw Hammer

kennyb3 wrote: »

Hard to see it coming anytime soon given the deflation facing the Eurozone.

Anyone with a mortgage would be well advised to overpay now to absorb any increase in the medium to long term.

Even a substantial increase in five years time would be very serious. Inflation is extremely low at the moment and five years payments on a 35 year loan would be virtually all interest so the forlorn would have to be paid off over a shorter period of higher interest rates.

Barely Hedged

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Even a substantial increase in five years time would be very serious. Inflation is extremely low at the moment and five years payments on a 35 year loan would be virtually all interest so the forlorn would have to be paid off over a shorter period of higher interest rates.

To be entering into a 35 year, for the mast majority, floating interest rate exchange where you are the floating rate payer at this moment in time is madness for several reasons

kennyb3

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Even a substantial increase in five years time would be very serious. Inflation is extremely low at the moment and five years payments on a 35 year loan would be virtually all interest so the forlorn would have to be paid off over a shorter period of higher interest rates.

Did you note my comment above about 35 year mortgages?

My advice was to be prudent and over pay while interest rates are low - what part of that do you have a problem with? I am aware interest rates may rise hence my attempt at prudent advice. It's evident that people should leave flexability in their borrowing and borrow a sensible % of disposable income - you are preaching to the converted here.

Claw Hammer

kennyb3 wrote: »

Did you note my comment above about 35 year mortgages?

My advice was to be prudent and over pay while interest rates are low - what part of that do you have a problem with? I am aware interest rates may rise hence my attempt at prudent advice. It's evident that people should leave flexability in their borrowing and borrow a sensible % of disposable income - you are preaching to the converted here.

If you can afford to overpay you can afford to take a shorter term from the start. What is the point of taking a 35 year mortgages and then overpaying?

murphaph

Claw Hammer wrote: »

If you can afford to overpay you can afford to take a shorter term from the start. What is the point of taking a 35 year mortgages and then overpaying?

Flexibility in times of unemployment or reduced income. It's actually the clever way to do it as long as you have the discipline to make those overpayments.

kennyb3

Claw Hammer wrote: »

If you can afford to overpay you can afford to take a shorter term from the start. What is the point of taking a 35 year mortgages and then overpaying?

There is no point - nobody should take a 35 year mortgage - did I not make that evident enough in the 6th post of this thread?

As for mortgage term and overpaying;

A €200k mortgage @ 5% over 30yrs will have the same cost as one over 25yrs if you overpay the 30yr one by the difference in monthly cost (€95.44pm). If you are disciplined enough to do that there is no € end difference.

lima

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What other capital city or major city do you think would not require a relatively large amount of money to buy property in and what do you consider worth it?

Have a look on http://www.immoweb.be/en/

Of the huge amount of apartments in Brussels, here's an example: http://www.immoweb.be/en/Buy.Estate.cfm?IdBien=4772268&xgallery=gallery&xpage=8

kennyb3

murphaph wrote: »

Flexibility in times of unemployment or reduced income. It's actually the clever way to do it as long as you have the discipline to make those overpayments.

+1, exactly. Gives you flexability - there will be a cost if you use it but a lot better than trying to go back to your bank in few years time to re-negotiate the term or being under massive financial pressure. Discipline obviously being the key but not exactly hard when you just set up a monthly DD for the higher amount.

Barely Hedged

lima wrote: »

Have a look on http://www.immoweb.be/en/

Of the huge amount of apartments in Brussels, here's an example: http://www.immoweb.be/en/Buy.Estate.cfm?IdBien=4772268&xgallery=gallery&xpage=8

Brussels wouldn't be my cup of tea to live in or pursue a better life in, but that's subjective also.

Surely there must be some good 2 bed apartments in Dublin for around 250k

Thomas D

Try The Hague. Huge supply of properties for affordable prices.
http://www.funda.nl/koop/den-haag/appartement-48095592-gedempte-sloot-132/

110sqm appartment in the city centre for 160K. You can buy 100+sqm houses in really nice areas for 200K. They city is a wealthy place with a much higher standard of living than Dublin,

kennyb3

Thomas D wrote: »

Try The Hague. Huge supply of properties for affordable prices.
http://www.funda.nl/koop/den-haag/appartement-48095592-gedempte-sloot-132/

110sqm appartment in the city centre for 160K. You can buy 100+sqm houses in really nice areas for 200K. They city is a wealthy place with a much higher standard of living than Dublin,

11.1% unemployment rate however.

Comparing cities across countries is pointless imho anyway. People want different things and also the price of the apartment doesn't give details of all the other economic factors (employment rate, local wage rates, level of taxes etc etc. Telling me (as an example) I can get an apartment in the hague (or other) for €160k isn't much use given (a) I don't speak dutch (b) I've little chance of getting a job there because of (a) above and obviously other factors such as transferability of skills etc.

For example, I can get my exact same job in London with just slightly better wages but the cost of a house/apartment is prohibitive. This doesn't make Dublin good value however. Dublin is not London and the Hague is not Dublin or vice versa.

whatawaster

lima wrote: »

Have a look on http://www.immoweb.be/en/

Of the huge amount of apartments in Brussels, here's an example: http://www.immoweb.be/en/Buy.Estate.cfm?IdBien=4772268&xgallery=gallery&xpage=8

That looks nothing special to be honest. A quarter of a million and not much more than half the size of a decent 3 bed semi.

Thomas D

kennyb3 wrote: »

11.1% unemployment rate however.

Comparing cities across countries is pointless imho anyway. People want different things and also the price of the apartment doesn't give details of all the other economic factors (employment rate, local wage rates, level of taxes etc etc. Telling me (as an example) I can get an apartment in the hague (or other) for €160k isn't much use given (a) I don't speak dutch (b) I've little chance of getting a job there because of (a) above and obviously other factors such as transferability of skills etc.

For example, I can get my exact same job in London with just slightly better wages but the cost of a house/apartment is prohibitive. This doesn't make Dublin good value however. Dublin is not London and the Hague is not Dublin or vice versa.

Why are you making it about yourself? This is what other people in a richer western nation can expect. Dublin is a complete disaster for housing.

gaius c

Barely Hedged wrote: »

What other capital city or major city do you think would not require a relatively large amount of money to buy property in and what do you consider worth it?

The Irish CB should really step in and prohibit domestic and foreign banks from offering 35 year mortgages and subsequently hybrid structures they might come up with to wriggle around an outright ban.

"Better life" is very subjective

Dublin is the 54th largest city in the EU and in a country with the lowest population density in western Europe. It's also the 3rd or 4th smallest capital city in the EU. It's actually quite small beer really.

whatawaster

gaius c wrote: »

Dublin is the 54th largest city in the EU and in a country with the lowest population density in western Europe. It's also the 3rd or 4th smallest capital city in the EU. It's actually quite small beer really.

I'd venture it's one of the wealthiest cities in Europe though in terms of average salaries.

Thomas D

whatawaster wrote: »

I'd venture it's one of the wealthiest cities in Europe though in terms of average salaries.

Far from it. Leaving Dublin has made me realise how poor a city it is.

whatawaster

Thomas D wrote: »

Far from it. Leaving Dublin has made me realise how poor a city it is.

From 2012

Dublin has the 14th highest income per capita in the world.

Thomas D

whatawaster wrote: »

From 2012

Dublin has the 14th highest income per capita in the world.

People don't move to Dublin for the wages. I've never heard of anyone from the states or western europe moving there because the money is so much better. Often they move and get a shock at how little the actually get and how much life costs.
I tripled my pay when I left. Live in a much wealthier city with few social issues. Property costs as litte or as much as I want. I could as easily live in a place for 120K or 600K.

whatawaster

Thomas D wrote: »

People don't move to Dublin for the wages. I've never heard of anyone from the states or western europe moving there because the money is so much better. Often they move and get a shock at how little the actually get and how much life costs.
I tripled my pay when I left. Live in a much wealthier city with few social issues. Property costs as litte or as much as I want. I could as easily live in a place for 120K or 600K.

Well done, sounds like you've found paradise.

Thomas D

whatawaster wrote: »

Well done, sounds like you've found paradise.

Thanks I have. My advice to the rest of you is to demand a lot better from Dublin. Do not accept the situation as anything less than a disgrace. If you can, start looking at jobs abroad.

kennyb3

Thomas D wrote: »

Why are you making it about yourself? This is what other people in a richer western nation can expect. Dublin is a complete disaster for housing.

As an example obviously. I could have used Lima also, as this was about him/her - your post suggested the Hague to them. They were on about moving - these are the factors they'll need to consider.

I don't doubt for a second Dublin's a disaster cost wise at the moment - I was simply making the point your comparison isn't really that valid especially when it's not just simply a case of being able to chose between A and B for the reasons outlined. You took an apartment price but ignored all other factors.

murphaph

Dublin isn't the only disaster (as seen from the buyer). German property is hot right now too, especially the old reliables like Munich. I bought a couple of flats in Berlin in '07 that have tripled in price. I'm in it for the long haul though. Only interested in getting decent rental yield and having something to pass on to my kids. People might claim the fundamentals aren't there in Dublin but they arguably aren't here in Berlin either (unemployment here is also double digit, though falling).

gaius c

whatawaster wrote: »

From 2012

Dublin has the 14th highest income per capita in the world.

That'll explain the high prices in fashionable areas but it doesn't explain why the least desirable housing costs more than medium housing in other larger cities.

Frank Lee Midere

Well more wealth to be lost when this bubble collapses. Since it is mostly cash buyers they can just lose it this time.

Frank Lee Midere

lima wrote: »

No cash buyers etc. this is unreliable

Ah I'm completely priced out of this market by now, but meh, my rent is the same as the mortgage interest I'd pay, plus I have over e100k in savings and mortgage approval of e250k and originally got approval in Sept 2012 but I still feel a gut instinct not to commit to a 35 year mortgage in Ireland, simply because Ireland is Ireland and will always be Ireland. Even in the troughs of the bottom I still didn't think Dublin property was worth it and it astounds me that people are throwing such high amounts of money to own in this country!

Personally, I work in an international company and my other half is from another country so even if I was to make $$$ on buying a house, it is still too much risk for me to be stuck in Ireland for the forseeable future when in all likelyhood I am going to go elsewhere for a better life.

But the people paying huge amounts of hard cash over the odds for substandard property need to understand that thousands of people are sitting in houses not paying their mortgages, and you people are paying over the odds interest to pay for them to live for free.

In a similar position to you. Frankly its pretty disgusting that we are paying for people to own bigger houses than we can afford isn't it, even though we may have bigger income and certainly more savings and real wealth saved.

Glenbhoy

Thomas D wrote: »

People don't move to Dublin for the wages. I've never heard of anyone from the states or western europe moving there because the money is so much better. Often they move and get a shock at how little the actually get and how much life costs.
I tripled my pay when I left. Live in a much wealthier city with few social issues. Property costs as litte or as much as I want. I could as easily live in a place for 120K or 600K.

I'd have to strongly disagree with that, Dublin wages are substantially higher than the almost any Western European country you'd care to mention. Taxes have increased hugely, but I suspect they're not higher than in other Western European countries.

It may well be true that depending on your circumstances you'd be better off elsewhere due to the higher level of services provided, but in terms of pure after tax income, Dublin/Ireland beats most of Europe hands down.

Rother

Glenbhoy wrote: »

I'd have to strongly disagree with that, Dublin wages are substantially higher than the almost any Western European country you'd care to mention. Taxes have increased hugely, but I suspect they're not higher than in other Western European countries.

It may well be true that depending on your circumstances you'd be better off elsewhere due to the higher level of services provided, but in terms of pure after tax income, Dublin/Ireland beats most of Europe hands down.

Ive worked in capital cities all over Europe and the only one that I would earn more money in than Dublin in my live of work is London.

Ive rented in those cities too. and Dublin is still on the lower end of the scale rent wise.
I dont get all the posts about rents and conditions being better in other European cities. Its just not true.

Another thing that seems to be the case in Dublin is that people think that for example all 1 bed apartments in the city center are the same price. In the rest of Europe you would pay more for a nicer or bigger apartment in the same location. In Dublin people expect to pay the same for a 500sq ft apartment across the road from a 350sq ft one.
OR even apartments of the same size but one with better furniture or kitchen. These are not the same worth, but it is assumed they are when people are talking about rental prices.

In Boston and Washington I had to interview to get apartments. And those interviews were harder than any job interview I have ever done.
I could have gone to worse areas and rented cheaper, but I preferred to live closer to work, so had to put up with the higher prices.

as an aside a couple of friends of mine decided last month to rent in Wicklow town and commute to Dublin. They worked out it was cheaper than renting in Dublin as they work a train ride away from each other and at least one of them would have been commuting anyway no matter where they lived in Dublin. Now they share their commute most of the way.

murphaph

Rother wrote: »

Another thing that seems to be the case in Dublin is that people think that for example all 1 bed apartments in the city center are the same price. In the rest of Europe you would pay more for a nicer or bigger apartment in the same location. In Dublin people expect to pay the same for a 500sq ft apartment across the road from a 350sq ft one

Yup. ask a German what rent he's paying and he's as likely to give you the m² price, not the total.

L1011

Rother wrote: »

Ive worked in capital cities all over Europe and the only one that I would earn more money in than Dublin in my live of work is London.

I'd be in the situation that in my specific line of work ans current level, nowhere in the known world would pay as much as I can get here realistically. Not uncommon now.

Villa05

MYOB wrote: »

I'd be in the situation that in my specific line of work ans current level, nowhere in the known world would pay as much as I can get here realistically. Not uncommon now.

Good for you, your not worried about our competitiveness and hiw it might effect the sustain abilty of your job?