Summer 2014 forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Note -- This summer contest is independent of the monthly "Boards forecast contest" series and anyone can enter.

Each year since about 2010, we've had winter and summer forecast contests, so many of you will already know the rules. Please read carefully and use the template at the end of this post to enter. This is not a contest that can be entered by the monthly contest form that we use separately. You have to enter with a post on this thread.

Here are the simplified rules and a guide to how the contest will be scored.

1. Predict the monthly IMT values for June, July and August. We calculate your summer average, you don't need to enter that. The long-term averages for those three months are 13.7, 15.2 and 15.3 C. IMT as most will know is short for "Irish Mean temperature" and is our preferred average for five representative stations, Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon, as reported by Met Eireann in their monthly summaries and monthly data sections. scores 5 for each month plus 15 for the season.

2. Predict the monthly rainfall as percentage of normal, as reported by Met Eireann for eleven stations. These include the five above and also Malin Head, Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Ballyhaise and Belmullet. The averages are of course 100% of normal. The seasonal average will be calculated by us, so you don't need to enter that. scores 5 for each month plus 15 for the season.

3. Predict the highest temperature of summer, and the date when it will occur. We don't require the location. Summer is defined as the rest of the calendar year but the contest will be validated in late September, scores will be adjusted if by any chance the maximum occurs later. It is unlikely that we've already passed this value but if you think so, go with xx.x "previous" (check back on 31 May for the actual values to use) and this will be the minimum acceptable entry. scores 10 for the max and 10 for the date.

4. Predict the average sunshine for the entire season (not monthly) as a percentage of normal. This value will be calculated from our monthly contests as reported in the Met Eireann monthly summaries, then just a straight average of June, July and August. scores 10

5. Give the date of the heaviest calendar day rainfall anywhere in Ireland at an official reporting site from 1 June to 30 September and the amount in mm.
scores 5 for the amount and 5 for the date.

Scores will be based on rank order not absolute error, the details will be announced when the number of entrants is known. Last year's top score was 70/100 achieved by "harps."

Note that September is in play for maximum temperature of the summer season and for heaviest rainfall (calendar day is used, not consecutive 24h).

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Please use this template or something very similar, for one thing, by using it you will be sure you've entered everything. I will try to contact people with incomplete or apparently invalid entries.

JUNE IMT = xxx
JULY IMT = xxx
AUG IMT = xxx
.. MTC calculates your seasonal

JUNE PRC = xxx%
JULY PRC = xxx%
AUG PRC = xxx%
.. MTC calculates your seasonal

SEASONAL MAX = xx.x on (day) of (any month to come) or xx.x so far 20.4 (previous date)

SUMMER SUNSHINE = xxx% (e.g., 109, 94 etc)

MAX RAINFALL = xxx.x mm on (day) of (month JJAS only)

______________________________________________________

I've decided not to have penalties for late entries, just an absolute deadline which will be end of Wednesday, 4 June (0300h 5 June). So no rush, you have a few days to consider the guidance and do some calculations. Later deadline as I'm a bit late announcing this one.

The monthly boards contest thread will open on Wednesday 28th once I have the form details sorted out. You don't have to use the same forecasts in the two different contests. It gives you two different things to hope for each month.

This year I won't enter until near the end, I have a few surprises up my sleeve but smart contestants already have me on ignore anyway.

Bsal

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.9
AUG IMT = 15.3

JUNE PRC = 85%
JULY PRC = 73%
AUG PRC = 110%

SEASONAL MAX = 28.1 on 13th of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 121%

MAX RAINFALL = 25.0 mm on 20th of August

Strasser

JUNE IMT = 13.1
JULY IMT = 14.8
AUG IMT = 14.3

JUNE PRC = 105%
JULY PRC = 90%
AUG PRC = 115%

SEASONAL MAX = 27.4 on 3rd of August

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 95%

MAX RAINFALL = 25.0 mm on 20th of August

snowstreams

I missed out on entering the monthly competition this year so I'll do the summer one to make up for it!

JUNE IMT = 14
JULY IMT = 15.8
AUG IMT = 14.7


JUNE PRC = 110%
JULY PRC = 80%
AUG PRC = 120%

SEASONAL MAX = 30.5 on 15th of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 120% (e.g., 109, 94 etc)

MAX RAINFALL = 40 mm on 10th of August

Billcarson

JUNE IMT = 13.9c
JULY IMT = 15.0c
AUG IMT = 16.1c


JUNE PRC = 95%
JULY PRC = 90%
AUG PRC = 75%

SEASONAL MAX = 26.5c on july 30th

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 95%

MAX RAINFALL = 28mm on july 12th.

force eleven

JUNE IMT = 13.1
JULY IMT = 14.7
AUG IMT = 15.0


JUNE PRC = 130%
JULY PRC = 100%
AUG PRC = 80%

SEASONAL MAX = 28.8 on 3rd of August

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 104% (e.g., 109, 94 etc)

MAX RAINFALL = 35mm 2nd July

John mac

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.1
AUG IMT = 14.7


JUNE PRC = 95%
JULY PRC = 110%
AUG PRC = 90%


SEASONAL MAX = 28.6 on 16 of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 123%

MAX RAINFALL = 90 mm on 24 of September

Rikand

June imt = 14.2
july imt = 15.5
aug imt = 15.5

June prc = 80%
july prc = 80%
aug prc = 80%

seasonal max = 29.1 on 4th august

summer sunshine = 125%

max rainfall = 58mm on 14th september

M.T. Cranium

JUNE 15.4 JULY 16.3 AUG 17.2 (16.3)

PRC 130, 110, 90 (110)

MAX 32.0 on 31 July

SUN 101%

RAIN MAX 57 mm 10 July

pauldry

JUNE IMT = 13.7
JULY IMT = 14.3
AUG IMT = 14.3

JUNE PRC = 123%
JULY PRC = 95%
AUG PRC = 87%

SEASONAL MAX = 27.1 on 24th of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 100%

MAX RAINFALL = 39.0 mm on 30th of June

DOCARCH

JUNE IMT = 13.8
JULY IMT = 15.6
AUG IMT = 16.1

JUNE PRC = 120%
JULY PRC = 100%
AUG PRC = 85%

SEASONAL MAX = 29.2 on 4th of August

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 120%

MAX RAINFALL = 32.0 mm on 30th of June

lostinashford

JUNE IMT = 13.8
JULY IMT = 14.4
AUG IMT = 14.8

JUNE PRC = 90%
JULY PRC = 79%
AUG PRC = 103%

SEASONAL MAX = 29.1 on 26th of July

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 105%

MAX RAINFALL = 36.0 mm on 20th of July

omicron

JUNE IMT = 14.2
JULY IMT = 15.0
AUG IMT = 16.5

JUNE PRC = 110%
JULY PRC = 100%
AUG PRC = 90%


SEASONAL MAX = 29.0 on 15th of August

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 105% (e.g., 109, 94 etc)

MAX RAINFALL = 40mm on 15th of September

sunflower3

JUNE IMT = 13.5
JULY IMT = 15.3
AUG IMT = 15.5

JUNE PRC = 111%
JULY PRC = 92%
AUG PRC = 105%

SEASONAL MAX = 29.3 on 18th of August

SUMMER SUNSHINE = 96%

MAX RAINFALL = 26.0 mm on 28th of June

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for your entries, please note, the contest was to be closed to further entries at 0300h tonight, I will extend that to whatever time I wander in to assemble the table of entries on Thursday, no later than 1500h your time then.

M.T. Cranium

Well then, here's our field of summer forecasts ... they are arranged in order of mean temperature for the summer (warmest to coolest).


Summer 2014 Forecasts


FORECASTER ___ IMT (J,J,A,mean) ____ PRC (J,J,A,mean) ___ MAX (date) ___ RAIN (date) ___ SUN %
____________________________________________________________________________________


M.T.Cranium __ 15.4_16.3_17.2__16.3___130_110_90_110___32.0_31-07___57.0_10-07___101

omicron ______ 14.2_15.0_16.5__15.2___110_100_90_100___29.0_15-08___40.0_15-09___105

DOCARCH ____ 13.8_15.6_16.1__15.2___120_100_85_102___29.2_04-08___32.0_30-06___120

Bsal _________ 14.2_15.9_15.3__15.1____85_73_110__89___28.1_13-07___25.0_20-08___121

rikand ________ 14.2_15.5_15.5__15.1____80_80__80__80___29.1_04-08___58.0_14-09___125

Billcarson _____ 13.9_15.0_16.1__15.0____95_90__75__87___26.5_30-07___28.0_12-07____95


Consensus ____ 13.9_15.1_15.3__14.8___110__92_90__97___29.0_31-07___36.0_20-07___105


Snowstreams __ 14.0_15.8_14.7__14.8___110_80_120_103___30.5_15-07___40.0_10-08___120

sunflower3 ____ 13.5_15.3_15.5__14.8___111_92_105_103___29.3_18-08___25.0_28-06____96

John mac _____ 14.2_15.1_14.7__14.7____95_110_90__98___28.6_16-07___90.0_24-09___123

force eleven ___ 13.1_14.7_15.0__14.3___130_100_80_103___28.8_03-08___35.0_02-07___104

lostinashford___13.8_14.4_14.8__14.3____90_79_103__91___29.1_26-07___36.0_20-07___105

pauldry _______ 13.7_14.3_14.3__14.1___123_95_87_102___27.1_24-07___39.0_30-06___100

Strasser_______13.1_14.8_14.3__14.1___105_90_115_103___27.4_03-08___25.0_20-08____95

Rikand

I'm in fuengirola in Spain at the moment and we had 29.1 degrees yesterday. Can we count that please ?

M.T. Cranium

What, you want more than just a trip to Spain?

Anyway, first contender for MAX RAIN is 35 mm 06-06.

M.T. Cranium

June ended with IMT of 14.4 and PRC of only 76% after a dry second half.

The MAX so far is 27.1 C and as noted above heaviest one-day rainfall 34.8 mm on the 6th of June. Sunshine began on the positive side at 127% of normal.

Scoring just for June we have these numbers so far, going with half-point intervals for the five-point monthly forecasts but doubling up on last two so that two score 0.5 and two score 0.0, but note quite a few people tied for top score on June temperature with their 14.2 forecasts; note also that Con Sensus is scored without affecting the scores otherwise so there's another duplication:

FORECASTER ___________ June IMT ___ June precip ___ TOTAL so far

M.T.Cranium _________________ 0.5 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.5

omicron ____________________ 5.0____ 2.0 ____ 7.0

DOCARCH ___________________ 2.0___ 1.0 ____ 3.0

Bsal ________________________ 5.0___ 4.5 ____ 9.5

rikand ______________________ 5.0___ 5.0 ____ 10.0

Billcarson ____________________ 2.5___ 3.5 ____ 6.0


Consensus ____________________ 2.5___ 2.0 ___ 4.5


Snowstreams __________________ 3.0___ 2.0 ___ 5.0

sunflower3 ____________________ 0.5___ 1.0 ____ 1.5

John mac _____________________ 5.0___ 3.5 ____ 8.5

force eleven ___________________ 0.0___ 0.0 ____ 0.0

lostinashford___________________ 2.0___ 4.0 ____ 6.0

pauldry _______________________ 1.0___ 0.5 ___ 1.5

Strasser_______________________ 0.0___ 2.5 ___ 2.5

____________________________________________________

So Rikand and bsal are off to a very good start. More scores after July.

M.T. Cranium

A new one-day rainfall maximum was reported on Saturday 19th at Ballyhaise with 44.8 mm. Lostinashford will do well with that if it holds up.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring Update

June ended with IMT of 14.4 and PRC of only 76% after a dry second half.
July had an IMT of 16.4 and PRC of just 69%.

The MAX so far is now 27.6 C (25 July at Oak Park) and the heaviest one-day rainfall so far is 44.6 mm on the 19th of July. Sunshine began on the positive side at 127% of normal in June and continued with 103% in July.

Scoring just for June and now July, we have these numbers so far, going with half-point intervals for the five-point monthly forecasts but doubling up on last two so that two score 0.5 and two score 0.0, but note quite a few people tied for top score on June temperature with their 14.2 forecasts; note also that Con Sensus is scored without affecting the scores otherwise so there's another duplication.

The provisional scores for MAX temp and heavy RAIN events are based on current stats, five points for values and five for closest dates. These could change with later results.

August 2nd -- I have amended the provisionals for MAX rainfall as it appears that over 60 mm has fallen in some places around Dublin. This turns the "provisional" into an almost final (changed in edit) as amounts are now final (John mac already scoops 5.0 for his 90 mm as Dublin reached an astounding 84 mm ... minor adjustments have been edited in ... dates will only change in scoring if some day beats that 84 mm.


FORECASTER ___________ June IMT/PRC ____ July IMT/PRC _____ TOTAL so far ___ prov MAX _ prov RAIN


Bsal _____________________ 5.0___ 4.5 ____ 4.5 ___ 5.0 _____19.0 _______ 4.5,0.5 __ 0.5,4.0

rikand ___________________ 5.0___ 5.0 ____ 3.0 ___ 4.0 _____17.0 _______ 1.5,1.5 __ 4.5,0.5

Snowstreams ______________3.0___ 2.0 ____ 4.0 ___ 4.0 _____13.0 _______ 0.5,1.5 __ 3.5,5.0

lostinashford_______________2.0___ 4.0 ____ 0.5 ___ 4.5 _____11.0 _______ 1.5,5.0 __ 2.0,4.5

Billcarson _________________2.5___ 3.5 ____ 1.5 ___ 3.0 _____10.5 _______ 3.5,4.0 __ 1.0,3.0

John mac _________________ 5.0___ 3.5 ____ 2.0 ___ 0.0 _____10.5 _______ 3.0,3.0 __ 5.0,0.0

omicron __________________ 5.0___ 2.0 ____ 1.5 ___ 1.0 _____ 9.5 _______ 2.0,0.5 __ 3.5,0.5


Consensus ________________2.5___ 2.0 ____ 2.0 ___ 2.0 _____ 8.5 _______ 2.0,3.5 __ 2.0,4.5


DOCARCH ________________ 2.0___ 1.0 ____ 3.5 ___ 1.0 _____ 7.5 _______ 1.0,1.5 __ 2.0,2.0

Strasser__________________ 0.0 ___ 2.5 ____ 1.0 ___ 3.0 _____ 6.5 _______ 5.0,3.0 __ 0.5,4.0

sunflower3 ________________0.5 ___ 1.0 ____ 2.5 ___ 2.0 _____ 6.0 _______ 0.5,0.0 __ 0.5,1.0

M.T.Cranium ______________ 0.5 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.0 ___ 0.0 _____ 5.5 _______ 0.0,3.5 __ 4.0,4.0

pauldry __________________ 1.0 ___ 0.5 ____ 0.0 ___ 1.5 _____ 3.0 _______ 3.0,5.0 __ 2.5,2.0

force eleven _______________0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.5 ___ 1.0 _____ 1.5 _______ 2.5,3.0 __ 2.0,2.5
_____________________________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

Updated scoring report after August

IMT only 14.0 for August, and rainfall 124% of normal. That makes the seasonal values 14.9 and 90% of normal rainfall.

(edit) Sunshine at 123% (west coast mostly to be credited there) brought the season to 118%.

It is now possible to score every part of the contest, and these scores will become final unless there's a higher max or larger rainfall event.

IMT and PRC monthlies are worth a maximum of five. Seasonal IMT and PRC are scored from 15 down to 3. With temps, four (including Con) were 0.1 out, so I gave the 15 points to snowstreams whose monthly total was highest of those, and 14 to the rest. Then scores were given out in order, factoring in ties the same way. For seasonal precip, Lostinashford and Bsal were closest, with Bsal getting the nod for 15 points on a slightly better monthly score total.


FORECASTER _____ IMT (season) ____ PRC (season) ____ MAX.TEMP/ MAX.RAIN _ SUN _ TOTALS


Bsal ____________5.0_4.5_2.0_(12)__4.5_5.0_4.0_(15)___4.5,0.5__0.5,4.0___8___69.5

Snowstreams _____3.0_4.0_4.0_(15)__2.0_4.0_5.0__(7)___0.5,1.5__3.5,5.0__10___64.5

John mac ________5.0_2.0_4.0_(11)__3.5_0.0_2.5_(12)___3.0,3.0__5.0,0.0___7___58

lostinashford______2.0_0.5_3.0__(7)__4.0_4.5_3.0_(14)___1.5,5.0__2.0,4.5__ 5____56



Consensus _______2.5_2.0_2.0_(14)__2.0_2.0_2.5_(12)___2.0,3.5__2.0,4.5__ 5 ___ 56



rikand __________ 5.0_3.0_1.5_(11)__5.0_4.0_0.5_(11)___1.5,1.5__4.5,0.5___6___55

Billcarson ________2.5_1.5_0.5_(14)__3.5_3.0_0.0_(13)___3.5,4.0__1.0,3.0___1___50.5

omicron _________5.0_1.5_0.0__(9)__2.0_1.0_2.5_(10)___2.0,0.5__3.5,0.5__ 5 ___42.5

DOCARCH _______ 2.0_3.5_0.5__(8)__1.0_1.0_1.0__(8)___1.0,1.5__2.0,2.0__10___41.5

Strasser_________ 0.0_1.0_5.0__(5)__2.5_3.0_4.5__(6)___5.0,3.0__0.5,4.0___1___40.5

pauldry _________ 1.0_0.0_5.0__(5)__0.5_1.5_1.5__(9)___3.0,5.0__2.5,2.0___2___38

sunflower3 _______0.5_2.5_1.5_(14)__1.0_2.0_3.5__(6)___0.5,0.0__0.5,1.0___2 __35

force eleven ______0.0_0.5_2.5__(6)__0.0_1.0_0.5__(6)___2.5,3.0__2.0,2.5___4___30.5

M.T.Cranium______0.5_5.0_0.0__(3)__0.0_0.0_2.5__(3)___0.0,3.5__4.0,4.0___3___28.5
__________________________________________________________

Scores can now change only if there's a warmer temperature than 27.6 or a heavier one-day rainfall than 84 mm. If not, these become the final scores and (slight edit here) congrats to Bsal for a (not so) narrow win over Snowstreams, Johnmac and lostinashford with rikand close behind consensus.