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Summer 2014 forecast contest
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28-05-2014 2:21am#1Note -- This summer contest is independent of the monthly "Boards forecast contest" series and anyone can enter.
Each year since about 2010, we've had winter and summer forecast contests, so many of you will already know the rules. Please read carefully and use the template at the end of this post to enter. This is not a contest that can be entered by the monthly contest form that we use separately. You have to enter with a post on this thread.
Here are the simplified rules and a guide to how the contest will be scored.
1. Predict the monthly IMT values for June, July and August. We calculate your summer average, you don't need to enter that. The long-term averages for those three months are 13.7, 15.2 and 15.3 C. IMT as most will know is short for "Irish Mean temperature" and is our preferred average for five representative stations, Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon, as reported by Met Eireann in their monthly summaries and monthly data sections. scores 5 for each month plus 15 for the season.
2. Predict the monthly rainfall as percentage of normal, as reported by Met Eireann for eleven stations. These include the five above and also Malin Head, Valentia, Cork, Johnstown Castle, Ballyhaise and Belmullet. The averages are of course 100% of normal. The seasonal average will be calculated by us, so you don't need to enter that. scores 5 for each month plus 15 for the season.
3. Predict the highest temperature of summer, and the date when it will occur. We don't require the location. Summer is defined as the rest of the calendar year but the contest will be validated in late September, scores will be adjusted if by any chance the maximum occurs later. It is unlikely that we've already passed this value but if you think so, go with xx.x "previous" (check back on 31 May for the actual values to use) and this will be the minimum acceptable entry. scores 10 for the max and 10 for the date.
4. Predict the average sunshine for the entire season (not monthly) as a percentage of normal. This value will be calculated from our monthly contests as reported in the Met Eireann monthly summaries, then just a straight average of June, July and August. scores 10
5. Give the date of the heaviest calendar day rainfall anywhere in Ireland at an official reporting site from 1 June to 30 September and the amount in mm.
scores 5 for the amount and 5 for the date.
Scores will be based on rank order not absolute error, the details will be announced when the number of entrants is known. Last year's top score was 70/100 achieved by "harps."
Note that September is in play for maximum temperature of the summer season and for heaviest rainfall (calendar day is used, not consecutive 24h).
Please use this template or something very similar, for one thing, by using it you will be sure you've entered everything. I will try to contact people with incomplete or apparently invalid entries.
JUNE IMT = xxx
JULY IMT = xxx
AUG IMT = xxx
.. MTC calculates your seasonal
JUNE PRC = xxx%
JULY PRC = xxx%
AUG PRC = xxx%
.. MTC calculates your seasonal
SEASONAL MAX = xx.x on (day) of (any month to come) or xx.x so far 20.4 (previous date)
SUMMER SUNSHINE = xxx% (e.g., 109, 94 etc)
MAX RAINFALL = xxx.x mm on (day) of (month JJAS only)
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I've decided not to have penalties for late entries, just an absolute deadline which will be end of Wednesday, 4 June (0300h 5 June). So no rush, you have a few days to consider the guidance and do some calculations. Later deadline as I'm a bit late announcing this one.
The monthly boards contest thread will open on Wednesday 28th once I have the form details sorted out. You don't have to use the same forecasts in the two different contests. It gives you two different things to hope for each month.
This year I won't enter until near the end, I have a few surprises up my sleeve but smart contestants already have me on ignore anyway.6
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