Vettel now 50/1 for the championship

the culture of deference

I think it's time to go and put a bet on Seb for this year.

Red Bull, from Canada should be much closer to Merc, and Seb is in a position to achieve 5 WDC in a row. He will never have a better chance. He is only 75 points off Lewis who is his main competition.

When the RB comes good, once it is before Silverstone or German GP, Danny R and Seb should 1-2 each race. Danny is doing a really good job but wait until Seb gets his act together. We know Seb can win 9 in a row. It would be ironic if the double points at the end of the year win it for Seb.

Myrddin

the culture of deference wrote: »

Red Bull, from Canada should be much closer to Merc

Why's that? They're the nearest competitors, but I still think the Mercs will have >2 seconds a lap if they need it. The most recent track, Monaco, can't be used for any realistic comparisons imo, so it'll be back to business in Canada.

It would be ironic if the double points at the end of the year win it for Seb.

Stupid silly double points.

Zcott

I think the only chance Red Bull have are if the Mercedes guys crash into each other regularly. I think it's likely it'll happen at some point during the year but not with enough regularity to let anyone else have a look at the title.

With the exception of Lewis' engine failure in Australia, Mercedes have scored a 1-2 in every race. Do you really see that changing anytime soon?

Charlie-Bravo

So if I put €1,000 down, I'll win €50,000. So tempting; anyone got a lend?

Frank Bullitt

Hmmmm, I doubt even RB can overturn the gap at this stage.

Arthur Beesley

What are the odds on Alonso NOT winning a race this season?

Jordan 199

astrofluff wrote: »

So if I put €1,000 down, I'll win €50,000. So tempting; anyone got a lend?

I'll give you a loan. My interest rates are very friendly.*



































Terms and conditions apply.* The bank of Jordan 191 is purely self regulated.

52paddy

Seb doesn't seem riled up enough to contend for the championship, car woes aside. His form of late gives me the impression that he's almost resigned to the fact that Mercedes have the championship by its throat this year. I agree with Sitec - I think Ricciardo is Red Bull's better chance at challenging for the championship if any.

Gillespy

Any of you see Helmut Marko being interviewed on the BBC after Monaco, I said a little prayer for the Renault guys who had to deal with him, he looked pissed and even scarier than usual. Still too much for Seb to do even if Renault work miracles. Next year would be a better bet.

Ricciardo is everyone's fave at the moment. Likely to change if he gets involved in an intense title challenge and winning, Seb is a nice lad too and is hated by many. He was fortunate in Monaco that Kimi and Seb had problems after losing places off the line but it's been a great start for him.

the culture of deference

Myrddin wrote: »

Why's that? They're the nearest competitors, but I still think the Mercs will have >2 seconds a lap if they need it. The most recent track, Monaco, can't be used for any realistic comparisons imo, so it'll be back to business in Canada.

It could go like 2009 with Brawn.

Sebastian Vettel insists Red Bull is still a Formula 1 title contender, with a major engine upgrade planned for the Austrian Grand Prix set to boost his ambitions.

http://au.eurosport.com/formula-1/vettel-engine-upgrade-can-spur-red-bull-to-title_sto4264044/story.shtml

There were rumours around that Red Bull had built their own engine too.

Myrddin wrote: »

Stupid silly double points.

I agree

Zcott wrote: »

With the exception of Lewis' engine failure in Australia, Mercedes have scored a 1-2 in every race. Do you really see that changing anytime soon?

Yea. Seb will show his class this year when he understands the car and gets the upgrades. Danny is doing a great job, (he should have been able to keep Oz podium and fine the team) and he is being really modest about beating Seb. He must know what Seb is able to do from years of reading his telemetry.

http://www.punditarena.com/f1/renright/sebastian-vettel-just-good/

Zcott wrote: »

I think the only chance Red Bull have are if the Mercedes guys crash into each other regularly. I think it's likely it'll happen at some point during the year but not with enough regularity to let anyone else have a look at the title.

I think everyone up and down the ptilane is waiting for Lewis and Nico to take each other out once. If that happens there is a good chance of another. With the new Red Bull upgrades we could see a change.

http://www.planetf1.com/driver/18227/9327969/Merc-unity-won-t-last-forever-Boullier

Zcott

Whilst I agree that Red Bull will improve throughout the year, you're forgetting that Mercedes will too, and they're starting from a more advanced view anyway. This car has been under development for a few years, so they're way ahead of Red Bull in the development race. I don't doubt that they'll continue to improve the car at around the same pace as Red Bull.

I also agree that Vettel will get a hold on these cars soon enough but not quick enough to challenge for the title. Even with a race where Hamilton and Rosberg take each other out, it looks like it'll be Ricciardo there to pick up the pieces before Seb.

mickdw

Zcott wrote: »

Whilst I agree that Red Bull will improve throughout the year, you're forgetting that Mercedes will too, and they're starting from a more advanced view anyway. This car has been under development for a few years, so they're way ahead of Red Bull in the development race. I don't doubt that they'll continue to improve the car at around the same pace as Red Bull.

I also agree that Vettel will get a hold on these cars soon enough but not quick enough to challenge for the title. Even with a race where Hamilton and Rosberg take each other out, it looks like it'll be Ricciardo there to pick up the pieces before Seb.

it has been said that seb only excelled when blown diffuser was in play. I didn't quite believe that myself thinking that he had simply got the better off Webber over time and his momentum within the team did the rest. Seeing him this year v Ricciardo, you would have to think that there is some truth to it.

ZiabR

mickdw wrote: »

it has been said that seb only excelled when blown diffuser was in play. I didn't quite believe that myself thinking that he had simply got the better off Webber over time and his momentum within the team did the rest. Seeing him this year v Ricciardo, you would have to think that there is some truth to it.

There is no denying that Seb has struggled this year to get to grips with the new rules and cars but he has had some rotten luck too. I don't think we can look too deeply into it. Ricciardo has had the better of Seb on a number of tracks this year and seems to have settled into the new car quicker than Seb but again that stat is skewed due to Sebs software and mechanical issues.

Myrddin

the culture of deference wrote: »

It could go like 2009 with Brawn.

The Brawn example is a bit different. The advantage Brawn had, was simply an aerodynamic part that could be, & eventually was, copied & bolted on to other cars. The Mercedes advantage, is nowhere near as simple. Yes Red Bull will develop their car over the season, but so will Merc. I can't see Red Bull filling a >2 second a lap gap, while Merc developments stall. It's possible I suppose, but I doubt it. Red Bull are the 'best of the rest', & with a Renault donkey in the car, that's some serious going...goes to show the genius of Newey once again really.

djimi

the culture of deference wrote: »

I think everyone up and down the ptilane is waiting for Lewis and Nico to take each other out once. If that happens there is a good chance of another. With the new Red Bull upgrades we could see a change.

If it happens once it will only happen once. Mercedes are not stupid; they know that this season is a near formality for them for both titles and are happy to allow their drivers to race so long as they keep it clean. As soon as it gets messy they will be instructing one-two parades for the remainder of the season.

Myrddin

djimi wrote: »

If it happens once it will only happen once. Mercedes are not stupid; they know that this season is a near formality for them for both titles and are happy to allow their drivers to race so long as they keep it clean. As soon as it gets messy they will be instructing one-two parades for the remainder of the season.

It'd be very interesting to see how Hamilton copes with an arrangement like that if he's on the backside of the order. Fireworks.

the culture of deference

Myrddin wrote: »

The Brawn example is a bit different. The advantage Brawn had, was simply an aerodynamic part that could be, & eventually was, copied & bolted on to other cars. The Mercedes advantage, is nowhere near as simple. Yes Red Bull will develop their car over the season, but so will Merc. I can't see Red Bull filling a >2 second a lap gap, while Merc developments stall. It's possible I suppose, but I doubt it. Red Bull are the 'best of the rest', & with a Renault donkey in the car, that's some serious going...goes to show the genius of Newey once again really.

The engine upgrade is a massive step, Red Bull reckon that if they get within 50hp of Merc then they will beat them.

Myrddin wrote: »

It'd be very interesting to see how Hamilton copes with an arrangement like that if he's on the backside of the order. Fireworks.

He won't.

Zcott

Any engine upgrade will be great for Red Bull but it's the lack of blown diffuser that's really hurting Seb. Wouldn't be surprised if Ricciardo was there to pick up the pieces from a Merc fallout.

v3ttel

I think 50/1 is about right, given the evidence we've seen so far.

- The Renault engine is not reliable.

- The Renault engine is down on power. I know with the new Total fuel and the fact that they will finally run their engines at full power at Canada, should hopefully close the gap to a more reasonable level, but even then, best case, they will only be competing with Mercedes, not dominating them.

- It's worth pointing out that any time there is a big rule change Seb seems to struggle with his team mate for a while. When the off-throttle blown diffusers were banned, he struggled. He only won 1 of the first 13 races in 2012. He still won the championship as nobody was completely dominant and every one was taking points off each other. That is not happening this year. When Seb gets to grips with the competitive car and it is developed to his liking, I don't think there is anyone better or anybody that can match his robotic consistency.

- 70+ points is a massive gap. Don't forget, that's not just to one guy. BOTH of them would have to have a total collapse and incredibly bad luck. I expect another Merc 1-2 this weekend, so make that 90+. Even if Mercedes fell away completely Red Bull would have to be completely dominant and reliable. If Red Bull were constantly 1-2, I could only see Merc being 3-4 at this point. Red Bull being 1-2 constantly seems like a huge ask.

To sum up, Renault & Seb will both improve in the second half of the season, but will not claw back the massive advantage Merc have in the Championship.

the culture of deference

v3ttel wrote: »

I expect another Merc 1-2 this weekend, so make that 90+. Even if Mercedes fell away completely Red Bull would have to be completely dominant and reliable. If Red Bull were constantly 1-2, I could only see Merc being 3-4 at this point. Red Bull being 1-2 constantly seems like a huge ask.

To sum up, Renault & Seb will both improve in the second half of the season, but will not claw back the massive advantage Merc have in the Championship.

Great result for Red Bull. I still think Merc will be beaten to the title this year.

djimi

the culture of deference wrote: »

Great result for Red Bull. I still think Merc will be beaten to the title this year.

It took a mechanical catastrophe for anyone else to get anywhere near Mercedes this weekend. Assuming that doesnt become a regular issue for them (and it hasnt looked like being so far) then I really dont see them being beaten in either championship.