When do we start hearing about exit polls?

hatrickpatrick

Usually by this stage in Election Day there are already some exit polls floating around, haven't heard mention of any today, there wasn't one at my polling station when I was there anyway (although I'm in Sandycove polling station which is next to Dun Laoghaire so I'd imagine the exit pollers would go for the bigger polling station in the town) - is there one, and if so when and where will it be announced?

Henry94

9am tomorrow RTE news.

GarIT

Apparently they don't really bother for local elections.

ArmaniJeanss

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Usually by this stage in Election Day there are already some exit polls floating around, haven't heard mention of any today, there wasn't one at my polling station when I was there anyway (although I'm in Sandycove polling station which is next to Dun Laoghaire so I'd imagine the exit pollers would go for the bigger polling station in the town) - is there one, and if so when and where will it be announced?

Maybe there won't be any for the Euro elections because the vote isn't taking place until tomorrow in some countries?

Sierra Oscar

GarIT wrote: »

Apparently they don't really bother for local elections.

RTÉ were doing one for the local elections and both bye-elections according to some chatter on the ground.

GarIT

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

RTÉ were doing one for the local elections and both bye-elections according to some chatter on the ground.

That's surprising, I read that they won't bother for the locals because there are too many places to cover. I'd expect them for the Europeans and By elections though.

omicron

GarIT wrote: »

That's surprising, I read that they won't bother for the locals because there are too many places to cover. I'd expect them for the Europeans and By elections though.

Theres no point doing one for the europeans as the polls can't be released til 10pm Sunday wen voting closes across Europe, by which time the results will probably be ready anyway.

Sierra Oscar

omicron wrote: »

Theres no point doing one for the europeans as the polls can't be released til 10pm Sunday wen voting closes across Europe, by which time the results will probably be ready anyway.

They will do them at the same time. They just ask for how you voted for both.

omicron

My mistake.

The exit poll, commissioned from independent research company Behaviour and Attitudes, will look to reflect voting patterns in the European elections and nationwide in the Local elections.

I assumed they wouldn't when I read this BBC article earlier:

The exit poll gave estimates of the share of the vote each party had achieved and suggested how many seats each would get in the next European Parliament.

The poll was reported widely in the Netherlands and provoked considerable comment and reaction on social media sites such as Twitter.

But you won't see, read or hear any of that on the BBC. Why not?

Here's the relevant section of UK law from the European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 2004:

30. - (1) No person shall in the case of a European Parliamentary election publish before the close of the poll -

(a) any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted at the election where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or

(b) any forecast as to the result of the election which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-27535855

expectationlost

yes rte said here they doing a exit poll, it'll be out this morning http://www.rte.ie/about/en/press-office/press-releases/2014/0521/618705-rtes-announces-election-exit-poll-as-part-of-election-coverage/

RTÉ Radio 1 will be first with coverage as election regulars Sean O’Rourke and Rachael English present a special Elections 2014 programme from 9.00am to 1.00pm revealing the results from the RTÉ Exit Poll

pajor

Results from RTÉ's exit poll results for the European Elections:

Independents/Others: 27%

Fine Gael: 22%

Fianna Fáil: 22%

Sinn Féin: 17%

Labour: 6%

Green Party: 6%

Labour and the Greens both with approx the same vote. How times change.

Results from RTÉ's exit poll results for the Local Elections:

Independents/Others: 28%

Fine Gael: 24%

Fianna Fáil: 22%

Sinn Féin: 16%

Labour: 7%

Green Party: 3%

Sir Oxman

Dublin Euros tally has SF 24% FG 14%

Hayes in trouble.
Ryan on 14% <---transfer friendly

Harry Angstrom

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Dublin Euros tally has SF 24% FG 14%

Hayes in trouble.
Ryan on 14% <---transfer friendly

It will be some kick in his shiny teeth if Hayes doesn't get a seat. Here's hoping.

Scofflaw

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It will be some kick in his shiny teeth if Hayes doesn't get a seat. Here's hoping.

They are unpleasantly shiny teeth. Highly kickable.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sand

Encouraging to see the strong performance of independents in the exit polls, making them the single biggest political "group". Hopefully a trend that continues.

It is disappointing to see that the 3rd Dublin seat seems to be a fight between the Greens and Fianna Fail. Demonstrates that at least a minority of the Irish people very quickly forget the damage both parties have done to the country.

pajor

No surprises I don't think.

The full exit poll results for the constituency are:

Brian Crowley (FF): 26%

Liadh Ní Riada (SF): 17%

Seán Kelly (FG): 12%

Deirdre Clune (FG): 9%

Simon Harris (FG): 7%

Kieran Hartley (FF): 5%

Diarmuid O'Flynn (Ind): 5%

Grace O'Sullivan (GP): 5%

Phil Prendergast (Lab): 5%

Richard Cahill (Ind): 3%

Peter O'Loughlin (Ind): 2%

Jillian Godsil (Ind): 1%

Theresa Heaney (CD): 1%

Dónal Ó Ríordáin (FN): 1%

Jan Van De Ven (DDI): 1%

Amirani

Sand wrote: »

It is disappointing to see that the 3rd Dublin seat seems to be a fight between the Greens and Fianna Fail. Demonstrates that at least a minority of the Irish people very quickly forget the damage both parties have done to the country.

I don't think that's what it demonstrates at all. Also, I'm sure many people have different views on what each party did during the previous government and what sort of difference that makes in a European election.

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

A Dub in Glasgo

I am sure some chaps in Tallinn are excitingly watching the Irish exit polls

pajor

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

They're not actual results, so I don't think that counts.

In 2009, the Dutch released actual results before other countries had voted (I'm pretty sure) so that got them in hot water.

Whatever the case, I blame RTE.

comongethappy

Is there any results from councils yet?

JONJO THE MISER

To say Ming will top the poll is not a done deal, there are no tallys in a lot of the eastern counties, and the tally in louth does not even mention ming.

Sparks43

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It will be some kick in his shiny teeth if Hayes doesn't get a seat. Here's hoping.

Seen Hayes campaigning for votes outside a church were kids were making their communion.

Sickens me tbh

GarIT

Sparks43 wrote: »

Seen Hayes campaigning for votes outside a church were kids were making their communion.

What's wrong with that? People don't have to talk to him if they don't want to. I don't think her was interfering with their day or anything.

Puzzle35

Is there anywhere I can see who is elected in all the Dublin areas. Has to be online, tv broken......please?.

GarIT

Puzzle35 wrote: »

Is there anywhere I can see who is elected in all the Dublin areas. Has to be online, tv broken......please?.

RTE election tracker? Or watch RTE one online?

Puzzle35

Can't find this on my iPad. Want to see inchicore / driminagh area if anyone knows results?? Thanks.

Scofflaw

pajor wrote: »

Does quoting euro exit polls not violate the embargo as it may influence voters elsewhere in Europe that vote tomorrow?

They're not actual results, so I don't think that counts.

In 2009, the Dutch released actual results before other countries had voted (I'm pretty sure) so that got them in hot water.

Whatever the case, I blame RTE.

They're apparently OK as long as they don't purport to be real exit polls or any form of real estimate. A survey of preferences is OK.

The Dutch have a constitutional requirement to release an exit poll, which clashes with the embargo.

Exit polls will be available for all Europe starting at 9pm Sunday evening (although the Italians are voting until 10pm our time, I think).

cordially,
Scofflaw

pajor

Puzzle35 wrote: »

Can't find this on my iPad. Want to see inchicore / driminagh area if anyone knows results?? Thanks.

http://m.rte.ie/news/touch/election2014/#/local/A07

Sand

I see Arthur Beesley in the Irish Times is getting the "punished for making the hard decisions" narrative in place early.

A country that voted for swingeing economic repair only three years ago is punishing the Government for doing just that.

Labour is being punished for its dishonesty, incompetence and contempt of the mandate it was given by the people. Fine Gael is being punished for the same, but on a slightly lesser scale. But down in the FG/Labour bunker, I'm sure they prefer the "punished for making the hard decisions" nonsense.

Sand

Diego Simeone wrote: »

I don't think that's what it demonstrates at all. Also, I'm sure many people have different views on what each party did during the previous government and what sort of difference that makes in a European election.

I'm sure people can rationalise it in many different ways to their own satisfaction. It's just sad that only 3 years pass and the parties comprising the worst government this country has ever had again become electable and representative in the eyes of a significant minority.