Friday 9th May

rossom · 08-05-2014 5:47pm #1

I think 7.15 Ascot Discussiontofollow 10/1 is a Pattern Class horse in the making and over a straight 6f in what is likely to be a race run at a really decent clip he could devour this lot. He put up one of the most visually impressive performances of the season when he won by the cheekiest of necks with Shane Kelly not even breathing on him from Absolutely So (also an improving horse who has since won well off a 9lb higher mark) and I don't think he handled Windsor when beaten 1L last time off a 10lb higher mark of 86 and I thought he did very well to finish so close. Raised a further 2lb higher mark to a mark of 88, I'm bloody bullish that this horse has a big future and hopefully he can come out on top in this big field handicap sprint.

UrbanSea · 08-05-2014 9:32pm

Took 12s Blessington in the same race. He is proving expensive to follow, but should have a good handicap in him this year. Tomorrow should suit with a strong pace to aim at, but it is wide open.

NaiveMelodies · 08-05-2014 9:36pm

rossom wrote: »

I think 7.15 Ascot Discussiontofollow 10/1 is a Pattern Class horse in the making and over a straight 6f in what is likely to be a race run at a really decent clip he could devour this lot. He put up one of the most visually impressive performances of the season when he won by the cheekiest of necks with Shane Kelly not even breathing on him from Absolutely So (also an improving horse who has since won well off a 9lb higher mark) and I don't think he handled Windsor when beaten 1L last time off a 10lb higher mark of 86 and I thought he did very well to finish so close. Raised a further 2lb higher mark to a mark of 88, I'm bloody bullish that this horse has a big future and hopefully he can come out on top in this big field handicap sprint.

This one had slipped my mind!! Thanks for the reminder!

Remember watching that race in Kempton, well worth a watch for anyone who hasn't seen it, cheeky doesn't do it justice!

ft9 · 08-05-2014 9:39pm

Geraghty doing 10st 6 on Suffren tomorrow in the 6.55. A tip in itself. 3/1 with PP

qc3 · 08-05-2014 11:26pm

Friday pricewise

You could be Laffan all the way to the bank

THE rain came down in torrents at Chester yesterday afternoon and by the end of the day the ground was really testing. Even on soft ground a low draw is a big advantage but it is not as marked, especially with the rail being moved out a further three yards before racing today, and if there is a distance at the track over which the draw is not as crucial it is 7½f.
In 2012 Pintura won this race from stall 12 and Lowther was third from stall 15 the year before, so the precedent is there and yesterday Tim Easterby won the sprint handicap with a horse drawn in stall nine. Consequently, it could be worth chancing Laffan from the outside stall in the sportingbet.com Earl Grosvenor Handicap (1.45).
This horse loves Chester and soft ground and is undoubtedly on a good mark on the best of his form. Tim Easterby will have targeted this race for him for some time and if he had been drawn lower I would have been extremely keen on his chance.
Even from his outside draw his task is not impossible with conditions as they are, and the 33-1 is way too big a price.
The key will be a strong pace to string out the field, which will allow David Allan to drop in not too far off the pace, and with Big Johnny D in stall two wearing blinkers for the first time it’s almost certain the gallop will be fast and furious.
Here Comes When has a big chance if he’s fit after nearly a year off the track, but this ground will find out any weaknesses on that score, while the beautifully bred Abseil has to prove he can cope with testing ground. He’s from a family of fast-ground performers and that is a massive concern.
As such this race has a nice betting shape to it, provided there aren’t too many non-runners, and the other one I like at a big price is Pintura, who will relish the conditions and track and also appears to have been laid out for the race.
He has dropped to a mark he can certainly win off and Kevin Ryan has opted for cheekpieces, which could sharpen him up.
Aidan O’Brien has dominated the Derby trials at this meeting for a few years and has a strong hand in the Dee Stakes, which he won last year with Breeders’ Cup Turf hero Magician.
However, there has to be a big worry about Century as he was tailed off on testing ground in last season’s Racing Post Trophy. Kingfisher might handle conditions better but that is not guaranteed either.
That leaves the Mark Johnston-trained pair, but the form choice Somewhat also ran badly in the Racing Post Trophy, so it could be worth chancing Bow Creek at 7-1.
He didn’t run up to scratch at Musselburgh last time but that was a strong race and he was giving lots of weight away. Proven on soft ground, Franny Norton might be able to dictate and he might be able to spring a surprise in the ground.
I can’t believe last year’s winner Mount Athos is going to be anywhere near his best on the ground in the Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes and this could be a good chance for local hero Brown Panther to get his head in front again. And as much as I like See The Sun in the sprint handicap, his price is nothing to write home about.

Advice

Pintura
1.45 Chester
1pt win at 14-1 with bet365 (12-1 generally)

Laffan
1.45 Chester
1pt win at 33-1 with Boylesports (28-1 generally)

Bow Creek
2.15 Chester
1pt win at 7-1 with Coral
(6-1 generally)

mr.jingle · 09-05-2014 5:37am

Find it interesting Jim Crowley goes to Lingfield for only one ride before going to Ascot for the night meeting, Saucy Minx in the 2.35 @ 3/1. Very good strike rate with Amanda Perrett runners with profit of around €30 to a level stake of €1 in the past 12 months. My only fancy for the day.

Id be disappointed if Hillstar didn't win at Chester

wicklowwonder · 09-05-2014 7:33am

ft9 wrote: »

Geraghty doing 10st 6 on Suffren tomorrow in the 6.55. A tip in itself. 3/1 with PP

Into 11/4 this morning and moved to 9/4 now.

irish_major · 09-05-2014 10:38am

rossom wrote: »

I think 7.15 Ascot Discussiontofollow 10/1 is a Pattern Class horse in the making and over a straight 6f in what is likely to be a race run at a really decent clip he could devour this lot. He put up one of the most visually impressive performances of the season when he won by the cheekiest of necks with Shane Kelly not even breathing on him from Absolutely So (also an improving horse who has since won well off a 9lb higher mark) and I don't think he handled Windsor when beaten 1L last time off a 10lb higher mark of 86 and I thought he did very well to finish so close. Raised a further 2lb higher mark to a mark of 88, I'm bloody bullish that this horse has a big future and hopefully he can come out on top in this big field handicap sprint.

Non runner after being punted off the board

UrbanSea · 09-05-2014 11:41am

Backed that cliff horse St Moritz at 7s now well backed

BumperD · 09-05-2014 12:03pm

For those having a go at Chester today, the market this week has been very informative. Keep a close eye on the betting in the run up to the race before putting your cash down.

tomaussie · 09-05-2014 12:45pm

Gone with two from the thread again.

Pintura and st moritz.

rossom · 09-05-2014 2:11pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Backed that cliff horse St Moritz at 7s now well backed

Didn't understand why Danny Tudhope rode Kevin Ryans in that and Sam James rides St Moritz.

rossom · 09-05-2014 2:12pm

irish_major wrote: »

Non runner after being punted off the board

Declared for York next week.

BorneTobyWilde · 09-05-2014 2:24pm

Forest walker 3.25
me like

Luap · 09-05-2014 2:42pm

Maybe Verse of Love get a winner for Egan.

Luap · 09-05-2014 2:52pm

What a ride booooom. Congrats to Egan great little jock!

BumperD · 09-05-2014 3:59pm

Was going to back Suffren @ Cork but value is gone now imo. Going to have an ew punt on Basil Berry in the 8.20 @ 12/1 at Ascot. Has plenty of experience on aw and seemed to put up a very good performance when comfortably accounting for a race fit & fancied hannon runner lto on truf. Going/trip fine. This is a drop in grade so not sure why he's 12/1 but that will do for me.