Can an election return a 'hung' Dáil?

flazio

This got me wondering.
We are seeing a growing mob hate towards FG and Lab over the quality of living in Ireland this past few years. However not all voters have forgotten the Ahern/Cowen days and aren't ready to forgive and may swing towards an independent or a party like Sinn Fein.
The current British parliament exists because the British voters had lost faith in Labour but hadn't forgotten the poor times with the Tories in the 80s and 90s. Hence the hung Parliament and the Tory/Lib Dem coalition.

Is our coalition culture strong enough that we won't have a situation where we vote ourselves a Dail but no Government?

Riskymove

flazio wrote: »

Is our coalition culture strong enough that we won't have a situation where we vote ourselves a Dail but no Government?

we've had minority governments on a couple of occassions propped up by the votes of a few independents

In the UK they have very few Independents elected so the possibility of a hung Dail and another election is higher

jhegarty

If it happens someone will just round up some independents and greens that might sneak back in when no one is looking.

seamus

To paraphrase a quote from my Facebook feed around the time of the last UK GE - "What British people freak out about and call a 'hung parliament', we call 'business as usual' in Ireland".

The term doesn't really apply to a system like ours anymore because the days of FG and FF operating in a two-party incumbent majority are over. We now have a multi-party system where it's unlikely that any single party will ever be able to form a government alone, so a "hung" vote is typical. Though it can be used to refer to the scenario where no alliance of parties can form a stable government. As the diversity of the parties increases, the odds of a hung Dail actually drop since most parties recognise that being in power in an alliance is worth more than sitting in opposition.

The the next GE will be interesting. Will FF & FG finally form a coalition government, or will they turn to SF to king them?

DazMarz

I said a while back that come 2016, it could easily be FF/SF. FF would do anything, and I do mean anything, to get back into power, while SF would love to get into power for the first time. But that is looking increasingly unlikely, as neither would have enough seats to form a government if they combined.

FF/FG would be another possibility, with the old civil war rivals putting aside their "differences" (which are, what? They're basically two sides of the same coin, in fairness). But again, would they have enough to secure power in coalition?

Whatever happens, there is one thing to bear in mind. Enda Kenny would give his left nut to be the first FG Taoiseach to serve two consecutive terms and to see FG retain power. I don't think they've ever done it, and boy would he love to have that in the history books. He will do anything and everything in an attempt to get FG back in come 2016. But will it be enough? The people are sickened.

SF are not doing enough to capitalise on their relative popularity. There are areas of the country where there is no SF presence worth talking about. SF should start exploiting untapped areas from now. That way they could run even more candidates in the 2016 General Election. If only to have a spoiler effect on others, SF could do worse than running even more candidates in 2016, even if they are "sacrificial lamb" candidates. It will expand the base and serve them well.

This upcoming local election is the election for the Independents and Sinn Féin. And quite possibly the 2016 GE. But after that, as things normalise and economic recovery continues and so on, people will drift back to the parties. The protest/angry vote will shrink and the cycle will, regrettably, return to the swing of either FF or FG. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that the door is open for Independents and SF now, but it's slowly starting to close. By 2021 (the next GE, possibly), it will be barely ajar, if open at all. The time to capitalise on it for Indos and SF is now and 2016. If they don't capitalise on it, the ship will sail.

As for a hung Dáil, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see it, and we could have (like 1982) two GE's in the one year...

hatrickpatrick

In an ideal parliamentary system there'd be no such thing, as the cabinet would simply be elected by the Dail, but in our party based system, it's a possibility.

Annasopra

I would never rule out

FG/FF
FG/SF