JNLR 1 May 2014

chilloutrelax

JNLR results are out tomrrow.

The following should be of interest:

1. Pat Kenny's new show on Newtalk
2. Impact of changes to 2fm
3. Will 98fm improve?
4. Will FM104 remain dominant


Anyone any other thoughts?

jmcc

Yeah. Wonder how Tubridy on 2FM and Marty Whelan on LyricFM will do since they are both trying to target the chat radio market? Will LyricFM's figures be good or bad?

Regards...jmcc

Chip Whitley

I'm interested to see:

- Ray D'Arcy, he lost listeners last time out.

- Ray Foley gained last time, will he still be gaining.

- KC's last book on Today FM, will it be tough for Louise Duffy to follow.

- Tony Fenton has missed chunks of air time, will it affect his listenership.

- Tubridy's figures.


Is it too soon to get a decent read on the Breakfast Republic?

heybaby

Too early to see impact of changes on 2fm yet, another 3-6 months for a credible initial read of the situation in Montrose. I'd say Kenny will be up again.

wnolan1992

Yeah, way too early to get an impression of how things are at 2FM. These changes are what, a month old at this point?

I'm gonna be really interested to see:
- NT Breakfast, has Yates' return boosted it?
- Pat Kenny and Sean O'Rourke, how has the switch worked?
- Is Ray Foley still gaining?
- How's Continuity Off the Ball doing?


Too early to get a read on 2FM, Red FM and Louise Duffy at this stage I'd say. Probably won't get a good picture for at least another book, if not two...

Mr Pseudonym

-Will Newstalk further increase its Share?
-Will Kenny bring improvements to Breakfast and Lunchtime?
-Will Moncrieff's audience continue to increase?

Can Arena lose more listeners? Liveline was in-line to overtake Morning Ireland at one stage; will it recover after a poor Q4?

Losty Dublin

Will 98 begin to make a recovery in Dublin?

wnolan1992

FYI, I'm reading everyone's question in a movie trailer voice and pretending they're flashing in front of my eyes in massive writing getting increasingly more frantic...

Seren_

Yay, JNLR time is always interesting. Especially with the great analysis that's often posted by people on here.

I'll be interested to see if 98 have made any gains since the last book, especially Ray Foley. And of course how Pat Kenny/Sean O'Rourke are getting on. Looking forward to having a laugh at 2FM's ridiculous as usual figures and seeing whether the overall radio listenership will decrease or remain steady. Especially interested in seeing an age breakdown of the listenership, and whether it's falling much quicker in younger age brackets etc. Can't remember if that's laid out clearly, or whether we'll just have to make assumptions based on figures for the regionals etc.

Mr Pseudonym

Conor? Are you ready?!

blue4ever

and willing.........

http://goo.gl/CXQQGw


Cheers

Normal experment in radio stuff

Mr Pseudonym

blue4ever wrote: »

and willing.........

http://goo.gl/CXQQGw


Cheers

Normal experment in radio stuff

I'm disappointed: you were on the hour last time!

Losty Dublin

Early indications seem to be that Newstalk and 98 have pulled up a little bit. We eagerly await the Analyst's report of the in's and outs of everything

Mr Pseudonym

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

-Will Newstalk further increase its Share?
-Will Kenny bring improvements to Breakfast and Lunchtime?
-Will Moncrieff's audience continue to increase?

Can Arena lose more listeners? Liveline was in-line to overtake Morning Ireland at one stage; will it recover after a poor Q4?

It's a more interesting book than I thought it would be.

Newstalk increases its National Share by a percentage point (12%).
To the next two, I think the answers can probably be said to be a Yes and Yes.

If RTE is to make a real commitment to Arts, it must move Arena out of the 7pm slot - it's withering there. Liveline reached saturation a few quarters ago.

hotmail.com

Pat Kenny up 18,000, Sean O'Rourke down 15,000.

Mr Pseudonym

A few more things: losses across all the "drivetime" slots. The combined Share of music stations in Dublin down about 8%; has "the youth" migrated elsewhere? I'm sorta dubious of Marty Whelan's numbers: such a small (and, therefore, unreliable) percentage of the sample is responsible for the increase, and I can imagine his type of listener "massaging" the truth when responding to the survey, but, ignoring that, he continues to climb. Tubridy - how are you still losing listeners?! It's remarkable that the slots after him should be rising as he is falling. Newstalk will be delighted; 2FM overtaking Today in Dublin seems more than achievable.

Thanks as always, blue4ever.

ThisRegard

Big drop for Joe Duffy.

Mr Pseudonym

FM104 on Twitter:

"Another great day for us here in Macken House with FM104 continuing to dominate the Dublin radio market..."

Erm... :rolleyes:

Mr Pseudonym

This is the first article, I think: Radio wars: Pat Kenny climbs 18,000 listeners while Sean O'Rourke falls by 15,000 | Irish Independent.

It is so appallingly misleading. I think our media is unique in so prominently reporting every survey. And, if they're going to, they should at least have someone with a vague knowledge of the survey write the piece.

bbability

I can't find Nova's figures? All Dublin stations have taken a hit. 4fm not looking great.

Travismccoy

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

FM104 on Twitter:

"Another great day for us here in Macken House with FM104 continuing to dominate the Dublin radio market..."

Erm... :rolleyes:

Can you post a link to that tweet please? I can't find it. Is 12%+ market share (the highest for a music station in Dublin) not dominant, no?

Uepped

I think the jnlr's are a load of bull****, Every radio station claims to be "Irelands fastest growing station"

King of Pork

What does it mean for that heap of shoite Breakfast Republic on 2FM??

Greyham

Uepped wrote: »

I think the jnlr's are a load of bull****, Every radio station claims to be "Irelands fastest growing station"

Yea, that's generally only a shtick the newer ones use though.

If one year you have 500 listeners and then next year you have 1,000? You increased by 100%?

Well boyhowdy, you're Ireland's fastest growing radio station.

hotmail.com

It looks like the general decline of radio listenership is continuing. More and more people are tuning out.

Claude Burgundy

Good gain for Newstalk Breakfast and a drop for Hook !

Mr Pseudonym

Travismccoy wrote: »

Can you post a link to that tweet please? I can't find it. Is 12%+ market share (the highest for a music station in Dublin) not dominant, no?

They are dominant. But, it's the second book in a row that they've lost chunks. So...not "another great day".

I saw it on a Twitter stream that's on Radio Today.

Edit: apologies - it wasn't a tweet. Radio Today was quoting "Group Programme Director" Dave Kelly whom, it appears, they directly spoke to.

SaveOurLyric

Big increases for Lyric and for Marty Whelan. Clear proof the station has sold its soul to the devil. Most depressing.
To regain any self respect, the management must implement strategies to get their listenership back to a value of 'below, but close to, 2%'.

blue4ever

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

This is the first article, I think: Radio wars: Pat Kenny climbs 18,000 listeners while Sean O'Rourke falls by 15,000 | Irish Independent.

It is so appallingly misleading. I think our media is unique in so prominently reporting every survey. And, if they're going to, they should at least have someone with a vague knowledge of the survey write the piece.

Whats a load of my bo11ox that article is: You know, I saw the headline here on the Boards and said to myself 'that has to be an Indo article' ............which it was.

And I quote:

"And it looks like radio listeners are switching the dial to Newstalk to follow broadcaster Pat Kenny"

Is this, as they call it in TV, 'scripted reality'? - here - write this, and use your the bosses punchline! Switch the script please!

I've nothing against any station and actually think that Pat jumping ship was a breath of fresh air to the morning market. But the article leaves a lot to be desired, especially in terms of balance (the opening few pars anyway - the rest is fine.......)

Mr Pseudonym

blue4ever wrote: »

Whats a load of my bo11ox that article is: You know, I saw the headline here on the Boards and said to myself 'that has to be an Indo article' ............which it was.

And I quote:

"And it looks like radio listeners are switching the dial to Newstalk to follow broadcaster Pat Kenny"

Is this, as they call it in TV, 'scripted reality'? - here - write this, and use your the bosses punchline! Switch the script please!

I've nothing against any station and actually think that Pat jumping ship was a breath of fresh air to the morning market. But the article leaves a lot to be desired, especially in terms of balance (the opening few pars anyway - the rest is fine.......)

I think Laura Slattery in the IT is very good. This is her effort: Newstalk adds listeners but Radio 1 holds its own | Irish Times.

blue4ever

yea - that's fair enough

jmcc

SaveOurLyric wrote: »

Big increases for Lyric and for Marty Whelan. Clear proof the station has sold its soul to the devil. Most depressing.
To regain any self respect, the management must implement strategies to get their listenership back to a value of 'below, but close to, 2%'.

Tubridy losing listeners to Tubridy-lite? Guess one of them might be for the chop or moved around the schedule.

Regards...jmcc

wnolan1992

Uepped wrote: »

I think the jnlr's are a load of bull****, Every radio station claims to be "Irelands fastest growing station"

Your issue is more with marketing spin than the actual survey tbh. All stations are going to try and extract something from the figures that they can shout about, s'just how it goes.

King of Pork wrote: »

What does it mean for that heap of shoite Breakfast Republic on 2FM??

Nothing. It's a general consensus that it takes 6-9 months (i.e, 2-3 JNLR books) to get a good read on how a show is doing. Breakfast Republic has been on air for about a month, so way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions.

hotmail.com wrote: »

It looks like the general decline of radio listenership is continuing. More and more people are tuning out.

You'd wonder how many are tuning out completely as opposed to moving to podcasts, listen back, stations outside their area, etc.

For instance, judging by the Ray Foley Show thread, there's a fair few of us that listen to Foley on the 98 site or through podcasts, but we wouldn't be counted in JNLR figures.

Not saying it'd be a MASSIVE contingent or anything, would just be curious to see a study done on it or something.

Mr Pseudonym

blue4ever wrote: »

Whats a load of my bo11ox that article is: You know, I saw the headline here on the Boards and said to myself 'that has to be an Indo article' ............which it was.

And I quote:

"And it looks like radio listeners are switching the dial to Newstalk to follow broadcaster Pat Kenny"

Is this, as they call it in TV, 'scripted reality'? - here - write this, and use your the bosses punchline! Switch the script please!

I've nothing against any station and actually think that Pat jumping ship was a breath of fresh air to the morning market. But the article leaves a lot to be desired, especially in terms of balance (the opening few pars anyway - the rest is fine.......)

Just reread the article; does one "switch" a dial?!

Travismccoy

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

They are dominant. But, it's the second book in a row that they've lost chunks. So...not "another great day".

I saw it on a Twitter stream that's on Radio Today.

Edit: apologies - it wasn't a tweet. Radio Today was quoting "Group Programme Director" Dave Kelly whom, it appears, they directly spoke to.

Fair enough. I wouldn't worry too much about what Radio Today says though, Enda Caldwell is one of their main writers as far as I know.

We must be looking at different books. My one says they increased market share today.

hotmail.com

wnolan1992 wrote: »

Your issue is more with marketing spin than the actual survey tbh. All stations are going to try and extract something from the figures that they can shout about, s'just how it goes.



Nothing. It's a general consensus that it takes 6-9 months (i.e, 2-3 JNLR books) to get a good read on how a show is doing. Breakfast Republic has been on air for about a month, so way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions.



You'd wonder how many are tuning out completely as opposed to moving to podcasts, listen back, stations outside their area, etc.

For instance, judging by the Ray Foley Show thread, there's a fair few of us that listen to Foley on the 98 site or through podcasts, but we wouldn't be counted in JNLR figures.

Not saying it'd be a MASSIVE contingent or anything, would just be curious to see a study done on it or something.

Given that it's a survey, I suspect listening online is taken into account? I could be wrong on that.

People that like their music and don't want to listen to ads, the news etc have moved onto outlets to get their music fix on their daily commute. I think talk radio has a better future than 'music' radio.

RadioCritic

Travismccoy wrote: »

Fair enough. I wouldn't worry too much about what Radio Today says though, Enda Caldwell is one of their main writers as far as I know.

Enda doesn't do any writing on Radio Today, it's all written by the owner Roy Martin.

Five Lamps

blue4ever wrote: »

Whats a load of my bo11ox that article is: You know, I saw the headline here on the Boards and said to myself 'that has to be an Indo article' ............which it was.

And I quote:

"And it looks like radio listeners are switching the dial to Newstalk to follow broadcaster Pat Kenny"

Is this, as they call it in TV, 'scripted reality'? - here - write this, and use your the bosses punchline! Switch the script please!

I've nothing against any station and actually think that Pat jumping ship was a breath of fresh air to the morning market. But the article leaves a lot to be desired, especially in terms of balance (the opening few pars anyway - the rest is fine.......)

Sure who owns both?

IRE60

wnolan1992

hotmail.com wrote: »

Given that it's a survey, I suspect listening online is taken into account? I could be wrong on that.

Think this came up previously and it's FM only or something. Ray Foley used always say stuff like "We love our podcast listeners and people who listen online, but ye're not worth a sh*te to us." back on the Today FM podcasts.

Skid X

wnolan1992 wrote: »

Think this came up previously and it's FM only or something. Ray Foley used always say stuff like "We love our podcast listeners and people who listen online, but ye're not worth a sh*te to us." back on the Today FM podcasts.

I could be completely wrong, but I suspect Ray Foley's Podcasts don't count for the JNLR because they are have different content to the regular show. They don't feature the adverts which are broadcast on the radio, so advertisers don't really care how many people are listening to them.

But if you were listening to the show online in realtime and had to sit through the ads (and live in their catchment area) would that not count to the JNLR?

If they don't, you would wonder why any of the commercial stations bother with their streams.

SaveOurLyric

jmcc wrote: »

Tubridy losing listeners to Tubridy-lite? Guess one of them might be for the chop or moved around the schedule.

Regards...jmcc

No interest in what they do with Tubs. Its only booting Marto Il Magnifico out of Lyric that will give Ireland's cultural soul a chance of redemption. O for a hero of pure heart in the Lyric management willing to pick up the spear?

RadioAnalyst

Out of the country again this week so my 2p worth on the JNLR is particularly late this time around.

As always, total respect to Conor at ilevel.ie for the graphs and the breakdowns.

Let's get straight to the Good book/Bad Book detail. As always, my thoughts focus on the Dublin area although I am happy to answer any questions on other areas that I can. My DOI is that I work in the Sales/Marketing world but not directly in Radio. Most of my comparisons are book on book or based on trends rather than the (equally valid!) ilevel model which is based Year on Year.

Bad book for Radio in general again. Although there was a small increase in some sectors this time around, the continueing drop off in Radio listening among 15-24 year olds continues and that has now extended to the 15-34 year old group as well. Taking a quick look at two years ago for instance - 78% of 15-24 year olds and 81% of 15-34 year olds were listening to FM radio. 74% of 15-24 year olds now listen to FM radio and 75% of 15-34 year olds tune in. Radio listenership is steady, but only with the older 35s. Radio (stations or regulator) continue to do nothing about it.

Good book for Newstalk this time around as was to be expected with the arrival of Pat Kenny. The reappearance of Ivan Yates can't be underestimated either though, the 0.7% increase in share is very commendable. Upstairs in Marconi the picture is not so good. Today FM continues to trend downwards in the capital and is losing about .6% a year which is not good when you consider their share is only 5.8% now. There is a tough task ahead for the new PD and of course the new Group PD too. The man with the chequebook will not be happy at all if Today FM is overtaken in the next book by 2FM who are now only 0.1% behind.

Better book for 98FM who have at least arrested the decline in share this time around. They have slipped another notch behind 2FM though which will not go down well. Three years ago, 98's share was up around the 12% mark. There is a significant 'soft' audience listening to other stations though, so there is plenty of market share up for grabs. Spin tend to bounce up and down between 6-7% and continue that this time around. Their problem, as mentioned above is that their new audience isn't just not listening to them, it's not listening at all.

Over the river to UTV HQ now and while 104 showed a continuing drop in reach, they continue to utterly dominate the music market in terms of share adding another 0.4% to bring them to 12.5%. Stablemates Q102 have also stopped the rot of recent books by bagging themselves an extra 0.2% to bring them back ot 6.9%, although that is quite some distance short of the peak and they are likely to be damaged if 98FM manage to find the elixir of success at some point.

Around the corner on Castleforbes Road, the best performer amazingly was Sunshine 106.8 who have now managed to increase their share to a very respectable 2.7% which means that they now comfortably outperform their bigger brother in 4FM which has seen it's rise come to a halt with a drop of 0.3% in share. 4FM have the potential to cash in on that 'soft' audience too but it really has been a long fight for them with very little reward. Not such a good book for Nova either who shed a decent chunk (0.4%) of share although they are still at 3.8% which is in itself very impressive. Nova haven't been quite so visible in terms of advertising presence in the last while and perhaps that is a contributing factor.

Finally this is the final time that I will be measuring the performance of Phantom in these summaries. I was a fan of the station for a number of years and even spent money with them in the early licenced years when I was a buyer. The slow and painful demise has not been easy to watch and I still have serious admiration for many of those who were involved there over the years. At least the final book finished on something of a high with an increase in share to 1.0%, doubtless aided by the publicity surrounding it's closure and the fact that the station sounded something like it's old self in the final weeks. What about TXFM? It should get a bump in the short term at least but only time will tell if what TXFM is offering is unique enough to stop it's audience from deserting not just it, but radio. Good luck to them and farewell Phantom.

RadioAnalyst

leggo

Thanks to RadioAnalyst as always, I look forward to those recaps as much as the results themselves.

98 have an interesting one coming up next as we really start to see the difference that wooing Adrian and Jeremy will bring. Looking forward to that one, they have the potential to do damage with their following. If that doesn't work then it's pretty much definitive proof that Dublin listeners follow the steady brand and not the names (though I still think the station as a whole could benefit from more imaginative marketing campaigns/stunts...listeners don't seem to care for minor nuances like 'just good radio') and I don't see what else they can really try if 104 are still as dominant this time next year.

Also happy (well happy is the wrong word, vindicated maybe) to see that what I've been saying for years about online slowly chipping away at overall listenership. I used to get murdered for saying that would happen on Radiowaves. The mass market only tolerated bland, middle-of-the-road radio because it was the least offensive option. With online becoming big business worldwide, now the public en masse are slowly realising that there's quality stuff out there to suit each individual's personal tastes. And that content doesn't have to be Irish made and it doesn't have to please advertisers either.

That's good news for radio in the long run because eventually the market will force a move away from middle-of-the-road, play-not-to-lose radio and instead ensure that the people calling the shots have the balls to play-to-win and produce quality programming led by talented, creative individuals. Right now, the public are moving away from safe and (relatively) easy radio. PDs would want to get with the programme fast because the technological era doesn't wait around for people to catch up, either be clever enough to spot where the wind is blowing or risk waking up one day with the bottom dropped out of your product. It's really as simple as that.

Mediajunkie

Considering the amount of advertising done by 98fm the results were dire

Deedsie

Any word on off the ball? Up/down or same as last book?

IRE60

Off the ball:

41 2014Q1
43 2013Q4
43 2103Q1

Book on book and year on year (hat tip to RadioAnalyst!)

blue4ever

As the viewers here like all things radio, I found these yesterday - the RAJAR data for the UK (radio listeners) - the PDF rajar_may_14.pdf is interesting in that it shows the online/DAB listening etc. The other pdf simply lists the reach of the main stations National and London.

C