When can I say I have an edge?

mayoman1973

Folks, After a lot of messing about and dabbling in different sports I have finally settled on tennis as the sport to make my fortune. Basically looking at tips across different sites I decide if a bet has value or not and only place my bet if there is at least 10 - 20% value in the bet. My knowledge of tennis is ZERO!!!! Most of my bets are at odds of < 2.0 I'm finding an average of 10 bets per day and placing 2% of my bank on each one. So on average I'm putting 20% of my bank on each day. What I am amazed at right now is after 26 days, 256 bets my bank has grown from £103 to £219, All but one day ( -£1.20 ) were in profit. At what stage would you say, hmmm maybe you are onto something there Ted ! I know that upping that stakes to multiples of my current stakes would make things a bit more sticky but bank is going in the right direction. Also, there is plenty of liquidity on betfair ( >£10,000 ) on almost all the games I bet on so getting matched at bigger stakes would not be a problem. I guess my question is what sort of sample size should you use before deciding if there is merit in something and that its not just a lucky streak?

DB74

Why do you bet?

Not trying to be funny but just wondering what your motive behind it is. From a lot of your posts you seem to be searching for the "Holy Grail" system, irrespective of what sport it is in

If you are going to bet regularly then the first thing I would recommend is to bet on a sport that you enjoy. Whether you are planning on being a recreational punter or taking a more professional approach, it makes the slog of research a hell of a lot easier if you actually like the sport that you are betting on

Believe me it is a long and often boring road if you are planning on making your fortune from betting.

petes

DB74 wrote: »

Why do you bet?

What's that got to do with the question?

DB74

petes wrote: »

What's that got to do with the question?

Nothing really, just throwing it out there.

My edited post crossed with yours there,my original was unintentionally blunt

Austria!

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Basically looking at tips across different sites I decide if a bet has value or not and only place my bet if there is at least 10 - 20% value in the bet.

Are you saying there's an arb of 10-20% or that price offered by one bookie is 10-20% out of line with all the others?

paulo6891

DB74 wrote: »

Why do you bet?

Not trying to be funny but just wondering what your motive behind it is. From a lot of your posts you seem to be searching for the "Holy Grail" system, irrespective of what sport it is in

If you are going to bet regularly then the first thing I would recommend is to bet on a sport that you enjoy. Whether you are planning on being a recreational punter or taking a more professional approach, it makes the slog of research a hell of a lot easier if you actually like the sport that you are betting on

Believe me it is a long and often boring road if you are planning on making your fortune from betting.

If you are trying to win money, you should not bet on sports that you enjoy - that way it becomes recreational.

DB74

paulo6891 wrote: »

If you are trying to win money, you should not bet on sports that you enjoy - that way it becomes recreational.

If you are disciplined it doesn't matter what sport you bet on

mayoman1973

@Austria, I mean looking at different sites and their tipping records and who they actually tip I decide if a bet might have value in it. Say 3 out of 4 go for Player A I might say that Player would be a value bet if I can get them any better than say 1.5. Still in profit and the bet count is over 400 now. As for betting on sports that I like, ie Football, my profit has got a big fat minus in front of it mainly due to my misguided opinion of what I think I understand about football.
Tennis on the other hand, I know nothing about but I defo see a trend in going for outsiders in the qualifier, earlier rounds based on tipsters opinions, favs in the latter stages and then no betting at all in semis, finals.

paulo6891

DB74 wrote: »

If you are disciplined it doesn't matter what sport you bet on

If you are disciplined, you don't look to have a good time when researching.

paulo6891

mayoman1973 wrote: »

@Austria, I mean looking at different sites and their tipping records and who they actually tip I decide if a bet might have value in it. Say 3 out of 4 go for Player A I might say that Player would be a value bet if I can get them any better than say 1.5. Still in profit and the bet count is over 400 now. As for betting on sports that I like, ie Football, my profit has got a big fat minus in front of it mainly due to my misguided opinion of what I think I understand about football.
Tennis on the other hand, I know nothing about but I defo see a trend in going for outsiders in the qualifier, earlier rounds based on tipsters opinions, favs in the latter stages and then no betting at all in semis, finals.

If 3 out of 4 tipsters say player A is going to win, how do you assign your probabilities? Or, in other words, how do you mathematically calculate your edge?

mayoman1973

If 3 out of 4 or all 4 go for the same player, I would give this a probability of 70 - 80% so any odds that are 1.5 or greater represent value for me. Any games where the tipsters go for the outsider get closer attention. These games have proved most profitable but as the sample count for these games is low it will need more time.

paulo6891

There is a gargantuan difference in betting terms between 70 and 80%. There must be some logic behind;

-Where this 70-80% comes from
-how to pick this number between 70 and 80.

ragnarl

You don't have an edge at all and are going about it entirely the wrong way.