No Withdrawals Allowed

The One Who Knocks

Might as well start one now.

Up €27 this year from horse racing, so banked €13.50 (To ensure that no matter what happens I'll always be up something as I do not intend on betting any more of my own money)

That leaves €13.50 to play with for football betting.

My strategy is to stick to the safest bets, maybe a few doubles or trebles. Planning on putting all the winnings from the previous bet onto the next.

Here's the catch, I'm not allowing myself to bank anything this year. So I'm either going to lose everything, or start 2015 with a nice sum of money. If I get to a comfortable amount I may just leave it in the paddy power account till next year but it's unlikely.

Okay so first bet was 13.50 on utd vs norwich, that returned 18.90.

I've placed the 18.90 on a treble:


This is my most important & riskiest bet so far(2.50). If it pays off, it means I'll make €15.77 on my next 1.33 bet.

The plan is to just keep placing bets on the safest matches, but going all in with the winnings from the previous week.

That might sound stupid when I start getting to over €100-€200+ stage. However, because I'm already permanently up this year, and playing on winnings I don't care.

I prefer not to think of it as money, it was never mine in the first place, so even if I do lose it (and I probably will) it still doesn't cost me anything. This is essentially just a game from here on out.

It makes sense (to me at least) to place large amounts on safer low odds bets, than small amounts on riskier bets when the amount placed doesn't come out of your pocket.

I'll keep yous posted

The One Who Knocks

Things are looking good.

Liverpool didn't score against Chelsea so that means City have a great shot and should be fairly motivated.

Celtic winning 2-0 at half time,

Arsenal tomorrow should be a handy win too.

The One Who Knocks

Celtic won 6-0
Man City won 2-0

All that's left is Arsenal, but that's safe enough.

Returns €47.32 which I will be placing on Utd against Sunderland on Saturday at 1.33 which will return €63.09! (An extra €15.77)

DominicKid

I believe when the club football season is over, winnings will be harder? epl, championship, la liga, seria a, ligue 1

The One Who Knocks

DominicKid wrote: »

I believe when the club football season is over, winnings will be harder? epl, championship, la liga, seria a, ligue 1

Yeah that's true, premiership is probably the most predictable. After this treble I'll be picking one bet a week that I feel is the safest because it will still have a nice return. I'll admit, I don't know much about about football but if the odds are 1.5 or less, experts are calling a 4-0 win and it's a home game then I don't see why not


Edit: Here's my projections for the next 17 games at 1.33 odds.

63.09
84.11
112.14
149.51
199.34
265.78
354.37
472.49
629.98
839.97
1119.95
1493.26
1991.01
2654.67
3539.55
4719.39
6292.51

I'd say if I got to the 6k stage I'd leave 3k untouched in my PP account until I double the other half again,.. as much as I'd like to, I don't think I'd have the balls to bet 6 grand on a match. At the very least, I'd have to start saving 20% of profits. Either that or pick my games VERY carefully, one every few weeks.

I think the strategy I'm most likely employ is as soon as I get to €150, never bet any higher. That means I'd make €50 profit per game, and save another €150 every 3 bets.

bgrove

Jesus...how did no one else think of this?....(tongue in cheek). Did you factor in draws at all.

The One Who Knocks

bgrove wrote: »

Jesus...how did no one else think of this?....(tongue in cheek). Did you factor in draws at all.

Yes?

Fair enough the treble was risky, but I'm picking safe bets from here on out.

You're telling me you think Utd will draw with Sunderland?


In the premier league, favourite teams with odds of 1.20 or less win 89% of the time. 1.33 is my new limit and it's a little higher than 1.20 but you can still expect a 85% win rate.

That means that I'm bound to get a loss eventually, however if I chose my games wisely I can avoid it.

On top of that, I've decided to make €150 my max bet. So every 3 bets I've made my money back.

If I'm only losing every 1 - 2 in 10 bets and making my money back in every 3 in 10 I think I can do fairly well. I'm not saying it's foolproof, but I'm no longer playing with my own money, so why shouldn't I give it a go?

bgrove

Liverpool draw no bet were probably close to 1.2 today. You're prob correct to say they more often than not come in.

The One Who Knocks

bgrove wrote: »

Liverpool draw no bet were probably close to 1.2 today. You're prob correct to say they more often than not come in.

Nope they were 1.66 (1.77 PaddyPower)

But even if they were, that's a good example of why you can't rely on odds alone either. Chelsea really needed that win, both teams are good, and some experts said it could go either way.

Compare that to a game like Utd vs Norwich or Sunderland where one team is at the top of the table and the other is way down and its a lot safer.

I think patience is key when it comes to this. Some weeks there might not be any teams that I like, it really depends.

DominicKid

I'd be well excited to follow this type of strategy to earn a steady income, but as the season comes to an end, i have no interest, however this is a very good idea! GL!

The One Who Knocks

DominicKid wrote: »

I'd be well excited to follow this type of strategy to earn a steady income, but as the season comes to an end, i have no interest, however this is a very good idea! GL!

Thanks, yeah I started a little late!

€47.32 back so here's what I'm looking at for the weekend:



Utd's the riskiest out of all them but I'd say they're out to prove a point.

If I get the €120 a 1.33 bet will return €159 which means I can start banking (everything over 150)

I'll have to keep a close eye on predictions for this week, because a 5 fold is always gonna be a big risk, but I want to hit that €150 threshold before the end of the season.

The One Who Knocks

Stuck a euro on real madrid at 4/1 because I could resist the odds.
Up to €52 and also got a €20 free bet from PaddyPower which apparently I was meant to get when I signed up.

Put a €1 treble on Valencia, Juventus & Chelsea at 8/1 odds just in case.

Even if it loses €71 will still return €177 - €20 on the 5 fold.

I'm still a bit iffy about Atletico vs Levante though, they're on a streak now but it's an away game and Levante have a good home record.
If I took them off It'd still return €141 - €20 which I'd still be very happy with.

I'll have to pay close attention to the games this week.

The One Who Knocks

I've decided to do this:



I'll either get €130, €100, or €0 back.

If it pays off, great. If not, well I've had fun.

This will be my last accumulator if it does pay off, as I'll be making between €33 - €40 profit on my next 1.33 bet.

The One Who Knocks

The One Who Knocks wrote: »

I've decided to do this:



I'll either get €130, €100, or €0 back.

If it pays off, great. If not, well I've had fun.

This will be my last accumulator if it does pay off, as I'll be making between €33 - €40 profit on my next 1.33 bet.

Well, it's all over for me. To tell you the truth, I don't really mind. It's been a great learning experience, and at the end of the day I'm still up €13.50.

I'm going to be ready for next season, and start with a tenner and do the same thing again, except with a few changes.

1. Never bet on the team you support. I should never have bet on utd, but I just wanted them to win. If you think about it, they were playing bad all season and having one victory last week doesn't make it a safe bet the next week. You can't let emotion get in the way.

2. Never bet on a league you don't follow. To tell you the truth, I just saw the word "Barcelona" and the nice low odds and added them to the accumulator without a second thought. I should have stuck to the premier league or at least do a bit of research.

3. Never do any more than a treble. If something can go wrong, it will go wrong. Even if your teams are great, probability wise it's difficult to predict any more than that. It's important not to get greedy.

4. Never go all in. I started late in the season and so wanted to get to my banking limit as soon as possible. Big mistake, you need to be patient. From now on I'll be saving 50 percent of the returns until I have at least 150 banked, then I can afford to bet another 150.

Anyway yeah, lesson learned (the hard way) but I had a lot of fun and I'm excited for next season.

If anyone has been following me I hope you'll take my above advice on board.

Thank you all,