Cuts, Buffers & Plus 1's

PARlance

So Bennys post below got me thinking about something that I've thought about before but never really looked at the numbers:
That being, what is the distribution between Cuts, Buffers & Plus 1s

Benny Cake wrote: »

My understanding is that a category 3 golfer, properly handicapped, should score in the buffer zone 33% of the time. Hence you are cut by 0.3 and go out by .1 to reflect this anomaly...

I've had a look at it, and I've thrown together a few examples:
For these examples, I've had to base it on a "Mr. Static" as a base point.
Mr Static is a guy would has put all the energy he could into the game years ago or is continuing to put in the effort... but has just "found his level" or plateaued as such. i.e There is no HC change from year to year now.

Not a point many golfers want to get to, there's always the dream that we'll make the seniors tour

But for the purpose of this, I had to to look at a "Mr Static" example as a base and take it from there.
I've taken 4 of them to represent the 4 different Categories.
Mr Static in each case is someone that has been floating around the same HC for some time, and he's my guess at what the breakdown would be.

Assumptions:
- 20 Rounds
- CSS is always 36
- Each Cut is an average ND of +2 for each Cat
- Each Plus 1 is ND -2
- Mr Static is just as likely to have a good day (buffer or cut) as a bad day (plus 1s)... so there's a near 50/50 split between the good and the bad.
- Obviously based only on full counting comps

Well...what can I say, I like myself a bit of messing on excel.... how sad



There's a big * over beside the average scores, that is the average score based on a golfer already in that category.... I ain't dropping to a Hc of 5 if I average 35 points

Any thoughts on it?
I know there's no such thing as the average golfer, or even a static golfer, and even fairly "static" golfers will vary in their distributions... all I know is that in each of these examples, the HC isn't changing in the slightest.
I think the splits between Cuts, Buffers and Plus 1s seem fairly reasonable to use as a base?

ForeRight

Lance mate!!!!!!!


Have a beer.

PARlance

ForeRight wrote: »

Lance mate!!!!!!!


Have a beer.

We've got visitors, and I'm "working" on the laptop in the kitchen on something very important so I have to miss out on all the chit chat

Always meant to have a look at this, quite sad really

Might help some of us from busting our own chops as we tend to do.
If you had told me that I just need to get 38 points more than once in 10 rounds to be more than likely on a downward trend then I'd have been surprised.

Beer me