Government after the next general election ?

Jason_

who do you think will be in government after the next general election ? I am certain it will be a much smaller FG/Labour held together by parish pump independents, Noel Grealish Michael Healy Rea etc.

comongethappy

Jason_ wrote: »

who do you think will be in government after the next general election ? I am certain it will be a much smaller FG/Labour held together by parish pump independents, Noel Grealish Michael Healy Rea etc.

You are probably right.

gozunda

Whoever the next bunch of clowns are - they can't be much worse than the present lot....hang on that's what was said about the last lot...

Marhay70

Much as I dread the prospect, I reckon SF will be in the mix too. They'll never have a better chance after the lying, cheating, self serving performances of the last two governments and their brand of populism is just right for the times.

DazMarz

Honestly? Who knows. A week is a long time in politics, so 2 years (give or take) is a lifetime.

It could be, as mentioned, FG/Lab held together with Independents.

It could be FG/FF held together with Indos.

It could be FF/SF. It could be FF/SF/Lab. It could be FG/FF/SF with Indos.

It could be anything. If current polling holds up, no party will have enough to get anywhere near a majority, and even two parties might not have enough. With FF and FG both on approx. 25%, SF on 22%, Indos on ca. 20% and all others including Labour making up the rest, it is too close to call right now.

Who knows what the future holds. Another major brain fart similar to the Garda scandal or the Charity/PAC scandal will severely damage the government further and lead to a slump in FG's support. FG will maintain support in their key areas, but I would venture that they will lose a good whack of seats in the next General Election; likely their losses will be FF's, SF's and Indo's gains. Enda Kenny's leadership is a huge factor; he is weak, ineffectual and refuses to openly debate topics sometimes. He seems in the mould of a Jimmy Carter; with good intentions, but doesn't have the stomach for the job. A man too cowardly to kill his own meat, but who so loves the smell of a barbecue...

FF are not capitalising on this, as they cannot; if FF rear their heads and rattle their sabre a bit too much, they will be severely reminded that they are largely the ones responsible for this current mess and will also slump. They needed FG's slump to be enough to see them get a surge of support, but it is not happening. They are stagnating in the low-to-mid-20's and show no real signs of increasing. They are known to have brought this down upon us, really and truly. Unlike in the 70's/80's, the collective Irish memory is not so short this time. I have no doubt that in the future, FF will be back. But not for a while yet. They still must shoulder much of the blame, and the voter will not fail to remind them of what they did and the mess they oversaw.

SF are in a similar spot in terms of stagnating in the polls, instead of growing. If it were not for their baggage and past (which, let's be honest here, is the REAL reason why more people are not supporting them, despite all else), they would be a lot more popular. As it stands, Adams and McGuinness are standing in their way. Once the elements of the past are consigned to history, they could see a new rise in popularity. As it is, they will not get much further than 25% or so. Which, in fairness to them, is a remarkable growth in the past few years and puts them on a par with the two traditionally largest parties in the country. I have slowly been gaining a cautious "respect" (not support; I would not support SF at all) for SF over the past while. They really seem to be maturing rapidly. But they have an awful long way to go to be properly mature and not just populist for me.

Labour... where to begin. Unlike FG, they betrayed their core supporters (the left-leaning, working classes; the people they are SUPPOSED to champion). FG's core are, traditionally, the more conservative minded, richer, farmers and so on. FG did nothing to betray THEIR core support. Hence why they are holding steady-ish. Labour, however... I grew up in a town where Labour were always maintained a very strong traditional support. Incredibly strong. Now, people I know who would have voted for Labour from time immemorial are turning their backs. They feel betrayed and let down and are responding by turning in increasing numbers to either Independents or Sinn Féin. Labour will never truly die (like the PD's and to an extent the Greens), but they will struggle to get above 10-13% for a long, long time. They are currently in single digits. The radical, champagne socialists from Democratic-Left/Socialist Workers/etc. who got co-opted into the party have secured leadership positions and have destroyed the party. Eamon Gilmore is absolutely despised amongst the "real" Labour supporters I know; the real man on the street. Gilmore is so out of touch with the core of Labour, it is frightening.

As for the rest... who knows. The like of PBP, Socialists, Eirigí, etc. Will make minor, 1 or 2 seat gains, most likely in Dublin, maybe. But overall will be too extreme for most. Too extreme left or too extreme Republican. They will not make a major impact. The same goes for Independents. At a local level, independents are fine. But at a national level, they are largely ineffectual. The current anger at the parties is why independents did so well. I cannot see them doing as well in 2016 as they did in 2011.

It always struck me as odd in this country, a country that was always fairly conservative and Catholic and so on, that there was never a truly "far-right" (well, further-right, really) party. We have far-left parties in Sinn Féin, PBP, Socialist Party, Eirigí, etc. But apart from the abortive Libertas, there has never been a real far-right, conservative party here. I'm not advocating one, god no. I'd be a bit of a leftie so I'd have no love for right-wing politics at all. But it always just struck me as a bit of an anomaly that there was no "Conservative Party Of Ireland" or something similar. Will the schism from FG lead to something like this? How well would they do at the polls?

New parties could be formed, old parties folded. The past forgotten, the civil war buried and new allegiances formed. Whatever else happens... it will be one of the most interesting General Elections in living memory. 2011 wasn't interesting; everyone knew exactly what would happen. The natural alternative to FF (since time immemorial it has nearly always been FG or some derivative thereof) was always going to triumph there. Probably bringing with it the traditional coalition partner as always (Labour). It was never going to be any different.

But in 2016, with the country split so many ways and parties all over the place... who knows what way it will all end when the curtain finally comes down...

Slydice

Where's all the SF bashing that usually comes up in these threads?

anyway...

According to this article url]http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0419/609879-opinion-poll/[/url two opinion polls have the running as:

Poll 1:
21 FG
20 FF
20 SF
09 Lab
30 Others

Don't knows: 24%

Poll 2:
29 FG
22 FF
20 SF
06 Lab
23 Others

Don't knows: 34%


I dunno... FG, FF and Lab seem to be fairly banker friendly throughout the mess that has been the property bubble, it's bursting and the aftermath and all three have been in power since year dot so I suppose they'll probably form a coalition if it stays like that.

IrishWelshCelt

I dont see how people can say the current government will be returned, they polled a combined 55% in 2011 and according to the above polls are on 30-35%. Labour are facing a wipeout outside Dublin.

Marhay70

I think people are underestimating SF. Labour have a huge amount of disaffected core supporters, these are unlikely to turn to FG and the other natural home of FF is not an option so I reckon they will turn to SF, as will those former FF supporters who have had their bellyful of the corruption in that party. I can see Labour losing all but a handful of seats, maybe even down to four. Gilmore and Quinn are probably the safest in S.E. Dublin where the Labour voters may not have the stomach for SF but would not be inclined to vote FF/FG. PBP are on an upward curve in these areas though and could possibly threaten even these two.
This government, despite its huge majority, does not have the option to turn to populist measures after, what they have said will be, the last austerity budget, so they will not be able to pull the "rabbit out of the hat" moves so beloved of FF. All they really have to point to, in terms of a success story, is the emergence from the bail out and this is to an electorate who have suffered huge hardship because of these measures.

renegademaster

Jason_ wrote: »

who do you think will be in government after the next general election ? I am certain it will be a much smaller FG/Labour held together by parish pump independents, Noel Grealish Michael Healy Rea etc.

it don't matter who gets into power next if the irish electorate go right back to sheep after they vote and don't do anything democratic again until sometime in 2021!! it won't matter who gets vioted in in 2021 either if the people go right back to sheep again until 2026.

Jonny7

renegademaster wrote: »

it don't matter who gets into power next if the irish electorate go right back to sheep after they vote and don't do anything democratic again until sometime in 2021!! it won't matter who gets vioted in in 2021 either if the people go right back to sheep again until 2026.

I'm a little confused here..

You seem very against the current government, fair enough, but then you don't seem to support any of the other parties.. ok..

Now you are speaking out against the democratic system as a whole because apparently Irish people are "sheep"..

If that's truly the case, then what distinguishes us from any other European countries in particular, or are they all the same as well?

Sierra Oscar

Marhay70 wrote: »

I think people are underestimating SF. Labour have a huge amount of disaffected core supporters, these are unlikely to turn to FG and the other natural home of FF is not an option so I reckon they will turn to SF, as will those former FF supporters who have had their bellyful of the corruption in that party.

I have been saying it ever since Labour went into government with FG, SF will replace the Labour party long term. I think they will fall back somewhat from the current highs they are on as the economy recovers (there is definitely a protest vote out there at the moment), but they are grabbing the traditional Labour support base and I don't see Labour being able to recover those voters too easily. Labour received just 4.6% of the vote in the Meath Easy by-election in 2013, so I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the latest opinion poll that has them on 6% if I was a Labour member.

People would want to get used to the concept of SF being big players in Irish politics, and Labour would want to start realising that they do face an existential crisis. FG & FF will soldier on long term.

Scotborn76

As I'm living in Cork most of the time there seems to be a strong showing for more independents down here.
The CPPC.
Not plugging them but they are taking up the slack as are others here that other main parties are losing ground in.
No idea who I'm going to vote for yet but won't be going for some of the top ones thats for sure.
probably independents or some small party down here.

Nationally I can see FF gaining. Not sure how I feel about this.
If this was a general election, I would guess independents would hold more sway in a Dail but as its the locals, a lot can change between now and 2016 when the general election could be coming.

hfallada

I cant see middle class educated people voting for SF. Its just too extreme for them, even if their policies are similar to that of other parties. Although the fact that Mary Lou is the face of SF in the Republic which help them with women.

Labour will be destroyed in the next election. They tended to appeal to lower middle class and working class people. The type of people who have been destroyed in the previous budgets. They tend to have a "strong view" on something and then do the opposite in the budget. They just appear to be all over the place and entering into the coalition was a poor choice.

FG have done quite well. They come across as strong and well lead. Although I think getting rid of Noonan will help their image(he seems kinda clueless at time). They will do quite well in the next election

FF have kept a low profile and have done well from it. They are showing they are the better party but not attacking other parties but keeping quite. They will still have a large majority who will never vote for them again. But FF could do well if they focus on the large middle class majority in Ireland who actually vote, want lower taxes and see Labour as attacking anyone who is high earner(anyone who went to college and has a decent job) and SF who is extreme

Independent are increasing in popularity. Although they are a bit of a mess. Most of them lack a profile and spending needed to be elected. A lot of them would never make it to a party. But they tend to focus on being different to the parties, without having the slightest idea on how they are different.

fiachraX

Really hope we don't end up with a clatter of independents but fear that we will. It'll turn the Dáil into an overgrown county council where all the focus will be on shortsighted parish pump policies.

Larbre34

FG/FF, lay your bets now.

Yes a few FF'ers have said over their dead body, but their recovery is currently rudderless so there are no sufficiently influential party men that cant be sidelined or ignored if the arithmetic is right.

Conan Doyle wrote for the mouth of Sherlock Holmes - "How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?, and this is the angle with which we must view the next Dáil.

Sinn Fein will make gains, Labour will be hit badly bar the Broughans and the Shortalls with Labour DNA, Fine Gael will suffer somewhat but not disastrously, Fianna Fail may regain some small number of seats in marginal constituencies and at the expense of FG, the other seats, perhaps 20 or less will distribute among the Reform alliance, PBPA, Socialists and single issue folk - health, water, bogs, pylons and burn the bondholders. So lets suggest something like this:

32nd Dáil - 2016 - to be formed of 158 seats.

FG - 55 (down 13)
FF - 25 (up 5)
SF - 27 (up 13)
Labour - 16 (down 18)
Reform Alliance - 8
PBPA - 4
Socialist - 3
Labour rebels - 4
Independents - left, right and single issue - 15
An Ceann Comhairle - 1

On those completely unscientific numbers, a FG/FG coalition would have a majority of 1 (2 if you include the casting vote of the chair), and would likely be more stable than any of the other permutations. A strong opposition led by SF would be interesting, certainly facing a government of the heritage of Sinn Féin pre-1926.....

Riskymove

Larbre34 wrote: »

A strong opposition led by SF would be interesting, certainly facing a government of the heritage of Sinn Féin pre-1926....

I'd be surprised to see a Dail of 158 with such a large left wing representation - 62 + in your figures against a background of a reduced Dail

especially as I think some of any FF gains will come from Labour vote in Dublin

a much reduced FG vote is also less likely to go to the left

Sierra Oscar

Larbre34 wrote: »

32nd Dáil - 2016 - to be formed of 158 seats.

FG - 55 (down 13)
FF - 25 (up 5)
SF - 27 (up 13)
Labour - 16 (down 18)
Reform Alliance - 8
PBPA - 4
Socialist - 3
Labour rebels - 4
Independents - left, right and single issue - 15
An Ceann Comhairle - 1

On those completely unscientific numbers, a FG/FG coalition would have a majority of 1 (2 if you include the casting vote of the chair), and would likely be more stable than any of the other permutations. A strong opposition led by SF would be interesting, certainly facing a government of the heritage of Sinn Féin pre-1926.....

First off, going on opinion polling trends to date your seat predictions are completely off. What are you basing them on?

And any coalition with only a one seat majority will merely last a few weeks. Never going to happen.

expectationlost

in terms of independents I know their poll figures are high (now includes the reform alliance ) but was not the last election a once in 90 years event? a large party cut to the bare bones.

the one chance for independents and left parties has come and gone.

golfball37

Civil War is over. Its time FF/FG formed the next government in the national interest seeing as they are so fond of telling us this is their motivation for wanting power. There is no difference between them and its about time they dumped the facade of being at odds over a 100 year old conflict.

If this happened we may actually see a normalisation of Politics here with two different blocks giving future electorates a real choice. SF will play the long game and remain in opposition after the next election no matter how well they do. I still maintain their poll numbers will not translate to actual votes however. Easy say on a phone you'll vote for them, I just don't believe they will get that vote out.

Labour are in for a big wipeout and its totally justified, not because of austerity which has been necessary but for lying and abandoning principles surrounding stroke politics which was their real appeal imo.

Idbatterim

I reckon by the time the GE comes around, unemployment will be down another few percent, there will be no austere budgets, income tax cuts etc... FG will probably receive a hike in support, throw some mud aka propaganda against FF (you dont need to be Goebbels to milk this) Labour will probably regain some support. I'm disappointed by the lack of reform and change, but FG are streets ahead of the rest of other parties IMO. Pity we will never know what happened if they had gotten a majority...

Civil War is over. Its time FF/FG formed the next government in the national interest seeing as they are so fond of telling us this is their motivation for wanting power. There is no difference between them and its about time they dumped the facade of being at odds over a 100 year old conflict.

FF are far more populist than FG. There is obviously a difference between them, I cant see myself every voting FF...

road_high

Agree. As one of the squeezed middle who pays for everything, the "anti-austerity" rent-a-mob are really really starting to grate on my ears. There was a €20 BILLION hole in the finances overseen by FF.
Unlike the majority of them, I actually work for a living like and appreciate the value of money and what a huge task has faced the current Lab/FG govt to close this gap. They have performed admirably given the size of the undertaking, I'm actually surprised at how quickly they have reduced the deficit and unemployment has fallen (and before everyones starts saying it's emigration, yes that has played a part, but the real employment figures i.e. those at work have risen strongly.

I really think basic economics need to be taught in primary school. There appears to be a huge swath of people out there with zero comprehension of where money comes from, and seem to think Ireland can/could go on indefintely borrowing as if from a bottomless pit. The only way we can get out of the mess is by reducing spending to match our tax take, then try grow the economy to reduce the welfare burden and hopefully reduce taxes thereafter to foster further growth in spending.
I don't see any alternative to the current crew, certainly not from FF (how could they after the lastr debacle), SF are sickeningly populist (prob worse than FF if that's possible). The rest is just a rump of left wingers that would gadly take more off the likes of me, no thanks.

Idbatterim

I strongly agree with your post, but it probably suits the government to have the people as ignorant as possible, kind of like how many of the Arab countries and China etc try to ban the internet and certain websites etc. Also regarding the anti austerity rent a mob, I take it that everyone has noticed, that those paying in the least or nothing, are shouting the loudest? Probably makes better tv to have the ignorant on... I have people refusing extra hours at E25-30 per hour, when they go over the marginal rate, cant say I blame them...

oscarBravo

Idbatterim wrote: »

I have people refusing extra hours at E25-30 per hour, when they go over the marginal rate, cant say I blame them...

Why can't you blame them? Sounds idiotic to me.

Idbatterim

Why can't you blame them? Sounds idiotic to me.

sometimes it can be an hour on its own, it would involve travelling both ways, preparation and often correction. Factor all of that in and the cost of travel and you could be working for less than minimum wage if paying the marginal rate. This could be for someone with a masters, years of experience etc... Those sitting voluntarily on the dole are on about a E5 per hour, no work or commuting related expenses. God knows what else they are "entitled" to indefinitely...

omicron

Idbatterim wrote: »

sometimes it can be an hour on its own, it would involve travelling both ways, preparation and often correction. Factor all of that in and the cost of travel and you could be working for less than minimum wage if paying the marginal rate. This could be for someone with a masters, years of experience etc... Those sitting voluntarily on the dole are on about a E5 per hour, no work or commuting related expenses. God knows what else they are "entitled" to indefinitely...

I don't think anyone would go for that at 0% tax if they weren't desperate for it.

IrishWelshCelt

Idbatterim wrote: »

I reckon by the time the GE comes around, unemployment will be down another few percent, there will be no austere budgets, income tax cuts etc... FG will probably receive a hike in support, throw some mud aka propaganda against FF (you dont need to be Goebbels to milk this) Labour will probably regain some support. I'm disappointed by the lack of reform and change, but FG are streets ahead of the rest of other parties IMO. Pity we will never know what happened if they had gotten a majority...

FF are far more populist than FG. There is obviously a difference between them, I cant see myself every voting FF...

We do, a Thatcher inspired neo-liberalist state.

renegademaster

road_high wrote: »

Agree. As one of the squeezed middle who pays for everything, the "anti-austerity" rent-a-mob are really really starting to grate on my ears. There was a €20 BILLION hole in the finances overseen by FF.
Unlike the majority of them, I actually work for a living like and appreciate the value of money and what a huge task has faced the current Lab/FG govt to close this gap. They have performed admirably given the size of the undertaking, I'm actually surprised at how quickly they have reduced the deficit and unemployment has fallen (and before everyones starts saying it's emigration, yes that has played a part, but the real employment figures i.e. those at work have risen strongly.

I really think basic economics need to be taught in primary school. There appears to be a huge swath of people out there with zero comprehension of where money comes from, and seem to think Ireland can/could go on indefintely borrowing as if from a bottomless pit. The only way we can get out of the mess is by reducing spending to match our tax take, then try grow the economy to reduce the welfare burden and hopefully reduce taxes thereafter to foster further growth in spending.
I don't see any alternative to the current crew, certainly not from FF (how could they after the lastr debacle), SF are sickeningly populist (prob worse than FF if that's possible). The rest is just a rump of left wingers that would gadly take more off the likes of me, no thanks.

your post makes my brain sore!!

Rheneas

id say it will a coalition of others and don't knows, sure they're on 54%

Agent Smith

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

And any coalition with only a one seat majority will merely last a few weeks. Never going to happen.

The Chief whip of that 1 seat Majority Goverment would have to glue them to the seats of the dail to make sure not to loose a vote :pac:

road_high

Rheneas wrote: »

id say it will a coalition of others and don't knows, sure they're on 54%

Doubt it. Never underestimate the power of party machines.
I sense a re-focusing of efforts on behalf of the government parties, and if the economic tide continues to lift I can see them getting back fairly easily.
Especially if they scan ease the tax burden on working peoplen as the are muttering now.
Can't see myself what these Independents have to offer bar oppose everything, time goes on others will likely realise that too.

Idbatterim

Doubt it. Never underestimate the power of party machines.
I sense a re-focusing of efforts on behalf of the government parties, and if the economic tide continues to lift I can see them getting back fairly easily.
Especially if they scan ease the tax burden on working people as the are muttering now.
Can't see myself what these Independents have to offer bar oppose everything, time goes on others will likely realise that too.

In some ways, it couldnt have worked out better for the coalition, the timing of the crash (they fact they werent in power) FF had already started on the austerity road, bank guarantee etc (they can say their hands were tied) and there was sufficient time for a recovery and growth to occur, before the next election in 2016...

Also I can see Labour and FG having a rebound in support, but unlike for Labour voters, who have somewhere to "go" where do the FG voters go?! There are no pd's...

Zubeneschamali

I think the govt. parties will get a kicking in the locals and Euros, but that when people have to think about who they want in government after the next General Election, the toxicity of FF and SF will be more of an issue.

road_high

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the govt. parties will get a kicking in the locals and Euros, but that when people have to think about who they want in government after the next General Election, the toxicity of FF and SF will be more of an issue.

I think so. They always like to give the govt parties a drumming.
But the question of a choice of who to run the country and provide stability is more measured I think. I don't think it will be a case of "all is forgiven" for FF. The reason simply being the sheer scale of the collapse and severity of the recession brought about under their term in government. They will forever be remembered for bringing in the IMF and the associated hardships of the past 5 years. This kind of legacy can't be willed away, however FF try to erase history.
It'll come down to money in people's back pockets too. With further stabilisiation in the economy and some growth, people will likely view SF/FF as an extremely risky choice.