Draft National Risk Assessment report warns on Scottish Independence

losthorizon

A Draft report for the government has warned that an Independent Scotland could be de-stabilizing for the North.

They also warn about the risks to Anglo-Irish relations if Britain leaves the EU.


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/scottish-referendum-could-lead-to-instability-in-the-north-says-report-1.1764446

Stavros Murphy

I thought Daft stuck to flogging houses and flats.

Kermit.de.frog

Personally I don't think it would make a blind bit of difference to Ireland at all.


And since I have not heard a single person mention Scottish independence to me ever I don't think very many in this country give two hoots about it to be perfectly honest.


The possibility the UK might leave the EU is far more important to us not only economically but also because it could conceivably lead to a visible land border on this island once again which i'm sure nobody wants to see.

darkpagandeath

How will this happen aren't the figures 2-1 like always for staying part of the UK ? There have been some movers to the independence camp but not that many

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

darkpagandeath wrote: »

How will this happen aren't the figures 2-1 like always for staying part of the UK ? There have been some movers to the independence camp but not that many

Opinion polls six days ago show 46% Yes 54% No. Close enough.

Riddle101

I always knew that Scottish Independence would be a complicated matter. I half suspect a civil war to erupt in Scotland if they ever did vote for independence, or maybe Scotland would have their own version of the troubles. Things seem to be starting up in Northern Ireland these days I here. Could Scottish Independence be the straw that breaks the camel's back up North?

As for Britain leaving the EU. I would imagine it would have an effect the whole EU and not just Ireland. I would think Britain would have the same status as Germany and France, and if either of those two countries left, it would have an impact on the EU.

darkpagandeath

Riddle101 wrote: »

I always knew that Scottish Independence would be a complicated matter. I half suspect a civil war to erupt in Scotland if they ever did vote for independence, or maybe Scotland would have their own version of the troubles. Things seem to be starting up in Northern Ireland these days I here. Could Scottish Independence be the straw that breaks the camel's back up North?

As for Britain leaving the EU. I would imagine it would have an effect the whole EU and not just Ireland. I would think Britain would have the same status as Germany and France, and if either of those two countries left, it would have an impact on the EU.

Are they not on track to become the largest economy in the EU Think it may have a bigger impact on the EU than even the EU think

oppenheimer1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Personally I don't think it would make a blind bit of difference to Ireland at all.


And since I have not heard a single person mention Scottish independence to me ever I don't think very many in this country give two hoots about it to be perfectly honest.


The possibility the UK might leave the EU is far more important to us not only economically but also because it could conceivably lead to a visible land border on this island once again which i'm sure nobody wants to see.

If Scotland left the UK we would have a low corporate tax, English speaking, member of the EU neighbour. There is certainly an economic risk associated with that.


There is also the political risk that it could destabilise the North since most of the unionists identify with Scotland rather than England.

My name is URL

I don't really understand why our lot are having highly expensive risk assessments drawn up over this stuff. None of it will influence or have any bearing on whether Scots vote for independence, or whether Brits vote to leave the EU.. so why bother?

A lot of what's in it seems to be very basic common sense stuff anyway. I mean it doesn't take a genius to know that a Scottish vote for independence would have some affect in the North =/

darkpagandeath

My name is URL wrote: »

I don't really understand why our lot are having highly expensive risk assessments drawn up over this stuff. None of it will influence or have any bearing on whether Scots vote for independence, or whether Brits vote to leave the EU.. so why bother?

A lot of what's in it seems to be very basic common sense stuff anyway. I mean it doesn't take a genius to know that a Scottish vote for independence would have some affect in the North =/

Next you will be saying we don't need to spend €50 million on consultants for Irish water..... :pac:

AllGunsBlazing

Vague to say the least. Money well spent imo.

c_man

I really don't see them voting for independence tbh.

BarryLyndon

I assume the people complaining about assessing economic and political risks on the horizon were stum about the Government's role when the banks went t*ts up.

Kermit.de.frog

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

If Scotland left the UK we would have a low corporate tax, English speaking, member of the EU neighbour.

Only number 2 is a certainty there. I don't see them voting for independence anyway. It appears to me Scotland is sufficiently infiltrated by British culture, identity and economic necessity after generations of peaceful alliance that they won't take the risk.

debabyjesus

Brenda Prickly Magician wrote: »

Opinion polls six days ago show 46% Yes 54% No. Close enough.

They should have braveheart on the tv the night before the vote. Flower of Scotland on loop on every radio station. That might swing it.

Oh flower offf scottlannnnd.... Infectious.

Capt'n Midnight

losthorizon wrote: »

A Draft report for the government has warned that an Independent Scotland could be de-stabilizing for the North.

Now there's an idea.

Give Norn Iron to Scotland

Ourselves and England would be glad to see the back of them.
Nationalists will be glad to be out of the UK
Ulster Scots will be glad to be back with their kin



Make everybody happy, except the Scots

Stavros Murphy

If the Unionist went across to Scotland, sure they'd be kilted. And sporranned.

wretcheddomain

losthorizon wrote: »

A Draft report for the government has warned that an Independent Scotland could be de-stabilizing for the North.

They also warn about the risks to Anglo-Irish relations if Britain leaves the EU.

And what's your opinion OP?

losthorizon

wretcheddomain wrote: »

And what's your opinion OP?

Why thanks for asking!

Personally I dont think Scottish independence would have any impact on us. In fact, if anything it might calm the situation down in NI.

THe more important issue would be the UK leaving the EU imo. They are our biggest trading partner. if they left it would be a big blow. It never ceases to amaze me how the UK leaves the running of the EU effectively to France and Germany.

How do you see things - would you agree with that?

Stavros Murphy

darkpagandeath wrote: »

Are they not on track to become the largest economy in the EU Think it may have a bigger impact on the EU than even the EU think

Is that statistic not based on a large chunk of world finance being funnelled through the London Financial sector? Rather than any other intrinsic output or productivity?

Guy:Incognito

c_man wrote: »

I really don't see them voting for independence tbh.

Like a lot of things of this nature, complacency could be the biggest enemy of the majority. I'd say a the number that would vote to stay part of the UK but go with "ah sure we have much bigger numbers on our side so my one vote wont be missed" dwarves the numbers with a similar attitude on the other side.

losthorizon

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Like a lot of things of this nature, complacency could be the biggest enemy of the majority. I'd say a the number that would vote to stay part of the UK but go with "ah sure we have much bigger numbers on our side so my one vote wont be missed" dwarves the numbers with a similar attitude on the other side.

You mean a bit like the way our referendums go? :eek:

LordSutch

c_man wrote: »

I really don't see them voting for independence tbh.

I agree, but sadly I suspect Salmond won't let it rest even when Scotland votes NO.

Expect years of unrest & uncertainty re Scotlands place in the UK, plus a push by the SNP for another referendum in the coming years.