Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

2:40 Ayr

I think there is a pretty big mistake in the prices here regarding Cotton Mill. I don’t think there is much between a lot of these behind the fav but he is here on probably the best terms only 1 lb. outside the handicap and I don’t really fancy the 2 that are on their proper mark, Court Minstrel or Flaxen Flare. Given that he clearly didn’t stay last time out at the festival, most of his other runs have been more or less to this mark this year. Anything resembling his second in the Betfair Hurdle behind My Tent or Yours would be good enough to at least place here, and I think 20/1 is far too big. A slight ease in the ground here will probably suit him. I can’t resist going with my favourite horse even if he stands seemingly little chance at the weights. Barizan can be hard to peg back if on form especially with only 10:04 on his back and the 50/1 with Paddy Power is still worth a min risk just in case.

2 Points EW Cotton Mill 20/1 Various
½ Point EW Barizan 50/1 Paddy Power

3:50 Ayr Scottish Grand National

Roberto Goldback looks to have been given a great chance here the way the weights have worked out. He has been running well enough this year, and really caught the eye last time out at the festival staying on for 3rd in the Kim Muir. Amazingly he is down another 2lbs for that run and I think nowadays he looks a dour stayer and 20/1 with 5 places looks a very decent bet . He should be suited by the decent enough ground, and with more than half the field out of the weights he looks a bargain at that price. I’m going with a gut feeling selection in Lie Forrit who has been steadily climbing the handicap in hurdles this year and won of a mark of 140 in his latest race last month. His 3rd in the Fixed Brush Hurdle is particularly strong form, and I just think if he can jump well at all here, he could get involved of his mark, even if he is 5lbs out of the handicap.

1 Point EW 20/1 Roberto Goldback 5places Betfred/Sky
1 Point EW 25/1 Lie Forrit 5 places Betright

3:30 Newbury

I’m not happy to be back looking at these big field flat handicaps, but I’ll have to get back into it sooner rather than later. Magic City could well get involved here as he is back to within 2lbs of his easy success at Goodwood, and looks too big a price at 33/1. I don’t think he will be too inconvenienced by the step up in trip and if he is ready to go that looks value. Ill be keeping stakes low on the flat for a while.

½ Point win 33/1 Various

UrbanSea

Took a chance on three tomorrow. Merry King in the Scottish GN, too bad to be true last time out in first time head gear. Ultimately consistent before that and caught the eye when staying on really strongly at Haydock two runs back, and could still be well handicapped on his second to the very well handicapped Houblon des Obeaux earlier on in the season. 22/1 with Betbright seems overpriced.

Flaxen Flare shouldn't be double the price of Montbazon in the CH. He has six lengths to make up on him but is half a stone better off, and Flaxen Flare has held his form extremely well in the top handicaps. His rating means he usually carries very heavy weights, but gets just 10-6 tomorrow. Should go well


Urban Moon the other at Navan in a trappy race. Has bumped into three proper group horses in his maidens, and the brother to Telescope should improve with the step up in trip and on softer ground back on turf. A rating of 77 seems lenient and he should go well.

hawkhead

1-30 Ayr.

Mubrook 16/1. Won this last year of a 5lb higher mark he hasn't done an awful lot since but the ground tomorrow should be perfect and hopefully he can bounce out in front and hold them all off again

Francie Barrett

Have Chillie Billie at 18/1 in the opener at Navan. 0 from 33 so far, but this is a low grade affair and there's no better apprentice who you could have on board.

Both Choice of Destiny (15/2) and Hustle Bustle (the hot favourite) were only beaten by 3/4 of a length from Desert Colours in the last month, so I am thinking the outsider looks to be a bit of value.

One Scoop Or Two in the following race at Wolverhampton also looks really well handicapped off its mark and while no price (13/8), I expect it to win today.

Last pick is Mendip Express in the Scottsh National. Drifted out to 14/1 so I have dipped in again.

rossom

hawkhead wrote: »

1-30 Ayr.

Mubrook 16/1. Won this last year of a 5lb higher mark he hasn't done an awful lot since but the ground tomorrow should be perfect and hopefully he can bounce out in front and hold them all off again

Blinkers restored too and money coming in the colours of Mrs Ellison. Top, top spot regardless of the outcome.

mike65

aidankkk wrote: »

3:30 Newbury

I’m not happy to be back looking at these big field flat handicaps, but I’ll have to get back into it sooner rather than later. Magic City could well get involved here as he is back to within 2lbs of his easy success at Goodwood, and looks too big a price at 33/1. I don’t think he will be too inconvenienced by the step up in trip and if he is ready to go that looks value. Ill be keeping stakes low on the flat for a while.

½ Point win 33/1 Various

Was just looking at him myself - prompted by Brocklebank from the Del Roy thread. 26s now.

rossom

In work now so can't check but in something like the last 4 years the first 4 home in the Spring Cup all ran at Doncaster two weeks prior.

newuser89

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Have Chillie Billie at 18/1 in the opener at Navan. 0 from 33 so far, but this is a low grade affair and there's no better apprentice who you could have on board.

Both Choice of Destiny (15/2) and Hustle Bustle (the hot favourite) were only beaten by 3/4 of a length from Desert Colours in the last month, so I am thinking the outsider looks to be a bit of value.

One Scoop Or Two in the following race at Wolverhampton also looks really well handicapped off its mark and while no price (13/8), I expect it to win today.

Last pick is Mendip Express in the Scottsh National. Drifted out to 14/1 so I have dipped in again.

I went for above the law in the opener at navan
He beat the current fav over the course last year giving a couple pounds and today there level.
Hasn't run on turf much either so may be improvement

redzerdrog

big bad lily in the first at navan

SM746

Horse that came into my tracker that has a chance - Thirsk 545 Meandmyshadow. Been backed in a bit and best priced 12/1 from 16/17s this morning. Racing of mark 10 pounds lower than her last win which came at the same track and although it was over 6f, I am hopeful that she can at least get me some EW money.

And I just noticed Thirsk 215 Klynch although not a great price at 5/2, is another that I fancy to take that race.

BorneTobyWilde

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Have Chillie Billie at 18/1 in the opener at Navan. 0 from 33 so far, but this is a low grade affair and there's no better apprentice who you could have on board.

Both Choice of Destiny (15/2) and Hustle Bustle (the hot favourite) were only beaten by 3/4 of a length from Desert Colours in the last month, so I am thinking the outsider looks to be a bit of value.

One Scoop Or Two in the following race at Wolverhampton also looks really well handicapped off its mark and while no price (13/8), I expect it to win today.

Last pick is Mendip Express in the Scottsh National. Drifted out to 14/1 so I have dipped in again.

Pretty sure he won !!

BorneTobyWilde

He did win. I logged on two mins ago,saw your tip. I logged in to paddy power, it was past 2.00 but they were late off so I got bet on

bumper234

Chiilli billie first @ 12/1 nice touch op.

rossom

Nice shout Francie!

Given the way he battled, fairly shocked that's his first win at the 34th attempt!

newuser89

Battler of the boyne is a horse that doesn't like to get in front as well
He got there and chillie got back up

Shane732

Slightly stunned by that to be honest. Really expected MTOY to be better than than.

ste2010

Didn't think MTOY would win today giving that weight away. I hope nobody lumped on. Flaxen flare must be being kept for Galway.

jimjamcos

Some animal, that!

UrbanSea

ste2010 wrote: »

Didn't think MTOY would win today giving that weight away. I hope nobody lumped on. Flaxen flare must be being kept for Galway.

Thought Davy was very easy on him didnt go for him at all after two out despite thinking he might have got placed. Thought I might have been viewing through my pocket

TheMilkyPirate

Kingman looks a serious horse, V.Impressive

Goldcupfav

lol Heffernan's "ride" on Terrific there at Navan...

ste2010

Goldcupfav wrote: »

lol Heffernan's "ride" on Terrific there at Navan...

Thought he took a few pulls early on alright

Whosthis

I have Norse Blues EW in the next at Thirsk.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

In work now so can't check but in something like the last 4 years the first 4 home in the Spring Cup all ran at Doncaster two weeks prior.

First 4 home all fit again. 3 at Donny and one at Wolves

UrbanSea

Happy enough with my place on Merry King. I have Urban Moon here but they are seriously hammering into O'Briens

BorneTobyWilde

UrbanSea wrote: »

Happy enough with my place on Merry King. I have Urban Moon here but they are seriously hammering into O'Briens

WINNER. I was on it !
Great tip, fought hard to hold on

rossom

One of my favourites Mubtadi runs in the last at Newbury and although I think he's going to keep on progressing this season I won't be backing him today as I think the cut in the ground will be very much against him.

BorneTobyWilde

Miss Mitigate 20-1 ew 4.45 Navan
Horse is race fit,which should give it an advantage over most of field. Ran some good races at Dundalk . Can place here, with 4 places up for grabs

rossom

Mubtadi ran an utter stinker. Don't think he can do much more than walk on softish ground!

mdwexford

How in the name of fcuk are they ever going to settle MTOY.

Handicap, hood, earplugs, still just tanks along.

Throw him into the July Cup.

Thought AP rode him way too prominently today though, should have gotten a ride similar to the winner.
Price was also crazy for giving lumps of weight away.

jimjamcos

mdwexford wrote: »

How in the name of fcuk are they ever going to settle MTOY.

Handicap, hood, earplugs, still just tanks along.

Throw him into the July Cup.

Thought AP rode him way too prominently today though, should have gotten a ride similar to the winner.
Price was also crazy for giving lumps of weight away.

A fence.

faoile@n

Could try a different jockey.

Won't happen but would love to see Geraghty or even Carberry given a chance.

mdwexford

More chance of seeing a fence than a new jockey anyway but I agree Barry would be interesting on him.

Ah maybe another summer in the field will calm him down.