Mercedes the new Brawn

MS.ing

alot of inferesting parallels with how Brawn exploded on the scene and Mercedes are now doing the same.

- Ross Brawn brought out of retirement to join Honda/Brawn

- Blown diffuser: he spearheads development causeing everyone to be on the backfoot for a season

(I think there were regulation changes around at least a season before this?which he had in mind when deciding where to put his eggs)

Brawn car dominates the season as Mercedes will now go on to do. +2 seconds ahead of everyone else (they were even 3 seconds perlap faster than everyone else after the safety car in Bahrain, building a huge 14 sec gap in 5 laps!!!

Brawn had a hugely dominant season with both drivers (just like merc now are and will be) streets ahead of everyone else and completely dominating the seaso early on before they reduced the development and 'let' the others catch them while they focused on the 2014 car.)

Red Bull caught up and dominated (Brawn no doubt letting them, knowing because they knew huge regulation changes were afoot so Ross in ' my work here is done' type behaviour 'retires' from F1, but this is what I think happened, he led the development programme behind the scenes of Brawn (soon to be Merc )and started developing the car of this year 2014 that will turn out to be as utterly dominant as the Brawn car was in its first season.

Its history repeating itself, with Ross slinking off again to spearhead the next development programme and 'retiring' like he did at Brawn. (not retiring at all!)
the othe guys are constantly going to be on the backfoot now at least a development cycle behind unless they cut their losses and start developing their future cars (which is probably what williams realised and adapted for, they were also strong after the last set of big reg changes like brawn (but a few leagues below but punching above their weight by being clever like Brawn did)

No doubt there are going to be more regulation changes in the near future which he is going to be stealing a march on by stepping away as TP and putting everything into build a new merc for the next round of regulation changes to come.

so one of two future possibilities:

Mercedes will dominate the season (a given) and concentrate more development on next years car thus allowing this years car be caught by season end but will probably still win (same pattern as Brawn car did) with REd Bull and Ferrari neglecting next years car in favour of trying to catch Mercedes this season and in doing so will constantly be behind Mercedes until they play smart longer term, like way williams do (with a fraction of the budget!)

or Merc will keep going and dominate the next few years the way red bull were 'allowed' to do for the last 4+ years.

Myrddin

Brawn didn't dominate the 09 season though, they did the start of it, but the other teams caught up pretty quickly. Jenson was able to score consistently to protect his lead.

Merc have an advantage that isn't really something as easy to duplicate as an aero part either, even then, it's not just the engine package alone that's winning for them...I don't think it's really comparable with the Brawn situation

SuperTortoise

They only dominated for the first half of the season, towards the end of that season there were probably two other teams that were as strong if not stronger as Brawn, they just built up enough of a buffer at that stage.
Clearly someone at mercedes was thinking outside the box when designing the new car, and good luck to them, they've earned their dominance, the other teams will catch up but it may take the most of this season for them to do so, i'd expect 2015 to be more competitive.

Mind you, this weekends racing was absolutely brilliant, if it stays at that level of exitement i don't mind one team running away with it!

MS.ing

you have both seemed to have missed the points I was making (which to be fair I knew some would) and if you read my whole post you will see that I never said they dominated, I said they dominated then backed off development and invariabely the others caught up.

They put development into future cars instead (well the majority of it)....and even teams. its a post about ross brawn and his influence over and the similarities between Honda/BrawnGp and Mercedes and how both rose to such domination. If my gut is right then willams have played the same game since 2006 say, put all eggs (most) in future cars to take full advantage of Regulation changes that they knew were coming and being a midfield team then (as was Honda --> Brawn Gp) forgot about the championship and trying to compete with teams of multiples of their resources by starting waaaay earlier while the top teams were in a development race to beat eachother in that current season.

It will be very interesting to see if williams are indeed back and if they can get enough momentum and resources to keep their newfound resurgence they have 'suddenly' found

I think Ferrari decided to go the same route too, playshort to medium term to maximise top positions between the 2 big regulation changes (pre BrawnGp and pre Mercedes)

Redbull have done similar but threw everything at that period (and got 4 WC out of it) ferrari seem to have fallen between stools they were sort of strong but not dominant and now the dust has settled they are not one of the top teams either. I would say Adrien newey has been let go to RB and would not be too surprised to see a resurgenge of Mclaren again (if my theory is right and they take him back after he was 'on loan' to RB. think about it, RB were nowhere without newey and since then have cashed in on the big old teams of F1 backing off and looking to the future.

greedygoblin

One similarity between this year's Merc and the Brawn of 2009 is huge amounts of money were thrown at both. In the case of the Brawn GP1, Honda had pulled the plug on the project but continued to fund the development of the car to increase the chances of a buyer coming in to save several hundred jobs. This is where Ross Brawn duly obliged. It must be remembered that in the previous couple of seasons Honda had spent HUGE amounts of money for comparitively little success. This lack of success is what ultimately led to their withdrawal from the sport.

Ross Brawn's role in the teams success, while crucial (he along with the other investors saved the team from going bust after all) is often overstated. Brawn no longer really had a role in the technical development of the car. He was the owner/manager of the team. Any technical innovations (the double diffuser) would not have been his idea to begin with.

The fact that Brawn lost their competitive advantage midways through the season also was not by choice. Rather it was a simple case of economics. Honda's money was now gone, so the team had to scale back all areas of the team. Hundreds of employees were let go. Red Bull did not have this problem and is the reason why they managed to catch up to and eventually overtake the Brawn performace wise towards seasons end.

Now the only real parallel I can see with that seasons Brawn and this years Merc is money. Merc have thrown a huge amount of money at this years car. They've poached a lot of people from other teams over the last year or two.

So I think you are maybe over-analysing the similarities between Ross Brawns role at Honda/Brawn 2008/2009 and his role in Mercedes leading up to this season. No doubt he is a huge factor in where the team find themselves today. But it's also because huge sums of money have been spent to achieve that success.

Slutmonkey57b

How is Newey "on loan"?

Williams drove him away by not giving him a stake in the team or Patrick head's job. McLaren drove him away by not letting him race in his spare time and wasting his time with pointless "management" work.

Red Bull let him do what he likes, and he spends all his time doing what he's the master at with no interference. Why would he leave?

Zcott

Funny, I was thinking this the other day. If the pace of the Merc starts to tail off later in the year wait for them to get really good again around 2019...

More seriously, though, it was Ross Brawn who oversaw this year's car more than anyone else. He guided the ship through 2013 and 2014 is the result of his efforts to prioritise the 2014 car over the last few years. For him to be receiving no credit for this at all must be pretty annoying. F1 operates in the present but also at least a year in advance, and this is effectively Ross Brawn's last car. Mercedes were mad to move him out and they've lost one of their biggest assets. As good as Toto Wolff and Niki Lauda are, it'll take a year or two to see how they run a team.

greedygoblin

Merc have the resources though to keep developing their car throughout the season. Some of the other teams will close the gap I imagine, but not enough to overtake the Mercedes.

I agree with you though. I don't know why Merc didn't make more of an attempt to hold onto Brawn. When Hamilton and Rosberg come to fisticuffs is when his presence in the team will be sorely missed.

mickdw

There is no doubt this is Ross Brawns car.
I think anyone who is anyone in F1 knows the input he had there and to be fair Paddy Lowe did acknowledge that Ross had a major input into it after winning in Malaysia.

It is quite stunning to look at Brawns history.
Williams - success
Sportscars - success
Benetton - success
Ferrari - success
Brawn - success
Mercedes - success

All success within 3 to 4 years of going to any team.

Has he really retired or is he going to pop up with McLaren Honda?

I think Mercedes have made a huge mistake in pushing him out. Old head, knows what it takes in terms of organisation to win, knows how to deal with the FIA when things get sticky. Can handle drivers etc

Slutmonkey57b

Good point, it's going to be up to Nico to ensure that things don't get out of hand between the two drivers. Lowe doesn't have the authority, Wolff is still an industry newbie, and Lauda is a **** stirrer. Lewis is far too self absorbed to ever consider whether his actions are appropriate. Chopping across the front of Nico's car was unnecessary, stupid and prone to a bad outcome for both drivers and the team.

MS.ing

greedygoblin wrote: »

One similarity between this year's Merc and the Brawn of 2009 is huge amounts of money were thrown at both.

very true, I wasnt suggesting it was all Ross Brawn, afterall its development $$ that wins things but I appreciate it did come across like that

In the case of the Brawn GP1, Honda had pulled the plug on the project but continued to fund the development of the car to increase the chances of a buyer coming in to save several hundred jobs. This is where Ross Brawn duly obliged. It must be remembered that in the previous couple of seasons Honda had spent HUGE amounts of money for comparitively little success. This lack of success is what ultimately led to their withdrawal from the sport.

again agreed thats true.
Its truely amazing the plug was pulled on such a flagship potencially WC winning car, no accounting (heh) for CEOs of multinationals :rolleyes:

Ross Brawn's role in the teams success, while crucial (he along with the other investors saved the team from going bust after all) is often overstated. Brawn no longer really had a role in the technical development of the car. He was the owner/manager of the team. Any technical innovations (the double diffuser) would not have been his idea to begin with.

The fact that Brawn lost their competitive advantage midways through the season also was not by choice. Rather it was a simple case of economics. Honda's money was now gone, so the team had to scale back all areas of the team. Hundreds of employees were let go. Red Bull did not have this problem and is the reason why they managed to catch up to and eventually overtake the Brawn performace wise towards seasons end.

its all coming back to me now, I guess I saw a similarity and forgot the details for the way the season unfolded though I do remember them being slowly clawed back over the season and button still winning the WC (it was 6+ years ago afterall)

it was something which I was throwing out there and can now see (after you helped me with my memory) is adding 2 and 2 together and getting 5!

Now the only real parallel I can see with that seasons Brawn and this years Merc is money. Merc have thrown a huge amount of money at this years car. They've poached a lot of people from other teams over the last year or two.

So I think you are maybe over-analysing the similarities between Ross Brawns role at Honda/Brawn 2008/2009 and his role in Mercedes leading up to this season. No doubt he is a huge factor in where the team find themselves today. But it's also because huge sums of money have been spent to achieve that success.

I do too now!

cool, sounds like I forgot alot of things and just selectively saw the bits which backed the theory up despite knowing that it didnt really fit deep down.....hmm......

that and was throwing it out there for someone to fill in some of the memory blanks and to challenge the hypothesis.

result? Defeated!

thats that theory shot down

what about williams though, you think Im onto something there? makes sense a lot I think. I think they were bad couple years before 2008? and I seem to remember them being really good in melbourne and sepang but then dropped off as they didnt have the dev dollars to compete (in my head seem to remember it being the 2008 season when Brawn started off so dominant, but on reflectionand after reading your post I might have fudged that to fit with the theory! )

Zcott

I don't think he'll go to Williams. He's mentioned it in the past and always said no. Plus, that team seems to be on the way up with Pat Symonds. He's only been there since July last year and is a good guy to have around. No point in putting Ross Brawn in as well as or instead of Symonds. And I don't think they'd replace Claire Williams with Brawn.

greedygoblin

MS.ing wrote: »

result? Defeated!

thats that theory shot down

Having reread your first post I found myself agreeing with a lot of what you had to say. So I wouldn't say your theory is completely shot down.

Brawn was instrumental in the success of Brawn GP and his input to Mercedes should not be underestimated either despite what I said earlier about money. In his Benetton/Ferrari days I suppose he was always regarded as a master tactician. I think what came across most from his Brawn/Mercedes roles was that he was/is also a damn good manager. Being able to identify weaknesses in the teams structures and hiring the right people to address those is where he excelled I think (this is where all that oodles of money came in handy I suppose)

what about williams though, you think Im onto something there? makes sense a lot I think. I think they were bad couple years before 2008? and I seem to remember them being really good in melbourne and sepang but then dropped off as they didnt have the dev dollars to compete (in my head seem to remember it being the 2008 season when Brawn started off so dominant, but on reflectionand after reading your post I might have fudged that to fit with the theory! )

True enough. If I remember correctly, Williams were one of the three teams that started with the double diffuser (Brawn and Toyota being the others). Their car this year has been developed with a lot of PDVSA dollars though, so with Maldonado going to Lotus maybe their development budget has been reduced? Maybe not, I don't know.

But that's the thing about rule changes. It throws a spanner in the works. You never quite know what to expect until the season gets up and running.

mickdw

Didnt the double diffuser come from another team that shut up shop- was it super aguri? and as the staff were distributed among a few teams, the diffuser ended up on the other cars also.

greedygoblin

mickdw wrote: »

Didnt the double diffuser come from another team that shut up shop- was it super aguri? and as the staff were distributed among a few teams, the diffuser ended up on the other cars also.

I never heard that.

You're saying if Super Aguri had survived they could have won the championship? :eek:

Ghost Train

I think its a pretty different situation

Power unit vs diffuser, diffuser easier to understand and copy, power unit higher development cost and time, homologation might slow down development of other engines
Mercedes following development plan, getting right people in place, stronger driver line up than Brawn would have been seen to have.
Brawn GP was a rescue job, with engine switch, no conventional sponsorship, Mercedes more structured team, better placed keep up development

Cookie_Monster

Merc is indeed the new Brawn

On 16 November 2009 it was officially announced that Daimler AG in partnership with Aabar Investments had purchased a 75.1% stake in Brawn GP (Daimler AG: 45.1%; Aabar: 30%).[1] Reports suggest the partnership paid £110m for the 75.1%.[28] The team would be rebranded as Mercedes GP for 2010.

two pages and nobody mentioned that one, for shame

MS.ing

mickdw wrote: »

Didnt the double diffuser come from another team that shut up shop- was it super aguri? and as the staff were distributed among a few teams, the diffuser ended up on the other cars also.

something strangely familiar sounding about that actually :eek:

ZiabR

mickdw wrote: »

There is no doubt this is Ross Brawns car.
I think anyone who is anyone in F1 knows the input he had there and to be fair Paddy Lowe did acknowledge that Ross had a major input into it after winning in Malaysia.

It is quite stunning to look at Brawns history.
Williams - success
Sportscars - success
Benetton - success
Ferrari - success
Brawn - success
Mercedes - success

All success within 3 to 4 years of going to any team.

Has he really retired or is he going to pop up with McLaren Honda?

I think Mercedes have made a huge mistake in pushing him out. Old head, knows what it takes in terms of organisation to win, knows how to deal with the FIA when things get sticky. Can handle drivers etc

Good points there Mick. He may just come back with McLaren but they have moved away from the Team Principle setup so maybe not.

Arthur Beesley

Zcott wrote: »

I don't think he'll go to Williams. He's mentioned it in the past and always said no. Plus, that team seems to be on the way up with Pat Symonds. He's only been there since July last year and is a good guy to have around. No point in putting Ross Brawn in as well as or instead of Symonds. And I don't think they'd replace Claire Williams with Brawn.

It isn't a coincidence that Williams and Force India are more competitive this year. The Mercedes engine and energy package is contributing significantly to their competitiveness, so too early to say if Williams are 'back'.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love if they were.

Zcott

Arthur Beesley wrote: »

It isn't a coincidence that Williams and Force India are more competitive this year. The Mercedes engine and energy package is contributing significantly to their competitiveness, so too early to say if Williams are 'back'.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love if they were.

Yeah, their form is good but also flattered by an unreliable Renault and (apparently) overweight Ferrari. Still, they're doing better than last year so that's something. Hoping they get some decent points on the board before Ferrari and Red Bull turn on the money tap and ramp up the development.

mickdw

greedygoblin wrote: »

I never heard that.

You're saying if Super Aguri had survived they could have won the championship? :eek:

No, Not at all. There was a hell of alot more to the championship than the double diffuser. The (possibly bones of) idea was spread around the teams. Brawn implemented it very well together with a good overall package.

logik wrote: »

Good points there Mick. He may just come back with McLaren but they have moved away from the Team Principle setup so maybe not.

I dont know, R Denis intends to bring in another senior person above Eric bouilier, last I heard. Perhaps that is more linked to the honda partnership. Brawn surely worth many times his weight in gold to a team like Mclaren having significant knowledge of the now dominant Mercedes car.

ZiabR

mickdw wrote: »

I dont know, R Denis intends to bring in another senior person above Eric bouilier, last I heard. Perhaps that is more linked to the honda partnership. Brawn surely worth many times his weight in gold to a team like Mclaren having significant knowledge of the now dominant Mercedes car.

Can't argue with that really and Brawn knows Honda very well too.

Slutmonkey57b

More importantly, brawn knows how to recognise and use talented people, something McLaren have been awful at for years.

Ron particularly.