Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

longshotvalue

3:30 Newbury

Ballypatrick has been running well this year and his 3rd in the Eider is great form albeit over a longer trip on soft ground. He has plenty of decent form on good ground as well and at the current prices he looks the best value. He is down near the bottom of the weights here with a very good claimer on and is proven on this mark. This is a bit of a gut feeling selection but he looks sure to give us a decent run for our money at 10/1.

1 Point win 10/1 Sporting Bet

the groutch

Sort it Out in the 3:25 Gowran looks very well handicapped if the handbrake is coming off today.

superfurry1

Gone For Midnight Cataria and Spring Bok 11-1 and 14-1 Newbury two alan king horses with lively chances also gone for two more fanciful ew serenity now in the first at bangor and Devils Paintbrush 1st at newbury 16-1 and 33-1 respectively.

confused smu

Shafrah 4.25 Paul Hanagan rides for Richard Hannon clearly its the wieght thing but interesting all the same. goodluck

Also Viewpiont 5.35 does well after a small break.

carpothepunk

Really looking to get Ertijaal and Grandeur beaten today. Both drawn in the car park, Ertijaal after a break. I think Robin Hoods Bay is a bet in the Winter Derby. Didn't get the clearest passage in the trial behind Grandeur, and was doing his best late on. Around the 14s mark is big.

Alutiq interests me in the 3.15 interests me. Nice run at Kempton lto ahead of a nice yardstick, and will strip fitter. Ertijaal doesn't strike me as a very nice type, but could be anything. Against at 11/10 though, strongly.

Mainly lays, but ew plays on those.

ste2010

Trixie for today
Zekarya - Gow
Seeyouallincoppers -New
Tea for two - New

carpothepunk

Lily Waugh in the Mares only race at Newbury is interesting on the running of a November 16th race at Cheltenham. Going through it here, I'll have a small punt, maybe a tiny ew Trixie.

STADEdeLUC

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

Thanks a million mate, was on at christmas and was on again today

Nonoperational

Nice nice nice tipping. That's a nice leg to get up first in my lucky 15!

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

Lovely, jeez it was never in doubt.... Never lost at the course when staying up ..:D:D

le la rat

Nice picking Aidan. Good start for the boardsies

Francie Barrett

Shield 2nd in all of its last 5 appearances over hurdles.

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

The man that keeps giving! Well done Aidan, easy as you like.

Stacksey

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Shield 2nd in all of its last 5 appearances over hurdles.

Who keeps backing this horse? Its getting ridiculous

MonkstownHoop

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

Had spotted this in the paper but it was your post that forced me off my arse and into the bookies cheers

STADEdeLUC

Stacksey wrote: »

Who keeps backing this horse? Its getting ridiculous

Mugs like me keep backing O'Brien horses over obstacles, Plinth is another fine example of a horse that is always polished into

Stacksey

STADEdeLUC wrote: »

Mugs like me keep backing O'Brien horses over obstacles, Plinth is another fine example of a horse that is always polished into

He's gonna run amok in the next few months so keep your dollars til then, Australia is a beast and will win the 2000 guineas 5/2 now

ste2010

Actually think Molly's a diva is a ridiculously large price in the mares race at newbury. Given some of these are attending as an afterthought to the mares race in Cheltenham and ew bet could be a nice way to go at 25-1

BorneTobyWilde

Triumphant will be triumphant in 3.25
12- ew
Ran a decent race last time out. Came 6th that day but only lost by 7 lengths . Stone lighter today

carpothepunk

Nice run from Lily Waugh, she's very quick over her fences. Great ride from Costello there, though

UrbanSea

STADEdeLUC wrote: »

Mugs like me keep backing O'Brien horses over obstacles, Plinth is another fine example of a horse that is always polished into

No he isn't

Shield should have won today on his Katie T form but he isn't one to put faith in


I backed 3, probably one too many, two of them well backed. Highland Lodge at 10/1 last night, backed Hobbs horse in the bumper at Newbury at 10s into about 9/2 now and Spiritual Star at Lingfield at 7/1, was a smart horse when he was younger and wasn't beaten far in Parish Hall's Dewhurst. Really caught the eye last time out and worth a shot in an open race.

carpothepunk

Paul Hanagan won that in the first 200 yards. Horrific price. Ugh.

carpothepunk

And not one to jockey bash, but Jamie Spencer was absolutely shocking there on Alutiq, never put into the race.

sonnky

Roalco De Farges well fancied by connections here.Johnson said he would forfeit his riding fee if he didn't win.

UrbanSea

Highland Lodge isn't going a yard looks a horse for absolutely zero faith

carpothepunk

Some performance if he goes in any way close here.

carpothepunk

Just gone at the game it seems.

UrbanSea

Joined Rick as a horse I will not back again at all costs. Looks moody and lazy, looked like he had never jumped a fence today. Hard to believe he ran so well in the Hennessey

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Joined Rick as a horse I will not back again at all costs. Looks moody and lazy, looked like he had never jumped a fence today. Hard to believe he ran so well in the Hennessey

Ran no race. Looked to be sulking from when they jumped off. Was well backed, drifted a bit then punted again right at the off.

NaiveMelodies

Time to put him away for a rest and get him out next Autumn.

UrbanSea

Can't help but think there is going to be a surprise in the Derby at Lingfield. Something like Chil the Kite could shock Grandeur

BorneTobyWilde

Rebellious Guest 16-1 ew 3.50
Me like. Think it could run well. Ran a good time last time out

carpothepunk

This race the difference between a good and bad day. Don't like that revolving around a days trading. Built a position laying grandeur since the draw came out.

carpothepunk

And 17.5 far too big for Robins Hood Bay. In again win and place.

carpothepunk

Grandeur six or seven wide was nice.

carpothepunk

UrbanSea

Nice shout carpo! Anyone else think de Sousa looked woeful in the drive there

Oscars Well.

carpothepunk wrote: »

And 17.5 far too big for Robins Hood Bay. In again win and place.

Well done carpo

carpothepunk

carpothepunk wrote: »

Really looking to get Ertijaal and Grandeur beaten today. Both drawn in the car park, Ertijaal after a break. I think Robin Hoods Bay is a bet in the Winter Derby. Didn't get the clearest passage in the trial behind Grandeur, and was doing his best late on. Around the 14s mark is big.

Alutiq interests me in the 3.15 interests me. Nice run at Kempton lto ahead of a nice yardstick, and will strip fitter. Ertijaal doesn't strike me as a very nice type, but could be anything. Against at 11/10 though, strongly.

Mainly lays, but ew plays on those.

Great day. I'd built myself into a giant Grandeur lay hole this last week so that was nice.

ste2010

Highland lodge seems to run well fresh..after that his season ends

Alarming drift on Mullins horse here given shes about 15-20lbs better than the competition. Taken ew on dromnea as usually drifts on Mullins tell their own story

BorneTobyWilde

Luhaif 22-1 ew 5.00

UrbanSea

Thought William Carson gave that horse a good ride if you don't want it to win. Came about five wide and didn't once use the whip think he got third.

tomaussie

aidankkk wrote: »

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

Legend.

sdoc13

MonkstownHoop wrote: »

Had spotted this in the paper but it was your post that forced me off my arse and into the bookies cheers

Cheers aidan. Exact same. Was tempted but your post convinced me. Keep up the good work!

BumperD

carpothepunk wrote: »

And 17.5 far too big for Robins Hood Bay. In again win and place.

My god you had some day. Time to order the champagne.

walrusgumble

carpothepunk wrote: »

And not one to jockey bash, but Jamie Spencer was absolutely shocking there on Alutiq, never put into the race.

Surely, by now, one should avoid Jamie Spenser, even if he is riding well.

Nulty

carpothepunk wrote: »

And not one to jockey bash, but Jamie Spencer was absolutely shocking there on Alutiq, never put into the race.

Did it again with chapter seven. ..

Andalucia

Spencer has turned into a one dimensional jockey, he just loves holding them up, typical comment for a Spencer ride as follows:

Waited with, towards rear, soon ridden, some progress over 1f out, kept on, never nearer, not reach leader

Granted, now and then it works out like a wonder ride when he drops them on the line, coming from way back, but if I fancy a horse and see Spencer booked, I'd have second thoughts about backing it