The British budget.

gallag

Anyone else listening to this? Some very positive news that should directly aid the growth in the Irish economy!

Some highlights! http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26632255

Fastest growth of any advanced economy in the world, deficit to turn to surplus in 2018! Unemployment down massively, benefits claimants massively down! Exports and Manafacturing up faster than any other EU countries.

comongethappy

Their pension changes look interesting.

gallag

First enterprise zone for N.Ireland! http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-26646423

Chancellor George Osborne has announced the creation of Northern Ireland's first enterprise zone in Coleraine, County Londonderry.

dissed doc

gallag wrote: »

Anyone else listening to this? Some very positive news that should directly aid the growth in the Irish economy!

Some highlights! http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26632255

Fastest growth of any advanced economy in the world, deficit to turn to surplus in 2018! Unemployment down massively, benefits claimants massively down! Exports and Manafacturing up faster than any other EU countries.

I think boot production has also been beyond expectation and is set to exceed 62 million pairs, well above the forecast of 57 million.

The UK is like a rock in a sea of uncertainty.

Frank Lee Midere

The UK is just another credit boom. Housing again.

AlekSmart

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The UK is just another credit boom. Housing again.

True...Thank God we canny Celts learned from our last mistake and are avoiding this stuff......are'nt we.....Hello....hello...hell..hel..he..h........... :eek:

gallag

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The UK is just another credit boom. Housing again.

Or, mabey because manufacturering and exports are up and growing faster than any other EU country? Or ......



"A year ago at the Budget the OBR forecast the economy to grow by just 0.6% in 2013.

They now confirm that it grew by three times as much.

At the Autumn Statement, they significantly revised up their expectations for future growth.

Today I can tell the House they are revising up their forecast again.

A year ago, they predicted growth in 2014 would be 1.8%. At the Autumn Statement, 2.4%. Today the OBR forecast growth in 2014 of 2.7%.

That’s the biggest upward revision to growth between Budgets for at least 30 years.

Growth next year is also revised up to 2.3%.

Then it’s 2.6% in 2016 and 2017.

And with the output gap closed around a year earlier than previously predicted, growth returns to around its long term trend, at 2.5% in 2018.

Taken together, these growth figures mean our economy will be £16 billion larger than was forecast just four months ago.

we’re now growing faster than Germany, faster than Japan, faster than the US – in fact there is no major advanced economy in the world growing faster than Britain today. The pace of net job creation under this government has been three times faster than in any other recovery on record.

1.3 million more people in work.

The latest figures today show a staggering 24% fall in the claimant count in just one year, and the fastest fall in the youth claimant count since 1997.

The OBR today forecast one and a half million more jobs over the next five years.

Unemployment down from the 8% we inherited to just over 5%.

And the OBR predict earnings to grow faster than inflation this year and in every year of the forecast. That’s why the country can afford a real terms increase in the National Minimum Wage.

Mr Deputy Speaker, this is a government whose plan is delivering jobs.

We now have:

a record number in worka record number of women in workand for the first time in 35 years, a higher employment rate than the United States of America

That’s what we mean when we say we’re getting Britain working."

Scofflaw

They now confirm that it grew by three times as much.

At the Autumn Statement, they significantly revised up their expectations for future growth.

Today I can tell the House they are revising up their forecast again.

A year ago, they predicted growth in 2014 would be 1.8%. At the Autumn Statement, 2.4%. Today the OBR forecast growth in 2014 of 2.7%.

That’s the biggest upward revision to growth between Budgets for at least 30 years.

So, inaccurate as ever, but lucky this time...

amused,
Scofflaw

gallag

Scofflaw wrote: »

So, inaccurate as ever, but lucky this time...

amused,
Scofflaw

How often do the body's that predict growth etc get it bang on? If it ever evolving how can the get it bang on? Would you not consider the upward revision of growth due to recent information to be a good thing?

A pretty positive budget with good news for Ireland's largest consumer and place where many seek jobs but only sarcastic and inaccurate one liners in an economy forum, stay classy!

Amused (in a non condescending way!)
Gallag.

Scofflaw

gallag wrote: »

How often do the body's that predict growth etc get it bang on? If it ever evolving how can the get it bang on? Would you not consider the upward revision of growth due to recent information to be a good thing?

A pretty positive budget with good news for Ireland's largest consumer and place where many seek jobs but only sarcastic and inaccurate one liners in an economy forum, stay classy!

Amused (in a non condescending way!)
Gallag.

Why assume condescension? I'm delighted they're doing well, both for their own sake and ours, but it remains entertaining, and extremely lucky for them, that the largest error of 30 years is positive! In addition, that's pretty much all there is to comment on about it, unless one is supposed to be surprised, or object somehow. The wheel turns, and the current growth may be cyclical rather than structural.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Frank Lee Midere

gallag wrote: »

Or, mabey because manufacturering and exports are up and growing faster than any other EU country? Or ......



"A year ago at the Budget the OBR forecast the economy to grow by just 0.6% in 2013.

They now confirm that it grew by three times as much.

At the Autumn Statement, they significantly revised up their expectations for future growth.

Today I can tell the House they are revising up their forecast again.

A year ago, they predicted growth in 2014 would be 1.8%. At the Autumn Statement, 2.4%. Today the OBR forecast growth in 2014 of 2.7%.

That’s the biggest upward revision to growth between Budgets for at least 30 years.

Growth next year is also revised up to 2.3%.

Then it’s 2.6% in 2016 and 2017.

And with the output gap closed around a year earlier than previously predicted, growth returns to around its long term trend, at 2.5% in 2018.

Taken together, these growth figures mean our economy will be £16 billion larger than was forecast just four months ago.

we’re now growing faster than Germany, faster than Japan, faster than the US – in fact there is no major advanced economy in the world growing faster than Britain today. The pace of net job creation under this government has been three times faster than in any other recovery on record.

1.3 million more people in work.

The latest figures today show a staggering 24% fall in the claimant count in just one year, and the fastest fall in the youth claimant count since 1997.

The OBR today forecast one and a half million more jobs over the next five years.

Unemployment down from the 8% we inherited to just over 5%.

And the OBR predict earnings to grow faster than inflation this year and in every year of the forecast. That’s why the country can afford a real terms increase in the National Minimum Wage.

Mr Deputy Speaker, this is a government whose plan is delivering jobs.

We now have:

a record number in worka record number of women in workand for the first time in 35 years, a higher employment rate than the United States of America

That’s what we mean when we say we’re getting Britain working."

You know I said this was because of a housing bubble, everything you said is true - well, everything you and George said - but it is still because of a housing bubble. FF could have made that kinda speech in 2006

djpbarry

AlekSmart wrote: »

True...Thank God we canny Celts learned from our last mistake and are avoiding this stuff......are'nt we.....Hello....hello...hell..hel..he..h........... :eek:

You'd have hoped someone in the UK (specifically London) would have learned though, wouldn't you?

House prices in London have risen a staggering 13% in the last 12 months:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26730912

realitykeeper

gallag wrote: »

Anyone else listening to this? Some very positive news that should directly aid the growth in the Irish economy!

Some highlights! http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26632255

Fastest growth of any advanced economy in the world, deficit to turn to surplus in 2018! Unemployment down massively, benefits claimants massively down! Exports and Manafacturing up faster than any other EU countries.

The only growth that matters is the growth in manufacturing. Internal growth in any economy doesn`t really count, in fact it can undermine competitiveness which is crucial. The UK tend to focus on high end manufacturing which traditionally made sense but I have concerns about that. All the developed economies are in danger of crashing and the less developed the country is the less effected it will be when the crash happens.

Britain should get back to manufacturing basic everyday stuff for its own needs and for export. To do that Britain needs to be able to compete with the second world and third world to manufacture lower value everyday goods. Therefore the minimum wage in the UK should be abolished, the dole should be hacked back and the entire public sector should be trimmed to snippet of its present size (as should their their pay). Maybe then, Britain will have a dignified future. I would prescribe a stronger version of the same medicine for Ireland.

Calibos

Report on Sky News about the labour shortage in the building industry in the UK today. Brickies on £100,000 etc.

Looks like calling the Irish gombeen is akin to the pot calling the kettle black. Sure what could mighty Britain learn from the Irish!! Idiots.

nice_guy80

Hopefully the tourists will return from the uk

djpbarry

realitykeeper wrote: »

The UK tend to focus on high end manufacturing...

I wouldn't agree with that. The UK's economy is massively over-dependent on London, which is massively over-dependent on The City. There was a decent documentary on just this subject on BBC recently:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03xp6x7

realitykeeper wrote: »

All the developed economies are in danger of crashing and the less developed the country is the less effected it will be when the crash happens.

To do that Britain needs to be able to compete with the second world and third world to manufacture lower value everyday goods. Therefore the minimum wage in the UK should be abolished, the dole should be hacked back and the entire public sector should be trimmed to snippet of its present size (as should their their pay). Maybe then, Britain will have a dignified future. I would prescribe a stronger version of the same medicine for Ireland.

Right, so in order to avoid any future crashes of developed economies, we should get rid of developed economies?

Fratton Fred

djpbarry wrote: »

You'd have hoped someone in the UK (specifically London) would have learned though, wouldn't you?

House prices in London have risen a staggering 13% in the last 12 months:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26730912

Those pesky Russians.

gallag

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the UK economy will be the fastest-growing in the G7 this year. http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26935148

djpbarry

gallag wrote: »

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the UK economy will be the fastest-growing in the G7 this year. http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26935148

You'll forgive me if I keep the champagne on ice until such time as the cheapest new homes being built in London are no longer beyond the reach of those on modest incomes.

gallag

djpbarry wrote: »

You'll forgive me if I keep the champagne on ice until such time as the cheapest new homes being built in London are no longer beyond the reach of those on modest incomes.

Why is that important? London is a bubble and attracts investors from all over the world, simple fact is there are parts of London where people on modest incomes cannot afford to live, get used to it, it's the same in most capital city's, look at Dublin!

The important thing is completing infrastructure like HS2 so that people don't need to live in London.

creedp

djpbarry wrote: »

You'll forgive me if I keep the champagne on ice until such time as the cheapest new homes being built in London are no longer beyond the reach of those on modest incomes.

I thought that it was only in Ireland where those on modest income feel they have an entitlement to purchase their own house .. is it not the preceived wisdom of many on here that renting should be the the future for ordinary folk?

djpbarry

gallag wrote: »

Why is that important? London is a bubble...

Exactly. That's kind of the problem and kind of the reason why I'm somewhat sceptical of the UK's miraculous economic recovery. Is there really much substance to it?

gallag wrote: »

...simple fact is there are parts of London where people on modest incomes cannot afford to live...

Simple fact is there are few parts of London where people on modest incomes can afford to live.

gallag wrote: »

...it's the same in most capital city's, look at Dublin!

Property prices and/or rents in Dublin are absolutely nowhere near the levels they are at in London. A one-bed flat in the centre of Dublin will set you back about €130k at the moment, while you'll do well to find the same anywhere in London for less than about £300k.

gallag wrote: »

The important thing is completing infrastructure like HS2 so that people don't need to live in London.

Meaning what? We move towards a situation where half the country is commuting to London? Would it not make more sense to do something about foreign investors snapping up property in London and forcing everyone else to move further out? Maybe do something to incentivise developers into targeting the local market, rather than the high-end overseas market?

djpbarry

creedp wrote: »

I thought that it was only in Ireland where those on modest income feel they have an entitlement to purchase their own house .. is it not the preceived wisdom of many on here that renting should be the the future for ordinary folk?

But I'm not just talking about buying, I'm talking about both buying and renting.

creedp

djpbarry wrote: »

But I'm not just talking about buying, I'm talking about both buying and renting.

Point taken

carpejugulum

Social welfare reforms should be copied asap.

djpbarry

carpejugulum wrote: »

Social welfare reforms should be copied asap.

Who should copy who?

carpejugulum

djpbarry wrote: »

Who should copy who?

No social reform to copy here so have a guess.

djpbarry

carpejugulum wrote: »

No social reform to copy here so have a guess.

Really? How about the requirement for habitual residence?

rightwingdub

Calibos wrote: »

Report on Sky News about the labour shortage in the building industry in the UK today. Brickies on £100,000 etc.

Looks like calling the Irish gombeen is akin to the pot calling the kettle black. Sure what could mighty Britain learn from the Irish!! Idiots.

A brickie on £100,000 a year, how many hours or level of production a brickie must do to get that sort of money a year.

The s**t is going to hit the fan in the UK property market in the next couple of years especially in London and SE England.

carpejugulum

djpbarry wrote: »

Really? How about the requirement for habitual residence?

If that's considered a reform, it just shows how ridiculous welfare laws and regulations are here.

djpbarry

carpejugulum wrote: »

If that's considered a reform, it just shows how ridiculous welfare laws and regulations are here.

I don't really understand your argument at all.

You're suggesting that Ireland should copy UK welfare reforms?

I'm pointing out that it's currently more difficult to claim welfare in Ireland than it is in the UK. For example, one must generally be habitually resident in Ireland in order to claim welfare, but there is no such requirement here in the UK.

So, I'm somewhat confused as to why you think Ireland should copy the UK?

carpejugulum

djpbarry wrote: »

I'm pointing out that it's currently more difficult to claim welfare in Ireland than it is in the UK.

Do you have any evidence that is not a generic argument?

djpbarry

carpejugulum wrote: »

Do you have any evidence that is not a generic argument?

Well, for example, the criteria for obtaining Jobseeker's Allowance/Benefit in Ireland are more stringent than the criteria for obtaining Jobseeker's Allowance in the UK. In Ireland, you essentially need two years of PRSI contributions to qualify for Jobseekers Benefit, or else pass a means test and a habitual residency test to qualify for Jobseekers Allowance. There are no such requirements in the UK, other than proving that you've been in the country for 3 months:

To get Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) you must:

• be 18 or over but below State Pension age - there are some exceptions if you’re 16 or 17
• not be in full-time education
• be in England, Scotland or Wales
• be able and available for work
• be actively seeking work
• work on average less than 16 hours a week
• go to a JSA interview

https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/eligibility

The idea that Ireland is a relative "soft touch" when it comes to welfare is a myth.

carpejugulum

djpbarry wrote: »

Well, for example, the criteria for obtaining Jobseeker's Allowance/Benefit in Ireland are more stringent than the criteria for obtaining Jobseeker's Allowance in the UK. In Ireland, you essentially need two years of PRSI contributions to qualify for Jobseekers Benefit, or else pass a means test and a habitual residency test to qualify for Jobseekers Allowance. There are no such requirements in the UK, other than proving that you've been in the country for 3 months:

https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/eligibility

The idea that Ireland is a relative "soft touch" when it comes to welfare is a myth.

Evidence like numbers not theoretical conjunctions.

djpbarry

carpejugulum wrote: »

Evidence like numbers not theoretical conjunctions.

There's nothing theoretical about it. Welfare is far more accessible in the UK than it is in Ireland and I've provided the qualifying criteria for UK jobseekers allowance that demonstrates this is the case. But, you'd like to cling on to the idea that everyone and anyone can claim whatever they like from the Irish state with ease, so you're going to dismiss anything that suggests otherwise.

Anyways, I'm going to leave that there because it's not really relevant to this thread.