Cheltenham 2015- Advice to self

sdoc13

After one of the toughest weeks punting I ended up with 20 Pts profit, more from sheer luck than design.

I has placed a .5pt we ante post bet on LW the day of the Hennessy as I had thought he was a bit of value the night before the race. Left it till the day when it was pricewised. Decided to have the sake in the ante post market as had missed the price on the day. If PP had offered me a Fiver for it this morning I would have snapped his hand off! What do I know.

Anyway, I made so many mistakes this week I am putting this up to as a reminder to try and avoid the same next year. Please add your thoughts need all the help I can get!

1. Do not back horses 10 or older in championship races.
2. If you have secured some value in the AP market or early price on a mover do not cover by backing another horse. Lay or let it ride.
3. Do not back multiple horses in race.
4. Be wary of Mullins chasers. Has awful record. (This Advise may have to be ignored if vatour, faugheen and Don poli go chasing)
5. DO NOT get carried away with the hype or hype horse. I swore after Pont Alexander this would never happen again and yet I still got stuck into AP.
6. If you get ahead be cautious. It's hard earned, try not to gift it back.
7. Do arb, this saved me a fortune. Take advantage of the enhanced priced and freebets it could be the difference between a profitable festival and a losing one.

I don't post here often but I have been following the forum for a year. Thanks to all the posters who put up great information and analysis. Long may it continue.

Imhof Tank

Here is my advice - buy the Irish Field the week before Cheltenham 2015 and back Nick Mordin's selections blindly for the week.

sdoc13

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Here is my advice - buy the Irish Field the week before Cheltenham 2015 and back Nick Mordin's selections blindly for the week.

He had some week. Wish it was always that simple.

Imhof Tank

sdoc13 wrote: »

He had some week. Wish it was always that simple.

It has been that simple the past few years actually

Last year Rajdani Express 20/1 I think he was on the day and bigger before. Plenty of other winners as well but that one sticks in the mind.

What really got me into Mordin's system was Big Zeb, Weapons Amnesty both 10/1 in 2011, double paid 120/1.

finbarrk

Nick Mordins selections would have paid a €30 profit approx to a €1 EW stake. He is consistently good for Cheltenham. And that was at SP.

unitedrover

sdoc13 wrote: »

After one of the toughest weeks punting I ended up with 20 Pts profit, more from sheer luck than design.

I has placed a .5pt we ante post bet on LW the day of the Hennessy as I had thought he was a bit of value the night before the race. Left it till the day when it was pricewised. Decided to have the sake in the ante post market as had missed the price on the day. If PP had offered me a Fiver for it this morning I would have snapped his hand off! What do I know.

Anyway, I made so many mistakes this week I am putting this up to as a reminder to try and avoid the same next year. Please add your thoughts need all the help I can get!

1. Do not back horses 10 or older in championship races.
2. If you have secured some value in the AP market or early price on a mover do not cover by backing another horse. Lay or let it ride.
3. Do not back multiple horses in race.
4. Be wary of Mullins chasers. Has awful record. (This Advise may have to be ignored if vatour, faugheen and Don poli gfirst ssing)
5. DO NOT get carried away with the hype or hype horse. I swore after Pont Alexander this would never happen again and yet I still got stuck into AP.
6. If you get ahead be cautious. It's hard earned, try not to gift it back.
7. Do arb, this saved me a fortune. Take advantage of the enhanced priced and freebets it could be the difference between a profitable festival and a losing one.

I don't post here often but I have been following the forum for a year. Thanks to all the posters who put up great information and analysis. Long may it continue.

1.With your 1st rule, I would agree. Big Bucks was the veteran I got caught with and Hurricane Fly slightly (MTOY was my main fancy). I just seemed to have an attachment to these horses since they first won. Lesson there is when it comes to betting dismiss loyalty when a horse reaches double digits.
2. I was guilty of this. Afraid to risk more on Vautour and Faugheen so guess what - I bet on irving and Red Sherlock. Regret those bets.
3. Again guilty and most of the time my first choice was the winner. Fancied ballynagour as he owed me from last year but ended up having more on Third Intention so much less profit then.
4. Didn't back his but more by luck rather than any awareness of his bad record. Though the ones I did pick didn't do much better.
5. This hype thing is questionable. Yes AP was hyped but Faugheen definitely was too. I just feel AP was outstayed but people calling her the next Dawn Run was a bit ott imo.

Another thing I noted was the fact that certain trainers seem to excel and target certain races.Re David Pipe he has won the Byrne Group plate 3 of the last 5 years. Venetia Williams has a strong record in it too. Willie Mullins seems to be the man for the novice hurdles.

BumperD

Hello once again. SRFC. You've more masks than you'd find in Gothom City.

unitedrover

Ruby118 wrote: »

Was Big Bucks bottomed in the cleeve with the hard ride in soft ground or was that his level of performance? I think he was soured but probably wasnt near his best anyways in that race,


I thought STD was completely wrong to give him a hard race in the world hurdle,he rode it out for 5th even smashing the legend with the whip to go by rule the world even though the winner was 15 lengths ahead,no excuse for this seems im the only one disgusted.

Big Bucks is gone, simple as. (Retired now anyway). Give me a name of a horse that return after injury to the same level they were at before it. I can't think of any and it seems any that returned this year are all finished again.

RichieLawlor

unitedrover wrote: »

Big Bucks is gone, simple as. (Retired now anyway). Give me a name of a horse that return after injury to the same level they were at before it. I can't think of any and it seems any that returned this year are all finished again.

Hurricane Fly

mountai

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Hurricane Fly

Solwhit

fits

Advice to self: make sure to go.

I missed watching my first gold cup in years yesterday. Couldn't get it online as internet went on me (abroad)

sdoc13

BumperD wrote: »

Hello once again. SRFC. You've more masks than you'd find in Gothom City.

Definitely not srfc. If my post suggested I was I apologies to the universe

sdoc13

unitedrover wrote: »

1.With your 1st rule, I would agree. Big Bucks was the veteran I got caught with and Hurricane Fly slightly (MTOY was my main fancy). I just seemed to have an attachment to these horses since they first won. Lesson there is when it comes to betting dismiss loyalty when a horse reaches double digits.
2. I was guilty of this. Afraid to risk more on Vautour and Faugheen so guess what - I bet on irving and Red Sherlock. Regret those bets.
3. Again guilty and most of the time my first choice was the winner. Fancied ballynagour as he owed me from last year but ended up having more on Third Intention so much less profit then.
4. Didn't back his but more by luck rather than any awareness of his bad record. Though the ones I did pick didn't do much better.
5. This hype thing is questionable. Yes AP was hyped but Faugheen definitely was too. I just feel AP was outstayed but people calling her the next Dawn Run was a bit ott imo.

Another thing I noted was the fact that certain trainers seem to excel and target certain races.Re David Pipe he has won the Byrne Group plate 3 of the last 5 years. Venetia Williams has a strong record in it too. Willie Mullins seems to be the man for the novice hurdles.

agree on faugheen but I was on at fancy prices. Shouldn't have stuck into a shorty hyped horse when had missed the decent prices.

also agree with you on the trainers.

There is always seems to be certain jockeys/ trainers / owners that get a bit of momentum during the week and those eg. D Jacob that don't. Avoid those on bad run and go with those having the luck.

this year Geraghty, Scudamore, Robbie Mc, Johnjo, Hobbs, pipe

supremenovice

Dont blindly follow any jockey just because hes had a good winter.
Im looking at you...Aidan Coleman. 16 unplaced losers. Thanks a million.

Also, dont bother with the preview nights. I was at the Westmanstown one and was mostly tripe. Although, Ruby did give the Sire de Grugy / Somersby forecast.

convert

supremenovice wrote: »

Dont blindly follow any jockey just because hes had a good winter.
Im looking at you...Aidan Coleman. 16 unplaced losers. Thanks a million.
.

Yeah, cos he's the only jockey who had all his mounts unplaced at Cheltenham! :rolleyes: I've never understood how some people blindly follow any jockey, regardless of who it is!

jimjamcos

supremenovice wrote: »

Dont blindly follow any jockey just because hes had a good winter.
Im looking at you...Aidan Coleman. 16 unplaced losers. Thanks a million.

Also, dont bother with the preview nights. I was at the Westmanstown one and was mostly tripe. Although, Ruby did give the Sire de Grugy / Somersby forecast.

Geraghty put up Jezki and More of That in a 100e ew double at the one I was at. Returned over 10,000 for the IJF. Geraghty also tipped up O'Faoilans Boy as an ew bet and most of the panel gave Tiger Roll an ew chance.

Geraghty did say Bobs was his best chance of a winner though but he's still a judge and well worth listening to!

Keano

If I don't fancy anything, then just watch the damn race

Niallers87

I for one learned to go with my gut instinct when i didnt it ended up costing me; rookie mistake!

unitedrover

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Here is my advice - buy the Irish Field the week before Cheltenham 2015 and back Nick Mordin's selections blindly for the week.

I backed some of his picks but I couldn't see Jezki or Lord Windermere being anywhere good enough.

Howjoe1

the advice I gave myself the year before, was don't waste your time listening to opinions on Preview Nights. And I'm sure I missed out on nothing this year.

I wonder what % of Patrick Mullins, Segal etc tips won?

Motivator

Howjoe1 wrote: »

the advice I gave myself the year before, was don't waste your time listening to opinions on Preview Nights. And I'm sure I missed out on nothing this year.

I wonder what % of Patrick Mullins, Segal etc tips won?

None! Segal must make a fortune laying the horses he picks. The plunges on most of the horses he tips are ridiculous.

Hulk Hands

Motivator wrote: »

None! Segal must make a fortune laying the horses he picks. The plunges on most of the horses he tips are ridiculous.

Mustve imagined the 12/1 he put up about Dynaste so? The horses plunge for a a reason. Because his record is ridiculously good

Motivator

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Mustve imagined the 12/1 he put up about Dynaste so? The horses plunge for a a reason. Because his record is ridiculously good

I don't follow Segal at all so no I didn't see what he tipped up. My only knowledge of the man is seeing horses blue across the board on oddschecker on a Friday night & I hear lads say "that was procewised". I've plenty mates who follow him & they say plenty horses he tips up halve in price between the night before & the off.

nuckeythompson

supremenovice wrote: »

Dont blindly follow any jockey just because hes had a good winter.
Im looking at you...Aidan Coleman. 16 unplaced losers. Thanks a million.

Also, dont bother with the preview nights. I was at the Westmanstown one and was mostly tripe. Although, Ruby did give the Sire de Grugy / Somersby forecast.

I agree those previews nights are tripe and like watching paint dry. Only value was the free bets. Bryan Cooper is woeful bad as is richie mclernon with a mic

sdoc13

Advice from myself to myself from last year. Hope I follow it.

Im am bumping it as it may help some of us who can get carried away during this glorious week!

Happy punting

Limestone1

With tomorrow in mind :

5. DO NOT get carried away with the hype or hype horse. I swore after Pont Alexander this would never happen again and yet I still got stuck into AP.

Which one is the Hype horse though ? Douvan ? UDS ? Faugheen ?

sdoc13

Limestone1 wrote: »

With tomorrow in mind :

5. DO NOT get carried away with the hype or hype horse. I swore after Pont Alexander this would never happen again and yet I still got stuck into AP.

Which one is the Hype horse though ? Douvan ? UDS ? Faugheen ?

To be honest I am not sure. Maybe all maybe none, If I had to pick Douvan for me.

rossom

Don't blow your load on day 1. End of story

mohican22

sdoc13 wrote: »

Advice from myself to myself from last year. Hope I follow it.

Im am bumping it as it may help some of us who can get carried away during this glorious week!

Happy punting

Have to say your opening post is one of best I have ever read on here

chipsdave

Perhaps my mindset is a little different from others but why back a 5-4 shot heavily just because it is Cheltenham ?? why put on more money just because it is Cheltenham ?? This is where the real hype is , on a personal note I like e-w accumulative ( esp doubles) bets best seeing as the market is so strong and 1-4 odds each race , big priced runners , GL to all

unitedrover

unitedrover wrote: »

Big Bucks is gone, simple as. (Retired now anyway). Give me a name of a horse that return after injury to the same level they were at before it. I can't think of any and it seems any that returned this year are all finished again.

And here I am backing Sprinter Sacre. Hope its not a repeat of BB last year.

unitedrover

unitedrover wrote: »

And here I am backing Sprinter Sacre. Hope its not a repeat of BB last year.

Its like BB all over again.

sdoc13

unitedrover wrote: »

Its like BB all over again.

I backed him too.. Not to the extent I did BB last year thank god. Still will we ever learn.

Morleystreet

sdoc13 wrote: »

After one of the toughest weeks punting I ended up with 20 Pts profit, more from sheer luck than design.

I has placed a .5pt we ante post bet on LW the day of the Hennessy as I had thought he was a bit of value the night before the race. Left it till the day when it was pricewised. Decided to have the sake in the ante post market as had missed the price on the day. If PP had offered me a Fiver for it this morning I would have snapped his hand off! What do I know.

Anyway, I made so many mistakes this week I am putting this up to as a reminder to try and avoid the same next year. Please add your thoughts need all the help I can get!

1. Do not back horses 10 or older in championship races.
2. If you have secured some value in the AP market or early price on a mover do not cover by backing another horse. Lay or let it ride.
3. Do not back multiple horses in race.
4. Be wary of Mullins chasers. Has awful record. (This Advise may have to be ignored if vatour, faugheen and Don poli go chasing)
5. DO NOT get carried away with the hype or hype horse. I swore after Pont Alexander this would never happen again and yet I still got stuck into AP.
6. If you get ahead be cautious. It's hard earned, try not to gift it back.
7. Do arb, this saved me a fortune. Take advantage of the enhanced priced and freebets it could be the difference between a profitable festival and a losing one.

I don't post here often but I have been following the forum for a year. Thanks to all the posters who put up great information and analysis. Long may it continue.

Always thought this was an interesting post from a few years back by sdoc.
Not saying that I'll follow all the advice myself but an interesting read given the week that's coming.

sdoc13

Morleystreet wrote:

Always thought this was an interesting post from a few years back by sdoc. Not saying that I'll follow all the advice myself but an interesting read given the week that's coming.

Cheers Morley.
Must reread it myself.
Don't get the time to put into it i used to so every little helps.

Andrew00

Drink and gamble responsibly

famagusta

Andrew00 wrote:

Drink and gamble responsibly

I will be doing neither responsibly this week!!

Andrew00

Stay away from the Post Office or Credit Union after you’ve squandered all ur money on the Tuesday

supremenovice

supremenovice wrote: »

Dont blindly follow any jockey just because hes had a good winter.
Im looking at you...Aidan Coleman. 16 unplaced losers. Thanks a million.

Also, dont bother with the preview nights. I was at the Westmanstown one and was mostly tripe. Although, Ruby did give the Sire de Grugy / Somersby forecast.

:pac: Coleman hasnt wont since either. Woeful Festival record. But I think he'll put it right with Paisley PArk this year