Cheltenham - Buck V The Bank

hucklebuck

Hi all,

I have a lot more time than normal this week, thanks be to jeebus.

I had intended on doing a log based on the Kelly Criterion, which I thought was about placing bets by percentage of your bank depending on the chance you think it has of winning and there were a lot of no bet results so that has gone out the window. I am going to run with my idea of scaling the bets as follows:

Excellent Bet 15% of bank
Good Bet 10% of bank
Worth a Bet 5% of bank
Minimum Bet €2

My starting bank is €64 due to the current economic climate bollix, so using the above rules I can place 14 "excellent bets" before the bank is gone.

I will be doing single win bets and if I feel there is merit to it or I cannot split two/ three horses I will pick two/ three in a race.

I will stick up Tuesdays selections when I have had a good look at the races.

Good luck to all following and hopefully I can make us some money.

Best of luck with your own bets,


Buck

jousting with chairs

Good luck,
hope you clean the feckers

hucklebuck

And they're off, Betfair doing BOG for the festival:

1:30 - Wicklow Brave - 9.4 - Good Bet, stake 10% bank

I love the way he travelled the last day and Ruby tried to hang on to him but he looked to have a right burst of pace, my biggest concern is the jockey who AFAIK has not won at the festival. Ruby will try steal it from the front but if Wicklow can hang on to the back of him I think the pace will win it for him.

2:05 - Trifolium - 5.3 - Excellent Bet, stake 15% bank

I have been on Trifolium since his debut and I find a reason to desert him now, he has had breathing problems. He hasn't run on GS, from his action he looks like he will be ok on it. Add in a certain B Cooper who is 2/2 on him and the beating he dished out to very highly regarded horses in Leopardstown is the best form in the book to me.

2:40 - Holywell - 13 - Excellent Bet, stake 15% bank after last result
2:40 - Vino Griego 2.08 - Worth a Bet, stake 5% bank after last bet

Holywell, I got a tip for this for this lad in Warwick over hurdles and duly backed him, he seemed to wander a bit on the run it and it struck me that blinkers might well be the making of him. Last year he had blinkers fitted and he dotted in at 25's. The blinkers have been taking off since he has gone chasing and they have been reapplied again for today so we can expect massive improvement due to blinkers and ground. He is prone to idle so I hope he gets delivered late.

Vino Griego is something of an enigma and another horse whose headgear disappears and reappears to good effect, I think the quicker ground will help and the ground will suit, very hot and cold but worth a small play at that price.

3:20 - Our Conor - 6.4 - Excellent Bet, stake 15%

His Triumph performance last year is one of the best runs I have ever seen, he has steadily been improving during the year with maturing and fitness and you can be sure he will be spot on. The ground will be fine and the pace will suit, the trainer thinks he will be better on the old course which means we could be in for a serious performance.

4:00 - Quevega - 1.88 - Excellent Bet, stake 15%

She will win, simples

4:40 - Shotgun Paddy 6.6 - Good Bet, stake 10%

He won a fantastic race last time out over a slightly shorter trip denying the brilliant Carruthers. That was over 3m5 and the further he went the further he was winning by. He is the highest rated horse in the race with the best jockey and off levels weights I think he should win this handy. I am amazed by his price but I wont complain.

5:15 - Gardefort 48 - Worth a bet, stake 5% bank or €2 (minimum bet)

He dotted up on good ground and was pulled up last time out on heavy. He has been allotted 11-1 and given the better ground and the form of the yard during the year, worth a small interest.

Baby Mix is another one that appeals but I will keep my powder dry to see how I am fixed for bank tomorrow.

Good Luck.

Edit: updated to percentages as per tanks post. I will do daily balance update as have stupid work this week.

Imhof Tank

Buck, wouldn't it make more sense to await the outcome of each bet - see what your running bank balance is - before calculating your stake on the next?

hucklebuck

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Buck, wouldn't it make more sense to await the outcome of each bet - see what your running bank balance is - before calculating your stake on the next?

It would indeed, baby brain strikes again. I will edit post to percentage.

I have to work tomorrow and Thursday I will update balance at end of day.

hucklebuck

A load of swings and roundabouts yesterday and the very sad loss of the brilliant Our Conor sums up the day:

Wicklow Brave -€6.40
Trifolium -€8.64
Holywell €87.96 (you little beauty)
Vino Griego -€2.08
Our Conor RIP -€17.21
Quevega €13.69
Shotgun Paddy -€14.63
Gardefort -€5.83

Balance €110.86 (Profit of €46.86/ 73%)
Deposit €89.86

New Balance €209.72



Edit: I have deposited winnings from another account into my Betfair account so I am going to start off my new balance of €209.72.

hucklebuck

I am under serious time constraints today and tomorrow as I have to work so I probably won't get any write ups done, here are todays selections:

1:30 Faugheen - 15%
2:05 Don Cossack - 15%
2:05 Corrin Wood - 5%
2:40 Ifandbutwhynot -10%
2:40 Cotton Mill 10%
3:20 Kid Cassidy 15%
3:20 Baily Green 5%
4:00 Balthazar King 10%
4:40 Orgiligo Bay 10%
5:15 Golantilla 5%

Good luck followers

hucklebuck

Looks like I am doing this on my own so I am going to leave it there.

Balance €194.32

JoeyJJ

Go on post todays if you can.