Cheltenham Trends

Gringo180

ARKLE

10/10 returned an SP no bigger than 9/1
10/10 had no more than five races over fences
9/10 finished in first two in all completed starts over fences
9/10 rated at least 142 over hurdles
9/10 were aged between five and seven(only two winners aged eight or over since 1960!)
9/10 had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival
9/10 finished in first two last time out
8/10 had run at the Festival before

FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHASE

10/10 were aged seven to ten
10/10 were rated 129-143
9/10 carried no more than 10st 12lb
9/10 won over at least three miles
8/10 had a top three finish last time out
7/10 had no more than eleven starts over fences

NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CHASE

10/10 had ran at least three times over fences
9/10 had finished first or second in a chase over at least three miles
9/10 had finished in the first four last time out
9/10 had won over at least 3miles (hurdles or fences)
9/10 were aged seven or eight
7/10 had no more than five races over fences

REWARDS FOR RACING NOVICES HANDICAP CHASE

9/9 were aged five to eight
8/9 finished either first or second on their last outing
8/9 were officially rated 132-142
8/9 finished in the top five on all their completed starts over fences
8/9 did not win on either of their first two starts over fences
8/9 had won over at least 2m 2f
7/9 had won no more than once over fences

NEPTUNE NOVICES HURDLE

10/10 were aged five or six
9/10 finished first or second last time out
9/10 started in the first six in the betting
9/10 had already won over at least 2m 4f over hurdles
9/10 had contested pattern races over hurdles
8/10 finished first or second on all completed starts over hurdles
8/10 started career in Irish point-to-points or bumpers
8/10 had won at least 50% of all their runs over hurdles
8/10 had NOT run at the Festival before

Gringo180

RSA CHASE

10/10 ran at least three times over fences
10/10 did not run on the flat
10/10 last ran between 24 and 53 days ago
9/10 were aged seven or eight(8/10 were aged seven!)
9/10 had nine to twelve total runs in hurdles and chases
9/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out

CORAL CUP

10/10 had an official rating of 148 or lower
9/10 had won between 2m 2f and 2m 6f over hurdles
9/10 had won a race earlier in the season
9/10 had not run for at least 32 days
8/10 were aged seven or younger
7/10 winners carried no more than 11st
7/10 had no more than four runs that season
7/10 had no more than nine runs over hurdles
7/10 finished first or second last time out

CHAMPION CHASE

10/10 had run no more than four times that season
10/10 had run at least seven times over fences
10/10 had won at least one race that season
10/10 had won over at least 2m 1f
9/10 were aged under ten-years-old
8/10 had previously competed at a previous Festival
8/10 won on their latest completed start
7/10 returned an SP of no bigger than 5/1

Gringo180

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

8/9 were trained in Ireland (as were 27 of the last 32 placed horses!)
8/9 were rated between 126-143
7/9 were aged nine or older
8/9 had won over at least three miles
7/9 carried no more than 10st 13lbs
6/9 had contested the cross country handicap at Cheltenham in December
5/9 had previously won a cross country race

FRED WINTER HURDLE

8/9 were rated between 124 and 133
7/9 did not win until their third start over hurdles or later
7/9 were by a Group One winning sire on the flat
5/9 won last time out
5/9 were set to carry a weight of at least 11-2
5/9 were won by French bred horses

CHAMPION BUMPER

10/10 were last time out winners(that stat covers nineteen of the twenty-one winners of the Champion Bumper)
9/10 were aged five or six
9/10 were off the track for at least 32 days
8/10 were trained in Ireland(and sixteen of all the twenty-one winners of this race!)
8/10 had won a bumper with at least thirteen runners
7/10 had won a bumper worth at least 4k (pounds or euros) to the winner
7/10 were bred in Ireland

PERTEMPTS HURLDE

10/10 had an official rating of no higher than 142
10/10 won at Class three or higher
9/10 aged six to nine
9/10 carried no more than 11-2 to victory

8/10 off the track between 20 and 48 days
7/10 had won over at least three miles
6/10 had six to fifteen runs over hurdles (only one Winner had more than twenty-five hurdle runs)

RYANAIR

9/9 had no more than four runs since October
9/9 had an official rating of at least 152
8/9 had previous winning form at Cheltenham
8/9 came from the first three in the betting market
8/9 had winning form at 2m 5f or above
7/9 had a top three finish last time out

WORLD HURDLE

10/10 returned an SP of 17/2 or less
10/10 finished first or second on all hurdle starts that season
10/10 had no more than four runs since August of that season
10/10 had won a Graded hurdle
10/10 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival
7/10 had between eight and twenty runs over hurdles
7/10 were aged six to eight

RichieLawlor

Gringo180 wrote: »

CHAMPION CHASE

10/10 had run no more than four times that season
10/10 had run at least seven times over fences
10/10 had won at least one race that season
10/10 had won over at least 2m 1f
10/10 were aged under ten-years-old
8/10 had previously competed at a previous Festival
8/10 won on their latest completed start
7/10 returned an SP of no bigger than 5/1

Can anyone spot the error here

Gringo180

BYRNE GROUP CHASE

10/10 had won at Class Three or higher
9/10 had an official rating of 128-139
8/10 had between three and fifteen runs over fences
8/10 had run within the last forty days
8/10 recorded a top five finish in their most recent race
8/10 carried 10st 10lb or less
8/10 aged between six and nine
7/10 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival

TRIUMPH HURDLE

10/10 had their last run within previous fifty-five days
9/10 were by a Group One winning sire
9/10 had won at least fifty percent of their hurdle races
9/10 were first past the post last time out
8/10 ran between two and six times over hurdles

KIM MHUIR RACE FOR AMATEURS

10/10 ran over at least three miles last time out
9/10 aged seven to nine
9/10 had a maximum of nineteen races over fences
9/10 won over at least three miles
8/10 finished in first three of either or both of last two starts
7/10 ridden by amateurs who no longer claim

COUNTY HURDLE

10/10 carried 11st 1lb or less
10/10 ran between four and sixteen times over hurdles
9/10 had run at least four times that season
9/10 had an official rating between 128-144
9/10 returned an SP no bigger than 20/1
8/10 last outing was within thirty-six days
8/10 were aged five or six
7/10 were making their first appearance at the Festival

ALBERT BARTLETT

9/9 won over 2m 4f or further
9/9 had at least three runs over hurdles
8/9 had a top two finish in a Graded Hurdle last time out
8/9 were in the first five in the betting
8/9 were aged six or seven

FOXHUNTER CHASE

10/10 won over at least three miles
9/10 last ran between twelve and thirty-four days before this race
9/10 had previously won under Rules
9/10 were aged ten or younger
8/10 had a top three finish last time out
7/10 started their careers in point to points

GRAND ANNUAL

10/10 had won over at least 2m 1f
10/10 carried 10st 13lb or less
9/10 had won no more than one race that season
9/10 were aged nine or under
9/10 had no more than twelve races over fences
8/10 had run at the Festival before

Gringo180

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Can anyone spot the error here

Just posting info emailed to me bud.

Gringo180

Moscow Flyer was 11??

RichieLawlor

Gringo180 wrote: »

Moscow Flyer was 11??

Correct

Gringo180

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Correct

Just edited it there.

flashjohn

Here's one: how many races last year went against the previous years trends?

Gavin "shels"

http://cheltenhamtrends.co.uk

UnitedIrishman

flashjohn wrote: »

Here's one: how many races last year went against the previous years trends?

Will check it out when get home and see what last years trends book picked out.

del roy

Gringo thanks for them.
Any chance for the stats for the supreme.

Ta

Motivator

Nice one Gringo.

I'm pushing it here but does anyone have a list of official ratings for the runners of some of the races? I haven't the time to go looking individually.

Gringo180

del roy wrote: »

Gringo thanks for them.
Any chance for the stats for the supreme.

Ta

15 of the last 17 winners won last time out
19 of the last 23 winners were aged 5 or 6
NH breeds have started to dominate recently
The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings
16 of the previous 19 winners had run in the previous 45 days
Just 3 of the last 18 horses to start 3/1 or shorter have won
Key races: Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle, Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle, Champion Bumper
Respect French-bred 4-year-olds receiving weight

NewApproach

Are any of these statistically significant? :rolleyes:

pugw

http://www.cheltenham-festival.co.uk/cheltenham-festival-results.php
Few trends here that would make you look past backing favourites!

tomaussie

NewApproach wrote: »

Are any of these statistically significant? :rolleyes:

Why the face ? If they're not for you then move along.

The guy has taken the time to put them up and has taken time to post responses to specific requests.

It's called contributing.

del roy

Gringo180 wrote: »

15 of the last 17 winners won last time out
19 of the last 23 winners were aged 5 or 6
NH breeds have started to dominate recently
The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings
16 of the previous 19 winners had run in the previous 45 days
Just 3 of the last 18 horses to start 3/1 or shorter have won
Key races: Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle, Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle, Champion Bumper
Respect French-bred 4-year-olds receiving weight

Thanks Gringo

realdanbreen

just wondering Gringo if the going or conditions affect the trends?
They would normally play a part .

Gringo180

del roy wrote: »

Thanks Gringo

No problem man.

realdanbreen wrote: »

just wondering Gringo if the going or conditions affect the trends?
They would normally play a part .

Yes I am sure they would but haven't got the information on the going unfortunately.

premierstone

NewApproach wrote: »

Are any of these statistically significant? :rolleyes:

Of course they are, there are people who follow them blindly which I would never advocate as there are some stats that are just irrelevant and have no logical basis, however others certainly are relevant and make sense.

realdanbreen

Gringo180 wrote: »

Just posting info emailed to me bud.

Just curious Gringo if last years stats held up do you know?

handsfree2

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just curious Gringo if last years stats held up do you know?

According to Paul Jones it wasn't

soundcloud.com/racing-fm/author-of-2015-cheltenham-festival-betting-guide-paul-jones-talks-to-racingfm

ste2010

del roy wrote: »

Gringo thanks for them.
Any chance for the stats for the supreme.

Ta

4 out of 10 horses that run in the race are never seen again
Mccoys next supreme win will only come when Hors La Loi returns to the track
The first 3 in the supreme will place in either the JLT, Arkle or champion hurdle
The following season or will be never seen again until a cold day in sedgefield 3 years later

JAORTA

Thanks gringo.im sure these trends will continue,it never ceases to amaze me how often they can play a big part in a successful Cheltenham....

NewApproach

Signal/Noise.

My head hurts.