M O'L says 5 years until RyanAtlantic

robbieVan

http://www.independent.ie/business/ryanair-plans-10-flights-to-the-us-when-service-launches-30041321.html

cruais

That press release from MOL is just another way of gaining free publicity, particularly at a time when EI & DAA are not exactly flavour of the month with the general public.

In all seriousness, his statements sound completely unrealistic. We all know MOL is a money grabber, whose goal is to make maximum profit at minimum cost.

€10 to the states? He is just sugar coating. Putting €10 petrol in the car only provides a few miles. An airbus 330 takes max 300 passengers. Multiply that by 10.....

Unless MOL is getting a fantastic deal on barrels of oil, also factoring in his landing costs in the USA, paying for his Boeing aircraft, also including applications for ETOPS and NON-ETOPS etc, he is living in cuckoo land

robbieVan

cruais wrote: »

That press release from MOL is just another way of gaining free publicity, particularly at a time when EI & DAA are not exactly flavour of the month with the general public.

In all seriousness, his statements sound completely unrealistic. We all know MOL is a money grabber, whose goal is to make maximum profit at minimum cost.

€10 to the states? He is just sugar coating. Putting €10 petrol in the car only provides a few miles. An airbus 330 takes max 300 passengers. Multiply that by 10.....

Unless MOL is getting a fantastic deal on barrels of oil, also factoring in his landing costs in the USA, paying for his Boeing aircraft, also including applications for ETOPS and NON-ETOPS etc, he is living in cuckoo land

10 euro minus taxes, baggage, food etc etc plus he'd put business class that'd cost a fortune i'm sure, be nice if it was a cheaper option in the end, even by a couple of hundred quid or so

zetalambda

I think the Ryanair model in this case would be to offer a certain amount of seats for €10, obviously not all 300.

donvito99

zetalambda wrote: »

offer a certain amount of seats for €10

2 to be exact, the pilots.

Kaizersoze81

obviously not all the seats would be 10. Maybe 5% of them at that price. Even if you could get seats for 100-150 each way it would be a huge improvement on current prices.

Jhcx

I'd say €10 is only for the seat. that excludes the 80€ taxes that will be thrown on top of that and the meals and baggage as he says in the article. Flights from the Uk will probably be a lot more in taxes as there taxes are lot higher. but even so a 100 or so ticket to the states would be brill

DieselPowered

What aircraft is he waiting for.. B757's?

MoeJay

This has been the story since about 2007...just do a google search on the issue. In fact it's only about 6 months since the last thread on this here!

It's always about 5 years away, just like MOL's retirement...

...and it never happens...yet another PR push.

TPMP

DieselPowered wrote: »

What aircraft is he waiting for.. B757's?

I'd imagine something bigger and more efficient, like the 787 or something.

IngazZagni

How is this even a PR stunt though? If anything it's just typical shoddy journalism from the Indo again. It was a comment made in passing at a conference and they took it out of context.

5 years ago, it was 5 years away. They will strike when the iron is hot. But there is no sign of a slowdown in the longhaul market for deliveries in the near future, if anything it is the opposite.

L1011

Kaizersoze81 wrote: »

obviously not all the seats would be 10. Maybe 5% of them at that price. Even if you could get seats for 100-150 each way it would be a huge improvement on current prices.

It'd also still be unsustainable. And its not like current prices are particularly high if booked in the advance distance that the existing Ryanair's cheapest seats require anyway.

There's other huge issues they'd need to address. Business passengers, both flying economy or premium particularly, stick with their FFP in a lot of cases. This is why only one of the niche "premium" operators that started after open skies came in survived, which was OpenSkies because it has access to BAs and hence Oneworlds FFP.

Offering transfers would require a complete re-work of how they handle checkins and baggage handling everywhere; not offering transfers will likely make it unsustainable.

Any TATL airline started by Ryanair or O'Leary seperately will not be the same as Ryanair - because if it was, it'd join the ranks of Laker, Zoom and Flyglobespan pretty quickly.

BeardySi

IngazZagni wrote: »

How is this even a PR stunt though? If anything it's just typical shoddy journalism from the Indo again. It was a comment made in passing at a conference and they took it out of context.

Cos MO'L is a bloody genius when it comes to free advertising, he knows full well all he has to do is mention something like Ryanair transatlantic, standing on planes, pay toilets or some other hare-brained idea and the every media outlet in the country will be talking about it, and therefore Ryanair for weeks....

irish_goat

Could possibly be another PR stunt but he will eventually either have to stop repeating it or put the plan into action.

hfallada

I know we see Ryanair having translatic flights every 6 months. But eventually he will have to offer it. He is going in the right direction with flights to Moscow from Dublin. But in our business lecturer in College said that Ryanair is no longer the only amazing company in the industry. The middle eastern Airlines are all brand new really and most of them are highly profitable and rapidly growing. Easyjet is doing quite well.

But the most striking Airline is Norwegian Air Shuttle. Well Ryanair has been talking about cheap low distance, Norwegian Air Shuttle has actually done it. Ryanair can keep making excuse on its delays for long distance, but when your competitors are doing something far better than you, when you are supposed to be an innovative airline. You will quickly change

murphym7

Has he actually ordered any planes for T/A yet? Its easy to say the Gulf carriers are buying up all the planes, put in an order and get in the que at least. When I see aircraft orders I will be convinced, until then, just another stunt. And not a new one either, the same old "we will get you to the USA for a tenner" crap.

ComeraghBlue

they are in discussions with Boeing and Airbus over a purchase of T/A planes. Im guessing either a A350 or B787. Whoever gives him the best deal they will go with. I don't think they'll be exclusively Boeing for much longer.

BuffyBot

Norwegian Air Shuttle has actually done it. Ryanair can keep making excuse on its delays for long distance, but when your competitors are doing something far better than you, when you are supposed to be an innovative airline.

Alas doing it, and doing it well are two separate things. Norwegian are flying along right now, but whether the business model is sustainable is a whole other thing.

zone 1

do it or dont. sick of hearing no planes available did he not just go over last year and order 175 737-8 from boeing. when he started low fares were they not second hand 737 2. there must be market out there for secondhand 767s or something..

Tenger

zone 1 wrote: »

do it or dont. sick of hearing no planes available.....there must be market out there for secondhand 767s or something..

With the current high fuel prices older aircraft are too expensive to run. Most start ups in Europe/Asia/USA these days are using new or newly new A320/B737's.

RyanAtlantic will need B787's or A350's.....unless they somehow manage to get some A330NEO if it is ever launched.

Technoprisoner

maybe he could pick up a few cheap planes from here http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0226/506866-qantas-job-cuts/

basill

There are always cheap aircraft available. Problem is that there are no cheap AND fuel efficient aircraft around. You could for example grab any number of A340s, but with 4 engines and a cruise/climb performance that barely outperforms the Wright Brothers there are very few takers. Then there are the airways and landing charges for a larger mass aircraft which cuts it out of most of the high density short routes across the Atlantic.

Anyway he has been banging on about this for years and I cant see it myself.

ballooba

Technoprisoner wrote: »

maybe he could pick up a few cheap planes from here http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0226/506866-qantas-job-cuts/

Qantas fleet has a lot of rubbish. EDIT: Although these might be of interest:

wrote:

Among cost-cutting measures, Mr Joyce said Qantas would defer receipt of the final three Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets it ordered for budget arm Jetstar, as well as the eight remaining Airbus A380s it has on order. The moves are part of a plan to either defer or sell a total of 50 aircraft.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/transport-and-tourism/slashing-jobs-and-jets-qantas-makes-plea-for-state-aid-1.1706642?page=2

murphym7 wrote: »

Has he actually ordered any planes for T/A yet? Its easy to say the Gulf carriers are buying up all the planes, put in an order and get in the que at least. When I see aircraft orders I will be convinced, until then, just another stunt. And not a new one either, the same old "we will get you to the USA for a tenner" crap.

Gulf carriers likely aren't demanding big discounts.

Gael23

I certaintly wouldnt want to do it on a 737 anyway.
Including taxes and baggage fees, I can see the lowest are being around €100.

roundymac

Ml Cawley says different.
.irishexaminer.com/business/200m-ryanair-passengers-very-realistic-260250.html
Sorry I can't get this link to work. Basicly what Cawley is saying is that Ryanair are not pursuing T/A any time in the near future, He describes Ml O' Leary's comments the day before as, " he has given me a hospital pass". He also stated that as he is leaving in 4 weeks time he can say what he likes. Read what you want into that statement.

eatmyshorts

roundymac wrote: »

Ml Cawley says different.
.irishexaminer.com/business/200m-ryanair-passengers-very-realistic-260250.html
Sorry I can't get this link to work. Basicly what Cawley is saying is that Ryanair are not pursuing T/A any time in the near future, He describes Ml O' Leary's comments the day before as, " he has given me a hospital pass". He also stated that as he is leaving in 4 weeks time he can say what he likes. Read what you want into that statement.

Most of us with any sense are well aware of the fact that 99% of what mol says is BS. But as usual the eejits fall for, and fawn over, the spin.

Dacian

ballooba wrote: »

.....
Gulf carriers likely aren't demanding big discounts.

Every carrier asks for discounts. The list price is rarely if ever paid by the airline......deals involve more than just the aircraft, EG. lengthy delivery schedule and/or early build new aircraft (A380/B787/A350) can be offset by price reductions.
Emirates are keeping the A380 line open so I'm sure they are getting good rates. Also Qatar as the launch customer for the A350 are certainly getting a good rate.

zone 1

MOL will be still talking about TA in 10 years time and we all be all still flying . VIRGIN. AL BA. and all US major airlines .

Dacian

I am of the opinion that this is just MoL shouting "look at me" as usual.

If they were really serious about it they would be talking to Boeing. With all the delays/problems with the B787 some airlines cancelled orders. So they are currently looking for customers for 11 of the early models, these are over weight so have a range penalty of 1800 KM shorter than the current production model.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/boeing-said-to-seek-buyers-for-1-1-billion-of-early-787s.html

L1011

Dacian wrote: »

I am of the opinion that this is just MoL shouting "look at me" as usual.

If they were really serious about it they would be talking to Boeing. With all the delays/problems with the B787 some airlines cancelled orders. So they are currently looking for customers for 11 of the early models, these are over weight so have a range penalty of 1800 KM shorter than the current production model.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/boeing-said-to-seek-buyers-for-1-1-billion-of-early-787s.html

They'd need to be a LOT cheaper to cover the cost of the extra fuel they'll consume over even a standard FR 9 year operating life. While not as comical as the first few they're holding back for VIP conversion, these birds are hugely overweight - they were rejected by their original airlines for a reason.

H3llR4iser

As simple as it is, it can't happen -unless they can find an airliner that flies burning the passenger's farts, 10 Euro / seat would not even remotely start to cover basic fuel costs for the flight.

It's surprisingly hard to find average fuel flow figures, but I have one at 1722 US Gallons/hour for a Boeing 767-200 from Boeing itself:

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/files/Boeing_KC-X_Fuel_Costs_Report_2007-11.pdf

So, 1722 G/H * 7H = 12054 gallons of fuel used for DUB-JFK.

Now, fuel price varies wildly depending on airline contracts, locations and so on; For may US-based airlines, it seems to be ranging between 1.80 to 3.00 $ per gallon. Let's be optimistic so:

12054 gallons * 1.80 $ = 21697 $ per 7 hours leg.

A 767-200 can carry up to 290 passengers in a Ryanair-suiting "crammed like sardines" configuration. So:

21697 $ / 290 passengers = ~75 $ per passenger.

That is fuels costs only, and the figure was obtained using what I would deem unrealistically optimistic data (source is Boeing itself, writing it in a self-promotional document; Cost of fuel considered was the lowest I found mentioned). Airport taxes, staff costs, aircraft maintenance and all the rest weren't even considered.

I find it really disturbing that the "average Joe" would fall for this kind of baloney from MOL/Ryanair, it doesn't take rocket science to figure out that "seats will cost 10 euro" is utter bullcrap.

That said, anybody knows where average fuel flow rates for various airliners can be found? I know of a flight-sim related site (www.fuelplanner.com) which is fairly accurate in the case of the mentioned 767-200 (gives out a figure of 1761 gallons/hour, not far from Boeing's claim), but I would prefer some real-world data.

basill

Your looking in the wrong place. Rather than searching for fuel flow rates you want to go onto smartcockpit or google search for FCOMs. In the FCOMs there is a performance section. You will be able to work out the burn for climb, cruise and descent if you want to get it accurate. You will need to make assumptions for average cruising FLs and factor in step climbs as well. Taxi fuel will be anything from 500kg upwards for an A330. For a rough and ready calculation you can use 5.5-6 tonnes per hr for an A330 as a burn.

murphaph

H3llR4iser wrote: »

As simple as it is, it can't happen -unless they can find an airliner that flies burning the passenger's farts, 10 Euro / seat would not even remotely start to cover basic fuel costs for the flight.

He obviously wouldn't sell every seat for a tenner, just a handful, like they do currently on short haul.

Scotty15

I think MO'L will put in a huge Aircraft order around 2016 for the 777-300ER because Boeing need to shift the 777-3 as much as possible before the 777X is built in 2019,Boeing will sell the 777-3 very cheap to him if they get a big order.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304703804579380830515165164

whitebriar

They'd have to be just selling 50 at most headline 10 Euro each way fares remember.
Leary also wants business class on the planes,so more money there.

Bebop

I read in the Sunday Times that Boeing are trying to shift some of their unsold 787's, offering a 50% discount off list price

These might be the aircraft built for ANA; early models were overweight and could not meet the range requirements, Boeing seem to have resolved this now but photos of Boeing Field show lots of undelivered early production 787's, no good for ANA but might suit Ryan Atlantic, or is MOL dreaming of the 747-8's?

IRLConor

Bebop wrote: »

I read in the Sunday Times that Boeing are trying to shift some of their unsold 787's, offering a 50% discount off list price

These might be the aircraft built for ANA; early models were overweight and could not meet the range requirements, Boeing seem to have resolved this now but photos of Boeing Field show lots of undelivered early production 787's, no good for ANA but might suit Ryan Atlantic, or is MOL dreaming of the 747-8's?

Going on publicly available numbers a 50% reduction on list price is roughly equivalent to about 130,000t of fuel.

How much extra fuel would be burned on the overweight 787s? How long to eat through that ~$100m advantage?

Bebop

The article quoted MOL as saying that Middle East and Gulf carriers are buying the 777 as fast as Boeing can turn them out so there is not much scope for him getting a good deal from Boeing, he seems to be thinking of buying used 757 and 767's and perhaps using Long Island McArthur Aiport (KISP) this is a major Southwest Air hub located 44 miles from Manhattan

donvito99

In other Ryanair news, the takeover bid appeal was rejected.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0307/600829-ryanair-competition-britain/

L1011

Bebop wrote: »

I read in the Sunday Times that Boeing are trying to shift some of their unsold 787's, offering a 50% discount off list price

These might be the aircraft built for ANA; early models were overweight and could not meet the range requirements, Boeing seem to have resolved this now but photos of Boeing Field show lots of undelivered early production 787's, no good for ANA but might suit Ryan Atlantic, or is MOL dreaming of the 747-8's?

Mix of ANA and Royal Air Maroc I believe. Another issue preventing or at least dissuading someone from buying the lot is they've different engines - I know Boeing have claimed that the 787 can have its engine manufacturer changed at any point but the reality is likely to be different from theory in that case.

Zonda999

There should be a fair few 777-200ER's around a few years from now, MOL could set them them up in a configuration like Scoot do with their 77E's. Far less common, but old 777-300's can't be the most desirable plane to hold onto come a few years either. One could only imagine how many they could squeeze into one of them!

Or...slightly less likely but there's nothing stopping him acquiring them now. Effectively all carriers seem to be getting rid of their A340-500 gas guzzlers at the moment, you could probably squeeze close to 400 seats in them as well. Singapore airlines are done with them as are Thai who recently announced they're getting rid.

Many people are saying that MOL would only start transatlantic service using 787's. I'm not so sure, Boeing still has a monstrous backlog and I can;t see them acquiring them for a good while yet

Comhrá

Ultimate wide-body, seemingly fairly cheap to run and he could pack in the pax too......and it could land on any old airfield-no need for long runways -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2416809/Return-zeppelin-Firm-unveils-gigantic-airship-revolutionise-goods-carried-world.html

owenc

We will wait and see.