Harris potentially going for Europe. Dáil by-election in Wicklow?

DazMarz

The rumour of Simon Harris (FG, Wicklow) taking the nomination to be a candidate in May's European Elections is gathering a lot of speed. Following the bowing out of many front-runners for the FG nod, Harris is now pretty front-and-centre for FG to run in the South constituency.

Harris himself is appearing reluctant enough, preferring to stay in the Dáil, but there is downwards pressure on him from the party hierarchy to stand for Europe. Fine Gael are positioned fairly strongly to contest and win a subsequent, possible by-election. Andrew Doyle, TD, would also be allegedly made a minister should Harris run and win for Europe.

Personally, I feel Harris would quite possibly win a seat in Brussels in May. But would Fine Gael be able to win the seat in the by-election? I'm not so sure.

Yes, they are very well positioned in Wicklow, with several very good and high-profile councillors; Mick Glynn, Sylvester Bourke, John Ryan and Irene Winters would all possibly fancy their chances.

Fianna Fáil would also love to win back "their" seat that they lost in 2011 (Wicklow has never not had a seat for Fianna Fáil, as far as I can recall; 2011 marked the first time that Fianna Fáil did not have a TD from Wicklow. Or at least for the majority of the time there has been a "safe" Fianna Fáil seat in Wicklow). Pat Casey and Pat Fitzgerald would be the most likely to run, though whispers of a new candidate coming through have been doing the rounds.

Labour have mooted Ronan McManus (son of Liz) to stand. With several Labour councillors resigning from the party of late (Jimmy O'Shaughnessy, Tom Fortune, Barry Nevin, Nicky Kelly all resigned; incumbent Conal Kavanagh is stepping down in May and new candidate Paul O'Brien would not have the experience), there are no clear Labour candidates as of yet. John Byrne has also been mentioned but it isn't known if he would go for the Dáil.

However, if there was to be a by-election, I would seriously think that John Brady of Sinn Féin would take the seat. He was incredibly unfortunate not to take a seat in 2011, only failing to be elected by 112 votes. He did not fall behind the eventual winner of the final seat (Stephen Donnelly) until Count 17. Donnelly was elected on Count 19. Brady is a very popular man in Wicklow, he has the anger against the Big 3 behind him, he has Sinn Féin behind him and would very likely to take a seat in the by-election. If he doesn't, I'd nearly have him nailed on as a cert in 2016.

I think Fine Gael would be naive to think that they would be assured to hold their seat in Wicklow should Harris be elected to Europe. Sinn Féin are growing more and more popular in Wicklow. Sinn Féin councillor John Snell would be well able to get the votes out in the Southern parts of the county, while Brady would be able to rely on his usual support in the Bray and Greystones areas of the north of the county.

Fine Gael returned 3 TD's in Wicklow in 2011. Only Enda Kenny's home constituency of Mayo returned 3 FG TD's as well. However, following the expulsion of Billy Timmins, they are down to 2.

If Simon Harris is elected to Europe, they could very well be down to 1. My personal feeling is that Sinn Féin or quite possibly Fianna Fáil would gain from this situation, should it arise. It all hinges on whether Harris runs, and then if he is subsequently elected. Personally, I think Fine Gael would be very foolish to nominate Harris. He is a very popular, young TD and would be a cert to retain his seat in 2016.

What say you? Who would potentially gain from Fine Gael's potential loss? Would Fine Gael be able to get one of their councillors in, or would this be the opportunity that Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil were waiting for?

spank_inferno

Well the constituency may not work well for him.

Its Munster with a few Leinster counties thrown in, so there is a disadvantage there

If he runs, I don't think he will win, he could even fare quite badly.

He has proven so far to be fairly sensible & eloquent when in the media & on the PAC.

I think, for his sake, he should stay put as a TD.

Plus, in the unlikely event of a by-election, Brady of SF would probably get in having being pipped by Donnelly in 2011.
If you thought SF were populist babdwagoners before, get a load of that guy.

Annasopra

I hear Andrew Doyle might be a candidate too.

I think a Wicklow candidate is more designed as a sweeper to get Leinster votes for Kelly and Clune and that Doyle or Harris may not take a seat.

FG asks its euro candidates to personally put up 100k which might explain Harris reluctance.

My guess is that Harris or Doyle will be a candidate and will be promised a sweetener of a Junior Ministry to replace Brian Hayes.

There is lots of talk re the bye election. Many possible candidates - Only yesterday a councillor told me they are throwing their hat in the ring.

Remember in 2011 there were 24 general election candidates.

FG Glynn/Ryan I think would be front runners.

FF Casey or Grant or perhaps maybe even Gary Redmond or Taragh Hanley (don't forget national gender quota for general election)

SF Brady

Labour McManus seems obvious but who knows

Greens Niall Byrne or maybe Steve Matthews

PBP possibly Jacqui Johnston

Independents; it really really wouldn't surprise me if there were about 12-15 including Christopher Fox, Pat Kavanagh, Jimmy O Shaughnessy, Miriam Murphy, Tom Fortune, Barry Nevin, Tommy Cullen, Nicky Kelly, Charlie Keddy, Jim Tallon, Jennifer Whitmore, Joe Behan.

spank_inferno

When will Keddy & Gallon just die??

Most of those Indies are FF/Lab.

Jeez, I wouldn't stump up 100k, just to be a 2nd pref grabber for Sean Kelly.

Big risk there.

Annasopra

spank_inferno wrote: »

When will Keddy & Gallon just die??

Most of those Indies are FF/Lab.

Jeez, I wouldn't stump up 100k, just to be a 2nd pref grabber for Sean Kelly.

Big risk there.

Well yeah the risk is there but then if you are offered a promotion (Brian Hayes ministry) as a sweetener.....

I wouldn't underestimate the egos of a lot of those independents. Although some of them might row in behind a main one.

FTA69

Jesus what a fright. I saw the thread title and thought of Eoghan Harris immediately.

BlutendeRabe

Can't see the Brady taking a seat in a by-election, too tall an order. Definitely will get in at 2016. SF would have a much better shot in Dublin South-West assuming Hayes gets elected.

Who would FF run? Hardly cockroach.

DazMarz

FF's front runner would have to be Pat Casey. Highest profile councillor in Wicklow for FF at the moment and one of the more popular ones.

Mick Glynn is getting a good bit of flak at the moment from comments he made against John Brady regarding clean-ups of drug infested areas in Bray. The popular opinion, especially amongst certain areas in Bray and North Wicklow has swung against Glynn in recent days and in favour of Brady.

I had never heard that FG made their European candidates stump up €100,000. Can understand why Harris is so reluctant now. Especially, as someone mentioned, if he is less likely to take the MEP spot and is being used as a FG-vote-getter.

I know both Simon Harris and Andrew Doyle personally and I think they are both very decent, very hard-working and very down to earth men. FG wouldn't be a party I'd have any real particular grá for, but as politicians go, I think Doyle and Harris are two of the better ones in the Dáil.

Can't see the Brady taking a seat in a by-election, too tall an order.

You reckon? I think considering how close he ran Stephen Donnelly in 2011, I think he'd definitely get in this time out. Looking through the potential roster for opponents, there are none that strike me as overly threatening. Brady has a HUGE base of support in the north of Wicklow. Brady's colleague in Rathnew, John Snell, would be absolutely crucial in getting the vote out in the southern parts of the county and quite possibly would do so.

Looking over potential opponents to Brady in the potential by-election:

FF: Pat Casey, possibly Grant or Fitzgerald.

FG: Glynn, Bourke, Ryan, Winters, Earls

Lab: McManus, O'Brien (maybe)

I don't think another independent or anyone else from another party would get close. Potentially have a spoiler effect, but other than that.

One thing that will go against Brady in a big way is Sinn Féin's transfer toxicity. That's what cost him big time in 2011. He was ahead of Stephen Donnelly until the 17th Count. Donnelly received sufficient transfers to overtake Brady and be elected by a margin of 112 votes on the 19th Count. If Sinn Féin were not so toxic in terms of transfers, Brady would have been elected in 2011. As it was, Donnelly received just enough transfers to see him over the line ahead of Brady.

BlutendeRabe

DazMarz wrote: »

FF's front runner would have to be Pat Casey. Highest profile councillor in Wicklow for FF at the moment and one of the more popular ones.

Mick Glynn is getting a good bit of flak at the moment from comments he made against John Brady regarding clean-ups of drug infested areas in Bray. The popular opinion, especially amongst certain areas in Bray and North Wicklow has swung against Glynn in recent days and in favour of Brady.

I had never heard that FG made their European candidates stump up €100,000. Can understand why Harris is so reluctant now. Especially, as someone mentioned, if he is less likely to take the MEP spot and is being used as a FG-vote-getter.

I know both Simon Harris and Andrew Doyle personally and I think they are both very decent, very hard-working and very down to earth men. FG wouldn't be a party I'd have any real particular grá for, but as politicians go, I think Doyle and Harris are two of the better ones in the Dáil.



You reckon? I think considering how close he ran Stephen Donnelly in 2011, I think he'd definitely get in this time out. Looking through the potential roster for opponents, there are none that strike me as overly threatening. Brady has a HUGE base of support in the north of Wicklow. Brady's colleague in Rathnew, John Snell, would be absolutely crucial in getting the vote out in the southern parts of the county and quite possibly would do so.

Looking over potential opponents to Brady in the potential by-election:

FF: Pat Casey, possibly Grant or Fitzgerald.

FG: Glynn, Bourke, Ryan, Winters, Earls

Lab: McManus, O'Brien (maybe)

I don't think another independent or anyone else from another party would get close. Potentially have a spoiler effect, but other than that.

One thing that will go against Brady in a big way is Sinn Féin's transfer toxicity. That's what cost him big time in 2011. He was ahead of Stephen Donnelly until the 17th Count. Donnelly received sufficient transfers to overtake Brady and be elected by a margin of 112 votes on the 19th Count. If Sinn Féin were not so toxic in terms of transfers, Brady would have been elected in 2011. As it was, Donnelly received just enough transfers to see him over the line ahead of Brady.

In a GE, the quota is roughly 16.5% of the FPV. In a by-election, its 50%. Unless he really gets out the vote and picks up votes in other parts of the county it's a tall order. Depends though on the caliber of the other candidates.

Annasopra

I dunno. FF might take a huge risk and go for Taragh Hanley. They will need women candidates badly throughout the country in 2016.

I didn't really know what the story with Glynn and Brady was. Seems like it will completely blow over and be forgotten about.

Harry Angstrom

Does anyone really care about the European Parliament? At the end of the day, it's only a talking shop. A lot of Irish people couldn't even name their MEP. Seems like a lot of fuss about nothing, apart from being a monetary gravy train for the elected MEP.

spank_inferno

I suppose the vast majority of people don't care, but that is not to say it is not very important.

Also the gravy train point can be argued for any parliament in the world.
The vast majority of members will always just be vote button jockies.

View

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Does anyone really care about the European Parliament? At the end of the day, it's only a talking shop.

The EP isn't a talking shop. Its role has been progressively upgraded over the years and it now has the same powers as the Council of Ministers in almost but not all areas (Foreign policy being the major exception).

The two bodies between them determine the legislation and content thereof that the EU adopts and unless you are of the opinion that legislation is unimportant then yes the elections do matter.

Harry Angstrom

View wrote: »

The EP isn't a talking shop. Its role has been progressively upgraded over the years and it now has the same powers as the Council of Ministers in almost but not all areas (Foreign policy being the major exception).

The two bodies between them determine the legislation and content thereof that the EU adopts and unless you are of the opinion that legislation is unimportant then yes the elections do matter.

It still plays a very poor second fiddle to the European Commission. They still call the shots. The Parliament is nothing more than an overbloated bureaucracy.

View

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It still plays a very poor second fiddle to the European Commission. They still call the shots. The Parliament is nothing more than an overbloated bureaucracy.

Again this is wrong.

It is Parliament (almost always) and the Council of Ministers who decide what legislation and the content thereof the EU adopts or does not. They have (near) co-equal powers.

It is the member states who have decided it to be so, so lodge any complaints about the powers of the EP with them.

spank_inferno

Looks like Harris is taking the plunge.

Annasopra

spank_inferno wrote: »

Looks like Harris is taking the plunge.

Didn't expect that. Sources from FG and National newspapers told me it was more likely to be Andrew Doyle.

BillyByrne

DazMarz wrote: »

The rumour of Simon Harris (FG, Wicklow) taking the nomination to be a candidate in May's European Elections is gathering a lot of speed. Following the bowing out of many front-runners for the FG nod, Harris is now pretty front-and-centre for FG to run in the South constituency.

On the ball DazMarz! I just googled Harris and Europe when I heard the news and this thread showed up. You had the inside track about a week ago!

DazMarz wrote: »

Andrew Doyle, TD, would also be allegedly made a minister should Harris run and win for Europe.

All sorts of promises made i'm sure.

DazMarz wrote: »

Personally, I feel Harris would quite possibly win a seat in Brussels in May. But would Fine Gael be able to win the seat in the by-election? I'm not so sure.

Not so sure about part 1. I thought Doyle would have a much better appeal across Leinster. As Nessa Childers and Phil Prendergast proved you don't need to speak during a Euro Election. No one is listening. Everyone is obsessed with their own local election. To get elected to Europe you just need a poster campaign. As such Doyle presents a more generic Leinster man image that would have also appealed to rural FF voters.
As for part 2, if there is a by-election, FG would win it.

DazMarz wrote: »

Yes, they are very well positioned in Wicklow, with several very good and high-profile councillors; Mick Glynn, Sylvester Bourke, John Ryan and Irene Winters would all possibly fancy their chances.

Agreed. Glynn if best placed to fill the void left by Harris. Of the others you mention I'd see Winters as the most credible candidate but she shares the same base as Andrew Doyle. Basically, the FGers would be mad unless they choose someone from Bray/Greystones. They might have to run a second candidate in the South to shore up that vote . Vincent Blake?

DazMarz wrote: »

Fianna Fáil would also love to win back "their" seat that they lost in 2011 . Pat Casey ...... would be the most likely to run, though whispers of a new candidate coming through have been doing the rounds.

Yeah they'd love to win a seat but will it happen? I doubt it. That Dick Roche lad has left a scar in the psyche of Wicklow people. Who are these whispers about??

DazMarz wrote: »

Labour have mooted Ronan McManus (son of Liz) to stand.

To be blunt. No chance. Labour should aim the beat the DDI this time out. I think their new party leader lives in Wicklow, Jan Van de Ven.

DazMarz wrote: »

However, if there was to be a by-election, I would seriously think that John Brady of Sinn Féin would take the seat. ......... Brady is a very popular man in Wicklow, he has the anger against the Big 3 behind him.......... If he doesn't, I'd nearly have him nailed on as a cert in 2016.

Part 1: Brady wont take the seat. not enough popular votes or transfers
Part 2: Brady popular? True for 15% of voters. Equally unpopular with over 50% I reckon.
Part 3 : Agreed. Nailed on cert for seat in 2016.

DazMarz wrote: »

What say you? Who would potentially gain from Fine Gael's potential loss? Would Fine Gael be able to get one of their councillors in, or would this be the opportunity that Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil were waiting for?

I can't look past any FG candidate. Who they pick is crystal ball stuff. They never seem to pick the obvious choice!

cnoc

Any TD or Senator running for Europe should resign their Oireachtas seat. They see a bigger gravy train in Europe, but still will not give up their local one. What "promises" will they now proffer to the people, especially that "promises" are something you say during an election!

DazMarz

It was rumoured for a long time that he'd do it. Confirmed today.

Probably only being used as a vote-getter for Fine Gael at the end of it, but it'd be very interesting if he took a seat. He's fairly high-profile, being on the PAC and all, but might not just swing it enough. Remains to be seen.

A most interesting few months coming up now. Very interesting indeed. Especially seeing as yours truly will be in the thick of it (for the local elections!). Can't wait to see how things pan out.

Of course, the Wicklow by-election will only emerge if Harris is successful in capturing a European seat.

Annasopra

I think Andrew Doyle would have had a broader appeal in Leinster.

Simon won't attract the fg farmer vote in the same way.

I'm not convinced he will take a seat.

Harry Angstrom

It must be a great novelty for Joe Costello's wife to be actually campaigning for an election this time, considering she was co-opted on to Dublin City Council and then she was co-opted to take Frank Ross's MEP seat. She'll get hammered in May, but chances are that Joe will probably take her on as his Dail assistant after that.....

spank_inferno

mango salsa wrote: »

I think Andrew Doyle would have had a broader appeal in Leinster.

Simon won't attract the fg farmer vote in the same way.

I'm not convinced he will take a seat.

How many FG farmers are there?
Like wondering how the FF shop assistant demographic will vote.

I'm not sure Harris is in it to win.

He could be a useful 2nd preference catcher for the 2 main FG candidates who now have to think about the new counties lumped into their constituency.

Harry Angstrom

spank_inferno wrote: »

How many FG farmers are there?
Like wondering how the FF shop assistant demographic will vote.

I'm not sure Harris is in it to win.

He could be a useful 2nd preference catcher for the 2 main FG candidates who now have to think about the new counties lumped into their constituency.

Simon Harris is being sold down the river by the Fine Gael central office spin doctors. I don't believe for a minute that he'd want to run for the useless pointless European Parliament, just the same as Brian Hayes.

View

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It must be a great novelty for Joe Costello's wife to be actually campaigning for an election this time, considering she was co-opted on to Dublin City Council and then she was co-opted to take Frank Ross's MEP seat. She'll get hammered in May, but chances are that Joe will probably take her on as his Dail assistant after that.....

Emer Costello was not co-opted to replace Proinsias De Rossa.

Under our - to my mind - horrible electoral hybrid system used for EP elections, she like all other replacement candidates was listed together with their respective main candidate, so anyone giving a mandate to a main candidate also gives simultaneously a mandate to their specified replacements.

Had the electorate a problem with Emer C being one of PdeR's replacements, they were free not to vote for the combined (PdeR + named replacements) ticket.

MouseTail

This can't be right? Shane Byrne being approached by Fine Gael? Their people must be furious!
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/now-fg-lines-up-exrugby-star-shane-byrne-30049062.html

Harry Angstrom

MouseTail wrote: »

This can't be right? Shane Byrne being approached by Fine Gael? Their people must be furious!
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/now-fg-lines-up-exrugby-star-shane-byrne-30049062.html

It's open season for Fine Gael. If they can sign up Kenny Egan, they can sign up anybody. I hope the electorate will see through this bullsh!t.

Harry Angstrom

View wrote: »

Emer Costello was not co-opted to replace Proinsias De Rossa.

Under our - to my mind - horrible electoral hybrid system used for EP elections, she like all other replacement candidates was listed together with their respective main candidate, so anyone giving a mandate to a main candidate also gives simultaneously a mandate to their specified replacements.

Had the electorate a problem with Emer C being one of PdeR's replacements, they were free not to vote for the combined (PdeR + named replacements) ticket.

She's had an easy ride throughout her political "career". She'll get a rude awakening in May. Hopefully her husband will be out of a job as well in 2016, although he'll probably bail out and retire on his nice cosy pension rather than suffering the ignominy of losing his seat.

goose2005

FTA69 wrote: »

Jesus what a fright. I saw the thread title and thought of Eoghan Harris immediately.

I was hoping he'd run and lose. The bitterness would be so strong that he'd just dissolve in it

Annasopra

MouseTail wrote: »

This can't be right? Shane Byrne being approached by Fine Gael? Their people must be furious!
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/now-fg-lines-up-exrugby-star-shane-byrne-30049062.html

Bizarre but then it is less contentious if long term Harris comes back. TBH I think Harris has long term ambitions to be in Enda Kennys job and I think sidestepping might not be a good idea toward achieving that ambition.

jmayo

MouseTail wrote: »

This can't be right? Shane Byrne being approached by Fine Gael? Their people must be furious!
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/now-fg-lines-up-exrugby-star-shane-byrne-30049062.html

Well they have now taken over as the party of choice for GAA men what with John O'Mahony, Sean Kelly, Peter Fitzpatrick, graham geraghty.
Granted the successful ones are from the managerial front rather than the player front.
They might as well start taking other sports.
I half expected some other rugby heads to be coopted into the party.

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Bizarre but then it is less contentious if long term Harris comes back. TBH I think Harris has long term ambitions to be in Enda Kennys job and I think sidestepping might not be a good idea toward achieving that ambition.

If I was to bet on future leaders I would say the two Simons.
At this stage they stand out.
Oh and anyone that thinks looney lucinda has any chance now is smokin some weird sh**.

MouseTail

jmayo wrote: »

If I was to bet on future leaders I would say the two Simons.
At this stage they stand out.
Oh and anyone that thinks looney lucinda has any chance now is smokin some weird sh**.

I would take that bet too. I know many people not voting for Harris as they want to keep him here. He is very well got, and whilst not my colours, I have dealt extensively with him, and he is very likeable, effective and straight ime.