Haydock Grand National Trial

Nulty

Looking through this race now and I'm seeing a bit of a stat.

This is the last 3 runs from the past ten winners of this:

111
212
107
512
651
U21
271
613
151
451

Apart from Silver By Natures second win, every one of them finished in the first three.

6 first, 2 seconds and a third.

Going by that stat, only Well Refreshed (9/1) as a past winner and Monbeg Dude (7/1), Across The Bay (12/1), Wychwoods Brook (11/1), Emperor´s Choice (16/1), Hawkes Point (8/1) and Merry King (12/1) can win.

Another way of looking at it is that they all won one of their last 3 races.

That rules Godsmejudge, Sydney Paget and Nuts n Bolts in and Merry King out.

Interesting

tomaussie

Nulty wrote: »

Looking through this race now and I'm seeing a bit of a stat.

This is the last 3 runs from the past ten winners of this:

111
212
107
512
651
U21
271
613
151
451

Apart from Silver By Natures second win, every one of them finished in the first three.

6 first, 2 seconds and a third.

Going by that stat, only Well Refreshed (9/1) as a past winner and Monbeg Dude (7/1), Across The Bay (12/1), Wychwoods Brook (11/1), Emperor´s Choice (16/1), Hawkes Point (8/1) and Merry King (12/1) can win.

Another way of looking at it is that they all won one of their last 3 races.

That rules Godsmejudge, Sydney Paget and Nuts n Bolts in and Merry King out.

Interesting

Do you have all the ten year trends ?

dicky dunne

If the ground turns up heavy which I presume it will I'll be all over across the bay

Bangor Billy

I live 20 miles from the course and I think you can guarantee the ground will be heavy. In fact I expect it will have to pass an inspection for racing to be on.

Nulty

I don't have full trends but racecaller normally has then somewhere on the net.

They're due a **** load of rain during the week so it'll be a swamp.

UrbanSea

Merry King is very tempting. Look how strongly he finished off his race the last day, amazed he got up to place

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

I don't have full trends but racecaller normally has then somewhere on the net.

They're due a **** load of rain during the week so it'll be a swamp.

http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/haydock-grand-national-trial-trends-2014-1392081734

tomaussie

Nulty wrote: »

http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/haydock-grand-national-trial-trends-2014-1392081734

Wow. Is hard to rule out even a small bunch of the runners based on the trends.

Usually I've been able to put a line through as much as ¾'s or even 4/5's of the field on some basic trends but finding it hard to rule out even a hand-full this time round.

It's mental. Every time I think I've found something the next one I look at is just as plausible a winner.

I'm out. Maybe I'll pick something at the very bottom of the weights, maybe whichever one Venetia leaves in.

Can anybody advise me if there is a trainer to avoid currently regarding form or alternatively one to follow due to current form ?

tomaussie

Further to the above I've decided its down to EMPEROR'S CHOICE, NUTS 'n BOLTS and LOCH BA.

EMPEROR'S to win and rfc's with the other two selections.

I can't imagine the Grand National being this competitive.

Nulty

tomaussie wrote: »

Further to the above I've decided its down to EMPEROR'S CHOICE, NUTS 'n BOLTS and LOCH BA.

EMPEROR'S to win and rfc's with the other two selections.

I can't imagine the Grand National being this competitive.

Nuts N Bolts and Loch Ba are the two I have a thing for here too. I'm not sure what a good idea it is, won't be betting a lot on them. To be honest, I think Hawkes Point is the most logical winner, he probably still has the beating of Merry King from their Chepstow form but it will be closer.

Its a bit of a nightmare race though.

Nulty

Monbeg Dude out.

Hope you got on. Field is down to 14 runners and only 3 places.

UrbanSea

Tried to have 25 on Merry King there and Apollo won't accept it my first ever bet with them :rolleyes:

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Tried to have 25 on Merry King there and Apollo won't accept it my first ever bet with them :rolleyes:

They look like a rebranded Paddy Power

UrbanSea

They're the same as Boyles. Won't give me a euro on it

UrbanSea

Backed Merry King with VC. Hadn't realized AP is on him

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

Wow. Is hard to rule out even a small bunch of the runners based on the trends.

Usually I've been able to put a line through as much as ¾'s or even 4/5's of the field on some basic trends but finding it hard to rule out even a hand-full this time round.

It's mental. Every time I think I've found something the next one I look at is just as plausible a winner.

I'm out. Maybe I'll pick something at the very bottom of the weights, maybe whichever one Venetia leaves in.

Can anybody advise me if there is a trainer to avoid currently regarding form or alternatively one to follow due to current form ?

Went for the wrong one. Thought a year off would be too much to ask in that bog.

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

Further to the above I've decided its down to EMPEROR'S CHOICE, NUTS 'n BOLTS and LOCH BA.

EMPEROR'S to win and rfc's with the other two selections.

I can't imagine the Grand National being this competitive.

Ah man. Can't get back to sleep.

Woke up at 04.30am and had a quick look at sporting life results on me phone whilst having a p*ss.

I read the results from the bottom of the page up to add a bit of excitement and got quite excited to not see any of my selections when i got to the 5th placed horse.

I had combination FC's and TC's (unit stake 10) with the above selections and a very decent EW bet on Emperor's at 8/1. Can't get back to sleep now - not only because they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th but because I follow Aidankkk blind every week but didn't today (except for dan green) as I already had my bet struck.

Didn't think it could win in that ground, over that distance after a 301 days off.

No getting back to sleep now.

Haven't been that close to combination fc's and tc's before.

I"m not crying lads. Just can't f*ckin sleep.

Nulty

tomaussie wrote: »

Ah man. Can't get back to sleep.

Woke up at 04.30am and had a quick look at sporting life results on me phone whilst having a p*ss.

I read the results from the bottom of the page up to add a bit of excitement and got quite excited to not see any of my selections when i got to the 5th placed horse.

I had combination FC's and TC's (unit stake 10) with the above selections and a very decent EW bet on Emperor's at 8/1. Can't get back to sleep now - not only because they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th but because I follow Aidankkk blind every week but didn't today (except for dan green) as I already had my bet struck.

Didn't think it could win in that ground, over that distance after a 301 days off.

No getting back to sleep now.

Haven't been that close to combination fc's and tc's before.

I"m not crying lads. Just can't f*ckin sleep.

Unlucky tom. Good picking all the same.

tomaussie

Nulty wrote: »

Unlucky tom. Good picking all the same.

I wonder what the stable think.

The winner wasn't touched in the market and the runner up looked to be very well backed. Not sure what to make of that.

BumperD

That stable wont lose a wink of sleep. When mon mome won the grand national @100/1 a few years back, every bookie shop inthe uk/irl returned a profit, except the shop closest to that yard.

I remember being done for a large ew double with kayf aramis when ping pong de sivola was caught close home at the festival one yr by another Venetia stablemate.. still hurts to this day.