Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

Antepost Bet Previously Advised

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post Bet

It’s not like me to be bothered putting up ante-post bets, but I’m going to go with a small win bet on Recession Proof in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. He was travelling well last time out when he fell, and I just can’t resist the 25/1 Available in a few places at the moment. He has form on soft and has won a similar race before of the same mark in these conditions albeit a few years ago.

He started well over hurdles and then finished 5th in what must be the most ridiculous Supreme Hurdle ever in terms of future form. Of the 4 in front only Spirit Son hasn’t proved to be absolutely top class (only because he won 1 more race and hasn’t been seen since). The others are Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Recession Proof finished in the lead group 7 lengths clear of a couple of other good yardsticks and that form would simply cruise this race with 10:08 on his back. Obviously he may never reach that peak again but he won’t need to here and I saw enough in his last run to make 25/1 Tempting. He does need to get over what looked a heavy enough fall, but all that is built into the price and I can see him being backed down to more like 12/1 on the day and id be raging if I hadn’t a point on at 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Various


I'm going to place an additional EW bet on Recession Proof now that there is NRNB available with Ladbrokes at the 25/1 I'm looking for.

1pt EW 25/1 Ladbrokes NRNB

jimjamcos

Quinn positive on him too and he's rarely a man to be overly optimistic on the back of two losses. Article on ATR and Sportinglife.

longshotvalue

2:25 Newbury

Walkon is not completely out of this on the terms he is running under today with only 11:00 on his back. My gut feeling is Al Ferof may not be at his best at all on this ground and Walkon has shown a liking for soft ground in the past. His 2nd in the Paul Stewart on soft ground at Cheltenham was decent form in a race that worked out well and he arrives here a fresh horse with only 1 run this year. He also was 2nd at Aintree to the Hennessey winner giving his a stone. 9/1 looks a bit of value given the conditions of the race.

1 Point win 9/1 Various

longshotvalue

Betfair Hurdle Newbury 3:35

I’m going to go with a just in case bet in this on Montbazon. I was looking at him during the week and kept talking myself out of a small bet on him as he’s been of for 2 years and doesn’t really have any record on soft ground but I’d be so annoyed if he ran well now that I have to have a min bet. He was a top class novice 2 years ago and is feasibly weighted on that form. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gave a decent showing here. It does seem a strange introduction after 2 years off.

½ Point EW 28/1 Bet265 5 places.

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

2:25 Newbury

Walkon is not completely out of this on the terms he is running under today with only 11:00 on his back. My gut feeling is Al Ferof may not be at his best at all on this ground and Walkon has shown a liking for soft ground in the past. His 2nd in the Paul Stewart on soft ground at Cheltenham was decent form in a race that worked out well and he arrives here a fresh horse with only 1 run this year. He also was 2nd at Aintree to the Hennessey winner giving his a stone. 9/1 looks a bit of value given the conditions of the race.

1 Point win 9/1 Various

He caught my eye too though King reports that they want to get him to finish in the top 4 to qualify for the National. Didn't sound like he was considering victory.

carpothepunk

Nulty wrote: »

He caught my eye too though King reports that they want to get him to finish in the top 4 to qualify for the National. Didn't sound like he was considering victory.

Yep, he could hack around 100 lengths 4th and still get in. Today isn't the day I wouldn't think.

longshotvalue

carpothepunk wrote: »

Yep, he could hack around 100 lengths 4th and still get in. Today isn't the day I wouldn't think.

Probably not, could be a strange race, and even if he won it may not effect his mark with the conditions of the race..