30th January

rossom

5.00 Meydan

Educate 10/1

Very much looking forward to the return of one of my favourite horses in Educate tomorrow on what will be his Dubai debut for UAE native Ismail Mohammed and I definitely think this 5 year old can leave his mark on the Dubai Carnival. Very progressive last year, he started off last season by winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster off a mark of 88 and ended it with a brilliant victory in the incredibly competitive Cambridgeshire under a big weight off a mark of 104 which has already been franked strongly several times since. With regards to tomorrow's contest, Educate faces his most difficult task to date stepped up into Group 2 Company for the first time and he may well need the run but there is no doubt in my there is more to come from him. William Buick is an eye catching booking with Johnny Murtagh not over in Dubai and he's drawn well in stall 2 which should give him plenty of cover which he'll definitely need. All in all, I'd be more hopeful than confident of Educate's chances tomorrow given that Ismail Mohammed isn't in great form in Dubai at the moment and with another 2 months of the Carnival left I'd be pretty surprised if he was 100% wound up for this. With some very decent horses in opposition, including the race fit favourite Mushreq, Educate will need to put in a career best performance if he is to land this but at 10/1 he's definitely worth a small play. Given that Ismail Mohammed was leading trainer at the Carnival in 2007 with 16 winners, he clearly knows how to campaign his horses to great effect and at the very least I expect to see an encouraging performance from Educate on what I think will turn out to be a very successful campaign in Dubai.

sonnky

Thurles 3.35 Hazariban is interesting at 20.1, last two runs were poor albeit in better company and he came close off 4lbs lower at Punchestown last May. Certainly overpriced.

handsfree

rossom wrote: »

5.00 Meydan

Educate 10/1

Very much looking forward to the return of one of my favourite horses in Educate tomorrow on what will be his Dubai debut for UAE native Ismail Mohammed and I definitely think this 5 year old can leave his mark on the Dubai Carnival. Very progressive last year, he started off last season by winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster off a mark of 88 and ended it with a brilliant victory in the incredibly competitive Cambridgeshire under a big weight off a mark of 104 which has already been franked strongly several times since. With regards to tomorrow's contest, Educate faces his most difficult task to date stepped up into Group 2 Company for the first time and he may well need the run but there is no doubt in my there is more to come from him. William Buick is an eye catching booking with Johnny Murtagh not over in Dubai and he's drawn well in stall 2 which should give him plenty of cover which he'll definitely need. All in all, I'd be more hopeful than confident of Educate's chances tomorrow given that Ismail Mohammed isn't in great form in Dubai at the moment and with another 2 months of the Carnival left I'd be pretty surprised if he was 100% wound up for this. With some very decent horses in opposition, including the race fit favourite Mushreq, Educate will need to put in a career best performance if he is to land this but at 10/1 he's definitely worth a small play. Given that Ismail Mohammed was leading trainer at the Carnival in 2007 with 16 winners, he clearly knows how to campaign his horses to great effect and at the very least I expect to see an encouraging performance from Educate on what I think will turn out to be a very successful campaign in Dubai.

I'll be on this!

ste2010

Did someone mention something about Harry Kelly's horse running tomorrow. About an assumption being made that Harry kelly was to release a beast between last week and this week..everyone thought it was kilburry at leopardstown or something along those lines and someone else mentioned the real beast would be unleashed this week..is that the one in the bumper tomorrow?

hawkhead

Surely Mireya (7/2) should be winning the 3-35 at Thurles tomorrow. Third last time out only beaten 5 lengths by Gilgamboa when never put in the race under one of the most suspicious rides I have seen in a long time, the horse travelled sweetly all the way around and was never asked for any sort of an effort until after the last hurdle when the front two were long gone.
Under a more positive ride I expect this one to do the business tomorrow

BumperD

ste2010 wrote: »

Did someone mention something about Harry Kelly's horse running tomorrow. About an assumption being made that Harry kelly was to release a beast between last week and this week..everyone thought it was kilburry at leopardstown or something along those lines and someone else mentioned the real beast would be unleashed this week..is that the one in the bumper tomorrow?

It was sting or nevis

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

Did someone mention something about Harry Kelly's horse running tomorrow. About an assumption being made that Harry kelly was to release a beast between last week and this week..everyone thought it was kilburry at leopardstown or something along those lines and someone else mentioned the real beast would be unleashed this week..is that the one in the bumper tomorrow?

It was Nevis.

He said it was a newcomer and Ballintotty Boy has already had a run so this won't be it. I do think Ballintotty Boy will run a good race tomorrow, for all it looks like a tricky contest.

rossom

Surely 2.00 Southwell Gebayl 20/1 is worth backing purely from a back to lay perspective. Priced up at 20s with Bet365, this is in stark contrast to other bookies who go no bigger than 7/1 and it seems inevitable that the horse is going to start a single figure price. Additionally, this 4 year old doesn't look a forlorn hope either off a mark of 57 on her first start for Roger Ingram. When with James Tate, she showed some excellent course form with a record of 2-2-2-1 which included a nose 2nd off a mark of 60 to Apache Rising who is now rated 17lb higher having scored comfortably at Southwell twice subsequently, a 2nd behind the higher rated Fraserburgh, 2nd behind the well handicapped Ivy Port before winning a very poor Maiden and its clear that she acts very well on Southwell's fibresand. Having left James Tate, Gebayl had 3 utterly abysmal starts for Olivia Maylam which have seen her fall to a career low mark of 57. If the switch of stable, 91 day break, the application of a first time tongue tie and return to Southwell's fibresand see her return to form then she could run a huge race here. I've had a decent bet on at Bet365 as they have completely priced her up wrong at 20/1 and I fully intend to lay off my bet for what is hopefully a lovely free bet. I wouldn't be anything other than hopeful but I'd be utterly stunned if I can't lay my bet off at a single figure price.

UrbanSea

Wasn't going to have a bet but 9/4 Certify too appealing

Gringo180

Trade Storm in the 5.00 at Meydan looks over priced 8/1. He has been running in much better races than this the past year and acquitted himself very well, my only worry would be whether or not he will be race fit. Worth the risk for me.

BumperD

hawkhead wrote: »

Surely Mireya (7/2) should be winning the 3-35 at Thurles tomorrow. Third last time out only beaten 5 lengths by Gilgamboa when never put in the race under one of the most suspicious rides I have seen in a long time, the horse travelled sweetly all the way around and was never asked for any sort of an effort until after the last hurdle when the front two were long gone.
Under a more positive ride I expect this one to do the business tomorrow

Agree with you on mireya, she only gets going late so hopefully this extra 2f is a help, doubled her with measureofmydreams for small bet. If they win, will have some extra ammo for Saturday.

byronbay2

BumperD wrote: »

Agree with you on mireya, she only gets going late so hopefully this extra 2f is a help, doubled her with measureofmydreams for small bet. If they win, will have some extra ammo for Saturday.

Big drift on Mireya before the off - out to 7.2 on BF.

racso1975

Have to say i fancy caitlin brook in the next in thurles

edit: Never ever ever listen to my fancies

hawkhead

byronbay2 wrote: »

Big drift on Mireya before the off - out to 7.2 on BF.

That and the fact that they came for JP's had me worried before the off.

The horse ran an ok race just didnt pick up when asked.

battser

Pretty decent drift on bet365 for Educate. Any ideas Rossom?

Francie Barrett

battser wrote: »

Pretty decent drift on bet365 for Educate. Any ideas Rossom?

Betting at Meydan is often very erratic, I wouldn't be too concerned.

racso1975

problem with some of the stalls no opening. Needs to be re run after check on the stalls and horses

rossom

Quite happy with Educate's Dubai debut. The false start wouldn't have done him any favours as he is a bit of a buzzy horse and the race wouldn't have been ideal as there wasn't an awful lot of early pace. In light of the pace, Buick made a conscious effort to let him stride on closer to the pace as opposed to holding him up and I definitely saw on at least one occasion that he pulled. Finished a credible 6th and with the market drift suggesting he wasn't going to be competitive I thought he would definitely come on for the run so that should put him spot on for his next outing and no way was today his primary target.

BorneTobyWilde

Thane of Cawdor 11-2
Me like ew . Down a few pounds, can improve from last time