Dublin City Bubble - discussion of properties in D1, D2, D3, D7 & D8

Bepolite

Hi folks,

I'm having a read of a few reports which seems to indicate a bubble forming in Dublin city (1/2/3/7/8) I wondered what other people's views where on this? The issue imo is pressure from apartment dwellers trying to make the jump to a house. The price increases seem to be on the sub €200,000 market.

I know this topic has been done to death in other threads but most of them are full of a lot of South Co. Dublin is where everyone should live and Tallaght is generally on fire most of the time. Can we please avoid any discussion outside of the listed postcodes, that includes no discussion Dublin 4.

Apologies if this seems like backseat modding that is not my intention, I just want to clearly define the parameters of the discussion, stating what is and what is no on topic at the very beginning.

Bepolite

First thing I'm curious about but I welcome all feedback (On topic) is NAMA sales are expected to depress prices. Is this likely to happen this year?

What about repossessions I don't think we're likely to see much movement on these. It doesn't pay to turf people out of their family home and take back buy to let in many areas doesn't make much sense either.

Mr.McLovin

Bepolite wrote: »

Tallaght is generally on fire most of the time.

Best buy one now then before they're all gone

beauf

You might be better getting a mod to make your thread title more meaningful, specific.

Though asking will Nama depress prices in specific areas is both too general and too specific a question. IMO.

Theres already a thread about Nama, and local prices maybe be influenced more by local issues, location etc than Nama.

Bepolite

beauf wrote: »

You might be better getting a mod to make your thread title more meaningful, specific.

Though asking will Nama depress prices in specific areas is both too general and too specific a question. IMO.

Theres already a thread about Nama, and local prices maybe be influenced more by local issues, location etc than Nama.

Done - Thank you Morrigan.

hfallada

The last census indicated there was very few unoccupied properties in Dublin. So I imagine there isnt a significant amount of nama properties in the city. I know someone who just brought a nama apartment in the ifsc,so they have started selling them. But I can't imagine it will have a massive impact on prices

moxin

Bepolite wrote: »

I'm having a read of a few reports which seems to indicate a bubble forming in Dublin city (1/2/3/7/8) I wondered what other people's views where on this? The issue imo is pressure from apartment dwellers trying to make the jump to a house. The price increases seem to be on the sub €200,000 market.

Do you mean renters moving to buying? I can't see owner occupiers of apartments jumping unless they rent out their unit first due to negative equity. Remember cash buyers are dominating, those apt dwellers must have serious cash in the bank.

From your postcodes, houses in the sub 200k range seem to be the likes of Stoneybatter or salubrious areas. Can't think of where in D2 are therre houses for sub 200k?
Last month I had a look online out of curiosity at Stoneybatter, the houses offered in the adverts were in dire shape, more like builder's jobs.

beauf

Why would someone want to live D1/2 or 7/8. Very different no?

Bepolite

moxin wrote: »

Do you mean renters moving to buying? I can't see owner occupiers of apartments jumping unless they rent out their unit first due to negative equity. Remember cash buyers are dominating, those apt dwellers must have serious cash in the bank.

Apartmenst in the city in certain areas rent at the drop of a hat. An apartment is probably going to be in 100K neg equity which means you only need approval for 300-350K to get something in the city.

moxin wrote: »

From your postcodes, houses in the sub 200k range seem to be the likes of Stoneybatter or salubrious areas. Can't think of where in D2 are therre houses for sub 200k?
Last month I had a look online out of curiosity at Stoneybatter, the houses offered in the adverts were in dire shape, more like builder's jobs.

Stoneybatter is a grand area these days, it's developing it's own character, give it a few years it will be more desirable. The issue is stock as you point out of course. 250K gets you this.

beauf wrote: »

Why would someone want to live D1/2 or 7/8. Very different no?

D1 and D7 back on to each other as does D3 to be fair these are quite different to D8 in some respects. D2, there is the occasional place but not much in there at sub 200K.

MouseTail

There are rises certainly, but i wouldn't call it a bubble, or even the start of a bubble, that appears very premature. There is still value by metrics such as rental yield.
2016 or si might be a different story, but not all rising markets = bubbles.

Bepolite

No of course not but it does seem that Dublin City is moving much quicker than everywhere else. Do you think it's more of a fast initial movement?

McDook

Bepolite wrote: »

250K gets you this.

A friend of mine bought one of them about a year ago. He gets very good rent, but my god it is small.
Shoebox would be too generous to describe it.
Amazing what a wide angle lens will do.

McDook

And why does everyone assume any price rise is a bubble.
That word is used far too often these days.

McDook

Bepolite wrote: »

No of course not but it does seem that Dublin City is moving much quicker than everywhere else. Do you think it's more of a fast initial movement?

Dublin is where most people wants/needs to be for work etc, so now that people are buying it will be mostly in Dublin.
Eventually, when people cant afford the rising prices they will slowly but surely move further out from Dublin, bringing prices up there, but probably not far.

I know people who live down the country and work in Dublin. they dont want to sell their house and renting or driving is too expensive, so they bought an apartment in Dublin and stay there when working during the week. They are saving a packet and lots of time, compared to commuting or renting.

Shane732

hfallada wrote: »

The last census indicated there was very few unoccupied properties in Dublin. So I imagine there isnt a significant amount of nama properties in the city. I know someone who just brought a nama apartment in the ifsc,so they have started selling them. But I can't imagine it will have a massive impact on prices

What?! NAMA had 10,000 residential units in Dublin as of mid last year didn't they?

IMO NAMA and the banks have complete control of the market. By drip feeding properties on to the market they can keep supply low.

Shane732

McDook wrote: »

A friend of mine bought one of them about a year ago. He gets very good rent, but my god it is small.
Shoebox would be too generous to describe it.
Amazing what a wide angle lens will do.

480 sq ft!!!

McDook

Shane732 wrote: »

480 sq ft!!!

Yes, shoebox. 480Sq ft to include living room, kitchen, bathroom, 2 beds.
Isnt even room for a hall in them. The front door opens right into the living room. Most of those have extensions on the back because they need somewhere to fit a toilet. There were none in the houses originally.
And some still dont even have an indoor toilet.
So thats where they get room for a second bedroom too.
That one in the link is only 480sq ft even including the extension.

You should go in and have a look. They are tiny.

You wouldnt park 4 cars in the same space.

irishguy

Shane732 wrote: »

What?! NAMA had 10,000 residential units in Dublin as of mid last year didn't they?

IMO NAMA and the banks have complete control of the market. By drip feeding properties on to the market they can keep supply low.

With very few completed empty ones and a total of 486,000 properties in Dublin. NAMA's influence in dublin residential isn't that big. Dublin city council on there own have 26,875

Shane732

irishguy wrote: »

With very few completed empty ones and a total of 486,000 properties in Dublin. NAMA's influence in dublin residential isn't that big. Dublin city council on there own have 26,875

But the majority of the ones NAMA have are properties that could be sold on the open market and that in time will be sold on the open market. It would be interesting to see how the market would react if NAMA put a reasonable amount of them to the market.

Are the cash buyers there to buy them or would the banks be willing to give the out the credit to buy?

McDook

Shane732 wrote: »

But the majority of the ones NAMA have are properties that could be sold on the open market and that in time will be sold on the open market. It would be interesting to see how the market would react if NAMA put a reasonable amount of them to the market.

Are the cash buyers there to buy them or would the banks be willing to give the out the credit to buy?

Arent NAMA letting a lot of properties too. No need to sell those. Yields would be too good.

I heard someone on the radio last week talking about how they were buying properties for cash, which put them in a good place for bargaining, then refinancing and buying the next for cash and so on as many times as they were happy with. Grand if you have the money.

irishguy

Shane732 wrote: »

But the majority of the ones NAMA have are properties that could be sold on the open market and that in time will be sold on the open market. It would be interesting to see how the market would react if NAMA put a reasonable amount of them to the market.

Are the cash buyers there to buy them or would the banks be willing to give the out the credit to buy?

But the majority are in wholly owned developments. Nama are selling these as let investments to professional investors , who are going to keep letting them out. It's only going to have an impact and sale prices if funds are willing to buy them and they are sold individually. Also how many of the 10000 are left there have been a number of large ones sold off that come to mind. Which account for 15/20% of this there are also lots of smaller sales - what are been handed over for social housing.

I really don't see nama having that big an impact on the whole dublin residential market as they are going to sell most places in blocks to people who are going to continue letting them out. So no increase in actual housing supply.

Bepolite

Thanks guys some great info on NAMA. It seems they are unlikely to depress sale prices in the Dublin City area, but what about rents? The current rents of Dublin City Centre are staggering. McD is right about houses (better described as cottages) being shoe boxes but a 2 bed one in good condition will rent for c. 1300 per month. Does this look like it will change?

Also repossessions, are we likely to see this have an effect on the market, personally I don't think it will, I don't think there is enough volume to be concerned about.

irishguy

Bepolite wrote: »

Thanks guys some great info on NAMA. It seems they are unlikely to depress sale prices in the Dublin City area, but what about rents? The current rents of Dublin City Centre are staggering. McD is right about houses (better described as cottages) being shoe boxes but a 2 bed one in good condition will rent for c. 1300 per month. Does this look like it will change?

Also repossessions, are we likely to see this have an effect on the market, personally I don't think it will, I don't think there is enough volume to be concerned about.

It's even less likely to depress rents as pretty much all the completed properties are already let. So there is going to be no big increase in supply. So rents are going to keep increasing, but possibly nota the current rates.

Shane732

McDook wrote: »

Arent NAMA letting a lot of properties too. No need to sell those. Yields would be too good.

I heard someone on the radio last week talking about how they were buying properties for cash, which put them in a good place for bargaining, then refinancing and buying the next for cash and so on as many times as they were happy with. Grand if you have the money.

Yes, NAMA are renting a lot of properties in Dublin.

Shane732

irishguy wrote: »

But the majority are in wholly owned developments. Nama are selling these as let investments to professional investors , who are going to keep letting them out. It's only going to have an impact and sale prices if funds are willing to buy them and they are sold individually. Also how many of the 10000 are left there have been a number of large ones sold off that come to mind. Which account for 15/20% of this there are also lots of smaller sales - what are been handed over for social housing.

I really don't see nama having that big an impact on the whole dublin residential market as they are going to sell most places in blocks to people who are going to continue letting them out. So no increase in actual housing supply.

I'd say there's still a lot of the 10,000 still in the hands of NAMA.

It's true that a lot of the properties are developments. I suppose the point that I'm trying to make is that there are properties in Dublin which could be sold on an individual basis, which would in turn stablise the Dublin market. NAMA aren't particularly interested in stablising the Dublin market. At the end of the day the stronger the Dublin market is the better the return NAMA gets. 15 months ago an investor would have been looking for a minimum of 10% rental yield. This now down to 7-8%.

The rental market is a different issue. I think the increases in the rental market will continue albeit at a slower pace.

waxon-waxoff

You can include every postcode within the M50 in the bubble debate. One beds at the low end of the market are selling for about 25% over asking. Lots of retired types showing up at viewings, probably looking for a good return on their cash. Theres a real shortage of new properties and what is available turns into a bidding frenzy.

alang184

The rental situation is on meltdown. I've been renting in D3 since 2008. I'm currently looking to move on and have been doing some viewings. This is as bad, if not worse, as how it was in 2007. I remember in viewings back in 2007/2008 where queues of people would be backed out on to the street. It is the exact same situation now; possibly even worse. In a viewing I did today for a 1050e/pm property in D4, the owner said over the last couple of days she has had 120+ emails requesting a viewing.

The bedsit law, which came into effect in Feb last year, is likely to have some impact. But I feel there is something larger at work. Could it be the case that many NAMA-held properties, which were previously out for let, are now no longer let?

I'm noticing on property websites that there has been a sharp increase of 'Weekly' rate properties for rent, which are at premium prices, possibly targeting short-term occupants, businesses or companies, tourists etc. Are these NAMA properties?

McDook

waxon-waxoff wrote: »

You can include every postcode within the M50 in the bubble debate. One beds at the low end of the market are selling for about 25% over asking. Lots of retired types showing up at viewings, probably looking for a good return on their cash. Theres a real shortage of new properties and what is available turns into a bidding frenzy.

10% or more yields are there alright.
Beats the bank. Maybe someone looking to diversify would see it as a good option these days.

Spanish Eyes

It's a self fulfilling prophesy IMV.

If a house Is up for more than it was six months ago, well, let's bubble it up!

My question is, who are getting mortgages? or are cash buyers, or dare I say it...insiders with cash getting the first dibs?

See cash buyers!

Zamboni

The cash won't last forever.
There will be a calming and then an almighty panic.
Falling knives everywhere.
Some savvy folks have gone in early this time around and they will exit by the time the rest of the morons realise they should have left the pension in the bank.