Commodity price predictions

bob charles

bit of Crystal ball stuff. add in more commodities if you so which. Taking todays price as base, where we heading

Milk - down
Cereals - down
Beef - sideways/down
Lamb - sideways
Energy - down allot

Net profit or loss 2014 - sideways

Personally I think our output prices will fall but our input prices will also be well back. Margins to be maintained

kevthegaff

Milk - down after another few good months Cereals - down Beef - sideways/down Lamb - up Energy - down allot fertilliser- down

Timmaay

bob charles wrote: »

Personally I think our output prices will fall but our input prices will also be well back. Margins to be maintained

Feed is well down, but fertilizer and any of the other ones aren't down much. In terms of the profit, like every year, weather is the huge unknown. I've heard of estimates for an average price of 35c/l for milk, if you take the average price in 2013 as say 39cent, so say 4c/l reduction. But that 4c last year was probably well eaten up with extra feed, certainly for most us in the southeast hit by the drought, so here to hoping for 2014 profits to increase :P

hammer73

kevthegaff wrote: »

fertilliser- down

if you are taking todays price as a base i wouldn't agree with that

Birdnuts

On the subject of commodity prices there was 2 interesting pieces on Al Jaazera in the last couple of days focussing on Ukraine and India. In the former case a local expert reckoned that with some investment grain production could rival the US within 10 years. In the case of India which already has the biggest cattle herd on the planet, mechanization and better marketing could see this country being one of the biggest dairy exporting nations on the planet within 10 years. All rather disconcerting for producers here:(

Timmaay

Time to buy a farm over in india so!

poor farmer

Aren't fertilizer and energy prices linked,
Why do ye think energy costs will fall.

Farmer Pudsey

Birdnuts wrote: »

On the subject of commodity prices there was 2 interesting pieces on Al Jaazera in the last couple of days focussing on Ukraine and India. In the former case a local expert reckoned that with some investment grain production could rival the US within 10 years. In the case of India which already has the biggest cattle herd on the planet, mechanization and better marketing could see this country being one of the biggest dairy exporting nations on the planet within 10 years. All rather disconcerting for producers here:(

The important words have been highlighted. Could is like if it stands stiff on a baldy man's quiff.

Energy costs will be the driver for the future. The US economy is expected to improve if this happens energy (mainly oil) will increase. If this happens grain will climb in the next 2-3 years. Yes in the short term we will see cheaper grain however it has not droped to the extent expected.

Milk will go down but not collapse
White meat cheaper
Energy steady
Lamb steady
Beef steady (world market-UK but in Ireland not so sure as it is too easy to manipulate

bob charles

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

The important words have been highlighted. Could is like if it stands stiff on a baldy man's quiff.

Energy costs will be the driver for the future. The US economy is expected to improve if this happens energy (mainly oil) will increase. If this happens grain will climb in the next 2-3 years. Yes in the short term we will see cheaper grain however it has not droped to the extent expected.

Milk will go down but not collapse
White meat cheaper
Energy steady
Lamb steady
Beef steady (world market-UK but in Ireland not so sure as it is too easy to manipulate

energy wise, china eases off, Korea goes nuts and US Fracks the crap out of it. bio ethanol moth balls, protein gets expensive, energy grains get cheaper

Birdnuts

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

The important words have been highlighted. Could is like if it stands stiff on a baldy man's quiff.

There is currently little or mechanization in Indian dairy production. It is a matter of time before modern dairy facilities are introduced such as milking machines etc. and then we will see production go through the roof. The programme hilghted the handfull of facilities in India where this has already happened

Timmaay

Birdnuts wrote: »

There is currently little or mechanization in Indian dairy production. It is a matter of time before modern dairy facilities are introduced such as milking machines etc. and then we will see production go through the roof. The programme hilghted the handfull of facilities in India where this has already happened

The brother in law is Indian and I have to head over sometime with him, I may scope out the countryside, and find myself a nice daughter of an Indian farmer

Birdnuts

Timmaay wrote: »

The brother in law is Indian and I have to head over sometime with him, I may scope out the countryside, and find myself a nice daughter of an Indian farmer

Asian ladies certainly make great wives - or so I'm told;)