Saturday Pricewise

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Expect huge run from legend that is Tidal Bay

Tidal Bay is one amazing racehorse and he can further emphasise what a legend he is by winning the Coral Welsh Grand National (2.35) at Chepstow this afternoon.
Normally the first horse I would cross off in a big handicap would be a nearly 13-year-old top weight, but Tidal Bay is no normal horse and he has a massive class edge on everything else in the
line-up.
This time last year he landed the Lexus Chase, beating horses of the calibre of First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar, and he showed he still retained all his ability when winning over hurdles at the start of this season.
Last time in a speed test at Haydock he was well beaten by Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti, but that was only to be expected on ground not deep enough on such a fast track. Today he will relish being able to take his time in the mud.
It’s interesting everyone is prepared to forgive Bobs Worth for his bad run in the Betfair Chase, while it seems Tidal Bay has been written off for his effort – despite the fact he beat the Gold Cup winner by ten lengths.
According to Racing Post Ratings, two of the best runs of Tidal Bay’s career have been when he has run off top weight in handicaps.
The first came when he won the 2012 bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown by 15 lengths and the second when he was runner-up and conceding weight to Bobs Worth in the 2012 Hennessy.
He can race off a 3lb lower mark than he did at Newbury and there is most definitely nothing of the calibre of Bobs Worth in the line-up.
Given that Paul Nicholls is in such tremendous form, you have to come to the conclusion Tidal Bay is massivley
over-priced at around the 14-1 mark.
Lumping a big weight around will not be easy but Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais both shouldered more than 11st to success and I can’t seen any reason why Tidal Bay won’t be in his element at Chepstow.
Having suggested backing Goonyella a few weeks back, I still rate him as the one to beat, despite his reported nightmare trip over from Ireland.
If he has recovered he will go close as he has amazing reserves of stamina, and his trainer won the race with Notre Pere in 2008.
Of the rest, Merry King is not sure get home and Highland Lodge will have to settle better, while both need to have recovered from a hard race in the Hennessy.
One of the more interesting ones could be Tour Des Champs, who had some good form in the mud last term and has been prepared for today.
Richard Lee won this with Le Beau Bai in 2011 and his Knock A Hand and Mountainous are others on the shortlist, as is Amigo, who won over hurdles on this card 12 months ago.
Over at Leopardstown, it might be significant Nicholls has opted to run Unioniste rather than Tidal Bay in the Lexus Chase (2.55).
Given the conditions Tidal Bay would surely have gone well, but Unioniste is an able substitute as he is improving fast and is a brilliant jumper.
He was impressive against some quick horses at Aintree last time, but he gives the strong impression he will be much better on testing ground, as he showed when hacking up in a handicap at Cheltenham last season.
That form worked out extremely well, and the key to today’s race is that he is going to be spot on, while there are question marks about all the others market leaders.
Bobs Worth ran a shocker at Haydock, Sir Des Champs fell early at Punchestown so is in essence making his seasonal reappearance, while First Lieutenant ran badly at Down Royal last time.
Lord Windermere is certainly not out of it as he had no luck in the Hennessy (Katenko fell directly in front of him), but the ground might have just gone against him.
At Newbury, where the ground is going to be pretty desperate, it might be worth chancing Kaki De La Pree in the Betfred Goals Galore Challow Hurdle (1.45).
He is the outsider but he stays further, relishes testing ground and was impressive in a competitive handicap at Carlisle last time.

Today's bets

Kaki De La Pree
1.45 Newbury
1pt win at 8-1 with Ladbrokes or Paddy Power


Tidal Bay
2.35 Chepstow
1pt win at 14-1 generally


Unioniste
2.55 Leopardstown
1pt win at 6-1 with Boylesports (11-2 generally)


Advised ante-post

Goonyella
2.35 Chepstow
1pt win at 12-1

Amigo
2.35 Chepstow
1pt win at 40-1

finbarrk

Good man. I was thinking of Unioniste myself.