Are golf club committees incapable of change to attract new members?

golfwallah

Talking to the few newer, younger members, who have joined our club in the past few years, the message is coming across that a lot of club committees are out of touch with what it will take to attract 25 – 45 year olds into golf club membership.

This missing generation of golfers from local club membership, is still playing golf but more and more of them are finding cheaper alternatives to full club membership. It’s a case of having to, when faced with the realities of falling income, property taxes, water charges, higher medical insurance, negative equity, etc., etc.

But many on club committees (i.e. the older members who have the time to give) are still focussed on internal norms based on their own experiences when they first joined a club. Times may have been hard for them as well, 10 – 15 years ago, so why change the business model that has been working well up to now? Given family priorities, it’s always been hard to cobble together the money for an annual sub, but it’s a lot more difficult for younger people now, IMO.

Maybe clubs should be more actively talking to their newer members (and their existing ones) to find out how best to recruit replacements for the many leavers and how to retain their existing people? Are they afraid of what they might hear or are they incapable of organising a simple survey or focus group?

It’s not rocket science – weekend timesheets are becoming more congested but there is plenty of spare capacity on weekdays and later in the afternoon at weekends. What’s wrong with filling this spare capacity using imaginative, more affordable, new membership packages? After all, golf course costs tend to be fixed regardless of the numbers playing.

Makes sense to me – but people on committee seem terrified at the prospect.

Webbs

golfwallah wrote: »

Talking to the few newer, younger members, who have joined our club in the past few years, the message is coming across that a lot of club committees are out of touch with what it will take to attract 25 – 45 year olds into golf club membership.

This missing generation of golfers from local club membership, is still playing golf but more and more of them are finding cheaper alternatives to full club membership. It’s a case of having to, when faced with the realities of falling income, property taxes, water charges, higher medical insurance, negative equity, etc., etc.

But many on club committees (i.e. the older members who have the time to give) are still focussed on internal norms based on their own experiences when they first joined a club. Times may have been hard for them as well, 10 – 15 years ago, so why change the business model that has been working well up to now? Given family priorities, it’s always been hard to cobble together the money for an annual sub, but it’s a lot more difficult for younger people now, IMO.

Maybe clubs should be more actively talking to their newer members (and their existing ones) to find out how best to recruit replacements for the many leavers and how to retain their existing people? Are they afraid of what they might hear or are they incapable of organising a simple survey or focus group?

It’s not rocket science – weekend timesheets are becoming more congested but there is plenty of spare capacity on weekdays and later in the afternoon at weekends. What’s wrong with filling this spare capacity using imaginative, more affordable, new membership packages? After all, golf course costs tend to be fixed regardless of the numbers playing.

Makes sense to me – but people on committee seem terrified at the prospect.

What you are suggesting sounds like a means tested membership rate? Unfortunately the current economic conditions have unlike past downturns affected people across the board irrespective of age.

I think that there is definitley scope for clubs to be more imaginative but offering reduced rates etc for the same product will create more problems than it solves.
Being devils advocate for a moment take an example of a club offers a new member rate for the first year and then offers that person a reduced membership when they look to join in year 2. those who have been supporting the club through thick and thin at full membership would not look on this favorably and in the current climate may just move clubs.

John Divney

Those who supported the club surely don't want to see it gradually meander out of existence or it's potential because 20 years ago golf was an exclusive game for the middle class and up, and now it even with lower rates the middle class are struggling and leaving and the younger players have no chance of paying going rates.

We are where we are, there is no room for that sort of thinking if clubs are to survive imo.

billy3sheets

@golfwallah - I think you're being a bit unfair here. It's not as straightforward as your post implies.

Most clubs have 5-day memberships for cheap rates. Most clubs have very cheap opens. Many clubs have "lifestyle" memberships & heavily discounted memberships. Very few clubs have "hello money" or a joining fee any more.

However, the times at which people can or want to play does not equal the total available times on a course. 8-11 on weekends will always be busy. Afternoons mid-week can't be given away for free.

golfwallah

Webbs wrote: »

What you are suggesting sounds like a means tested membership rate? Unfortunately the current economic conditions have unlike past downturns affected people across the board irrespective of age.

I think that there is definitley scope for clubs to be more imaginative but offering reduced rates etc for the same product will create more problems than it solves.
Being devils advocate for a moment take an example of a club offers a new member rate for the first year and then offers that person a reduced membership when they look to join in year 2. those who have been supporting the club through thick and thin at full membership would not look on this favorably and in the current climate may just move clubs.

Er, no, I'm not suggesting means tested membership. What I am suggesting is serious, well researched study of what members and prospective members actually want, as opposed to what people on committee understand what they want from their own limited personal experience.

I'm suggesting putting the customer at the heart of the running of the golf club and taking a long term perspective of what is likely to happen over the next 3 - 5 years.

This is precisely what is recommended in the GUI / PGA / ILGU booklet "Promoting Golf Club Membership". It is also the approach advised by the English & Scottish Golfing Unions.

What you want to avoid is a situation I was told about at the AGM of a neighbouring club, where weekend golf is so congested they have had to start a second 9 hole comp starting on the 10th every Saturday. Having reported a loss of €80K, a member asked if that included the profit of €20K on sale of old equipment. When told that it did, the member said "so that puts the loss on operations at €100K. And with a further 10% membership loss as per EGU average attrition rate, how many new members do we need to recruit to get back to break-even next year and how will be accommodate them at weekends?". Answer from Hon. Secretary: I don't know.

It's up to each club to work out its own situation and bring members along with what they need to do. For example, taking account of spare capacity, you could have Monday & Friday Membership. I've seen Tuesday memberships advertised. You could also have 5 day plus weekend afternoon playing rights (if necessary, without voting rights and limited to one or two years). All that limits you is your imagination and outlining well researched alternatives so that members can see the options clearly.

Certainly beats the alternative of waiting to see which clubs go bust first and hoping to pick up some of the outfall.

golfwallah

billy3sheets wrote: »

@golfwallah - I think you're being a bit unfair here. It's not as straightforward as your post implies.

Most clubs have 5-day memberships for cheap rates. Most clubs have very cheap opens. Many clubs have "lifestyle" memberships & heavily discounted memberships. Very few clubs have "hello money" or a joining fee any more.

However, the times at which people can or want to play does not equal the total available times on a course. 8-11 on weekends will always be busy. Afternoons mid-week can't be given away for free.

I'm not suggesting it's straightforward .... but there's a limit to how much you can put on a boards post and still make it readable.

All, I'm saying is that clubs need to be more imaginative. And, although I'd agree with some of what you said, "lifestyle" and "heavily discounted memberships" are not at all common. Research shows that clubs also need to figure out more ways to fill the "non-busy" hours outside 8 - 11 at weekends and in many cases, mornings and afternoons midweek. Open competitions are not taking place every day of the week in clubs.

Listen, I wouldn't be proposing any of this stuff, if there weren't problems with getting and retaining members. But, clearly, there are a lot of problems and very few solutions coming forward at this point in time.

GreeBo

I think its naive to think that the clubs haven't thought of this tbh.

The problem, as I see it, is that everyone (90%+) wants to play on the same days pretty much around the same times.
In the height of summer its less of an issue, but its very visible in winter, if you only have 18 holes.

You can make all the deals you want for midweek membership, but the reality is that there are very few people who can play golf during the week during daylight hours. Thus you have to make it pretty attractive to them, since they likely wont be playing multiple times per week.

Then you end up with a large discrepancy between what a 5 day pays and a 6/7 day pays, that causes its own issues. Then you have to take voting/membership rights into account.

Finally, say you attract 30 new weekday members at €500 a year...what happens to your societies, outings etc?
Weekdays are when they play, you cant have someone on a 5-day and then tell them they cant get out because tuesday is ladies day, wednesday is the semi-open, thursday and friday are booked with outings....

Golf is mainly a weekend pasttime due to the time it takes and the constraints of working in the modern world, there is just no getting away from that imo.

golfwallah

GreeBo wrote: »

I think its naive to think that the clubs haven't thought of this tbh.

Really? Well then, perhaps, more naivety is required so that people start with a blank page and do their research before drawing conclusions – as opposed to relying on pre-conceived ideas. I’m talking from experience of running a club and bringing in 100 new members in the space of 12 months on a very limited budget during the current recession. This included amongst other things, surveying every existing member professionally (survey guru), working with independent marketing & IT professionals to research the problem, devise a marketing plan and re-design and manage the club website (to achieve highest hit rate of any golf club in the country, according to Google Analytics). And the hardest part – breaking through pre-conceived ideas based on limited anecdotal evidence, like what has been outlined in your post.

The problem, as I see it, is that everyone (90%+) wants to play on the same days pretty much around the same times.
In the height of summer its less of an issue, but its very visible in winter, if you only have 18 holes.

With due respect to your perception, yes there are a lot of people wanting to play weekends at peak times – but that is not the entire market. And it is possible to target the additional 10 - 20% of golfers that would be satisfied with off-peak offerings (research in New Zealand used as the basis for the GUI booklet, “promoting Golf Club Membership”, clearly demonstrates this). For example there are football mums & dads, who can’t play before lunch at weekends. These additional golfers would make a huge difference to the finances of many golf clubs.

Indeed there are plenty of other golfers out there, who are not in clubs, who would play off-peak, given the right packages at the right price levels. Yes, at this stage, the market segments get smaller and require more effort to attract ... but don’t say it can’t be done just because it’s not easy.

You can make all the deals you want for midweek membership, but the reality is that there are very few people who can play golf during the week during daylight hours. Thus you have to make it pretty attractive to them, since they likely wont be playing multiple times per week.

No. This statement is factually incorrect. I ought to know since I play 3 times a week and our 2 midweek competitions attract well over 100 players, even during limited winter daylight. I also make it my business to play with a lot of different people during the week to find out what they are saying and thinking.

Then you end up with a large discrepancy between what a 5 day pays and a 6/7 day pays, that causes its own issues. Then you have to take voting/membership rights into account.

This is just about communications, managing expectations and bringing most of the members along with you. This too can be done (I’ve proved it by doing it).

Finally, say you attract 30 new weekday members at €500 a year...what happens to your societies, outings etc?
Weekdays are when they play, you cant have someone on a 5-day and then tell them they cant get out because tuesday is ladies day, wednesday is the semi-open, thursday and friday are booked with outings....

Your club may be different, but my experience is there so much spare capacity available in off-peak times that there will be little or no trouble in accommodating any new members you bring in. Situations differ from club to club, but based on talking to club captains at functions / meetings and attending GUI AGMs, capacity during the week and on weekend afternoons is not a real problem.

Also, it's always possible to limit yourself by coming up with problems and asking why? The way I look at it is, why limit your horizons by fear of failure. "If you've never failed, you've never tried anything new" - Einstein.

Golf is mainly a weekend pasttime due to the time it takes and the constraints of working in the modern world, there is just no getting away from that imo.

Whatever about your club, in a well established Dublin suburban area, we’ll have to disagree on that as a general point applicable to all clubs.

Russman

One of the big drawbacks with offering "imaginative" deals and membership types to attract new members is that you get a lot of existing members wanting to transfer to the newer, cheaper option because, say, the playing times suit them or the just want to maintain a GUI handicap.

The most any club can stretch to without alienating the existing members is probably a deal in year 1, reverting to full fee in year 2.

We looked into a "1 day Member" category a couple of years ago, where you get a GUI handicap and can play on, say, a Tuesday. But, with a GUI handicap, you then get the invitation singles on a Monday, the invitation singles on a Wednesday, the Open Seniors (if applicable) once a month on a Thursday, and an invitation team event on Bank Holidays, plus any other semi opens or invitations. That's a lot of golf made available for a very small membership sub and some of the older, existing members felt they'd be better off transferring over themselves if it became a reality. We also had a 3 day category but got rid of it 2 years ago as it was potentially going to cost us a lot with existing 5 day or full members wanting to change over. It seems crazy that we're struggling like most other clubs and yet had to get rid of a category. But, what can you do, these are tough times, and everyone has to look after themselves first and foremost.

I don't think that all, or even many, clubs are stuck in some sort of timewarp and are oblivious to the market and current situation. The simple fact is that there are too few golfers for the number of clubs available.

Also depends on whether you view a golf club as a "club" where everyone is in it together, or as a business venture catering for "customers".

golfwallah

Russman wrote: »

One of the big drawbacks with offering "imaginative" deals and membership types to attract new members is that you get a lot of existing members wanting to transfer to the newer, cheaper option because, say, the playing times suit them or the just want to maintain a GUI handicap.

The most any club can stretch to without alienating the existing members is probably a deal in year 1, reverting to full fee in year 2.

We looked into a "1 day Member" category a couple of years ago, where you get a GUI handicap and can play on, say, a Tuesday. But, with a GUI handicap, you then get the invitation singles on a Monday, the invitation singles on a Wednesday, the Open Seniors (if applicable) once a month on a Thursday, and an invitation team event on Bank Holidays, plus any other semi opens or invitations. That's a lot of golf made available for a very small membership sub and some of the older, existing members felt they'd be better off transferring over themselves if it became a reality. We also had a 3 day category but got rid of it 2 years ago as it was potentially going to cost us a lot with existing 5 day or full members wanting to change over. It seems crazy that we're struggling like most other clubs and yet had to get rid of a category. But, what can you do, these are tough times, and everyone has to look after themselves first and foremost.

I don't think that all, or even many, clubs are stuck in some sort of timewarp and are oblivious to the market and current situation. The simple fact is that there are too few golfers for the number of clubs available.

Also depends on whether you view a golf club as a "club" where everyone is in it together, or as a business venture catering for "customers".

I'm not suggesting that a club should limit itself to any particular form of membership, as you seem to be saying. Just that they open themselves up to modern techniques of market research, product development and web and social marketing.

You also have to allow for a certain amount of churn between different membership categories.

This is what is recommended in the GUI booklet "Promoting Golf Club Membership" and put into effect with great success by the likes of Castleknock and Hollystown Golf Clubs. But then, these are both run by professionals, who have demonstrated what can be done by taking in in hundreds of new members by a combination of affordable customer focused packages and price reductions.

Lying down under the excuse that "The simple fact is that there are too few golfers for the number of clubs available", is recipe for failure rather than success.

Moreover, viewing

a golf club as a "club" where everyone is in it together

simply isn't working for many clubs, who need to start on viewing their club "as a business venture catering for "customers", if they want to be around in the years ahead.

Uncle Ben

You started a good post Golfwallah, and I've read and re-read it a few times, however I'm afraid I'm with Russman & Greebo when it boils down to it. Having done my own bit of research today based solely on the GUI website, in the province of Connacht, I can source full membership in any of the clubs ranging from €200 for a 9 hole, to €990 approx. for Galway. Again, having gone through all of the criteria, there are only two clubs who actually charge an entrance fee, and most of the other 18 hole courses are in between the €500 to €800 for full membership, and this would include some of the top of the range such as Ballinrobe,Portumna, Strandhill, Roscommon, or Connemara.

Having looked at a number of clubs within half an hour to 40 mins. drive from my home I came up with another 6 clubs that offer different categories of membership ranging from €100 to €250 and these cover everything from 5/6 day membership, to distance, to student, to beginner etc. Indeed some clubs had almost 10 or 11 different categories and all affiliated to the GUI. Some of these clubs even included the GUI levy in the price of membership.

I then went to the month of July 2013 as an example and found that I could play everyday of the month in most if not all of the courses in Connacht in open day competitions starting at €15 for the likes of Athenry or €25 for Galway Bay and everywhere else in between, Westport, Carrick etc. etc.

My own research would tell me that there is plenty of availability in Connacht for all different categories of golfer, and even in the height of summer there are plenty of venues open at very reasonable prices. Offering continually lower memberships will drag members from one club to another initially, however the following year may also see these same players move 15 km further up the road because that course may be a few €s cheaper. The race to the bottom.

Russman

I take your points, but with the best will in the world, every club is not going to survive. I think its a lot more complex (and in some ways more simple) than market research, marketing etc. These things cost money and a lot of treasurers would be loath to spend precious resources on surveys, while, say, cutting green staff hours.

There's also location, flat vs hilly etc. Plenty of clubs have tried numerous offers and options and are still losing members. We were lucky in my club to get in 65 members this year, but we still lost 100, so a net loss of 35, which doesn't seem so bad. Most of the losses were, in one way or another, recession related. Granted, not all, but most.

Courses like Castleknock have the advantage of being a "modern" type layout built more recently and with green fees & societies in mind (ie buggy paths, modern drainage etc). A lot of the more recent converts to golf got used to playing this type of layout during the good times and much prefer it to older type courses that are predominately member owned and funded. I've no idea who owns Castleknock, its just an example.

Just because its not obvious to you or me, doesn't mean that clubs aren't looking into every possible avenue. Plenty of potentially good ideas are unpalatable (rightly or wrongly) to the members before they get put out to the wider world.

I think you're right in that golf in Ireland is changing and struggling to come to terms with it. Whether the new model is a good thing, well, I remain to be convinced. I think there will always be a place for a member owned club (probably not as many as we have now !)

Russman

Uncle Ben wrote: »

. Offering continually lower memberships will drag members from one club to another initially, however the following year may also see these same players move 15 km further up the road because that course may be a few €s cheaper. The race to the bottom.

That's exactly what's happening, you get a whole segment of golfers who have no real interest in being in a club as such, they just want a regular Saturday game with their mates (which they're quite entitled to want), and they go from deal to deal, year after year. No club can budget accurately with this becoming increasingly prevalent - as soon as your neighbour drops their fees by €100, you'll lose a number to them.

PARlance

I would say Golfwallah has a point, I'm sure there are clubs out there that could do more...
But, how much more they can do and what effect that will have, is the question.

And I'm sorry to say that I don't think that there's something out there that would be a game changer.

As sad as it is to say, 20-30 clubs closing down over the next five years is the most likely way for the golfing market to "normalise".

Golfwallah, fair play for your enthusiasm in this area but I'd have to be a bit more pessimistic about it, clubs should keep trying or start trying to come up with ways out of trouble but there's only so much that can achieve.

Russman

PARlance wrote: »

I would say Golfwallah has a point, I'm sure there are clubs out there that could do more...
But, how much more they can do and what effect that will have, is the question.

And I'm sorry to say that I don't think that there's something out there that would be a game changer.

As sad as it is to say, 20-30 clubs closing down over the next five years is the most likely way for the golfing market to "normalise".

Golfwallah, fair play for your enthusiasm in this area but I'd have to be a bit more pessimistic about it, clubs should keep trying or start trying to come up with ways out of trouble but there's only so much that can achieve.

Absolutely, I'm not knocking the idea that clubs should try all sorts of plans, directions etc. I just don't think there's a silver bullet out there, unfortunately. Until people start to feel secure in their employment and less afraid to spend some disposable income, I fear things will only get worse.
No doubt there are some clubs stuck in the old attitudes, but I think most have woken up to reality by now.

FixdePitchmark

They are amazing prices in the Connacht - you would have to admit there is no real obstacle there for anybody who wants to join a golf club - who is big into their golf. Whilst Dublin has become very competitive and much cheaper - joining a golf club is still priced above joining any other leisure activity club. It means you have to be into golf seriously to ever join a club. I genuinely don't think golf is popular enough in the age group that we are talking about here. And even if plenty of lads play golf in this age range - very few are serious enough to invest in a golf club. And , even more do not have the money in this age bracket.

Say of my close friends - only 3 out of 10 are into golf at all. The others are taking it up. But casual golf and society golf is perfect to meet their needs for the foreseeable future. Of the 3 - only I would have the full interest , invest the money and time to join a golf club. A golf club to meet my needs was still expensive. For example it would be double the price of the of the local gym. This gym has a pool, a gym, tennis courts , a football pitch. + more.

I have to admit - there is room to shake things up. Places will have to get rid of Hello Money (there are only a few remaining) - it is daft and the biggest obstacle to those clubs getting new members. I know this is only a small group of courses. I'd imagine hello money will be gone for all but the top 3 or 4 courses in Dublin.

What Castleknock have offered is very clever. They are saying , you will get the full value of your outlay to the club. I've heard of lads that were life long members of clubs looking at joining. Pay cuts - USC - Proper Tax - Water Charges . There is very little of that "middle class" disposable income that can go on a golf course now. Even at 800 to 1000 + - it is just seen as an unaffordable luxury. These lads were in clubs - but were also in societies . In fact some were going to society golf more than their club. A club makes no sense to them now.

So all a bit negative.

There is an add on the Radio for Carton - It is funny how it has all paned out. People say it was not in NAMA. Grand. But it seems there is a group of courses that may do well out of all this. The top of the range golf facilities offering championship course at a more expensive rate than the local course. It will target a younger man with plenty of disposable income big into their golf. Whilst I've said this is a very small group of people - they will be attracted to the biggest the best. It is understandable - I was young once.

golfwallah

PARlance wrote: »

I would say Golfwallah has a point, I'm sure there are clubs out there that could do more...
But, how much more they can do and what effect that will have, is the question.

And I'm sorry to say that I don't think that there's something out there that would be a game changer.

As sad as it is to say, 20-30 clubs closing down over the next five years is the most likely way for the golfing market to "normalise".

Golfwallah, fair play for your enthusiasm in this area but I'd have to be a bit more pessimistic about it, clubs should keep trying or start trying to come up with ways out of trouble but there's only so much that can achieve.

You are quite right about clubs out there that could do more. And by more, I mean cost reduction, without affecting quality, and service offerings that will result in stemming membership losses. Those that follow that path have a far better chance of survival than those who just say "we need to wait for 20 - 30 clubs to close over the next five years for things to normalise".

In my experience, simply waiting for things to happen, rather than making things happen, is not a good way to win - either a golf match, a football match or in the game of which golf clubs will be left standing when the dust finally clears.

But then, I'm looking at this from personal experience of having been club captain and effective GM of a club, determined that his club will not be one of the ones to go under. The GUI's booklet "Promoting Golf Club Membership" provides a research based road map of survival options to be considered .... as do the websites of the English & Scottish Golfing Unions.

Maybe you have a better insight as regards clubs in your own area but my personal experience in successful member recruitment, cost reduction and improving facilities shows otherwise.

Some people taking on on a lead role on committee might take a passive approach in club survival and hope for the best but, having been through the mill myself, I'd prefer the pro-active approach.

Either way, there are no guarantees but I'd go for giving it my best shot. I'd have to add that my experience is of North Dublin clubs, where competition is quite intense and annual subs are quite high compared to more rural areas (but not quite so high as South Co. Dublin and certain high profile clubs in Wicklow or Kildare).

PARlance

golfwallah wrote: »

You are quite right about clubs out there that could do more. And by more, I mean cost reduction, without affecting quality, and service offerings that will result in stemming membership losses. Those that follow that path have a far better chance of survival than those who just say "we need to wait for 20 - 30 clubs to close over the next five years for things to normalise".

In my experience, simply waiting for things to happen, rather than making things happen, is not a good way to win - either a golf match, a football match or in the game of which golf clubs will be left standing when the dust finally clears.

But then, I'm looking at this from personal experience of having been club captain and effective GM of a club, determined that his club will not be one of the ones to go under. The GUI's booklet "Promoting Golf Club Membership" provides a research based road map of survival options to be considered .... as do the websites of the English & Scottish Golfing Unions.

Maybe you have a better insight as regards clubs in your own area but my personal experience in successful member recruitment, cost reduction and improving facilities shows otherwise.

Some people taking on on a lead role on committee might take a passive approach in club survival and hope for the best but, having been through the mill myself, I'd prefer the pro-active approach.

Either way, there are no guarantees but I'd go for giving it my best shot. I'd have to add that my experience is of North Dublin clubs, where competition is quite intense and annual subs are quite high compared to more rural areas (but not quite so high as South Co. Dublin and certain high profile clubs in Wicklow or Kildare).

I don't think any club should be waiting 5 years and hoping others close down.

What I'm saying is that clubs should try everything possible but even if they do this to the best of their abilility they still may fail.

The reality is that there's an oversupply of course and clubs out there. Until this supply is reduced, best efforts may not be good enough (but that shouldn't stop anyone putting up a fight).

You're looking for some magic wand or some new offering that works to fix the problem. The problem is oversupply. If all clubs figure out this magic offering, then nothing changes. There is still an over supply

golfwallah

PARlance wrote: »

I don't think any club should be waiting 5 years and hoping others close down.

What I'm saying is that clubs should try everything possible but even if they do this to the best of their abilility they still may fail.

The reality is that there's an oversupply of course and clubs out there. Until this supply is reduced, best efforts may not be good enough (but that shouldn't stop anyone putting up a fight).

You're looking for some magic wand or some new offering that works to fix the problem. The problem is oversupply. If all clubs figure out this magic offering, then nothing changes. There is still an over supply

Agreed, oversupply is the main problem and won't be fixed until supply is more balanced with demand.

But, meanwhile, those that put up the best fight have the best chance for survival .... I think we're agreed on that too.

Unfortunately, I've been hearing too much defeatist talk along the lines of "there's nothing we can do ... oversupply and all that" .... and not enough about what we can actually achieve.

And yes - there are no guarantees but that applies to everything in life. It's just that the realities of risk have become much more apparent with the recession. And, unfortunately, there are a lot of rabbits, stuck in the headlights, with no idea of what to do, other than keep going along with the "status quo".