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Percentage

  • 05-12-2013 5:59am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭ dobman88


    So I have been looking for a half season bet for a bit of interest in the soccer after the January window closes. Trouble is I am not very good at studying form or trends or anything like that but one of my mates is and he enjoys doing it recreationally. He doesn't gamble on anything but will often mention something to me and a lot of the time his pedictions are spot on.

    I was thinking of asking him to come up with a bet that would keep us both interested and I would stump up the cash for it, not him. But what percentage should I offer him for doing it (if he agrees of course).

    I was thinking 60/40 in my favour after stake back since I am taking the financial risk.

    But would 50/50 after stake back be fairer seeing how he is the one putting the effort into getting the information for the bet.

    I don't want to screw a mate over but I don't want to lose too much value either. (should the bet actually win)

    Any opinions/advice are appreciated. Cheers


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,546 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    You are being v generous there me thinks.
    You take all the risk, he supplies the selection and you want to go
    50/50 :eek:
    I would have said 20%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    He should get 0%. He is unproven. It is one thing giving you the odd prediction, it's another putting money on it. If he could give you records of 500-1000 predictions that he made after which he came out in profit, then you could think about giving him a percentage. If he could do this, he would still get far less than even 20%!

    But seriously, 0%!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭ dobman88


    Even though I would be asking him to put in some serious effort into his research for a sizeable bet, I still shouldn't be giving him a percentage? Surely he deserves something for his efforts because without his research and predictions there would be no bet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    dobman88 wrote: »
    Even though I would be asking him to put in some serious effort into his research for a sizeable bet, I still shouldn't be giving him a percentage? Surely he deserves something for his efforts because without his research and predictions there would be no bet.

    Of course he does, the lads above are looking at it from a gamblers perspective. It's his work, his thoughts, research and expertise. Personally I don't think its up to you to make an offer of a percentage, its up to him to 'charge' you a fee for the information, but look yer mates I'm sure ye can come to an ameniable agreement that suits both parties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    He's only worth a percentage of your winnings if he has a proven track record, which he does not. I'm not going to be able to get a syndicate to put money on my picks if I can not prove to them that I can match my expected profit in the long run.

    Obviously I don't know much about him or his methods etc etc and he could be brilliant.

    However, as you say, if he is predicting outcomes it's not worth the trouble. A bad tipster will tell you who he thinks will win (good success rate or not), a good tipster accurately predicts the chances of each team winning (you don't tend to hear too much from those!)


    *edit, even if you're the best gambler in the world, in the long run you will not exceed 10% profit. If you are giving away a percentage of your winnings, you are doomed to failure from the outset.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    He's only worth a percentage of your winnings if he has a proven track record, which he does not. I'm not going to be able to get a syndicate to put money on my picks if I can not prove to them that I can match my expected profit in the long run.

    Obviously I don't know much about him or his methods etc etc and he could be brilliant.

    However, as you say, if he is predicting outcomes it's not worth the trouble. A bad tipster will tell you who he thinks will win (good success rate or not), a good tipster accurately predicts the chances of each team winning (you don't tend to hear too much from those!)


    *edit, even if you're the best gambler in the world, in the long run you will not exceed 10% profit. If you are giving away a percentage of your winnings, you are doomed to failure from the outset.

    The OP has already stated that he has eveery confidence in the 'tipsters' methods and that he has a proven track record.

    Not sure where you are getting the 10% figure from its simply not true, many many gamblers exceed this figure, especially when gambling solely on a specialised market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭ dobman88


    The reason I wanted to give him a % was to reward him for his efforts should the bet come in. We are good mates after all and I would be happy to share the success with him. If I offered him 20%, would that be loads?


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    The OP has already stated that he has eveery confidence in the 'tipsters' methods and that he has a proven track record.

    Not sure where you are getting the 10% figure from its simply not true, many many gamblers exceed this figure, especially when gambling solely on a specialised market.

    No they do not. On a short term basis they can with golf bets or anything that involves big prices, but if we're talking over 1000s of bets, they do not exceed around 10%. In fact, many aim for around 5%. To get 20% on football, you're looking for an actual 1/1 shot to be priced at 7/5, surely you're not trying to tell me that the odds compilers are this bad often enough for people to be able to make a living off of it?

    And I am talking big 4/5 figure bets, not 1 euro bets on novelty markets, or 10 euro bets on lower bosnian reserve football. Neither am I including arbers etc who just back movers, because they can't get away with that for too long.
    'He doesn't gamble on anything but will often mention something to me and a lot of the time his pedictions are spot on.'
    That doesn't make for a 'proven track record' by any stretch of the imagination.

    20% is plenty! (Although expect to make a loss)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    No they do not. On a short term basis they can with golf bets or anything that involves big prices, but if we're talking over 1000s of bets, they do not exceed around 10%. In fact, many aim for around 5%. To get 20% on football, you're looking for an actual 1/1 shot to be priced at 7/5, surely you're not trying to tell me that the odds compilers are this bad often enough for people to be able to make a living off of it?

    And I am talking big 4/5 figure bets, not 1 euro bets on novelty markets, or 10 euro bets on lower bosnian reserve football. Neither am I including arbers etc who just back movers, because they can't get away with that for too long.


    That doesn't make for a 'proven track record' by any stretch of the imagination.

    20% is plenty! (Although expect to make a loss)

    Jaysus you talk some amount of scutter :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    dobman88 wrote: »
    So I have been looking for a half season bet for a bit of interest in the soccer after the January window closes. Trouble is I am not very good at studying form or trends or anything like that but one of my mates is and he enjoys doing it recreationally. He doesn't gamble on anything but will often mention something to me and a lot of the time his pedictions are spot on.

    I was thinking of asking him to come up with a bet that would keep us both interested and I would stump up the cash for it, not him. But what percentage should I offer him for doing it (if he agrees of course).

    I was thinking 60/40 in my favour after stake back since I am taking the financial risk.

    But would 50/50 after stake back be fairer seeing how he is the one putting the effort into getting the information for the bet.

    I don't want to screw a mate over but I don't want to lose too much value either. (should the bet actually win)

    Any opinions/advice are appreciated. Cheers

    You are going to lose money simple , maybe not today or this week , longer you do it with him you are going to lose money fact. Stupid idea. Great for him sh*t for you.

    Research lol , why most people think they can beat the bookie and don't they lose , huge % of people lose at betting 90%+ and the winners aren't making 20% on each bet , trust me save your money , you haven't a notion of how gambling actually works I don't mean to offend but from your post I can tell you haven't a clue , just don't want to see you lose money which you will.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭ dobman88


    You are going to lose money simple , maybe not today or this week , longer you do it with him you are going to lose money fact. Stupid idea. Great for him sh*t for you.

    Research lol , why most people think they can beat the bookie and don't they lose , huge % of people lose at betting 90%+ and the winners aren't making 20% on each bet , trust me save your money , you haven't a notion of how gambling actually works I don't mean to offend but from your post I can tell you haven't a clue , just don't want to see you lose money which you will.

    It's amazing that you know so much about me from one post. You must be psychic or something :rolleyes: It is a once off bet, not every week so the amount of money won't be huge. I am not looking to bash the bookies, I am looking for a single bet so we have a bit of interest in the football for the remainder of the season. Why don't you share your professional insight to gambling since you know so much and I so little, oh wise one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    dobman88 wrote: »
    It's amazing that you know so much about me from one post. You must be psychic or something :rolleyes: It is a once off bet, not every week so the amount of money won't be huge. I am not looking to bash the bookies, I am looking for a single bet so we have a bit of interest in the football for the remainder of the season. Why don't you share your professional insight to gambling since you know so much and I so little, oh wise one.

    I tried to offer you some friendly advice which you asked for , anyone that thinks they can beat the bookie while giving away 40-50% of the value of the bet is deluded , professionals operate on a much lower margin , probably up to 10% , your mate can study the form and find a bet that is still value after giving away 40% of the value of the bet its just ridiculous.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    Jaysus you talk some amount of scutter :rolleyes:

    You can call it 'scutter' all you want, I was trying to give the OP some advice - everything that clickerquicklic has said is spot on. If you had a clue what you were talking about, you'd be saying the same thing to the OP as well instead if pointing him in the wrong direction. If you can back up anything that you are saying, then fine. Show me a couple of examples in football where you can get this huge (>>10%) value? I would be particularly interested in how you came up with your price as well? Then, run some Monte Carlo simulations and see how much money the OP will 'make' in the long run if he's giving away a certain %. Or are you one of those guys who is good enough to just pick winners all the time....


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    You can call it 'scutter' all you want, I was trying to give the OP some advice - everything that clickerquicklic has said is spot on. If you had a clue what you were talking about, you'd be saying the same thing to the OP as well instead if pointing him in the wrong direction. If you can back up anything that you are saying, then fine. Show me a couple of examples in football where you can get this huge (>>10%) value? I would be particularly interested in how you came up with your price as well? Then, run some Monte Carlo simulations and see how much money the OP will 'make' in the long run if he's giving away a certain %. Or are you one of those guys who is good enough to just pick winners all the time....

    Firstly I didn't come up with any price??

    Secondly I don't bet on Football, GAA and Golf and online poker are my main areas of expertise, I can PM you usernames If you wish to check the figures for yourself, there are also planty of logs on this site that are showing profits far in excess of 10%.

    I don't pick winners all the time no, and am down money on the horses but I just love NH and treat it as a hobby as opposed to how I deal with the above mentioned areas.

    All this is kind of irrelevant to the OP anyway, its a one off bet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    Firstly I didn't come up with any price??

    Secondly I don't bet on Football, GAA and Golf and online poker are my main areas of expertise, I can PM you usernames If you wish to check the figures for yourself, there are also planty of logs on this site that are showing profits far in excess of 10%.

    I don't pick winners all the time no, and am down money on the horses but I just love NH and treat it as a hobby as opposed to how I deal with the above mentioned areas.

    All this is kind of irrelevant to the OP anyway, its a one off bet.

    You essentially laughed at me when I suggested it's impossible to find more than 10% edge in football - so you must have some prices in your head to come to such conclusions. There is too much variance in golf to judge threads here, one can get lucky with one bet and be in the green for the rest of the year. As I said, you need 1000s of bets. Plus with GAA, it's impossible to get a decent bet on - that is unless you're not deemed very good in the first place! I don't care about your private accounts because I've seen all that I need to see in this thread, but if you were to start any threads of your own with your picks (and most importantly your own prices), I'm sure I would follow with great interest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    paulo6891 wrote: »
    *edit, even if you're the best gambler in the world, in the long run you will not exceed 10% profit. If you are giving away a percentage of your winnings, you are doomed to failure from the outset.
    paulo6891 wrote: »
    You essentially laughed at me when I suggested it's impossible to find more than 10% edge in football - so you must have some prices in your head to come to such conclusions. There is too much variance in golf to judge threads here, one can get lucky with one bet and be in the green for the rest of the year. As I said, you need 1000s of bets. Plus with GAA, it's impossible to get a decent bet on - that is unless you're not deemed very good in the first place! I don't care about your private accounts because I've seen all that I need to see in this thread, but if you were to start any threads of your own with your picks (and most importantly your own prices), I'm sure I would follow with great interest.

    Above is what you said and I disagreed with it basically because its rubbish, no mention of any edge in football, you stated that the greatest gambler in the world will not exceed 10% profit in the long term, its so redicilous its actually funny.

    I have had many thousand bets in golf and am in profit over a 4 year period thanks very much for your concern, the variance in Golf is removed by correctly using Betfair and locking in profits.

    Why can't you get a decent bet on in the GAA, yes I have been restricted online, but I can walk into any shop in the country and have a bet, the only shop that has refused me is a local independent all the bigger ones will take the bets, I'm not talking 4 figure sums here, anyway stake is irrelevant as we are talking ROI and percentagers here.

    You don't care about my personal accounts because they show up your original statent for the blatant mistruth it was.

    Apologies OP your thread has been well and truly derailed but Im sick of all these threads about how you can't make money from gambling, it is very achievable but takes knowledge, patience, hardwork and discipline amongst other things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭ paulo6891


    I have had many thousand bets in golf and am in profit over a 4 year period thanks very much for your concern, the variance in Golf is removed by correctly using Betfair and locking in profits.

    :rolleyes: That comment alone just demonstrates that you're not that technically minded, so I'm not even going to comment on this further... :confused:
    Why can't you get a decent bet on in the GAA, yes I have been restricted online, but I can walk into any shop in the country and have a bet, the only shop that has refused me is a local independent all the bigger ones will take the bets, I'm not talking 4 figure sums here, anyway stake is irrelevant as we are talking ROI and percentagers here.

    If you are a respected gambler, you can not get a decent bet on, especially in GAA - I know I'm right and I'm not even going to try to justify it, if you're getting bets on in the shops, it means that they don't think you're particularly smart. And stake is never irrelevant, in fact one could argue that it's the most important part. Anyone can bet a 10er on a novelty market or a GAA rick, team news, shop specials, money back specials etc but I specifically said from the start that I was not including that kind of stuff. Big stakes indicate that one is going against the general line, which in my opinion is my definition of a great gambler - not one who picks out a couple of ricks and specials here and there.
    You don't care about my personal accounts because they show up your original statent for the blatant mistruth it was.

    I don't care about them because it is none of my business, I don't want to know your private details!

    I'm going to unfollow this thread now because of your jibberish. However OP, you can choose to listen to me or not, because I know the facts and the below are numbers that noone in their right mind could contemplate questioning!

    Let's say you back a 6/5 shot which should actually be evens. Thats a 10% edge and pretty much as good as you are going to get in football. Say you start with a bank of 1,000, bet 5 euro a go, and give your friend 20% of your winnings. I'm after running a number of simulations here as I had a bit of free time. On average (after not too many simulations), you will have 930 in the bank after placing 500 bets, while your friend will have 297 profit. So, you would be better off blindly choosing a selection each week and backing the best price! I'll leave on that note...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,198 ✭✭✭ dobman88


    LOL @ this. What did I start at all. Thanks for all the advice lads.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    You exposed paulo as a fraud if its any consolation :D That simulation is the darn funniest thing I have ever read!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    You exposed paulo as a fraud if its any consolation :D That simulation is the darn funniest thing I have ever read!

    I don't think he is a fraud his post makes perfect sense to me , he correctly pointed out you cannot make money while giving away 40-50% of the value of your bet , I don't see what the problem with that is , on average most professional gamblers are lucky to find 10% value . This guy is going to lose long term as Paulo's simulations points out.

    whats this look at my accounts thing either i could show you 50k worth of winnings bets every month this year , doesnt mean i was getting an edge of more than 10%


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    I don't think he is a fraud his post makes perfect sense to me , he correctly pointed out you cannot make money while giving away 40-50% of the value of your bet , I don't see what the problem with that is , on average most professional gamblers are lucky to find 10% value . This guy is going to lose long term as Paulo's simulations points out.

    whats this look at my accounts thing either i could show you 50k worth of winnings bets every month this year , doesnt mean i was getting an edge of more than 10%

    Ah hello, firstly his simulation is based on the pretence that a professional gambler would not use a staking plan - pretty basic tool for any semi serious gambler.

    Secondly no one ever mentioned giving away 40-50% of their value, it was proposed to pay the tipster a % of the winnings after the punter subtracts the original stake, so if the punter is at a loss the tipster gets nothing, if the tipster is to receive any money at all the punter must first be in profit.

    Refernece to my accounts was a direct reply to the ludicrous claim that even the best Gambler in the world cannot excceed a ROI greater that 10%, why are you making stuff up about me claiming to have 50K winnings in a month, that just makes you look juvenile and desperate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    Ah hello, firstly his simulation is based on the pretence that a professional gambler would not use a staking plan - pretty basic tool for any semi serious gambler.

    Secondly no one ever mentioned giving away 40-50% of their value, it was proposed to pay the tipster a % of the winnings after the punter subtracts the original stake, so if the punter is at a loss the tipster gets nothing, if the tipster is to receive any money at all the punter must first be in profit.

    Refernece to my accounts was a direct reply to the ludicrous claim that even the best Gambler in the world cannot excceed a ROI greater that 10%, why are you making stuff up about me claiming to have 50K winnings in a month, that just makes you look juvenile and desperate.


    lets say he bets at evens for 100 stake
    when he wins he wins 100 he pays out 40 of this so he makes 60quid

    when he loses he loses 100 and pays out 0

    50% of time he makes 60
    50% of time he loses 100
    100 times they play the game 3000-5000= 2000 loss

    I said I could show you 50k worth of winning bets a month on MY accounts that doesnt mean im making more than 10% a bet


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic



    Secondly no one ever mentioned giving away 40-50% of their value, it was proposed to pay the tipster a % of the winnings after the punter subtracts the original stake, so if the punter is at a loss the tipster gets nothing, if the tipster is to receive any money at all the punter must first be in profit.

    .

    That sentence there just shows you know jack all about gambling


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    lets say he bets at evens for 100 stake
    when he wins he wins 100 he pays out 40 of this so he makes 60quid

    when he loses he loses 100 and pays out 0

    50% of time he makes 60
    50% of time he loses 100
    100 times they play the game 3000-5000= 2000 loss

    I said I could show you 50k worth of winning bets a month on MY accounts that doesnt mean im making more than 10% a bet

    50% of the time he looses, what is this a toin coss or a professional gambler who has an edge and is being selective with their bets and varying their stakes?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,706 premierstone


    That sentence there just shows you know jack all about gambling

    Well if you have 50K of winning bets a month and are unable to return a profit of greater than 10% I would suggest it is you that hasn't a clue and also you have a serious problem.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 clickerquicklic


    Well if you have 50K of winning bets a month and are unable to return a profit of greater than 10% I would suggest it is you that hasn't a clue and also you have a serious problem.

    I'm not interested in debating this , you say your right i say im right gets us nowhere really. I'm very happy with what i do and make gambling , hopefully you are beating the bookie and not just getting lucky. Good luck


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,183 ✭✭✭ NewApproach


    The smaller your turnover the more likely it is to have a higher ROI. Its next to impossible to have an ROI >10% if your turnover is significant.


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