NH Trainer And Jockeys Strike Rates

hucklebuck

I have set this thread up as I am going to start posting the up-to-date strike rates for trainers/ jockeys and I was wondering if anyone can think of a good way of flagging up the trainers/ jockeys in form or coming in to form.

I use a program I got made to scan the results and give me output in the attached format, I am going to get this tweaked so it will only give me the trainers/ jockeys involved in that days racing as the output is far too big.

I was thinking of adding a column showing the change in strike rate over the periods in the headings so if a trainer had a strike rate of 20% over 14 days and in the last 3 days this went up to 70% his improvement would be 50% or is this overthinking it?

Any thoughts would be welcome.

ste2010

hucklebuck wrote: »

I have set this thread up as I am going to start posting the up-to-date strike rates for trainers/ jockeys and I was wondering if anyone can think of a good way of flagging up the trainers/ jockeys in form or coming in to form.

I use a program I got made to scan the results and give me output in the attached format, I am going to get this tweaked so it will only give me the trainers/ jockeys involved in that days racing as the output is far too big.

I was thinking of adding a column showing the change in strike rate over the periods in the headings so if a trainer had a strike rate of 20% over 14 days and in the last 3 days this went up to 70% his improvement would be 50% or is this overthinking it?

Any thoughts would be welcome.

What is your target here? To identify which ones are in form over a particular period?
From memory
Peter Bowen is may to July
Tim Vaughan from now to December
Charlie longsdon September
David pipe December jan

Maybe look at historicals..and track of there is a trend this year?

I was of the opinion certain trainers train with a period in mind to clean up rather than winding up horses for march with all competition.

premierstone

While I certainly see the merit in highlighting changes in strike rates of Trainers, as there is not doubt that trainers target specific periods and also there are just times when their horses are 'hot' I don't really see the benefit of it re. Jockeys, why would a jockey suddenly just improve ove such a restricted timeframe, the only proper explanation is he is a retained rider and the stable has hit form, but you will have identified this from the trainers breakdown.

Its a interesting project and I admire someone who is both willing to think outside the box and also put the hard work in, best of luck with it! Trainers at specific tracks is one that always intrigued me BTW but Im not sure if you could tweak this into your template.

hucklebuck

ste2010 wrote: »

What is your target here? To identify which ones are in form over a particular period?
From memory
Peter Bowen is may to July
Tim Vaughan from now to December
Charlie longsdon September
David pipe December jan

Maybe look at historicals..and track of there is a trend this year?

I was of the opinion certain trainers train with a period in mind to clean up rather than winding up horses for march with all competition.

The idea is to try pick up trainers coming in to form as soon as possible and to try gain an advantage.

Sure a lot of trainers come in to form at certain periods but this is not a guarantee that they will, also if a yard is under a cloud and suddenly starts banging in the winners.

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

While I certainly see the merit in highlighting changes in strike rates of Trainers, as there is not doubt that trainers target specific periods and also there are just times when their horses are 'hot' I don't really see the benefit of it re. Jockeys, why would a jockey suddenly just improve ove such a restricted timeframe, the only proper explanation is he is a retained rider and the stable has hit form, but you will have identified this from the trainers breakdown.

Its a interesting project and I admire someone who is both willing to think outside the box and also put the hard work in, best of luck with it! Trainers at specific tracks is one that always intrigued me BTW but Im not sure if you could tweak this into your template.

Some trainers are in form at certain times of the year but best laid plans and all that and there is always the risk of sickness in a yard and god knows that can take quite a while to sort itself out.

Sure retained jockeys strike rates should tie in but freelancers have no affiliations and could be in white hot form, another consideration is that a jockey could be hiding an injury and is not riding to the best of their ability.

Thanks man, the trainers at tracks is an angle I like too. I will look at this at another stage.

Huntley

The problem with this is that the angle isn't unique enough, or 'outside the box'. The important information you are using is freely available on racing sites so this seems like a futile project.

There are plenty of niches worth pursuing but this doesn't look like one. Just an idea off the top of my head is the angle between speed figures and novices. I didn't track it last season but prior to that it was pretty significant. If I recall correctly the Supreme winner came from the top five horses with the highest speed ratings over a ten year period or so.

There are plenty of other underutilized angles/figures/ratings that would be more worthy of your time and effort.

mr.jingle

premierstone wrote: »

re. Jockeys, why would a jockey suddenly just improve ove such a restricted timeframe, the only proper explanation is he is a retained rider and the stable has hit form, but you will have identified this from the trainers breakdown.

Confidence can do a lot for a jockey, winning a couple of races surely can only benefit them and maybe with confidence in tow they would go for a gap or try something they wouldnt do if they were not hitting the winners enclosure. Its a touchy subject to be honest.

Jockeys with claims would be more suitable i think for the argument as they can and will be used to great affect by some trainers such as Oisin Murphy has been this year on the flat along with King and Keane in Ireland.

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

The problem with this is that the angle isn't unique enough, or 'outside the box'. The important information you are using is freely available on racing sites so this seems like a futile project.

There are plenty of niches worth pursuing but this doesn't look like one. Just an idea off the top of my head is the angle between speed figures and novices. I didn't track it last season but prior to that it was pretty significant. If I recall correctly the Supreme winner came from the top five horses with the highest speed ratings over a ten year period or so.

There are plenty of other underutilized angles/figures/ratings that would be more worthy of your time and effort.

Where can you get strike rates? I have seen them on racing post but its normally best trainer and best combination but nothing more detailed or is this in members area?

The speed figures are on RP beside each horse, the program I use already outputs the horses speed figure, if I cant split horses in a 2 mile race I use it. Any idea where I can get a lot of speed info, Nick Mordin only seems to do it ad hoc.

ste2010

Huntley wrote: »

The problem with this is that the angle isn't unique enough, or 'outside the box'. The important information you are using is freely available on racing sites so this seems like a futile project.

There are plenty of niches worth pursuing but this doesn't look like one. Just an idea off the top of my head is the angle between speed figures and novices. I didn't track it last season but prior to that it was pretty significant. If I recall correctly the Supreme winner came from the top five horses with the highest speed ratings over a ten year period or so.

There are plenty of other underutilized angles/figures/ratings that would be more worthy of your time and effort.

Surely Huntley the angle doesn't need to be unique our outside of the box all the time if it delivers winners. If its used among other form type analysis I could see it being very useful. E.g. A novice running to 110's consistently in a yard that is out of form, then yards form begins to sparkle it could frame an assumption that the same horse could run a few lbs better which might be all that's needed to win whatever race or handicap he's entered in. Have a look at Peter bowens form from may to July. At one stage he had a 40% strike rate for nearly 3 weeks if I recall. All horses running lbs better than the winter. Some maybe GF ground horses but others not

Huntley

hucklebuck wrote: »

Where can you get strike rates? I have seen them on racing post but its normally best trainer and best combination but nothing more detailed or is this in members area?

I just went into the racingpost and was able to see a trainers results for the last fourteen days. I'm not a member so I don't know do they get even more information.

ste2010 wrote: »

Surely Huntley the angle doesn't need to be unique our outside of the box all the time if it delivers winners. If its used among other form type analysis I could see it being very useful. E.g. A novice running to 110's consistently in a yard that is out of form, then yards form begins to sparkle it could frame an assumption that the same horse could run a few lbs better which might be all that's needed to win whatever race or handicap he's entered in. Have a look at Peter bowens form from may to July. At one stage he had a 40% strike rate for nearly 3 weeks if I recall. All horses running lbs better than the winter. Some maybe GF ground horses but others not

My point isn't about whether it will deliver winners or not.

The idea is to try pick up trainers coming in to form as soon as possible and to try gain an advantage.

You don't need to develop a system to establish the above. The important information is already freely available. It seems futile unless there is something unique here that I have missed.

ste2010

Huntey do you use any software to conduct analysis?

hucklebuck

Huntley wrote: »

I just went into the racingpost and was able to see a trainers results for the last fourteen days. I'm not a member so I don't know do they get even more information.
.

I think the only way to get this is to search the trainer/ jockey and look it up, with my output I can filter for the highest strike rate over any period and the in form trainers/ jockeys are there at a glance.

I will get the program I use for my form amended to show wins only so it should pick up.