Wednesday 13th November

rossom

12.30 Lingfield

Benandonner 12/1

Risks definitely come attached to this 10 year old veteran but he is very well handicapped off a mark of 55 now returned to Mike Murphy's stable and although he's looked on the downgrade for Paddy Butler (awful trainer with no winner since May 2012) I'm confident his former handler can get the best out of him. Trained by Murphy between December 2009 to June 2012, he was a fine servant to the yard where he won 5 times and was placed on another 9 occasions and during his first stint for the trainer he was a very consistent performer whose rating stood at 84-95 during his 30 month stay with the yard. Even as a 9 year old, Benandonner showed most of his ability still remained with a 1L defeat off a mark of 84 May at Kempton of last year and he signed off his time with the stable with turf victories in a Seller and Claimer later that month. Having joined Paddy Butler's yard last summer, he ran a pretty ridiculous 24 times for his new yard where he saw his rating fall drastically to 55 on the AW and 45 on turf and although there is a chance he is on the downgrade he was only beaten 1.25L over this C+D off a 10lb higher mark of 65 back in March for Paddy Butler and was a fast finishing 2nd off a mark of 53 for the same trainer at Brighton off 53 back in June and I definitely feel there is some life in the old boy left. Despite being woefully out of form recently for Paddy Butler, Mike Murphy (also owner of Benandonner) obviously felt he could have some more success with him having reacquired him from a selling handicap at Brighton back in September and judged on the level he achieved for Murphy previously I definitely feel there are more wins in him from his lowly handicap mark. Looking at the race tomorrow, I think the make up of this weak 0-65 handicap looks ideal for Benandonner with there looking a good bit of pace on which should suit (occasionally pulls). Additionally, I feel Benandonner has the ideal draw in stall 4 to get across to the rail and sit just off the pace which should definitely see him to best effect from his bottom weight of 8-11. Shane Kelly (6-29 for the yard) takes the ride and I'm hoping the 58 day break since last seen will have him freshened up on for what will be his 2nd stable debut. Although there is a definite possibility that this 10 year old is regressive, I think his poor recent form is down to Paddy Butler and now having rejoined Mike Murphy he'll be revitalised by the switch. Off a mark of 55, if retaining anywhere near the ability he showed for current connections 18 months ago then he could be absolutely chucked in here and if the switch back to the Mike Murphy yard works the oracle then he could score here at a very juicy price.

UrbanSea

I've had my eye on him rossom but gave up. Best of luck, one I really fancy at Dundalk tomorrow if the price is right and another that should be a big each way price

sting60

Dundalk 6.45 Iontas 10/1 NAP.This lad could really be anything I think you need to watch his race at the Curragh to see what I mean.Lord Kenmare got 5lbs for 3/4L last time but he won in a canter and should win again.There is a real danger in the race and thats Have A Nice Day but he is drawn in Oriel Park.Byron Blue in the last at a big price.He ran very well last time in a hot race and has form on the All weather[Kempton].There is one at Lingfield that was an sp job last time 11/1 but beaten around 3L It was my first big loss of the year.Will post name tomorrow after talking to owner if off.Horse at Lingfield is out for a gallop"less than 5/1 no good to me".

NaiveMelodies

sting60 wrote: »

Dundalk 6.45 Iontas 10/1 NAP.This lad could really be anything I think you need to watch his race at the Curragh to see what I mean.Lord Kenmare got 5lbs for 3/4L last time but he won in a canter and should win again.There is a real danger in the race and thats Have A Nice Day but he is drawn in Oriel Park.Byron Blue in the last at a big price.He ran very well last time in a hot race and has form on the All weather[Kempton].There is one at Lingfield that was an sp job last time 11/1 but beaten around 3L It was my first big loss of the year.Will post name tomorrow after talking to owner if off.

Will be following Lord Kenmare all the way home tomorrow, belated congrats on your great tipping on friday!

Tough Lady 8.45, if the blinkers have the desired effect, is one I'm very interested in.
I think she's been crying out for this trip for 3 runs but for whatever reason hasn't been stepped up.
3rd last run is the interesting one, met plenty of trouble 2 furlongs out but finished a fast fourth, winner since up 14 pound and this lass down 6.
Was smashed up before the off LTO(14s into 6s) so she must being showing something at home.
Fingers crossed there'll be double figures about tomorrow.

ste2010

Golden call in the 3m bangor handicap is one I'd be on tomorrow only Tom George couldn't even win a Ugandan lottery by phisinh email these days

superfurry1

Tom george is due http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA3zhzT1wDo

Colonel Sanders

The first at Exeter is an interesting race tomorrow. A battle of ex pointers.

Minella Friend sets the standard But was hoping for a nice each way price on King's horse. The spas on Betfair are at it again however.

ste2010

Exeter 1.40 NAP Twice Returned 5-1 running for the in form Dan Skelton Yard. His bumper form alone says he's alot to offer and it's no coincidence this horse is being turned out in a handicap a few weeks after his first spin over hurdles for the current trainer around Chepstow.
Money is flooding in so get on

Exeter 1.40 Place Sandynow 16-1

Bangor 1.50 Golden Call 10-1 ew
I'm taking a risk here backing a well handicapped Tom George horse.
He couldn't buy a winning streak ticket with his current form.
I'm hoping he will turn a corner with this fella today and its fair to assume a number of big names in the race will be targeting bigger races during the season and golden call has won every race he's ran in at bangor

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The first at Exeter is an interesting race tomorrow. A battle of ex pointers.

Minella Friend sets the standard But was hoping for a nice each way price on King's horse. The spas on Betfair are at it again however.

Big punt on Emma Lavelle's horse in this one

I've had a small bet on Ned Stark at 11.5 win and 2.8 place

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Big punt on Emma Lavelle's horse in this one

Christ the price on this one was spoiled for peanuts on Betfair

How are people continuously so bloody thick?

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Christ the price on this one was spoiled for peanuts on Betfair

How are people continuously so bloody thick?

It is fairly basic stuff alright.
I know smad place was never gonna be a price but I was having a look yesterday when the market formed and there was 12.70 matched at 1.3. I mean who in the hell placed this bet first thing yesterday when the market opened? Just could not wait to get that 12.70 on,

Colonel Sanders

kiers47 wrote: »

It is fairly basic stuff alright.
I know smad place was never gonna be a price but I was having a look yesterday when the market formed and there was 12.70 matched at 1.3. I mean who in the hell placed this bet first thing yesterday when the market opened? Just could not wait to get that 12.70 on,

I posted before about sports like tennis (two "horse" races)

When the jolly is very short the market is crazily inefficient. You might see the jolly 1.01 to back 1.02 to lay. The other player might be 60 to back and 65 to lay

Despite the fact you're better backing 60 than laying 1.02 and you're better off laying 65 than backing 1.01 there's usually 95%+ of the dough matched on the jolly. Sharp minds eh???

sting60

Just threw 20e on Dear Maurice 25/1.

Johner

Jim Crowley got out of jail there if he got up.

rossom

Don't think Benandonner shaped all that badly considering all the pathetic runs he had for Paddy Butler. Was hoping to see him backed on course but didn't really materialise. Wouldn't give up on him just yet, especially if there is money for him. May well drop 5lb for that run.

Johner

Backed the King horse in the first here at Exeter, heard good things about it.

UrbanSea

I've backed Six of Hearts at Dundalk tonight at 6/1. Disappointed last time out over this course and distance but that was behind the very well handicapped Seanie who I think was about half a stone ahead of his mark. The handicapper has been very generous to drop him 5 lbs for that, and he was beaten only a head off an 11lb higher turf mark last month.

He has run well at Dundalk before though hasn't ran on it much lately, and he has won over this course and distance off a stone higher going well back. This race isn't as competitive I think and this represents a good chance to get his head in front, but he has a poor strike rate.

Also backed Black n Brew in the following race each way. He looks ridiculously well handicapped off 47 with a good three pound claimer up. He was poorly drawn the last day and is dropped 6 lbs for that but has form over this c&d off much higher marks, runner up off 53 earlier this year as well as 58, and was beaten over a length when 7/4 favourite off 59 in March. The draw is a bit of a concern in 11 but at least there are two non runners on the inside of him. 16/1 looks fair each way on what could be a very well handicapped horse, though they will surely find an easier race for him than this

Go Native

Our Mick wins. Simple.

Go Native

Have also laid the fav, Loch Ba.

kiers47

Have had a bet on Pete The Feat here in the next in Bangor. Hardly a confident selection but 7/1 is way to big. Was running a decent race the last day before unshipping at the last. Was bang there with a chance to win. Mark looks to have him covered but each way and hopefully can get the job done.

UrbanSea

Lads whoever just finished fourth at Lingfield put in the tracker. Watch the race . green silks white cap. The easiest ride I have seen in a long time

shamdrog63

Lucky Di

Johner

McCain's horse just gave a masterclass on how not to jump.

NaiveMelodies

Anyone watch the latest in Dundalk?
Don't want to jump the gun as I havent seen any of the horses previous runs, but Colin Keanes ride on the 2nd was surely very 'easy' against the stablemate Majestic Timeline?
Thought weak ride initially, but when the commentator said stable mate I immediately had a more cynical view.

No bet btw, but my pick was the 2nd, Times of Anafenko.

Slattsy

Lord Kenmare again at Dundalk in the next, owes me nothing after Friday but won well and 5lb should nee stup hum.

kiers47

Lord Kenmare looks to have a chance of doubling up alright.
I have a sneaky feeling Miller Beach might be capable of getting involved in a race of this standard off this mark of 61. These low grade horses are so inconsistent though im not sure i have the cojonas to pull the trigger. Maybe just a small bet so.

ft9

Black and brew lads ffs

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Lord Kenmare looks to have a chance of doubling up alright.
I have a sneaky feeling Miller Beach might be capable of getting involved in a race of this standard off this mark of 61. These low grade horses are so inconsistent though im not sure i have the cojonas to pull the trigger. Maybe just a small bet so.

There is definitely a race to be won with him. Got absolutely no run what so ever granted i highly doubt he would have gotten involved today even with a better run.
Carroll was going for 1 of them rides that dreams are made of :pac::pac: