Follow the money betting system

JR23

Hi there, anybody ever use the above mentioned system, I've used it for a bit now and have had mixed results, just wondering what other people's opinions on it are?

catallus

What is it exactly? The Google does nothing.

JR23

catallus wrote: »

What is it exactly? The Google does nothing.

Hi there, basically you compare the live betting with the racing post betting forecast. For instance if a horse was 7/1 in live betting and 16's in the forecast you have got a selection! The horse has to be 50% or less to be a selection.

catallus

Looking for a horse that is priced double or more than double what the paper says it will be? is that correct? I'm just trying to be sure what it is you're saying, sorry.

BQQ

JR23 wrote: »

Hi there, basically you compare the live betting with the racing post betting forecast. For instance if a horse was 7/1 in live betting and 16's in the forecast you have got a selection! The horse has to be 50% or less to be a selection.

Sounds like you're getting very bad value for money.
I'd be stunned if this system returned a profit in the long run.

JR23

catallus wrote: »

Looking for a horse that is priced double or more than double what the paper says it will be? is that correct? I'm just trying to be sure what it is you're saying, sorry.

Yeah that's basically it, there was one today 10/1 in the forecast/paper and in the live betting it was 9/2! Came third! The theory behind it is that someone fancies the horse to run well or that the bookies fancy the horse to run well!

catallus

Sorry JR23, you're confusing me now

Is it the paper or the liveprice that is larger?

JR23

BQQ wrote: »

Sounds like you're getting very bad value for money.
I'd be stunned if this system returned a profit in the long run.

Yeah I'm not 100% convinced yet, do you think that because the horse has halved in price though that it might be fancied by bookies/ owners etc!

JR23

catallus wrote: »

Sorry JR23, you're confusing me now

Is it the paper or the liveprice that is larger?

The paper/forecast has to be the bigger price catallus. Sorry for the confusion!

mike65

In other words follow the money, some yards are well known for this of course- Charles Byrnes for example

catallus

The best way to make money from horse-racing (or any sport) is to open a betting shop, I think.

But for entertainment, following the backed horses is a bit of craic. But as already pointed out by BQQ you're not getting "value".

JR23

mike65 wrote: »

In other words follow the money, some yards are well known for this of course- Charles Byrnes for example

Oh right, didnt know that mike, I
Must keep an eye out for that trainer when selecting horses! Any others you know of?

JR23

catallus wrote: »

The best way to make money from horse-racing (or any sport) is to open a betting shop, I think.

But for entertainment, following the backed horses is a bit of craic. But as already pointed out by BQQ you're not getting "value".

Granted I'm not gettin value but I'm getting winners! I don't mind havin a 7/1 winner as opposed to a 16/1 looser!

catallus

Well if you're getting winners then stick with it. You gave an example of a 9/2 shot coming third?

JR23

catallus wrote: »

Well if you're getting winners then stick with it. You gave an example of a 9/2 shot coming third?

Yeah I know what you mean, I'm not gettin winners all the time but what I ment was I'd be happy with a 7 winner as opposed to a 16 looser!

catallus

Wouldn't we all

What you need to remember is that when you back a hoss, you have one running for you, the rest are running for the bookie.

And if you actually look hard at the stats you'll see that most heavily backed selections end up not even placing.

Are you backing win or ew?

JR23

catallus wrote: »

Wouldn't we all

What you need to remember is that when you back a hoss, you have one running for you, the rest are running for the bookie.

And if you actually look hard at the stats you'll see that most heavily backed selections end up not even placing.

Are you backing win or ew?

When you put it like that it just shows how hard it is to pick a winner, always backing each way!

kiers47

I couldnt bring myself to back a horse who has halved in price just for the sake of following someone else's money. Usually the price has contracted as the original price was just wrong in the first place or the stable fancy it to run a big race as you say.
Now in the first instance there is little chance(although im sure it has happened before) that the bookies would price up a horse so wrong that it would half. In the second instance there is no way you will make money by blindly following every gamble.
It all revolves around that key factor and that will bring you back to a very controversial thread on here. Value, value, value. There is always value to be had on a different race without getting involved in a race where there is just no implied odds to back a certain horse. Granted if a horse has halved from 10/1 to 5/1 and you rate his chances of winning the race at no more than 3/1 then of course the horse is still value. It will be hard to take that you missed the 10s but clearly if you feel the 5s is still value then it is still worth backing.

What about about a related question on a different topic. If you were in the market for some high speed broadband. You see UPC have 50mb advertised for 30 a month which you think is great value considering you are currently paying 25 for 20mb. So you call up UPC to avail of the deal. When you call them they tell you that oh we have signed up xxxx amount of customers and we realized that the deal was way to good so they have now upped the rate to 50e a month. Are you still interested in the 50mb or will you be biding your time for another deal somewhere else?

catallus

While the notion of getting value in a price is all very well and good, OP, I have hazy recollections of following a system like the one you are talking about. It didn't get me winners, and I was being pretty systematic about it.

If you look at the racing results any day usually what you'll see is a number of favs or 2Favs winning interspersed with the usual 16's 20's winners and then maybe an outlier at 33 or bigger.

A rule of thumb for bookies is that every €100 into the till means €33 staying there, over the very long term. "Systems" have existed since turf accountants first set up shop.

JR23

kiers47 wrote: »

I couldnt bring myself to back a horse who has halved in price just for the sake of following someone else's money. Usually the price has contracted as the original price was just wrong in the first place or the stable fancy it to run a big race as you say.
Now in the first instance there is little chance(although im sure it has happened before) that the bookies would price up a horse so wrong that it would half. In the second instance there is no way you will make money by blindly following every gamble.
It all revolves around that key factor and that will bring you back to a very controversial thread on here. Value, value, value. There is always value to be had on a different race without getting involved in a race where there is just no implied odds to back a certain horse. Granted if a horse has halved from 10/1 to 5/1 and you rate his chances of winning the race at no more than 3/1 then of course the horse is still value. It will be hard to take that you missed the 10s but clearly if you feel the 5s is still value then it is still worth backing.

What about about a related question on a different topic. If you were in the market for some high speed broadband. You see UPC have 50mb advertised for 30 a month which you think is great value considering you are currently paying 25 for 20mb. So you call up UPC to avail of the deal. When you call them they tell you that oh we have signed up xxxx amount of customers and we realized that the deal was way to good so they have now upped the rate to 50e a month. Are you still interested in the 50mb or will you be biding your time for another deal somewhere else?

I'm biding my time for another deal!

JR23

catallus wrote: »

While the notion of getting value in a price is all very well and good, OP, I have hazy recollections of following a system like the one you are talking about. It didn't get me winners, and I was being pretty systematic about it.

If you look at the racing results any day usually what you'll see is a number of favs or 2Favs winning interspersed with the usual 16's 20's winners and then maybe an outlier at 33 or bigger.

A rule of thumb for bookies is that every €100 into the till means €33 staying there, over the very long term. "Systems" have existed since turf accountants first set up shop.

Looks like I'm not goin to make any money with this system :-) goin to keep an eye on it for a while and Sw how it goes!

catallus

Yeah the name of the game is "minimise losses"

I've my own little football system going at the moment (bookings odds) and it's making me money, but it's sheer luck along with looking for value.

When I count my winnings I weight it against the amount of time it will take me to give it back to the bookie Bit of fun.

chipsdave

Following betting markets on horses ,dogs has become pretty mundane and this is due of course to technology , the advent of Betfair , the internet saturated with knowledge , the high street bookmakers tills linked to the main computer in Head office , practically no chance of an off course touch , who remembers the Days of the push-out 'jobs' ? The Bookmakers on course would push the price out to inflated odds either because there wasnt a penny for it or they were backing it themselves (or in cahoots with the owner) off-course , this was very prevalent at the Greyhound BAGS Meetings which were sparsely attended , The layers would push say a genuine 5-2 shot out to 6's or 7's and have a team of runners off-course shoving on 50's here and there going totally unnoticed , they might not always win of course but by god were they beating the true odds !