Rotating Taoiseach 2016-2021 ?

July Rain

A rotating Taoiseach has often been mentioned as a possibility over the years but I think it will happen from 2016-2021 with Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin. FF and FG are most likely to have about 45-50 seats each after the election in 2016, so a FF/FG government will be the only viable option.

serfboard

July Rain wrote: »

A rotating Taoiseach has often been mentioned as a possibility over the years but I think it will happen from 2016-2021 with Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin. FF and FG are most likely to have about 45-50 seats each after the election in 2016, so a FF/FG government will be the only viable option.

Has never happened. Will never happen. The party with the most seats gets the Taoiseach. End of.

July Rain

serfboard wrote: »

Has never happened. Will never happen. The party with the most seats gets the Taoiseach. End of.

What If both parties had equal seats ?

Loafing Oaf

I think FG will be a bit ahead but if there are less than ten seats between them FF will be in a strong position to demand a rotating taoiseach, or some such arrangement.

Sierra Oscar

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think FG will be a bit ahead but if there are less than ten seats between them FF will be in a strong position to demand a rotating taoiseach, or some such arrangement.

It is highly unlikely that there will be a FF / FG coalition. However if there are less than ten seats between FF & FG then they most certainly will not be in coalition together.

serfboard

July Rain wrote: »

What If both parties had equal seats ?

The only scenario where it would happen. However, I think parties having equal seats is unlikely.

But if you do think it's likely, why don't you go to Paddy Power and see what odds he'll give you on that?

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I think FG will be a bit ahead but if there are less than ten seats between them FF will be in a strong position to demand a rotating taoiseach, or some such arrangement.

No. Less than ten seats difference might get you Minister for Finance, but it won't get you a rotating Taoiseach.

"To the victor belongs the spoils" and all that.

raymon

July Rain wrote: »

A rotating Taoiseach has often been mentioned as a possibility over the years but I think it will happen from 2016-2021 with Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin. FF and FG are most likely to have about 45-50 seats each after the election in 2016, so a FF/FG government will be the only viable option.

Having Michael Martin anywhere near government is a depressing thought.

As one of the cabinet that destroyed our economy he would be better off down at the Simon community helping the poor that his government created.

Loafing Oaf

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

However if there are less than ten seats between FF & FG then they most certainly will not be in coalition together.

IMO the closer FF and FG are in seats, the more likely it is that they will be the only plausible coalition option. If FG holds on to 60+ seats it's just possible the current government will be back. The other option is SF, but if both FF and FG are round mid-40s, probably neither will be able to form a government with SF without the support of independents (and I don't think FG/SF will happen under any circumstances anyway).

Out of interest, why do you think FF and FG being close in seats makes it less likely they will coalesce?

REXER

I don't know about rotating Taoiseach but I can verify that politicians are masters of spin!

Sierra Oscar

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Out of interest, why do you think FF and FG being close in seats makes it less likely they will coalesce?

Because if both are close in terms of seats, going by current opinion polls, then it would be FG being the dominant party with FF just behind as the second dominant party.

The notion of any coalition, even though such a thought is being rubbished at the moment and most likely would not happen, would most certainly be off the table if that arose. What would either party have to gain by going into coalition with each other under such circumstances? Nothing.

Loafing Oaf

Possible straw in the wind today, Niall Collins has an Indo article slamming SF and the 'traitor' Chris Andrews. Part of a process whereby FF and FG are encouraged to see themselves as being on the same side and SF and the left more broadly as 'the enemy'?

serfboard

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Possible straw in the wind today, Niall Collins has an Indo article slamming SF and the 'traitor' Chris Andrews. Part of a process whereby FF and FG are encouraged to see themselves as being on the same side and SF and the left more broadly as 'the enemy'?

Where is the evidence of this "process"? FF regularly have a pop at SF because SF are a threat to them - more "republican", more "left-leaning" and not corrupt - yet. FF Nua, IMO.

As for Chris Andrews, he's just an opportunist hopping on the SF bandwagon after getting the heave-ho from FF for bitching about them anonymously on t'internet. He was part of the duo (along with Mary Hanafin) that wouldn't give way in the last GE when told by the leadership that there weren't two FF seats in Dun Laoghaire, and that they would end up taking votes from each other. And so it transpired.

Of course, there are (now) no FF seats in Dublin at all, so, from his point of view, the best (only?) opportunity to become a minister again is to join SF.

thetoffeeman

I'd like to rotate the current Taoiseach off the top of a hill

Loafing Oaf

serfboard wrote: »

Where is the evidence of this "process"?

The fact that an FF TD is being given a platform in the FG-friendly Indo: but not to attack the government. It is Denis O'Brien and INM who I'm suggesting are making the running in this 'process', if it is happening, rather than FF or FG themselves, especially a yokel like Collins. I suspect DOB and the business elite of the country have identified FF/FG as the coalition most likely to be favourable to their interests, absent the emergence of a true Thatcherite party, and will be giving it friendly nudges over the next couple of years.

Sierra Oscar

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Possible straw in the wind today, Niall Collins has an Indo article slamming SF and the 'traitor' Chris Andrews. Part of a process whereby FF and FG are encouraged to see themselves as being on the same side and SF and the left more broadly as 'the enemy'?

If Chris Andrews had joined FG you can be sure that Niall would have been even more slamming in his article, that I can assure you of.

If there is a party that a FF'er dislikes even more than SF then its FG. Also, that is why your prediction will never become a reality I suspect. From now on the grassroot members will have to vote as to whether to allow the parliamentary party to enter into a coalition. The grassroot membership would probably be more likely to vote for a FF-SF coalition over a FF-FG coalition.

Loafing Oaf

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If Chris Andrews had joined FG you can be sure that Niall would have been even more slamming in his article, that I can assure you of.

Of course, but he wouldn't be given a platform to do it in the Indo is my point.

Sierra Oscar

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Of course, but he wouldn't be given a platform to do it in the Indo is my point.

Why wouldn't he be? The Independent first gave a column to Chris Andrews last week where he attacked FF and tried, unsuccessful, to explain his sudden departure to SF without mentioning that he was damaged goods in FF due to his use of really nasty persistent cyber-bullying.

Perhaps the Independent are pushing for a FG - SF coalition then? Niall Collins / FF would have made a demand to reply to Andrews article, as is standard in journalism.

raymon

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

The fact that an FF TD is being given a platform in the FG-friendly Indo: but not to attack the government. It is Denis O'Brien and INM who I'm suggesting are making the running in this 'process', if it is happening, rather than FF or FG themselves, especially a yokel like Collins. I suspect DOB and the business elite of the country have identified FF/FG as the coalition most likely to be favourable to their interests, absent the emergence of a true Thatcherite party, and will be giving it friendly nudges over the next couple of years.

That is not true.

The Independent and especially the Sunday Independent are FF newsletters and have been for years .

Have you read them ? Or you are guessing.?

Loafing Oaf

raymon wrote: »

The Independent and especially the Sunday Independent are FF newsletters

Not true of Indo since DOB took over, Ivan Yates is now a regular columnist, writing articles about "Why Martin will end up as Tanaiste in coalition with FG." (to get the thread back somewhere close to topic)

raymon

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Not true of Indo since DOB took over, Ivan Yates is now a regular columnist, writing articles about "Why Martin will end up as Tanaiste in coalition with FG." (to get the thread back somewhere close to topic)

He sounds more like a born again ffer to me

He has learned the Irish Independent ropes .

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/ivan-yates-kenny-gilmore-will-pay-dearly-for-loyalty-to-reilly-29696182.html

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

He sounds more like a born again ffer to me

He is a former Fine Gael Minister for feck sake! Sometimes it seems you like to believe that everyone that writes for the Independent is an FF'er, when the evidence clearly shows otherwise. :rolleyes:

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

He is a former Fine Gael Minister for feck sake! Sometimes it seems you like to believe that everyone that writes for the Independent is an FF'er, when the evidence clearly shows otherwise. :rolleyes:

I know exactly who Yates is .

My point is that he is following the anti FG/ Lab/SF/ Ind narrative preferred by his employers.

You can roll your eyes all you want.

leoXX

serfboard wrote: »

Has never happened. Will never happen. The party with the most seats gets the Taoiseach. End of.

Wanna bet ?

serfboard

serfboard wrote: »

Has never happened. Will never happen. The party with the most seats gets the Taoiseach. End of.

leoXX wrote: »

Wanna bet ?

When I saw this thread get revived and read my original quote of seven years ago, I first thought "That hasn't aged well".

However, the first sentence is still correct. It has not happened. Yet. I will concede that the rest was not a correct prediction when I see one Taoiseach hand over without an election and as part of an agreement. However, there's many a slip ...

There are already mutterings in Fianna Fail about Micheál Martin, with the new government being barely two weeks old. It remains to be seen if the government will last.

But sure, by all means, feel free to predict-check me in two and a half years time!

Quin_Dub

Necro-thread