Sat Pricewise for anyone interested

qc3

Back Jack to shine on his favourite track at 6-1

Anyone who reckons Champions Day 2013 isn’t living up to its billing is reading a different form book to me.
The winners of the Derby, Oaks, 2,000 Guineas,
St James’s Palace Stakes, Gold Cup, Prix de l’Abbaye and Lockinge are all in action, as is Cirrus Des Aigles, the
second-best horse in the world last year and still a top-notch performer in 2013.
This is the best single day’s racing in Britain this season.
Best bet on the card could be Jack Dexter in the Qipco British Champions Sprint (2.20).
Jim Goldie’s four-year-old relishes soft ground and has a good record at Ascot, with just about his best run coming when a close fourth in the King’s Stand over 5f in June.
He ran a cracker in the Ayr Gold Cup last month, giving more than a stone to those who finished in front of him.
This is open, though, and Cape Of Approval looks another value play at 25-1.
The Tommy Stack-trained four-year-old has twice beaten favourite Maarek this season and he ran really well from a dire draw at the Curragh two starts back on ground that would have been a shade too fast. A slow start, stall 18 and a fast 5f gave him no chance in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time, but he still shaped well.
Cirrus Des Aigles and Farhh set the standard on old form in the Qipco Champion Stakes (4.05), but the jury is still out regarding to how good Cirrus Des Aigles is these days, while Farhh is hard to keep sound and the speed he showed in the Lockinge might make this trip an issue after his absence.
The drop in trip might just suit Ruler Of The World given the turn of foot he showed in the Derby, but preference is for French raider Morandi.
He has been beaten by Intello three times this season, but that one’s third place in the Arc tells us he’s the best
three-year-old colt in Europe, so that’s no disgrace.
Today’s trip on soft ground is perfect and, as his best form came in the autumn last year, he looks likely to give his running.
The plan was to have a couple of stabs at the Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Handicap (4.45) given it is a 29-runner handicap, but it looks nigh on impossible so I’ll stick with just Intrigo in that race and Pale Mimosa in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (1.45) for Dermot Weld.
There aren’t many better trainers of stayers than Weld and the fact he runs Pale Mimosa is a tip in itself. She looked in need of the outing when disappointing in the Irish Leger last time, but started much shorter than her stablemate, and runaway winner, Voleuse De Coeurs.
She clearly under-performed that day but, with that run under her belt, a much better performance should be expected.
As for Intrigo, he will love the ground, and a strongly run 7f may enable him to return to the sort of form that saw him narrowly beaten by Heaven’s Guest at Epsom in June.

Today's bets

Pale Mimosa
1.45 Ascot
1pt win at 20-1 with Coral (18-1 with Hills)

Jack Dexter
2.20 Ascot
1pt win at 6-1 with Boylesports (11-2 Paddy Power)

Cape Of Approval
2.20 Ascot
1pt win at 25-1 with Paddy Power (20-1 generally)

Morandi
4.05 Ascot
1pt win at 14-1 generally

Intrigo
4.45 Ascot
1pt win at 25-1 generally

A nice e/w Lucky 15 at good prices.:rolleyes:

kiers47

qc3 wrote: »

Back Jack to shine on his favourite track at 6-1

Anyone who reckons Champions Day 2013 isn’t living up to its billing is reading a different form book to me.
The winners of the Derby, Oaks, 2,000 Guineas,
St James’s Palace Stakes, Gold Cup, Prix de l’Abbaye and Lockinge are all in action, as is Cirrus Des Aigles, the
second-best horse in the world last year and still a top-notch performer in 2013.
This is the best single day’s racing in Britain this season.
Best bet on the card could be Jack Dexter in the Qipco British Champions Sprint (2.20).
Jim Goldie’s four-year-old relishes soft ground and has a good record at Ascot, with just about his best run coming when a close fourth in the King’s Stand over 5f in June.
He ran a cracker in the Ayr Gold Cup last month, giving more than a stone to those who finished in front of him.
This is open, though, and Cape Of Approval looks another value play at 25-1.
The Tommy Stack-trained four-year-old has twice beaten favourite Maarek this season and he ran really well from a dire draw at the Curragh two starts back on ground that would have been a shade too fast. A slow start, stall 18 and a fast 5f gave him no chance in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time, but he still shaped well.
Cirrus Des Aigles and Farhh set the standard on old form in the Qipco Champion Stakes (4.05), but the jury is still out regarding to how good Cirrus Des Aigles is these days, while Farhh is hard to keep sound and the speed he showed in the Lockinge might make this trip an issue after his absence.
The drop in trip might just suit Ruler Of The World given the turn of foot he showed in the Derby, but preference is for French raider Morandi.
He has been beaten by Intello three times this season, but that one’s third place in the Arc tells us he’s the best
three-year-old colt in Europe, so that’s no disgrace.
Today’s trip on soft ground is perfect and, as his best form came in the autumn last year, he looks likely to give his running.
The plan was to have a couple of stabs at the Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Handicap (4.45) given it is a 29-runner handicap, but it looks nigh on impossible so I’ll stick with just Intrigo in that race and Pale Mimosa in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (1.45) for Dermot Weld.
There aren’t many better trainers of stayers than Weld and the fact he runs Pale Mimosa is a tip in itself. She looked in need of the outing when disappointing in the Irish Leger last time, but started much shorter than her stablemate, and runaway winner, Voleuse De Coeurs.
She clearly under-performed that day but, with that run under her belt, a much better performance should be expected.
As for Intrigo, he will love the ground, and a strongly run 7f may enable him to return to the sort of form that saw him narrowly beaten by Heaven’s Guest at Epsom in June.

Today's bets

Pale Mimosa
1.45 Ascot
1pt win at 20-1 with Coral (18-1 with Hills)

Jack Dexter
2.20 Ascot
1pt win at 6-1 with Boylesports (11-2 Paddy Power)

Cape Of Approval
2.20 Ascot
1pt win at 25-1 with Paddy Power (20-1 generally)

Morandi
4.05 Ascot
1pt win at 14-1 generally

Intrigo
4.45 Ascot
1pt win at 25-1 generally

A nice e/w Lucky 15 at good prices.:rolleyes:

I f****n knew it. Dirty b*****d!!! :cool:

byronbay2

kiers47 wrote: »

I f****n knew it. Dirty b*****d!!! :cool:

Pricewise tip Cape of Approval was tailed off in the sprint (14.20). Seal of Approval won the following race (14.55), in case you're blaming Tom Seagal for the gamble on Seal of Approval, which may have led to you not backing her.:)

kiers47

byronbay2 wrote: »

Pricewise tip Cape of Approval was tailed off in the sprint (14.20). Seal of Approval won the following race (14.55), in case you're blaming Tom Seagal for the gamble on Seal of Approval, which may have led to you not backing her.:)

Had no bet. Price was gone.

qc3

12-1 Strauss can call the right tune

The Racing Post Trophy (3.50 Doncaster) has witnessed a stack of outstanding performances by many great horses, but not always in competitive races. Today is different.
There are four unbeaten horses from four of the strongest yards in Europe plus a host of others who have shown they have what it takes to be competitive in Group 1 races.
It’s still not certain we’ll see a horse of the calibre of Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey, Authorized or Motivator, but an impressive winner can be expected to be winter favourite for the Derby.
The problem is trying to guess which of the unbeaten ones has the most improvement, or whether to side with one of the solid form choices in the hope the flashier ones aren’t as good as market rates them.
The trainer to start is with Aidan O’Brien as he won the Dewhurst recently and has a better record in this race.
He complicates things by running three, and earlier this week punters got stuck into Curragh winner Century.
It will be interesting to see how he copes with soft ground, but he wasn’t exactly all the rage in the market on his sole start, so I’m not convinced the vibes are as strong about him as they have been about some of O’Brien’s recent winners.
He has no better chance on the book than stablemate Johann Strauss and, at a double-figure price, he might provide a spot of value.
Nothing has gone right for him on either of his starts and he remains of great potential. He was given a mountain to climb on his debut at Newmarket and then left it too late at Naas last week.
It is not the trainer’s usual modus operandi to run a horse so quickly in a Group 1 contest, so it could be he is rated a
top-class prospect.
There are plenty of dangers, with Pinzolo and Kingston Hill the obvious ones, while Chief Barker is tough to beat if he gets into a battle.
The Bet Through The Racing Post Mobile App Handicap (3.15) is more my type of race and the advice is to back one on either side of the track.
Yesterday the runners came up the middle, but the sprint was won by a horse drawn 22, so Pearl Blue looks nicely positioned in stall 17.
The key to this mare is soft ground and she comes into the race fresher than most. Last time she ran a cracker behind Take Cover at York from a dodgy draw and she always runs well at this track.
The other one to back has to be Take Cover, who looks a top-class sprinter in the making. After getting caught on the line at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race on his reappearance, he seemed to find conditions too much in the Silver Cup at Ayr.
However, he looked really good at York last time and the ground will be perfect for him. If stall five is all right, I can see him winning for Johnny Murtagh.
At Newbury I like the look of Soviet Rock in the Bathwick Tyres Handicap (3.30).
He has been off since a below-par effort on fast ground in July, but his previous handicap form is red hot and he relished soft ground as a two-year-old. He was good enough to beat Hillstar at the start of the season and, with Andrew Balding’s horses still running well, it will take something
well handicapped to peg him back.
Finally, I like backing Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horses at this time of the season and Astracad ran really well at Cheltenham last week.
He might be even better at Aintree, where he has gone close before, and he is handicapped to go close in the Betfred Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase (3.05).

Today's bets


Astracad
3.05 Aintree
1pt win at 10-1 with Ladbrokes


Take Cover
3.15 Doncaster
1pt win at 7-1 generally


Pearl Blue
3.15 Doncaster
1pt win at 14-1 generally


Soviet Rock
3.30 Newbury
1pt win at 8-1 with Betfred or Boylesports


Johann Strauss
3.50 Doncaster
1pt win at 12-1 generally

Advised on Friday

Mull Of Killough
Cox Plate, 7.40am
1pt win at 40-1

qc3

Paul Kealy PWE

Tancred the form choice for unsung Coyle yard

Tancred
4.25 Doncaster
1pt win at 6-1 generally

Was noted putting in good late work when fifth in a nursery at York last time and that form has worked out fantastically well, writes Paul Kealy.

He was beaten around four and a half lengths, but the winner was well clear on his own and he was only a length behind runner-up Musical Comedy.

That horse ran off 85 then, but has since bolted up twice, the latest being yesterday by five lengths off his revised mark of 92.

Tancred has been dropped a pound for his fifth and has since left Peter Chapple-Hyam for the unsung, but hugely in-form yard of Tony Coyle, who has a strike-rate of 36 per cent this month (8-22) under all codes.

qc3

14-1 Merry King can land another coup for Jonjo

With due respect to the Breeders’ Cup tonight, most British punters will be much more interested in some really competitive handicaps over jumps at Ascot and some classy action from Wetherby and Down Royal.
We have a dual Champion Chase winner in Sizing Europe running in Ireland, while 2011 Gold Cup and dual King George hero Long Run makes his reappearance and the amazing Tidal Bay takes on last year’s exciting novice hurdler At Fishers Cross.
The best betting action is at Ascot, though, and Merry King is surely worth one more chance in the United House Gold Cup (3.20).
If he can repeat the form of last year’s seconds to Rolling Aces at Newbury and Cannington Brook at Haydock, Merry King will take all the beating and his trainer Jonjo O’Neill has been in good form for some time.
The six-year-old has a similar profile to Johns Spirit, who landed a gamble for the stable at Cheltenham two weeks ago, and, like that one, he is still a young horse open to plenty of improvement.
The market will be a guide to his chance because he might need the run, but if he is fit and ready he is handicapped to win.
In the same race There’s No Panic could also run well from the bottom of the handicap.
He goes well fresh, has been aimed at this race for some time and is a big price on the pick of his form.
With Harry Derham great value for his 5lb claim, he will be getting lots of weight all round.
The bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (3.35 Wetherby) is all about Long Run.
There is little doubt that at his best he would win this with loads to spare, but he was nowhere near peak fitness on his reappearance last season and you have to wonder whether Nicky Henderson is aiming to have him cherry ripe for the Betfair Chase and is using this run as stepping stone.
On testing ground he may not be able to get away with being a gallop or two short, and it could be worth taking him on with Cape Tribulation for the in-form Malcolm Jefferson yard.
The stable has made a quick start to the jumps season and, given Cape Tribulation’s prowess at this track (he won the Rowland Meyrick under 11st 10lb by 11 lengths last December) and the valuable pot on offer, it makes sense that he will be well primed.
Let’s not forget he was fifth in the Gold Cup in March when not that far behind
fourth-placed Long Run and, back at Wetherby and with a possible fitness edge, he looks a decent bet at 8-1.
Trustan Times is no forlorn hope to beat At Fishers Cross and Tidal Bay in the bet365 Hurdle (3.00), but for the other bet it’s back to Ascot and the William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2.45).
If someone told you a
two-year-old Longchamp maiden in 2010 would provide a form clue for this race, you would say they were mad, but Dildar beat Pine Creek on that October day three years ago day and both are of interest.
Preference is for Dildar as he is the bigger price and has always threatened to be a good horse. Running fresh over 2m on soft ground should be perfect and Harry Derham is again taking off a vital 5lb.

Today's bets

Dildar
2.45 Ascot
1pt win at 12-1 with Coral (10-1 generally)


Merry King
3.20 Ascot
1pt win at 14-1 with
bet365 or Ladbrokes


There’s No Panic
3.20 Ascot
1pt win at 18-1 with Coral (16-1 with bet365 and Paddy Power)


Cape Tribulation
3.35 Wetherby
1pt win at 8-1 with Coral (7-1 with Betfred and Hills)

Johner

qc3 wrote: »

Dildar
2.45 Ascot
1pt win at 12-1 with Coral (10-1 generally))

This one will work,

Dildar, Dildar, Dildar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQZsqROTSL4

Slattsy

Im all over Dildar myself

qc3

Saturday Pricewise

THIS season has been a breakthrough one for trainer Ismail Mohammed, highlighted by Educate’s win in the Cambridgeshire. Hopefully his good run will continue with Rhombus in the Betfred November Handicap (3.35) on the final day of the Flat turf season at Doncaster.
This horse has been on the top of my list for this race
since his runaway win at Thirsk in September. He sprinted away from a good horse that day and there is still plenty of room for improvement.
My confidence in him took a knock when he ran below
par at Windsor next time, but there were excuses and there is no doubt this has been his target all season.
He will need to improve a bit to win on what we’ve seen, but he’s progressive, unexposed, has a nice light weight and, crucially, has the assistance of Silvestre de Sousa.
No-one is riding better than de Sousa and he could surely have been on board any number in the race, so the fact he’s on Rhombus is a tip in itself.
Conduct is a danger as he’s lightly raced and should be suited by the step up to a mile and a half, but whether the combination of the ground, the trip and a wide draw will suit is anyone’s guess.
Lahaag was favourite for the Lincoln on the first day of the season and heads the market for this final-day feature. However, I’m not convinced he’s that well handicapped and he certainly isn’t as unexposed as some of the other John Gosden-trained winners of the race. Consequently, the other one to back is the Charlie Hills-trained Forgotten Hero.
This gelding clearly enjoyed the step up to a mile and half when winning over course and distance last time and that represents solid form as he beat a one-time Derby hope in Greatwood and Voodoo Prince, who was placed in this race last year.
Jim Crowley’s quiet style should suit Forgotten Hero perfectly and he has a much better chance than his morning odds suggest.
At Wincanton the Badger Ales Handicap Chase (2.40) could be run in much more testing conditions than many expected and for that reason Philip Hobbs’s De La Bech might be the one to be on at
10-1.
He’s inexperienced and badly handicapped on what we’ve seen from him over fences, but he finished third to Simonsig in a valuable bumper when trained in Ireland and has won an Ascot staying hurdle under top weight in heavy ground.
It is not Hobbs’s style to run a horse like this in a big race on its reappearance, which suggests he feels De La Bech is better treated than the bare form implies. Poungach is by far the biggest danger if he can get his jumping together.
Back at Doncaster my nemesis horse Mass Rally is too big a price in the Listed Wentworth Stakes (2.25).
Every time I back him he runs deplorably, but he has a big chance on his York win two starts ago.
What he needs is cover and a strong pace and he should get both with Hoof It and stablemate Spinatrix drawn either side of him in a 19-runner field. He will need luck, but at 12-1 that is a risk worth taking.

Advice

Mass Rally
2.25 Doncaster
1pt win at 12-1 generally


De La Bech
2.40 Wincanton
1pt win at 10-1 with Paddy Power (9-1 generally)


Rhombus
3.35 Doncaster
1pt win at 12-1 with Boylesports (10-1 Hills)

Forgotten Hero
3.35 Doncaster
1pt win at 16-1 with Coral (14-1 generally)

qc3

Very bad from Tom today.
Sunday's pick.

3.35 Fas Los Whiskey and Red. 4/1

qc3

8-1 Bradley looks
primed to go one better

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.30) dominates proceedings at Cheltenham, but I’m far from convinced it provides punters with the best chance of making a few quid given how competitive it is.

Instead, the Fergal O’Brien-trained Bradley looks the bet of the day in the Murphy Group Handicap Chase (1.50) over 3m3½f.

There can be little doubt Bradley has been aimed at this race for some time as he was a close second last year when attempting the impossible in trying to give 12lb to subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude.

Despite being 4lb out of the handicap, Bradley can race off a 1lb lower mark this time and he really caught the eye behind Balthazar King at this track last month.

On that occasion he stayed on strongly from off the home turn into fifth and, crucially, his stable is now hugely in form having been badly out of sorts in October.

The key will be the nine-year-old’s jumping because he can make mistakes, but if Paddy Brennan can get him into a rhythm he is going to be extremely hard to beat.

Tour Des Champs and Goulanes are dangers, but they would both prefer softer ground and the biggest threat could end up being Bradley’s stablemate Alvarado.

The pair are similar types in that they stay extremely well and like good ground and, as Alvarado is a 20-1 shot, he is worth support as well.

Last time we saw Alvarado he stayed on powerfully in a decent race at Chepstow, and on his best novice chase form he is nicely treated.

Like Bradley, Alvarado gives the impression he will improve for a thorough test of stamina and I expect him to outrun his price by quite some margin.

A few weeks ago I suggested backing Johns Spirit and Vino Griego in the feature race and the good news is that both have turned up.

The bad news is I’m concerned the ground won’t be quite soft enough for Vino Griego, while the more you look at the race the more competitive it seems.

However, with some luck in running Johns Spirit has the ability to be a major factor and the ground looks to be ideal. He likes to come from behind, so will not get away with any jumping errors, but he’s from a top yard and comes here in great form.

Vino Griego has been underestimated once again, but he’s very good on his day and if the ground had been softer I would have been keen on his chance. He loves the track and a big field suits him, so even under today’s conditions he is no forlorn hope.

Champion Court is an obvious danger given how well he goes fresh, Hidden Cyclone has always been classy and Ballynagour looked a world beater on his British debut last season.

All should go well, while it will be interesting to see which way Colour Squadron goes in the market as he is well in on the pick of his form and was the subject of a gamble at the festival last season.

The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle (3.00) doesn’t look as competitive as usual and it is no surprise to see the unexposed trio of Edmund Kean, Silver Eagle and Southfield Theatre head the market.

Preference is for Southfield Theatre, who has won his last three, stays well and is improving at the right time.

He is not well treated on what we have seen, but he wasn’t far behind The New One in a bumper early in his career and started 6-4 for a Grade 2 on his hurdles debut. He might just be a class above these.

Today's bets

Bradley
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Ladbrokes (7-1 generally)


Alvarado
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 20-1 with Boylesports (18-1 Coral)


Southfield Theatre
3.00 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Hills (7-1 generally)


Advised ante-post

Johns Spirit
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 12-1

Vino Griego
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 33-1

qc3

Tom Segal PWE

Lancelot Du Lac
3.10 Lingfield
1pt win at 12-1

BorneTobyWilde

qc3 wrote: »

8-1 Bradley looks
primed to go one better

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.30) dominates proceedings at Cheltenham, but I’m far from convinced it provides punters with the best chance of making a few quid given how competitive it is.

Instead, the Fergal O’Brien-trained Bradley looks the bet of the day in the Murphy Group Handicap Chase (1.50) over 3m3½f.

There can be little doubt Bradley has been aimed at this race for some time as he was a close second last year when attempting the impossible in trying to give 12lb to subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude.

Despite being 4lb out of the handicap, Bradley can race off a 1lb lower mark this time and he really caught the eye behind Balthazar King at this track last month.

On that occasion he stayed on strongly from off the home turn into fifth and, crucially, his stable is now hugely in form having been badly out of sorts in October.

The key will be the nine-year-old’s jumping because he can make mistakes, but if Paddy Brennan can get him into a rhythm he is going to be extremely hard to beat.

Tour Des Champs and Goulanes are dangers, but they would both prefer softer ground and the biggest threat could end up being Bradley’s stablemate Alvarado.

The pair are similar types in that they stay extremely well and like good ground and, as Alvarado is a 20-1 shot, he is worth support as well.

Last time we saw Alvarado he stayed on powerfully in a decent race at Chepstow, and on his best novice chase form he is nicely treated.

Like Bradley, Alvarado gives the impression he will improve for a thorough test of stamina and I expect him to outrun his price by quite some margin.

A few weeks ago I suggested backing Johns Spirit and Vino Griego in the feature race and the good news is that both have turned up.

The bad news is I’m concerned the ground won’t be quite soft enough for Vino Griego, while the more you look at the race the more competitive it seems.

However, with some luck in running Johns Spirit has the ability to be a major factor and the ground looks to be ideal. He likes to come from behind, so will not get away with any jumping errors, but he’s from a top yard and comes here in great form.

Vino Griego has been underestimated once again, but he’s very good on his day and if the ground had been softer I would have been keen on his chance. He loves the track and a big field suits him, so even under today’s conditions he is no forlorn hope.

Champion Court is an obvious danger given how well he goes fresh, Hidden Cyclone has always been classy and Ballynagour looked a world beater on his British debut last season.

All should go well, while it will be interesting to see which way Colour Squadron goes in the market as he is well in on the pick of his form and was the subject of a gamble at the festival last season.

The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle (3.00) doesn’t look as competitive as usual and it is no surprise to see the unexposed trio of Edmund Kean, Silver Eagle and Southfield Theatre head the market.

Preference is for Southfield Theatre, who has won his last three, stays well and is improving at the right time.

He is not well treated on what we have seen, but he wasn’t far behind The New One in a bumper early in his career and started 6-4 for a Grade 2 on his hurdles debut. He might just be a class above these.

Today's bets

Bradley
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Ladbrokes (7-1 generally)


Alvarado
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 20-1 with Boylesports (18-1 Coral)


Southfield Theatre
3.00 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Hills (7-1 generally)


Advised ante-post

Johns Spirit
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 12-1

Vino Griego
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 33-1

That'll do pig
That'll do

supremenovice

great day for followers of Tom with a 20/1 selection this morning and 12/1 ante-post.
Sadly, I thought I knew better.

madmoose

Top class him. If someone could update next week for betfair would be much appreciated.

ste2010

qc3 wrote: »

8-1 Bradley looks
primed to go one better

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.30) dominates proceedings at Cheltenham, but I’m far from convinced it provides punters with the best chance of making a few quid given how competitive it is.

Instead, the Fergal O’Brien-trained Bradley looks the bet of the day in the Murphy Group Handicap Chase (1.50) over 3m3½f.

There can be little doubt Bradley has been aimed at this race for some time as he was a close second last year when attempting the impossible in trying to give 12lb to subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude.

Despite being 4lb out of the handicap, Bradley can race off a 1lb lower mark this time and he really caught the eye behind Balthazar King at this track last month.

On that occasion he stayed on strongly from off the home turn into fifth and, crucially, his stable is now hugely in form having been badly out of sorts in October.

The key will be the nine-year-old’s jumping because he can make mistakes, but if Paddy Brennan can get him into a rhythm he is going to be extremely hard to beat.

Tour Des Champs and Goulanes are dangers, but they would both prefer softer ground and the biggest threat could end up being Bradley’s stablemate Alvarado.

The pair are similar types in that they stay extremely well and like good ground and, as Alvarado is a 20-1 shot, he is worth support as well.

Last time we saw Alvarado he stayed on powerfully in a decent race at Chepstow, and on his best novice chase form he is nicely treated.

Like Bradley, Alvarado gives the impression he will improve for a thorough test of stamina and I expect him to outrun his price by quite some margin.

A few weeks ago I suggested backing Johns Spirit and Vino Griego in the feature race and the good news is that both have turned up.

The bad news is I’m concerned the ground won’t be quite soft enough for Vino Griego, while the more you look at the race the more competitive it seems.

However, with some luck in running Johns Spirit has the ability to be a major factor and the ground looks to be ideal. He likes to come from behind, so will not get away with any jumping errors, but he’s from a top yard and comes here in great form.

Vino Griego has been underestimated once again, but he’s very good on his day and if the ground had been softer I would have been keen on his chance. He loves the track and a big field suits him, so even under today’s conditions he is no forlorn hope.

Champion Court is an obvious danger given how well he goes fresh, Hidden Cyclone has always been classy and Ballynagour looked a world beater on his British debut last season.

All should go well, while it will be interesting to see which way Colour Squadron goes in the market as he is well in on the pick of his form and was the subject of a gamble at the festival last season.

The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle (3.00) doesn’t look as competitive as usual and it is no surprise to see the unexposed trio of Edmund Kean, Silver Eagle and Southfield Theatre head the market.

Preference is for Southfield Theatre, who has won his last three, stays well and is improving at the right time.

He is not well treated on what we have seen, but he wasn’t far behind The New One in a bumper early in his career and started 6-4 for a Grade 2 on his hurdles debut. He might just be a class above these.

Today's bets

Bradley
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Ladbrokes (7-1 generally)


Alvarado
1.50 Cheltenham
1pt win at 20-1 with Boylesports (18-1 Coral)


Southfield Theatre
3.00 Cheltenham
1pt win at 8-1 with Hills (7-1 generally)


Advised ante-post

Johns Spirit
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 12-1

Vino Griego
2.30 Cheltenham
1pt win at 33-1

Unbelievable day for you-well
Done

SRFC

Anyone keeping a log on him this year? whats the points profit like?

qc3

Pricewise Saturday 23rd
1.50 HAYDOCK SPECIAL CATCH 14/1 Boyles
2.25 HAYDOCK TWO ROCKERS 9/1 Boyles
3.00 HAYDOCK DYNASTE 8/1 Corals
3.35 HAYDOCK RELAX 8/1 General

tomaussie

qc3 wrote: »

Pricewise Saturday 23rd
1.50 HAYDOCK SPECIAL CATCH 14/1 Boyles
2.25 HAYDOCK TWO ROCKERS 9/1 Boyles
3.00 HAYDOCK DYNASTE 8/1 Corals
3.35 HAYDOCK RELAX 8/1 General

Nice one mate.

No write up though ?

qc3

Pricewise Sunday.
2.25 Navan
pass the hat @16-1 365, hill
mad briain @10-1 ladbrokes 9-1 365

qc3

Take Batonnier to bounce back for King at 11-1

In the run-up to Newbury’s Hennessy meeting all the talk has been about the long-absent Alan King-trained Invictus.
However, another King inmate who has not been seen on a racecourse for ages might be the best bet of the day because if Batonnier returns in the same form that saw him hack up in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January 2012, he will win the bet365 Handicap Hurdle (1.50) easily.
So good did Batonnier look at Cheltenham that many fancied him for Neptune at the festival, but he got injured soon after and has been off since. Of course there is a concern about his fitness but King reports Batonnier has been working well and has been to Newbury for a few racecourse gallops. The trainer reckons he might actually have improved a bit since we last saw him and, if that is the case, he is certainly not an 11-1 shot to win what isn’t the strongest of races.
The feature race looks nigh on impossible. You can make a case for about 15 horses and it will really come down to luck and positioning throughout the contest.
A month ago I suggested backing Merry King at 20-1 and I see no reason to desert him now. He is upwardly mobile, comes from a stable that is mustard in these big handicaps and will undoubtedly improve for the step up in trip.
If there is a Gold Cup-class horse in the line-up he will probably beat Merry King, but remember that Jonjo O’Neill won the Paddy Power with an improving six-year-old two weeks ago and Merry King has an extremely similar profile to Johns Spirit.
The two I fear most are the aforementioned Invictus and Lord Windermere. Having reviewed last year’s RSA Chase again, Lord Windermere was a more clear-cut winner than I remember and was strong at the finish. Something that will stand him in really good stead this afternoon.
At Newcastle My Tent Or Yours makes his long-awaited return to action in the stanjames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle but Nicky Henderson has made no bones about the fact that today’s race is not the be all and end all and it is worth remembering that Binocular got beaten in this race for the same connections three years running at short prices. My Tent Or Yours might be too good and win easily, but this is no cakewalk with some in-form horses against him and I want to take him on.
Melodic Rendezvous is the obvious one after his comeback win at Wincanton but I’m not sure that was as good a race as it looked at the time and the value is surely with Cockney Sparrow.
Trained like last year’s winner by John Quinn, Cockney Sparrow is a prolific winner, keeps on improving and has been trained for this race. Provided all eight run she looks a cracking each-way bet at 14-1.
The At The Races Rehearsal Chase looks to have a nice betting shape to it as well. Vintage Star has an obvious chance after he beat a good horse at Carlisle last time but right down the bottom of the weights it could be worth giving one last chance to Baile Anrai in first-time blinkers.
He was a good novice for Ian Williams and is well handicapped now if new trainer Dan Skelton can bring him back to his peak.

Today's bets

Batonnier
1.50 Newbury
1pt win at 11-1 with bet365 (10-1 generally)


Cockney Sparrow
2.05 Newcastle
1pt each-way at 14-1 with bet365


Baile Anrai
2.40 Newcastle
1pt win at 8-1 with Hills and Ladbrokes


Advised ante-post

Merry King
3.00 Newbury
1pt win at 20-1

qc3

SUNDAY PRICEWISE.


Take a chance with 12-1 Gambling Girl

THERE aren’t many Grade 1 novice hurdles in the racing calendar with a roll of honour as distinguished as the Bar One Racing Royal Bond run at Fairyhouse this afternoon.
Hardy Eustace, Newmill, Hurricane Fly, Dunguib and Jezki have all won this race and I would be extremely surprised if today’s winner doesn’t become a leading fancy for one of the novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
Having stood in a muddy field at Lemonfield and watched Minella Foru win his point-to-point last March, I have a soft spot for the likely favourite and he has been impressive on both starts for Eddie Harty over hurdles.
Last time he really impressed Tony McCoy when beating
Very Wood at Navan but, given his background, I would expect him to be a staying chaser in time and two miles against some quick horses on decent ground may find him out.
Very Wood might take his revenge as he had to make his own running last time and everything that could have gone wrong did that day. He, too, is a point winner but he comes from a top-class Flat family so I expect him to run well.
However, there are a couple in there who might be ideally suited by the conditions and come into the race in peak form, namely the Willie Mullins-trained Alonso and Gambling Girl from the Jessica Harrington yard.
Alonso looked good at Wexford but I reckon Gambling Girl has been underestimated in the market as she has won three on the bounce and keeps on improving. Robbie Power has chosen her over stablemate Mr Fiftyone and the latter has a good form chance, so that tells us how highly Gambling Girl is rated by the Harrington yard. She also gets the added bonus of the 7lb mares’ allowance.
Admittedly, she doesn’t have the form to win this yet, but she could only win her last three races on the bridle and on each of those occasions she has shown a good aptitude for hurdling. She did make a
bad mistake at the final flight at Down Royal last time, but I liked the way she picked herself up and ran right to the line afterwards. That is always the sign of a good horse.
Of the rest, I have a healthy respect for Gilt Shadow, who chased home The Liquidator in a Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown last season. He jumped really well on his hurdling debut and if the ground were to turn soft I would be keen to be with him.
McCoy, who must have been delighted with My Tent Or Yours at Newcastle yesterday, is primarily over to ride Jezki in the Hatton’s Grace and he will also be looking forward to Minella Foru, but I think he has a great chance of winning the Bar One Racing Drinmore Novice Chase as well on Carlingford Lough.
Normally this type of race goes to an up-and-coming novice who hasn’t had much experience over fences, but I would make an exception for Carlingford Lough, who won the Galway Plate in August and was second in the Kerry National under top weight last time. Clearly that is the best chase form on offer and he also had some high-class handicap hurdle form, at least on a par with the best any of his rivals could muster on the figures.
I think he will like the going more than Don Cossack, and as good as Sizing Rio has looked, he has won two weak races and I think he would prefer further and softer ground.

Advice

Gambling Girl
12.40 Fairyhouse
1pt win at 12-1 with Coral (11-1 with Betfred)


Carlingford Lough
1.10 Fairyhouse
1pt win at 6-1 with Boylesports or Paddy Power