AIB Shares

littlemac1980

AIB shares are up 15% already this morning - Any opinions on what's going on here?

littlemac1980

Apologies - in the time it took me to post that - they have jumped higher - now up 34%

Edit : and now back down to the 15% rise again...

wtf!!!

mickman

investment from a foreign bank probably

euroboom13

losses against profit allowance change?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

euroboom13

if a highly profitable bank took them over now,they could write off hugh profits!

littlemac1980

What I don't understand is that at the time it first increased 35% only slightly over 1 million share had been traded.

Even now - at 30% increase only 3m shares have been traded (out of 500 billion right) - that obviously couldn't cause a spike in value of 1/3rd.

What's causing the spike?

gordongekko

littlemac1980 wrote: »

What I don't understand is that at the time it first increased 35% only slightly over 1 million share had been traded.

Even now - at 30% increase only 3m shares have been traded (out of 500 billion right) - that obviously couldn't cause a spike in value of 1/3rd.

What's causing the spike?

over 99% of the shares are owned by the state so are not available to be traded.

littlemac1980

gordongekko wrote: »

over 99% of the shares are owned by the state so are not available to be traded.

Yes I know that the Government effectively owns AIB apart from a tiny amount of shares.

What I don't understand is what is causing the recent spike.

If only 0.0002 % of issued shares have been traded this morning and the Market Cap of the bank jumps from 36B to 50B, what could possibly have caused that?

I presume whatever it is - due to the fact it can't be attributable to trading volume - which obviously it isn't - it must be something that the Government are involved in given that they own the bank?

Are there rumours circulating or being leaked to bump the price?

The valuation of the Bank at this share price is effectively in the Pre-crash range.

lucky john

AIB shares don't trade on the ISEQ proper so its possible asking prices can fluctuate a bit more erratically. Its unlikely to be another bank thats interested. They would surely go after a chunk of government shares and at a more realistic price.

Its not so long ago that the aib price tracked the boi price. Maybe some buyers see boi's progress and reckon aib looks cheap. If they think that then a broker could chance upping the asking price to see if they bite.

Johnerr

I cant find an explanation as the why the SP suddenly shot up, maybe an investor, maybe due to budget, maybe due to above posts^^?

When I seen 30% increase I hit sell sell sell as quick as, AIB are imo very risky. I only bought them a few days about so a 30% return in a few days is not bad at all in my books, may buy back if SP drops, as for BOI, its hold for me.

C

gordongekko

Its quiet simple. There is a small free float. If someone tries to buy some shares the market makers may have to increase the price to attract sellers into the market. Same if someone tries to sell a large amount of shares the share price may show a large drop. It often happens with penny shares.

Johnerr

small free float? does this refer to the 1%+- or whatever because the Gov own 99%??

gordongekko

Johnerr wrote: »

small free float? does this refer to the 1%+- or whatever because the Gov own 99%??

yes the 1%, that combined with the fact that most legacy shareholders probably have less than 5000 shares each and have written off their investment as the dealing costs make it uneconomic to sell. Also some funds have to track the market and need to hold the shares regardless of price so the actual free float is tiny and a small amount of buying can have a dramatic effect on the price.

In reality a share consolidation needs to take place but if this happens we are likely to see the price marked down resulting in nprf having to mark down the value of the holdings in aib and they just don't want to have to do that.

Gman1987

AIB is totally mad (market cap in 2007 close to peak was 22bn, at 13 cents SP market cap would be 66bn! go figure that one), will deflate and leave some poor fecker burned again.

lucky john

Ger1987 wrote: »

AIB is totally mad (market cap in 2007 close to peak was 22bn, at 13 cents SP market cap would be 66bn! go figure that one), will deflate and leave some poor fecker burned again.

14c this morning. Makes interesting watching. Anyone chance shorting it????

mickman

lucky john wrote: »

14c this morning. Makes interesting watching. Anyone chance shorting it????

no chance. its like stepping in front of a train

wired117

Any thoughts
1. Govt/aib cancels many billions of. Govt shares at zero value.
2. Boi rights issue will give guidance to valuation of aib.
3. Aib gets strategic investor on register up to 20%.

tech

the shares are going up nicely, is it worth buyin now @ 14c?

lucky john

tech wrote: »

the shares are going up nicely, is it worth buyin now @ 14c?

Note Mickmans comment a couple above yours. There's no telling which end of the train the engine is attached to.

Value Hunter

tech wrote: »

the shares are going up nicely, is it worth buyin now @ 14c?

No

mickman

rumours of KKR buying an irish bank institution - hence the rise.

gordongekko

mickman wrote: »

rumours of KKR buying an irish bank institution - hence the rise.

there is no chance of them paying 14c for aib.

euroboom13

mickman wrote: »

rumours of KKR buying an irish bank institution - hence the rise.

avocca not aib "80b"

littlemac1980

Falling rapidly now.... back to 0.07 - 0.08 today?

gordongekko

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Falling rapidly now.... back to 0.07 - 0.08 today?

still way over valued

Gman1987

A few people must have read this article today!!

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/aib-becomes-europe-s-most-valuable-bank-1.1568615

Cute Hoor

Could the drop in share price mean that Mick Noonan is trying to make a few bob offloading a few of the trillions of shares he has tucked up under his wee mattress.

wired117

They should go ahead and cancel at zero value 420 billion shares. They can't nationalise the bank fully as it will make mockery of not nationalising in first place. They should sell 25% for 1.5 b and get the banks back towards getting into private ownership. The kicker will be what boi does with rights issue.

hedgehog2

This is a dog of a share,I would not dream of getting involved with aib or boi.
For the minor chance of a few quid,they are way overvalued and bad news.