New poll shows highest support for NOTA

raymon

A new poll for the Irish Sun taken last weekend shows some interesting results.

NOTA - none of the above

* health warning : I am always suspicious of polls commissioned by rags like Irish Sun or Sunday Independent

In any case results were

FG 16% SF 13% FF 11% Lab 9% Ind/Others 23% NOTA 29%

Note to party rebels : there is a huge % up for grabs. Now is the time to start a new party.

Or perhaps the NOTA % will never vote.

Notably FF and Lab are most unpopular. With Gilmore and Martin most unpopular leaders.

BlutendeRabe

raymon wrote: »

A new poll for the Irish Sun taken last weekend shows some interesting results.

* health warning : I am always suspicious of polls commissioned by rags like Irish Sun or Sunday Independent

In any case results were

FG 16% SF 13% FF 11% Lab 9% Ind/Others 23% NOTA 29%

Note to party rebels : there is a huge % up for grabs. Now is the time to start a new party.

Or perhaps the NOTA % will never vote.

Notably FF and Lab are most unpopular. With Gilmore and Martin most unpopular leaders.

Which company were commissioned to perform the poll? RedC or Millward Brown? Generally speaking its less to do with the paper and more to do with the company and their methodology in conducting polls. The Sindo had a horrible reputation for polls due to the company they employed, Quantum Research. Their method was never published (usually RedC and Millward Brown publish a full detailed report and the IT, Indo or whoever put up a link to it) and their results were wildly inaccurate.

Btw the results add up to 101 (an error probably due to rounding). Also support for all the parties has effectively halved.

raymon

BlutendeRabe wrote: »

Which company were commissioned to perform the poll? RedC or Millward Brown? Generally speaking its less to do with the paper and more to do with the company and their methodology in conducting polls. The Sindo had a horrible reputation for polls due to the company they employed, Quantum Research. Their method was never published (usually RedC and Millward Brown publish a full detailed report and the IT, Indo or whoever put up a link to it) and their results were wildly inaccurate.

Btw the results add up to 101 (an error probably due to rounding). Also support for all the parties has effectively halved.

Very good point ! I believe it was B&A . !!

Health warnings all round

Iwasfrozen

What is NOTA? Please don't start a thread and expect everyone to understand abbreviations.

raymon

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

What is NOTA? Please don't start a thread and expect everyone to understand abbreviations.

Sorry about that .

None of the above . I will correct the op.

A_Sober_Paddy

raymon wrote: »

Sorry about that .

None of the above . I will correct the op.

Wow, that is a crazy stat

P_1

Interesting result, however isn't an average turnout at a GE in and around the 70% mark? That could count for a significant majority of the 29% going for NOTA

hmmm

NOTAs don't bother voting, therefore their whinge is irrelevant.

Mr.Micro

I would think that the 29% of NOTA would be, the don't knows. Come election time they will select from the usual suspects, aka FG, FF, SF etc

Sierra Oscar

The questions asked were leading in nature designed to create sensationalist headlines, poll worth feck all really.

I think this is a far more interesting story today that doesn't derive from a rag - Opinion poll translated to seats presents stark scenario

Seat projection:

FG - 60
FF - 46
SF - 21
LAB - 11
IND - 20

hmmm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Seat projection:

FG - 60
FF - 46
SF - 21
LAB - 11
IND - 20

A couple of interesting possibilities. FG/Labour/8 independents. 10 to be comfortable. That would be doable, but expensive.

FF/SF/Labour/1 Indo? Possible. I'd like to see that, it would give FG an overall majority after the inevitable economic disaster.

Gloomtastic!

I would be a NOTA. No party out there is promising what this country needs - proper public spending control.

Maybe I'm not alone.....

Radiosonde

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I think this is a far more interesting story today that doesn't derive from a rag - Opinion poll translated to seats presents stark scenario

Seat projection:

FG - 60
FF - 46
SF - 21
LAB - 11
IND - 20

He gets more than twice as many seats for FF as SF when the poll gives them similar overall levels of support (as someone in the comments points out, FF seat numbers increase almost 2.5 times on the basis of a <5% shift to them.) Yeah, I wouldn't take that article too seriously either.

Sierra Oscar

Radiosonde wrote: »

He gets more than twice as many seats for FF as SF when the poll gives them similar overall levels of support (as someone in the comments points out, FF seat numbers increase almost 2.5 times on the basis of a <5% shift to them.) Yeah, I wouldn't take that article too seriously either.

He rightly points out that SF are having serious issues mobilising their vote because a) their supporters are not as likely to turn out and b) they have a skeleton organization spread weakly in constituencies.

Look at the Meath East by-election for example. SF'ers were telling us they would take 25% of the vote based on the polls. In reality they got 13% of the vote as compared to FF's 33%, and that has been reflected in Magee's piece.

FF will be taking two seats in constituencies while SF will still be struggling to get their foot on the ladder.

BlutendeRabe

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

He rightly points out that SF are having serious issues mobilising their vote because a) their supporters are not as likely to turn out and b) they have a skeleton organization spread weakly in constituencies.

Look at the Meath East by-election for example. SF'ers were telling us they would take 25% of the vote based on the polls. In reality they got 13% of the vote as compared to FF's 33%, and that has been reflected in Magee's piece.

FF will be taking two seats in constituencies while SF will still be struggling to get their foot on the ladder.

SF would be stronger than FF in a lot of Dublin constituencies(main exception would be Dublin Rathdown, Fingal & Dun Laoghaire) also I'd say FF would still be fairly transfer toxic.

The FG number is a bit high though (would put them on mid 50s).

Adrian Kavanagh has been doing polling projections for a good while (I'd be more inclined to go with him).
http://politicalreform.ie/author/adriankavanagh/

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The questions asked were leading in nature designed to create sensationalist headlines, poll worth feck all really.

Is this poll any different from the Sunday Independent polls

Sunday Independent needs to deliver a pro Fianna Fail or anti FG / Lab / SF / Ind front page every Sunday.

I don't see you dismissing Sunday Independent polls.

Godge

BlutendeRabe wrote: »

SF would be stronger than FF in a lot of Dublin constituencies(main exception would be Dublin Rathdown, Fingal & Dun Laoghaire) also I'd say FF would still be fairly transfer toxic.

The FG number is a bit high though (would put them on mid 50s).

Adrian Kavanagh has been doing polling projections for a good while (I'd be more inclined to go with him).
http://politicalreform.ie/author/adriankavanagh/

I would agree about FF being transfer toxic but the only party even more transfer toxic than FF is SF so I don't think that will help SF.

FG and Labour will benefit from transfers to a greater extent than the other two and that may be enough when the time comes to see them home with a small majority.

BlutendeRabe

Godge wrote: »

I would agree about FF being transfer toxic but the only party even more transfer toxic than FF is SF so I don't think that will help SF.

FG and Labour will benefit from transfers to a greater extent than the other two and that may be enough when the time comes to see them home with a small majority.

Labour wont if they're well behind SF, and the trend seems to indicate that they'll be at least 5 points behind SF. A lot of their current TDs were elected because of SF transfers, and in a lot of cases incumbent Labour TD's will be eliminated before them.

They're not as transfer toxic as they used to be. They only got elected in Cork East, Laois Offaly and Sligo-North Leitrim because the candidates they're got a good number of transfers. They'll probably do better once they ditch Adams.

Godge

BlutendeRabe wrote: »

Labour wont if they're well behind SF, and the trend seems to indicate that they'll be at least 5 points behind SF. A lot of their current TDs were elected because of SF transfers, and in a lot of cases incumbent Labour TD's will be eliminated before them.

They're not as transfer toxic as they used to be. They only got elected in Cork East, Laois Offaly and Sligo-North Leitrim because the candidates they're got a good number of transfers. They'll probably do better once they ditch Adams.

Cork East: John Mulvihill and Sandra McClellan were both Middleton candidates yet Mulvihill got more transfers. Kevin O'Keeffe had the handicap of being the son of a FF Minister yet he nearly made up huge ground on McClellan gaining 4112 votes to her 3493 and of her 3493, two-thirds came from Middleton via Mulvihill. A local factor rather than a SFer getting votes.


Laois-Offaly: You have a point here. Stanley and Whelan would both be considered Laois candidates so no geography issue. Stanley did pick up more transfers than Whelan which is a good result for SF. However, they came from Foley (Ind FF) and Moloney (ff) which would indicate SF and FF were getting votes from the same pool in this constituency. Can't see three seats next time out for the SF/FF axis. An Offaly based Labour candidate might have swung the seat for Labour picking up another 1,500 -2,000 votes which would have transferred mostly to Whelan rather than Stanley because with no geographic issue, the votes would follow party lines.

Sligo-North Leitrim: The issue here was Susan O'Keeffe's votes. Out of her 6,600 votes, only 550 went to the FF candidate. The rest went 2:1 to the FG candidates over SF. Compared to FF though, it was 3:1 in favour of SF. If, as is being suggested FF are not as toxic the next time out, a reversal of this trend would have seen FF pick up that seat if first preferences remain the same. Have to say though that I didn't look at the geographical issues for this one.

Overall, I think there is a lot of work to do for SF.

BlutendeRabe

Godge wrote: »

Cork East: John Mulvihill and Sandra McClellan were both Middleton candidates yet Mulvihill got more transfers. Kevin O'Keeffe had the handicap of being the son of a FF Minister yet he nearly made up huge ground on McClellan gaining 4112 votes to her 3493 and of her 3493, two-thirds came from Middleton via Mulvihill. A local factor rather than a SFer getting votes.


Laois-Offaly: You have a point here. Stanley and Whelan would both be considered Laois candidates so no geography issue. Stanley did pick up more transfers than Whelan which is a good result for SF. However, they came from Foley (Ind FF) and Moloney (ff) which would indicate SF and FF were getting votes from the same pool in this constituency. Can't see three seats next time out for the SF/FF axis. An Offaly based Labour candidate might have swung the seat for Labour picking up another 1,500 -2,000 votes which would have transferred mostly to Whelan rather than Stanley because with no geographic issue, the votes would follow party lines.

Sligo-North Leitrim: The issue here was Susan O'Keeffe's votes. Out of her 6,600 votes, only 550 went to the FF candidate. The rest went 2:1 to the FG candidates over SF. Compared to FF though, it was 3:1 in favour of SF. If, as is being suggested FF are not as toxic the next time out, a reversal of this trend would have seen FF pick up that seat if first preferences remain the same. Have to say though that I didn't look at the geographical issues for this one.

Overall, I think there is a lot of work to do for SF.

In Cork East, when the 2nd northern based FG candidate was eliminated, McLellan managed to get more transfers from him than Mulvihill got. (ok 190 vs 320 but its interesting enough).g
Given FF vote (16.6%) she defiantly needed the transfers from Mulivhill and others to get her over the line.

CE & S-NL probably weren't great examples to use since geography influenced the results a lot, though you could still argue its an improvement. Years ago even if an SF candidate was geographically favoured they still wouldn't have gotten transfers

cormacjones

raymon wrote: »

Is this poll any different from the Sunday Independent polls

Sunday Independent needs to deliver a pro Fianna Fail or anti FG / Lab / SF / Ind front page every Sunday.

I don't see you dismissing Sunday Independent polls.

It doesn't suit his agenda.