Implications of climate change for Ireland.

slowburner

Met Éireann issued a public statement on the 28th of September 2013 concerning the findings of the fifth assessment of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The report found a 95% probability that global warming has been caused by human activity, primarily as a consequence of fossil fuel consumption. (www.ipcc.ch)

Ireland's cool temperate climate and relatively benign weather might make this island an attractive proposition in the future, as other regions begin to suffer the effects of climate change.
Will we see hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters as predicted? At a local level, we have seen a sequence of unusual weather patterns over the past eight or nine years - generally gloomy summers interspersed with record breaking low winter temperatures and exceptionally heavy rainfall events leading to flash flooding. Longer term, rising sea levels are causing significantly increased coastal erosion.
So what are the implications for Ireland demographically, economically and physically?
Should we be concerned and what steps do we need to take?


(Irish Times article)
(Independent.ie article)

saibhne

Interesting that there hasn't been any replies.. An indication of the level of engagement with this issue perhaps?

For what it's worth my four biggest concerns regarding Climate change in Ireland are the following:

Food and Energy Security. Although the climate in Ireland will be livable there are many places on this planet where it will become increasingly difficult to survive. This will lead to great (er) unrest throughout the globe. As Ireland imports the vast majority of its energy (90% or so) and a substantial amount of food (need to find a figure but from memory it is high.) this leaves us beholding to the availability of food and energy outside of our shores and thus vulnerable to shortages in these two vital sectors.

Climate Refugees. With vast unrest throughout the world human nature will bring enormous numbers of climate refugees to our shores searching for somewhere better than where they have come from. What do we do in this situation? How do we feed and shelter these people? What is a viable self sustaining population on this island?

Sea level rise. Most of Ireland's infrastructure lies by the coast, with sea level rise comes damage and loss to this infrastructure. The cost of this damage will be the major concern and particularly the loss of value to property and assets by the coast. Already in Florida insurance companies are reluctant to insure properties that are vulnerable to flooding - this makes it impossible to sell the property and diminishes the value of the asset substantially. The perception of the insurance companies whether a property is safe or not will be the greatest initial risk to the value of the property, the property will not have to be physically flooded it will just need to be in an area perceived to be at risk.

Conscription: This is a bit far fetched but is something that haunts me as a father of young children. Should the world become more unsettled there will be a need for greater military action to defend our resources. As a member of the EU we have certain "voluntary" military obligations in terms of partnering with other EU nations' military/peacekeeping actions. I fear that should this world become more violent as a consequence of climate change then our military treaty obligations will be extended to defending the EU and our children will be conscripted into this service.

slowburner

The subject of coastal erosion and sea level rise is one which waxes and wanes in popularity.
Here's an interesting curious interactive map which purports to show the number of homes lost at various heights of sea level rise.
Bundoran, for example, would lose 65 homes if sea level was to rise by 1 inch.
http://globalfloodmap.org/Ireland

According to research at NUIG, sea levels in the Irish sea will rise by up to 0.5m by the end of the century.

The Irish Sea, being semi-enclosed, has a unique and complex geography, which influences its currents and our specific finding will help us better understand what lies ahead for these vital waters which link Ireland and the UK.

Coastal zones outside the Irish sea appear to be undergoing a sea level rise of 1mm per year, on average.
http://www.climateadaptation.eu/ireland/coastal-floods/

navigator

recent surveys I have just read (now I can't remember where) show that Ireland is getting wetter and warmer

saibhne

slowburner wrote: »

The subject of coastal erosion and sea level rise is one which waxes and wanes in popularity.
Here's an interesting curious interactive map which purports to show the number of homes lost at various heights of sea level rise.
Bundoran, for example, would lose 65 homes if sea level was to rise by 1 inch.
http://globalfloodmap.org/Ireland

According to research at NUIG, sea levels in the Irish sea will rise by up to 0.5m by the end of the century.
Coastal zones outside the Irish sea appear to be undergoing a sea level rise of 1mm per year, on average.
http://www.climateadaptation.eu/ireland/coastal-floods/

Funny old map alright - not sure of its accuracy. When trying to judge implications of flooding from the sea I go by a rule of thumb that a 1m rise in sea level will give a possible 100m inundation during storm tides i.e. if sea level rises by 1m then the possibility of flooding up to 100m from the current shoreline is high during storms. This risk is very much influenced by local topography, vegetation etc.. the lower, flatter and more built up the land the higher the risk. This thought invariably comes to mind when I'm on the dart passing Blackrock/Sandymount/Ringsend - If its a stormy winters day the waves from the sea are often sending spray onto the carriage windows as we pass. A lot of houses/buildings/roads on the seafront there that will probably be hit by flooding on an increasingly regular basis in 20 - 30 years time. Not to mention the Dart line being made unusable..

newtoit73

This is an interesting thread.... seeing as we had the IPCC status update that should but the fear of F$%King hell in everyone this year...


Since Slowburner's kick off of this thread, 2013 how it has been confirmed and 100% no doubt now , except from brothers and sisters that are either totally ignorance , indifferent, or part of the oligarch mob that seem to have no concern for what is likely to be our future.

I have had many a frustrating "conversation" with people that are just not getting it.... on one occasion i heard the argument..." but there is only a tiny percentage of C02 in the atmosphere, how could this casue issues? ".....
a trend chart and some explanation about the effect of CO2 was required....not sure it stuck though.


Carbon dioxide tops 400 ppm. On May 9, 2013.....and i believe it is 406 and above now in 2018....

To some this means nothing..... but to those who are awake and have understanding , it means a lot.

So Trump and his type aside......i think there is some hope.

i personally believe the world in general will not make enough effort as is needed, that said there are some good people trying, i saw ted talks of a guy who has proven it is possible to return a desert area to green lankscape by simply allowing decent size herds of cattle to roam freely...I am not sure how it is imitated , or if there are limitations, but i understood the presence of these cattle along with everything they bring , does the trick....
https://returntonow.net/2017/11/30/cows-can-turn-desert-back-grassland-save-planet/

Sadhguru , tells how he an thousands of volunteers planted trees to restore an entire landscape to its former glory...
https://isha.sadhguru.org/in/en/blog/article/project-greenhands-23-million-trees-and-counting

i am sure there are many more......and there are always the na-sayers.... innovators will always be scorned i suppose...


I am going to try and do my best, i read once in a related novel "to be a friend of the earth you have to be an enemy of human kind"

well i think there is truth, because there are some humans that seem to have no problem in destroying everything to gain in power or prestige....


indoor ski slopes in the middle of the desert!!

new president of Brazil wants to open up the amazon for full on harvest....
(i think he got in by crooked means, becasue i know a few Brazilians and they are not of his mind set!!! )


Trump simple denies.......we know for 100% sure he got in by crooked means,,,, Cambridge analytics, super delegates and clatter of lies thrown in managed to get him to where he is.
(again there is at least 50% of Americans that are not of his mindset....some fantastic people trying there best there too despite Trumpism)



anyways ..... we will see....



lets fight the good fight. it is worth it!!!!!