German General Election 2013

murphaph

I had a quick look and couldn't find any thread about this, which I feel is a bit odd given the numbers of contributors on here who spout out such lines as "Merkel runs Europe etc."

The fact however remains that who the Germans elect has profound knock on effects for all Europeans, simply because Germany is the principal economy in Europe and its fortunes to a greater or lesser extent determine our fortunes.

So, having said that, Germans went to the polls on Sunday (it's always on a Sunday here, regardless of what sort of election it is, purely so that the maximum number of people get to vote) and it looks like Merkel's conservative party, the CDU (combined with their sister party from Bavaria, the CSU) will not quite get an overall majority of seats in the Bundestag so will likely need a coalition partner.

Their preferred choice of partner would have been the FDP (German liberal party) who they govern with right now, BUT the FDP have failed to get the minimum 5% of the national vote required of them to be entitled to ANY seats in parliament (the 5% rule is a direct result of Germany's Nazi past and designed to prevent (right wing) extremists who might be popular is one little corner of the country from getting a national voice). Given that the FDP is now not an option, it is looking increasingly likely that there will be another grand coalition of the CDU/CSU & SDP (German socialist party), as there was when Merkel first became Chancellor after the CDU narrowly defeated Gerhard Schröder's SDP in 2004.

A new party "Alternative für Deutschland", which campaigned on a line of "no more bailouts for Greece & Co. and a withdrawal from the Euro, polled just under the 5% national minimum so also fail to get any seats, but it's a shot across the bows from an electorate that is getting slightly fed up at funding the bailouts (it could be argued that a weak Euro has helped German exports etc. but that's for another thread).

If anyone is interested and can access BBC iPlayer (there are ways and means ) then Andrew Marr has a good documentary on Frau Merkel, which some may find interesting. She is very atypical for a German politician, or at least was when she entered politics (late in life: Link

Scofflaw

The results of the election seem to have been fairly solidly predicted in advance. Hard to say until a coalition is formed what the outcome is likely to mean for the rest of Europe:

Her victory goes far beyond the borders of Germany. Already, Merkel was the strongest figure on the European political stage. With French President François Hollande struggling to gain traction in Paris and Britain having no interest in the common currency, the chancellor's voice in Berlin carried immense weight. Now, it will carry even more.

That, of course, is not a prospect that many in the euro zone find particularly appealing, especially those in struggling member states in the south. Indeed, most had been hoping at the very least that Merkel would be forced to enter into a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), believing that she would then have to loosen the austerity thumb screws. And she will likely still have to. Early evening forecasts that she might have won an absolute majority began looking premature. Left without a potential coalition partner on the center right, the SPD would seem to be the only one available.

However, with a result like that, I imagine we can stop ascribing everything to domestic German electoral uncertainty at least.

Of course, not everyone is happy: German election results revive FTT threat

cordially,
Scofflaw

riffmongous

I think the results are very interesting, certainly seems like a public endorsement of Merkel and her handling of the crisis of the past few years. I am looking forward to seeing the results of the Austrian election next week too, should be very interesting with a few new parties fighting for votes.

Just an interesting anecdote about AFD, I was in Hannover two weekends ago visiting a friend and while looking around the city we noticed there was a large amount of well equipped police officers standing around, with no soccer on we didn't know why they were there. When we went a bit futher we saw it was a rally for AFD, but there was only around 40 people attending.. however there must have been around 40 police supervising it!

McDave

If Merkel is prepared to adjust/speed up her policy response, I think a coalition with the SPD is the likeliest outcome. Rather than getting entirely her own way, I think she'll want a stable platform. Only the SPD can deliver that. But at their price.

Their agreed programme on the EZ will be rolled out as certain milestones are reached, e.g. on member state performance, agreement on regulation and necessary institutional changes. There'll also be a massive infrastructural programme on transport, energy and communications. The Germans have been saving their pennies, and they're going to get a massive bang for their buck.