Sunday September 1st

sonnky

Newton Abbot 3.20 - Decoy 10/1(Stan James)

An class 2 handicap hurdle is the feature event on today's Newton Abbot card and it looks like it's going to be an ultra competitive event. You could make a case for almost every one of the thirteen runners but I'm going to side with David Pipes charge, Decoy.
This 7 year old looks like the stable third choice on jockey bookings. Stable jockey Tom Scudamore is on board the inform My Brother Sylvest, whilst Conor O Farrell rides the quirky Street Entertainer. Both have their chances but of the two I'd fancy My Brother Sylvest best following his win over fences off 1 pound higher 10 days ago at Ffos Las. Theoretically he should win off this mark, but as is so often the case he may not be able to translate his good form from fences to Hurdles. Street Entertainer is no doubt well handicapped but this trip looks like it will stretch him.

Decoy is the third Pipe runner. Kieran Edgar a very capable 7 pound claimer and he takes the mount on this horse for the third consecutive race. On the first occasion he rode him, the horse finished fourth at Worcester over 2miles 4furlongs. That race probably wasn't enough of a stamina test for this horse as he stayed on well late in the day to finish only beaten 14 and a half lengths fourth. On reviewing the race he wasn't gotten serious with until after the last, when the winner had already gone too far ahead.

On his most recent start and Edgar's second race on board, he finished third in a class 3 race over 2miles 6 furlongs at Cartmel. Again he stayed on late in the day to finish beaten by just 2 and a quarter lengths in third. These two runs under Edgar were off a rating of 125 but factoring in the jockeys claim the mark he actually ran off was 118. He's been raised 4 pounds following the last run to a mark of 129 but if you again factor in Edgars 7 pound claim he runs off 122.

Considering he won off 125 at Worcester on last July and at Cheltenham off 122 with a 3lb claimer on board in November 2011, Decoy looks pretty well handicapped. He also looks well handicapped from his last run against second favourite Church Field, Decoy has a five pound swing for a near 3 length beating so he should be able to overturn the form with that one. Decoy seems to be quite versatile with regards the ground as he has won on Soft and Good to Firm so the Good to Firm ground at Newton Abbot today should pose no problems.

Tactics are sure to be crucial in this race although Decoy has run well from the front and coming through from behind in the past I would rather see him bounced out to try and make all. His 2 previous wins have come when he was up there with the pace so I would like to see him ridden that way. If he is at the rear early on I don't think he will win but he may run into a place. The main danger in my eyes is his stable mate My Brother Sylvest, but if this lad gets to the front early I don't think anything will catch him.

UrbanSea

Was disappointed Moran Gra didn't win at the Curragh on Guineas day but the form is strong, and he has a 13lb swing with Ansgar. I've thought all year that this horse had a big handicap in him and hopefully today can be the day, took some of the 20s on offer yesterday.

Forgot he was actually second in this two years ago off 8lbs higher as well.

I was really taken with Francis of Assisi when he won a heavy ground handicap off a rating in the low 90s back at the start of the season on desperate ground, looked like a definite group horse. Really off putting that he hasn't been seen since so wouldn't be backing today but could leave him a nice price next time round assuming there is something to build on. Really nicely bred too, he should prefer the quicker ground, being out of a full sister to Henrythenavigator

UrbanSea

Serious cash for the Ballydoyle first choice in the opening race at the Curragh. Full sister to Irish Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor.

Hoping for a nice showing by Sparrow who has one of the best pedigrees you'd see. Half sister to Oaks runner up Wonder of Wonders, dam is a full sister to Galileo.

UrbanSea

That looked a very nice filly winning the first. Second was really eye catching too but may have been a little flattered by her proximity

UrbanSea

He may have won but think that was still a bit disappointing visually

sonnky

Big money for Street Entertainer in that handicap at Newton Abbot! I don't think he'll stay though!

sonnky

Curragh 4.45 - Karamaya 10/1 & Moran Gra 16/1

The Irish Cambridgeshire sees a field of 20 go to post in what promises another ultra competitive event. A lot of unexposed young horses battle the older brigade in this event ran over a mile. Further intrigue is added to the contest by 3 English raiders who have their sights set on the 60 thousand prize. It's very hard to pick just one to win this. I have chosen two horses who have a good chance based on their previous runs in big field handicaps.

The first one I have chosen is Karamaya an unexposed three year old trained by John Oxx. With just five runs to date she is surely still an improving filly.

She won on her debut on soft ground here last august. That race has worked out okay with the second scoring in a big 3 year old handicap at Naas off 81 in May. Many of the other runners in that race have since gone on to be placed in maidens and handicaps and there was a few winners as well.

Just two weeks later she was back at the Curragh for the group one Moyglare Stud Stakes. She ran a gallant race off the front for Niall McCullagh and was only passed inside the final furlong to finish beaten just over 6 lengths in sixth. A very good effort on just her second start.

Her final race last season saw her finish a not far beaten sixth in a handicap on unsuitably heavy ground at Naas. This was a decent run off a mark of 95 and as I've said already I don't think she liked the ground too well.

This season started with her finishing third at the Curragh when she was a staying on third over 7 furlongs. After 272 days off this was a solid run. 3 weeks ago today she was stepped up to a mile here and after coming from a wide draw she finished third beaten 3/4 of a length. She wandered around a bit up the straight and was bumped and she just couldn't get past the winner.

Today John Oxx puts on a pair of blinkers and these will help her focus late in the race. She's well handicapped off 95 and will like the good to firm ground. With a plum draw in stall 2 and an experienced jockey in Declan McDonagh on board, Karamaya can help to get John Oxx a welcome big race winner in a poor season for him.

The other horse I've gone for is the Joanna Morgan trained gelding Moran Gra. This 6 year old is well treated based on his run in this race two years ago. On that day he finished second to Castle Bar Sling off a mark of 103 under Ronan Whelan, who claimed 5lbs. On good ground he was just pipped close home by Fran Berry's magnificently timed run on Castle Bar Sling. He showed he was in good heart recently by finishing third on his penultimate run here in a big field handicap off today's mark.

A combination of good ground, a fair mark and being drawn well, under the very talented 3 pound claiming Ronnie Whelan, Moran Gra could go very close here at nice odds of 16/1.

fangee

My heads busted again.

Should I go all in on KIYOSHI or not ?

UrbanSea

All in on a 2 year old filly isn't something I'd be keen on

mailburner

took the 2s on kiyoshi myself

I see dance and dance runs in the 4.45
backed it at 15/2
hopefully with a bit of luck in running....

Someone mentioned it here recently (urban I think)

UrbanSea

Was myself mailburner, bit disappointed he didn't win last time out.


Novellist about to run at Baden Baden. 6s on is very very short even in this field

fangee

UrbanSea wrote: »

All in on a 2 year old filly isn't something I'd be keen on

Thanks Urban.

I had a tenth of my planned bet on it.

I would have cried.

UrbanSea

Nice to see Clive Britain have a really nice horse again

carpothepunk

Two Frank Spencer specials in two days. You're really spoiling us.

carpothepunk

I actually take that back, it wasn't as bad as I thought initially. Delighted for Rizeena anyway.

paddy no 11

5 horses tipped in this handicap on here alone, looks a lottery, have gone for the horse with the long name at the bottom of the weights myself

carpothepunk

Fancy Ansgar in the race myself. Though I don't think GLB was at his best the last day, Ansgar ran him mighty close, and was highly, highly tried in very good company. had a small punt at 18s last night.

UrbanSea

carpothepunk wrote: »

Fancy Ansgar in the race myself. Though I don't think GLB was at his best the last day, Ansgar ran him mighty close, and was highly, highly tried in very good company. had a small punt at 18s last night.

Moran Gra has a 13lbs swing for a 5 length beating, this is a good race,would be a very good performance to win off top weight

carpothepunk

9/2 to be placed on the blue. rude not to.

carpothepunk

I swear its not my money contracting Ansgars price on the blue here.. 25.5 - 18.0

carpothepunk

yih cute hooers. Nice profit anyway.

mailburner

disappointing by dance and dance with no real excuses

pegasus wouldnt have won from there

rossom

Great shout on Moran Gra lads. Was hungover today and wasn't bothered looking at the cards so just followed you lads and was richly rewarded.

Great write up Sonnky.

paddy no 11

well spotted lads had moran gra as well as my own nag, cheers

ft9

Did Moran Gra win?

ft9

It fcuking did!!!!

Urbansea

UrbanSea

Had you your 25 each way 9

UrbanSea

All in on that Henrythenavigator colt at Roscommon tomorrow

rossom

Having a small dabble on Takashi Kodama's 3 year old debutant Benkei 25/1 in the 5.45 Curragh. This very well bred son of Galileo is a full brother to Aidan O'Brien's Orchestra who followed home the highly promising Free Eagle on debut last month before winning comfortably on his 2nd start. His other full brother Mannheim was placed 3 times on the flat for O'Brien whilst his another half brother in Late Telegraph was pretty useful and won on debut. Not the most expensive purchase for a Galileo Colt, Kodama's 0-11 record in 3 year old Maiden's isn't very encouraging but Fran Berry's booking catches the eye given he is 1-3 for the yard. Could be very backward and need the run but worth a small stake at a big price.

UrbanSea

He's from a nice family rossom, his dam is a half sister to Irish Oaks winner Moonstone whose Galileo colt won the Derby trial at Lingfield this year. With a pedigree like that the fact he couldn't sell for 35,000 guineas is quite off putting he must be a terrible looker

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

He's from a nice family rossom, his dam is a half sister to Irish Oaks winner Moonstone whose Galileo colt won the Derby trial at Lingfield this year. With a pedigree like that the fact he couldn't sell for 35,000 guineas is quite off putting he must be a terrible looker

Yeah that was the issue but he was probably a very backward sort. That was 17 months ago so he could have filled in an awful lot since then. Worth the risk at 25s.

UrbanSea

If you backed the winner there 11/10 was a very nice price, just found it off putting he'd been off the track for so long

rossom

Benkei will win races but it may take a long time for him to get to a level where he is clued in enough to do so. Looked like he was just having the craic running in behind and don't think he had a clue what was going on.

UrbanSea

Looked like he wanted 3 miles and hurdles